(Chapter 22)The Greek government should make an emergency law, and force the creditor to replacement of new debt?


(Chapter 22)The Greek government should make an emergency law, and force the creditor to replacement of new debt?.

The troika of the European financial seems to have been exhausted?
歐洲金融三頭馬車,看來已經筋疲力盡?

“歐洲金融三頭馬車” (歐盟委員會、歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織)
" The troika of the European financial " (European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF))

本期論述,我希望用兩句中國成語作為開場白:這兩句成語都是古代中國人,處理棘手難題時的座右銘。
The current discourse, I hope that as the opening of two Chinese idioms.
The two idioms are ancient Chinese motto when dealing with difficult problems.

第一句中國成語是希望與看來已經筋疲力盡的歐洲金融三頭馬車,互相勉勵。
The first sentence of the Chinese idiom, hope, seems to have been exhausted the troika of the European financial and encourages each other.

第二句中國成語,是希望與希臘的領袖,互相勉勵。
The second sentence of the Chinese idiom, the leaders of Greece, and encourage each other.

1「釜底抽薪」:(fǔ dǐ chōu xīn)
Take away the fire wood from under the cauldron;
The meaning of the idiom is: take a drastic measure to deal with a situation.

2「揚湯止沸」:(yáng tāng zhǐ fèi)
反覆把滾水從鍋中舀出來,然後再倒回滾水裏,企圖用這種笨拙的方法,阻止鍋中的水繼續沸騰。
Repeatedly to ladle boiling water from the pot, then pour roll back the water in an attempt to use such a clumsy method, to prevent the pot of water to continue boiling.

成語的意思是:使用不妥當的方法,希望解決難題,實際上,不能從根本上化解危機。

The meaning of the idiom: the use of inappropriate methods to solve problems, in fact, cannot fundamentally resolve the crisis.
(一) 希臘政府接受了貸款,真的能夠帶領希臘人民,走上幸福的日子嗎?

(1)The Greek government accepted the loan and can really lead the Greek people, onto the happy days?

以下的消息來自:外參新聞網於2012-2-14 09:37的發佈:
The following message from: External Reference News release at 2012-2-14 09:37:

希臘政府經過修訂全新的緊縮方案,終於獲得議會支持。星期日當天,雅典出現了近年來最嚴重的騷亂。然而:備受緊縮之苦的希臘百姓,除了抗議,也只能進一步勒緊褲腰帶。

The Greek government revised the new austerity program, and finally gets parliamentary support.
Sunday, that day, Athens appeared in the worst unrest in recent years. Much the pain of the crunch, however: the Greek people, in addition to the protest, only to further tighten their belts.

希臘華人媒體《中希時報》總編輯汪鵬,發出訊息給(BBC)中文網記者說:從星期日下午3-4點鐘開始,一直到深夜,雅典市中心聚滿了憤怒的抗議者。

Greek Chinese-language media in the Hope Times Editor-in-chief Wang Pang sent a message to the (BBC) Chinese network, told reporters: from 3-4 o’clock Sunday afternoon until late at night, the center of Athens gathered full of angry protesters.

其中一小部分人:開始破壞公共設施和建築物。市中心的星巴克咖啡館等建築物被放火焚燒,有一些商鋪遭搶劫。不過,翌日早晨,雅典市中心已經完全恢復平靜。

A small portion of people: destroy public facilities and buildings. The center of a Starbucks coffee shop and other buildings were set on fire, some of the shops were looted. However, the following morning, the center of Athens has been completely restoring calm.
根據報導,騷亂中:雅典共有45座建築被焚燒,150間商店被搶砸。

According to the report, the riots: Athens, a total of 45 buildings were burned and 150 shops robbed smashing.

中希時報總編汪鵬在接受BBC中文網電話採訪時說:面對希臘政府,進一步削減開支,希臘人民感到無奈,只能進一步勒緊腰帶。

China – Greek Times editor-in-chief Wang Pang said in an interview with BBC News telephone interview: the Greek government, cut spending further, the Greek people feel helpless, only to further tighten their belts.
目前希臘國內,無論是私營機構或者是政府部門,都拼命進行裁員,失業率已經接近21%,政府削減開支,結果,癱瘓了許多公共服務。

Greek domestic private sector or government departments, and try desperately to layoffs, the unemployment rate has been close to 21 percent, government spending cuts as a result, paralyzed public services.
希臘公立醫院,以往,醫療費用報銷率很高,但是,如今能報銷的醫療費用,卻是一減再減。以往,希臘人民,只要參加繳納社會養老保險金,那麼,人民只要在政府公立醫院生孩子,政府會提供補助。目前,這一些補助,也是一減再減,甚至將來可能還會徹底取消。希臘中產階層的人民,本來積蓄已經不多,緊縮措施,更加令到他們的生活,陷入困境。

Greek public hospitals, in the past, medical expenses, reimbursement rates are high, but, now reimbursed medical expenses, but it is repeated reductions. In the past, the Greek people, as long as participation payment of social insurance fund the people in the public hospitals have children, the government will provide subsidies. Some subsidies, but also repeated reductions, and even that may be completely canceled. Greek middle class people, have been not much savings and austerity measures, more so of their lives, in trouble.
 
(二) 中產階級逐漸成為我們救助名單的主要族群:

(2)The middle class, and gradually become the main ethnic groups of our rescue list:

記者現場報導,這裡沒有地震,風災,暴雪;現場所見卻有許多,援助隊員以及慈善廚房,救援隊員忙於準備:供應各種食品與民生必需品,給予急切需要援助的雅典「新貧困族群」。

Reporters at the scene reported that there is no earthquake, hurricane, blizzard; site can see there are many aid players as well as the Soup Kitchen, the rescue team was busy preparing for: the supply of food and daily necessities, and give an urgent need for assistance to Athens’ new poverty populations.

這裡,許多希臘人民的財富與安樂,都已經給金融危機逐漸吞噬了,窮困好像瘟疫一般,竄爬到中產階級的人;那些無法撐過苦痛的,只能選擇走上窮途末路,過往曾經是玩樂天堂,現在已經失去光彩,希臘人的自殺率,如今攀升了一倍。

Here, many of the Greek people, wealth and well-being, have been gradually to the financial crisis engulfed the impoverished like the plague flee climbed to the middle class people; those who cannot get through the pain, can only choose to embark on a dead end, in the past used to be fun paradise lost their luster, the suicide rate among the Greeks, and now rising doubled.

(三)希臘今天的景況是怎樣造成的?希臘毀在權貴手裡 ?
(3)Greece today the situation is caused by? Greece destroyed in the rich and powerful hands?

寡頭政治(oligarchy)是一種政制形式,其中大部分甚至全部有效地掌握在一小撮特權階級手上(無論是財富、家族、軍事力量、殘暴或政治)。寡頭政治一詞,源自希臘,「oligo」就是「少數」,「arkhos」就是「統治」。

The oligarchy is a political system in the form, most of them, even all the power lies in the hands of a handful of the privileged class (regardless of wealth, family, military force, brutality or political). The word oligarchy, from Greece, an" olio “is the" minority “," arches “is the" rule “.

在新一屆希臘政府,努力向歐洲證明,希臘有決心削減膨脹的公共部門的同時,還必須做出決定,即是:要打擊危及希臘穩定的真正國內威脅,大範圍控制著希臘商業、金融、媒體,並實際上控制著政客的政治寡頭家族網絡。

In the new Greek government, and strive to prove to Europe that, Greece has determined to cut the bloated public sector must also make a decision, that is: To combat the real domestic threats that endanger Greece’s stability, a wide range of control of the Greek commercial, financial, the media, and in fact control the politicians, the oligarchs family network.

自帕潘德里歐擔任總理以來,他領導下的政府,一直努力打擊,習慣性的逃稅者。
Since Papandreou as prime minister, the government under his leadership has been their efforts to fight, habitual tax evaders.

帕潘德里歐在向議會發表的講話中,明確表示,他對一些希臘銀行的可疑行徑,存在擔憂。我們只能希望,由國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)、歐盟委員會(European Commission)以及歐洲央行(ECB)下令進行的貝萊德(Black Rock)調查,能夠為揭露金融體系的,當前問題提供適當的證據。

Papandreou, in his speech to Parliament, made it clear that he was suspicious acts of the Bank of Greece, there are concerns. We can only hope, Black Rock survey conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (European Commission) and European Central Bank (ECB) ordered to provide appropriate evidence to expose the financial system, current issues.

在上述講話中,帕潘德里歐還披露了一則爆炸性信息,希臘的銀行體系與一宗跨巴爾幹半島的燃油走私活動有關。據稱,估計該項走私活動,每年導致希臘有30億歐元的損失。他明確指出了這類犯罪活動,所造成的損害。只是沒有指明:哪些人或機構實際參與其中。

In the above statement, Papandreou also revealed explosive information, the Greek banking system and a fuel smuggling across the Balkans. Allegedly, it is estimated that the smuggling activities, lead to Greece every year there is a loss of 3 billion euros. He clearly pointed out the type of criminal activity, the damage caused. Just does not specify: What person or institution that is actually involved.
政治寡頭們,以兩種方式做出了回應。
首先,他們加快了慣常的現金輸出。去年,僅倫敦房地產市場,就出現了希臘資金暴增的情況。

First, they speed up the usual output of cash. Last year, only the real estate market in London, appeared in the Greek capital surge.
其次,他們動用旗下的媒體,抓住一切機會,指責和詆毀帕潘德里歐。他們知道,他是希臘政治精英中,最不會屈服的人。

Secondly, they are utilized by the media they control, to seize every opportunity, accusations and slander Papandreou. They know that he is in the Greek political elite, most will not yield.

政治寡頭們的目的十分明確:他們正在等待掠奪國有資產的機會,而在各種紓困計劃中,希臘政府,必須盡快對國有資產,進行私有化。

The purpose of the oligarchs is very clear: they are waiting for the opportunity to plunder state assets in a variety of relief programs, the Greek government, as soon as possible of state assets for privatization.

隨著希臘國內經濟大幅滑坡,過去兩年間,電力網絡和國家彩票機構,這些極具價值實體的國有資產,股價不斷走低。

Greek domestic economy plummeting over the past two years, the electricity network and the national lottery institutions, these valuable entity of the state-owned assets, stock prices continue to decline.
今年夏天,希臘電信運營商OTE將10%的股份以每股約7歐元的價格,出售給德國電信(Deutsche Telekom),價格比較3年前的股價降低75%。

This summer, the Greek telecommunications operators, 10% of the shares, the price of about € 7 per share, sold to Deutsche Telekom, the price comparison three years ago, the stock price reduced by 75%.

政治寡頭集團正在等候,用低至不到實際價值五分之一的價格,攫取這些資產,這些陰謀,對於國家而言,是糟糕的財務回報;但是,對於收購者而言,卻可以藉此,在5到10年的時間裡,大發橫財。

Political oligarchies are waiting to grab these assets down to less than the actual value of one fifth the price, the conspiracy, the country is the poor financial returns; However, for the acquirer, but it can take5-10 years, made a fortune.
這些政治寡頭集團,甚至希望,希臘退出歐元區,這樣他們就能運用,收藏在希臘以外地區的數十億歐元,利用德拉克馬的大幅貶值的機會,能夠使用極低亷的價格,購買超值的資產。

These political oligarchy, even hope, Greece out of the euro, so that they can use, collection of billions of euros outside Greece, the use of the drachma’s sharp depreciation of the opportunity to be able to use a very low price to buy the ultra-the value of the assets.
(德拉克馬於1832年已經是希臘的法定貨幣,直至2002年1月1日歐元正式流通所取代,1歐元等於340.750德拉克馬。)

(Drachmas as early as 1832, has been the lawful currency of Greece. Until January 1, 2002, replaced by the Euro, that is€ 1 is equal to 340.750 drachmas).
These political oligarchy, even hope, Greece out of the euro, so that they can use, collection of billions of euros outside Greece, the use of the drachma’s sharp depreciation of the opportunity to be able to use a very low price to buy the ultra-the value of the assets.

如果說:希臘和意大利的危機,給了我們什麽啟示的話,那就是歐盟(EU)放任了大面積的腐敗、犯罪和治理不當;不但東歐的求援國如此,一些西歐的核心成員國,亦都是相差不遠。

If we say: the crisis in Greece and Italy, gave us what the words of revelation, that is the European Union (EU) has allowed a large area of corruption, crime and poor governance; not only help the country so in Eastern Europe, some Western European core members also areas not far off.

當歐洲人向全世界宣講:歐洲的價值觀—透明、良好的治理和競爭的重要性。
卻常常忽視貝盧斯科尼(Berlusconi)對廣播媒體的壟斷、卡莫拉(Camorra)對坎帕尼亞省(Campania)政治的影響,以及希臘經濟,長期以來的用人唯親。

When the Europeans preach to the world: European values – transparency, good governance and the importance of competition.
However, Europeans are often ignored, the Berlusconi monopoly on broadcast media the Camorra political influence, the province of Campania, and the Greek economy, long-term nepotism.

西爾維奧•貝盧斯科尼。意大利第74,79,81任總理
除了在政界發展之外,還成立建築工程公司;收購傳媒;收購銀行;收購足球會。

Silvio Berlusconi. Italy 74, 79, 81 Prime Minister
In addition to political developments, Silvio Berlusconi has also set up a Construction Company; acquisition of the media; the acquisition of the bank; acquisition Football Club.

卡莫拉(Camorra)是義大利三大主要黑手黨勢力之一,活動範圍在那不勒斯地區。卡莫拉及時適應全球化潮流,最善於經營生意,是一個已徹底轉型的“自由主義黑手黨”。

Camorra is one of Italy’s three main Mafia, the scope of activities in the Naples area.
Camorra to adapt in a timely manner, the trend of globalization, the most adept at running a business, is a complete transformation of “liberal mafia".

如果說,我們能從歐洲面臨的災難中,得出什麽教訓的話,那就是:這些腐敗模式,必須被打破。否則,希臘和意大利,都將無法擺脫,使這些腐敗行為,得以猖獗發展。

If you draw what lessons we can learn from Europe is facing a disaster, then, that is: These corruption patterns must be broken. Otherwise, Greece and Italy, will not get rid of, so that these acts of corruption to be rampant development.

在我們以崇拜之心,向北歐尋找答案之前,請記住:這些德國公司,例如,西門子和富樂斯多,這些企業,向希臘的合作機構,支付數十億美元的賄賂金錢。他們支付這些賄賂,是為了獲取更大的豐厚利潤、他們使用價格虛增的合同,增加利潤,這些利益,其實是由希臘人民支付的,他們才是實實在在的納稅人。

When we worship the heart, to find the answer to the Nordic, please remember: these German companies, for example, Siemens and Forrestal, these companies pay billions of dollars in bribe money to the cooperation agencies in Greece. They pay bribe in order to obtain more lucrative profits, they use the contract prices inflated, increase profits, these benefits actually paid by the Greek people, they are the real taxpayers.
對希臘來說,關鍵的問題在於,在帕潘德里歐之後,希臘是否具備必要的政治人才和遠見,既推行徹底改革,又能夠復活腐敗的國家機構,並且阻止希臘最有錢有勢的人,繼續掠奪希臘的經濟成果。

For Greece, the crucial question is, after the Papandreou, Greece has the necessary political talent and vision, not only the implementation of a thorough reform, but also to the resurrection of the corruption of national institutions, and to prevent Greece, the most rich and powerful people continue to plunder the achievements of the Greek economy.
這或許也是:希臘的國際債權人們,是否願意去思考的問題。

Perhaps: Greece’s international creditors are willing to think of the problem.

我本人的猜想是:希臘目前,可能還不具備,上述全部改革條件,而人們只會把,帕潘德里歐的努力,視作拯救希臘最後的真正努力。

My own guess is: Greece, it may not yet have all of these reform conditions, people will only be regarded as Papandreou’s efforts to save the last real effort in Greece.

政治寡頭們,以兩種方式,預先做出了改革的回應。首先,他們加快了慣常的現金輸出。2011年,僅僅在倫敦房地產市場,就出現了,希臘資金暴增的狀況。

Oligarchs in two ways, pre-made reform response. First, they speed up the usual output of cash. 2011, just in the London real estate market, it appears, the situation exploded by the Greek capital.

其次,他們動用旗下的媒體爪牙,抓住一切機會,指責和詆毀帕潘德里歐。他們知道,他是希臘政治精英中,最不會接受屈服的人。

Secondly, the oligarchs, and resorts to its media minions to seize every opportunity, accusations and slander Papandreou. They know that he is the Greek political elite; most people will not be accepted yield.

政治寡頭們的目標,十分明確—他們正在等待,掠奪國有資產的機會。我覺得:希臘政府在各種紓困計劃中,必須盡早對國有資產,進行私有化計劃。

The goal of the oligarchs, very clear, they are waiting for the opportunity to plunder state assets. I think: the Greek government in a variety of relief programs must be state-owned assets, the privatization program as soon as possible.

我認為:希臘政府,雖然拿出了,符合「歐洲金融三頭馬車」貸款條件的緊縮措施,並且在國會過關了,但是,希臘的領袖,卻要應付國內激烈反對的現實,由廣泛的民眾罷工、示威,到內閣部長辭職,都是將難以平息的反對浪潮。

In my opinion: the Greek government took out, in line with the austerity measures of" The troika of the European financial “loan conditions, and in the Greek Parliament passed, but the leaders of Greece, have to cope with the reality of fierce opposition from a wide range of people in strikes, demonstrations, to the resignation of cabinet ministers, are implacable opposition from the wave.

我認為:歐洲「歐洲金融三頭馬車」共同訂下,希臘政府難於實行的緊縮措施,強加於希臘政府和人民,是一項重大錯誤的決定。這一項決定:其實只是為了,保護法國和德國銀行業的利益。而且:希臘國家和人民,付出了巨大犧牲之後,實際上,銀行業最後的利益,遲早都是「竹籃打水」。

In my opinion: the Greek government and “The troika of the European financial common set down, the Greek government is difficult to implement austerity measures, these measures, imposed on the Greek government and people, is a wrong decision. This is a decision: in fact, just to protect the interests of French and German banking. The Greek state and the people, great sacrifices, in fact, the banking industry last interest, sooner or later are Zhu lan da shui “.

中國成語「竹籃打水」意思是:利用竹子編成的籃子盛載水。表示:無論所作何事,結果都是沒有效果。
China idiom " zhú lán dǎ shuǐ " means: the use of bamboo woven basket containing water. Said: No matter what, made the result is no effect.

實際的情況是:希臘政府,能否切實執行,節儉的經濟政策,難免令人懷疑。希臘政府承諾的措施,真的能夠切實執行?

The actual situation is: Can the effective implementation of the Greek government, the thrift’s economic policies, it is inevitable doubt. The measures promised by the Greek government really can be effectively implemented?

尤其是2012年4月,希臘大選將近,在野政黨,絕對不會甘冒政治自殺的風險,與政府就緊縮政策合作。而大選後的新政府,又是否會恪守緊縮政策?一切都存在,諸多不確定的因素,何況,借貸方的苛刻,簡直是不可理喻。

April 2012, the Greek general election approaching, the opposition parties would never risked political suicide risk, tightening cooperation with the government. New government after the election, whether it will abide by the policy tightening? Everything that exists, many uncertainties, not to mention the lenders harsh, is simply incomprehensible.

實際上,希臘即使再獲得第三輪金錢援助,亦都拯救不了希臘,離開債務旋渦。

In fact, the Greek, even if once again the third round of monetary assistance, there is absolutely not save Greece to leave the debt vortex.

大量金錢援助,對於幫助希臘解脫債務束縛,只是「杯水車薪」而已,這不過是:新債冚舊債的續命藥,對於希臘一直在衰退的經濟,仍然無藥可醫。
中國成語「杯水車薪」意思是:用一杯的水,去撲救一輛被火燃燒着的木頭車子。比喻投放在解決難題的資源太小、太少的意思。

The Chinese idiom " bēi shuǐ chē xīn " means: to use a cup of water to put out a fire burning wood car. Analogy :To put in resources to solve the problem is too small, too little meaning.

希臘政府正在努力,避免國家的主權債務違約。希臘政府認為,一旦出現違約的情況,整個國家就將陷入巨大的經濟混亂。儘管,希臘兩大主要政黨,臨時結成緊急同盟,接受貸款。但是,國家也同時,接受了,當不能履行合約時,會被懲罰的措施。站在人民的角度來說,卻是非常令人感到痛楚的。只不過是:兩害相比較,選取害處較輕的選擇而已。

The Greek government is trying to avoid the country’s sovereign debt default. The Greek Government considers that, in the event of default, the entire country will fall into a huge economic disruption. , Greece, the two major political parties, temporary form emergency alliance, to accept the loan. However, the state also accepted, when unable to perform the contract will be punitive measures. Standing people’s point of view, it is very feel pain. Simply this: the lesser of two evils compared to select the harmful effects of a lighter choice.

由於希臘被鎖定在歐元區內—相對而言,希臘在現階段,沒有話語權。

Greece is locked in the euro zone – relatively speaking, Greece at this stage, there is no right to speak.

希臘只能接受:柏林和布魯塞爾,不分「青紅皂白」的節儉政策。

Greece can only accept: Berlin and Brussels,(indiscriminate white and black)thrifty policy.

「青紅皂白」:「qīng hóng zào bái」

中國成語「青紅皂白」的意思是:把青色、紅色、黑色、白色,四種不同的顏料,混合在一起。
比喻:不能夠分辨事情的由來或正在處理中的事情,究竟是正確還是是錯誤?
The Chinese idiom " qīng hóng zào bái " means: the blue, red, black, white, four different pigments, are mixed together.
The origin of the metaphor: not able to distinguish between things or things that are being processed, whether it is right or wrong?

希臘的經濟情況,非常惡劣,希臘被逼將最低工資標準,降低了20%。受到這一政策打壓的,將不僅僅是社會裏,最貧窮的人。因為國內所有的其他職位,都會用這個標準來做參考,因此,歐盟的不合理政策,註定將要拖慢,希臘未來經濟增長的幅度。

Greece’s economic situation is very bad, the Greek government, forced the minimum wage, reduce 20%. By a policy of suppression, not just the poorest people in society. Because all the other posts, do refer to this standard, therefore, unreasonable policies of the EU will no doubt slow down Greece’s economic growth rate.
其實:歐盟提出,這樣的一個,所謂幫助希臘,解脫債務的方案,從細節的項目看來,我總是覺得:歐洲已經做好了,拋棄希臘的準備。目前這一個拼湊而成的救援計畫,其實主要是為了贏得時間,將希臘隔離開來,然後,進行更加有秩序的違約安排,這樣就可以保護法國和德國銀行的利益;至於希臘人的命運,歐洲金融三頭馬車,已經不在考慮之列。

Truth perspective: the EU, such a so-called help Greece, relief program of debt. Author from the details of the view, I always think: Europe is ready to abandon the Greek preparation. This is a patchwork of rescue plan, in fact, in order to win some time, the Greek isolate, and then, more orderly breach of contract arrangements, so that the troika of the European financial, will be able to achieve the protection of France and Germany the interests of the bank; As for the fate of the Greeks, the three European financial carriage, has not in the agenda to consider within.

歐洲金融三頭馬車的安排,應該能夠提醒:義大利人、西班牙人、葡萄牙人、愛爾蘭人,甚至是法國人,不能夠不心存疑慮。這些國家的人民,實在有理由懷疑:與希臘人相似的命運,正在前方等待著自己。

European financial arrangements of the three-horse cart, should be able to remind: Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Irish, and even the Frenchman will have misgivings. People in these countries, there is strong reason to doubt: a similar fate with the Greeks, is waiting in front of their own.

但是,德國人,也不可能高枕無憂,他們遲早會意識到,當自己的重要出口市場,都在推行殘酷的節儉政策的時候,德國的經濟,也會受到摧殘。只是,時辰還未來到而已。

However, the German cannot sit back and relax; they will realize that sooner or later, when an important export market, in the implementation of the brutal thrift policy, the German economy, will also be devastated. But, the hour has not yet come.

(四)展望未來:
無論歐元區:將會維持統一性,繼續存在;還是經過,在不同程度的整合、分裂後,繼續存在。

(4)Looking to the future:
Whether the euro area: will be to maintain consistency, continue to exist; or after, in varying degrees of integration, after the split, continue to exist.

歐洲的國家,最好學習美國政府的榜樣,由國家的精英,研究出適合國情的辦法,用來刺激國家的經濟;每當國家遇到經濟困難時,能夠順利地採取應變的策略。

European countries, it is best to learn a model for the U.S. government by the elite of the country, to work out suitable conditions, be used to stimulate the country’s economy; Every time when the country encountered economic difficulties, to successfully adopt contingency strategies.

目前金融市場,全部聚焦在,歐盟對希臘的新一輪1300億貸款。可惜,這些貸款的先決條件是:強制逼使希臘政府,採用嚴苛的經濟改革,以及,須要大幅度,逼使債權人,自願性減債。希臘政府,要全部完成,歐洲金融三頭馬車的嚴厲規定,希臘政府才能夠獲得貸款。

Financial markets all focused on a new round of EU Greece 130 billion loan. Unfortunately, a prerequisite for these loans is: to force the Greek government to force the use of harsh economic reforms and the need to substantially compel creditors, voluntary debt reduction. Greek government to complete the harsh provisions of The troika of the European financial, the Greek government to be able to obtain loans.

其實,只要投資者,經過詳細分析貸款的內容,我們便會知道,貸款細節的規定,希臘政府根本無法實施,因為:任何一個國家的改革和財政緊縮,都會嚴重壓抑國內的內部需求,希臘目前使用,幣值高昂的歐羅,作為流通貨幣,怎麼能夠振興旅遊業?疲憊的經濟環境,會進一步令國家的稅收大幅度減少,政府財政,入不敷支,形成了惡性循環。

In fact, as long as the investor, after the contents of the detailed analysis of the loan, we will know the provisions of the loan details, the Greek government simply cannot be implemented, because: the country’s reform and fiscal austerity will severely depressed domestic internal demand. Greece because of the use of high currency Euro as currency in circulation how can revitalize the tourism industry? Tired of the economic environment, will further make a substantial reduction in state tax, government finance, to make end meet, forming a vicious cycle.

(五)筆者建議希臘政府,倘若真的有機會,收到大筆救助性貸款後,應該以各種不滿歐盟政治性安排為藉口,盡快自行退出歐元區。然後,利用國家貨幣貶值的行政措施,用來償還部份債務,最後:採取措施,刺激旅遊業,增加工業出口。

(5)I take the liberty to the Greek government proposed if the government really has the opportunity to receive a large amount of rescue loans, the Greek government should be based on a variety of dissatisfaction with the EU’s political arrangements as an excuse. Greece should be decided to withdraw from the euro as soon as possible. Finally: to take measures to boost tourism, increase in industrial exports.

希臘國內,有許多旅遊名勝古蹟,這些都是希臘的固有資產。希臘政府大可以與國際財團合作經營。希臘政府,只須要以出售長期經營權的方式,與國際財團合作,發展旅遊業,增加人民的就業機會,減少人民的戾氣。起碼能讓人民覺得,國家有了希望。官員們亦總好過,每天為了應付債務而身心疲憊。

Greek domestic, there are many tourist attractions; these are Greece’s inherent assets. The Greek government can operate in cooperation with the international consortium. Greek government, only to sell the right to operate with the international consortium, the development of tourism, increase the employment opportunities of the people reduce the hostility of the people. At least make people think, countries have hope. The officials also do not have to deal with the debt, mental and physical exhaustion.

德國、法國堅持希臘,繼續留在歐元區,德國和法國,其實是具有深層次的考慮。試想一想,現時的減債方案,隨時超過總欠債的70%,之後,又有可能,須要新一輪的貸款。對借款人來說,簡直有「掉錢落海」的風險。那麼,為何又須要繼續貸款?

(六)歐洲金融三頭馬車背後的動機:
(6)The troika of the European financial the motives behind:

一、 歐羅區沒有會員的退出機制,希臘的退出,必定會引發,世界各國,對歐羅區的銀行,進行大量訴訟,法律訴訟所花費的金錢,非常龐大。

1 The euro area does not have a mechanism for members to exit, the exit of Greece, must lead to the world, on the banks of the euro area, a lot of litigation, the money spent by the legal proceedings, very large.

二、 當希臘退出歐元區後,金融市場,絕對有可能會引發,一系列對葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利,主權債券的投機性沽盤,令歐洲金融三頭馬車,重新塑造金融穩定,涉及的花費,會更加龐大,日後,拯救的過程會更加艱難。

2 Greece out of the euro, financial markets, absolutely may lead to a series of Portugal, Spain and Italy, the sovereign bonds of speculative sell order, so that the troika of the European financial re-shaping the financial stability, the cost involved will be much larger in the future to save the process will be more difficult.

三、 歐洲金融三頭馬車盤算:如果歐羅區,能夠闖過這一難關,肯定會增加歐元區,全歐洲一體化的民意。結果:會吸引更多東歐國家加入歐元區,會員國家的協同效應會放大,令歐羅區統一財政的方案,成為更加理所當然,結果,會進一步鞏固德國和法國在歐元區的領導地位。

3 The troika of the European financial calculations: if the euro zone, able to break through this difficulty, would certainly increase the euro area, the opinion of the European integration. Results: will attract more Eastern European countries join the euro, the synergistic effect of the member countries will be enlarged, so that the unified financial programs of the euro zone, become more a matter of course, the results will further strengthen the leading position of Germany and France in the euro area.

(七)歐洲金融三頭馬車,援助希臘的計劃,存在的隱憂:

(7)The troika of the European financial plan for assistance to Greece, there are concerns:
20國集團(Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors),又稱G20,是一個國際經濟合作論壇,於1999年12月16日在德國柏林成立,屬於布雷頓森林體系框架內非正式對話的一種機制,由八國集團(美國、日本、德國、法國、英國、意大利、加拿大和俄羅斯)以及其餘十二個重要經濟體(歐盟、中國、巴西、印度、澳洲、墨西哥、南韓、土耳其、印尼、沙特阿拉伯、阿根廷和南非)組成。按照慣例,國際貨幣基金組織與世界銀行列席該組織的會議。
G20, also known as the G20, is an international forum for economic cooperation, set up in Berlin, Germany on December 16, 1999, is a mechanism for informal dialogue with the Bretton Woods system, within the framework of the G8 (United States, Japan, Germany France, Britain, Italy, Canada and Russia) as well as of the remaining 12 major economies (the European Union, China, Brazil, India, Australia, Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Argentina and South Africa).
In accordance with the practice, the IMF and World Bank will send representatives to attend the meeting of the organization.

G20國集團,還沒有為增加注資,世界銀行的計劃,達成共識。況且,國際貨幣基金組織,現時仍然尚未確實知道,會為希臘新一輪貸款,負擔的總金額。

擁有希臘國家債券的對沖基金及民間債權人,並未達成共識,願意對希臘債券票面價值,撇除 53.5%的協議。

希臘貸款合約中,清楚列出,希臘政府,必須執行經濟緊縮政策。但是,緊縮政策內容提到的,可持續性執行的分析報告中,令到德國、荷蘭及芬蘭等議會,對拯救希臘脫離債務,所須要負擔的風險,表示抗拒。因為,上述國家的領袖,須要承擔國內政治的壓力。
Greek loan agreements that clearly set out, the Greek government, you must perform austerity. However, the austerity policy content mentioned in the sustainability analysis of the implementation, so that the parliament of Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, to save Greece from the debt, and have to bear the risk, said resist. Because the leaders of the countries mentioned above, have to bear the pressure of domestic politics.

 希臘政府會在2012年 4月會舉行大選,大選過後,新政府會否恪守承諾,繼續實施經濟緊縮政策和結構性改革嗎?在這一個謎團裏,存在許多變數。
 Greek government in April 2012, will hold a general election after the election, the new government will honor its commitments and continue to implement economic austerity and structural reform? In a mystery, there are many variables.
 希臘國內,疲弱的經濟,能夠支持經濟緊縮政策和經濟改革嗎?
 Greek domestic, the weak economy, able to support economic austerity and economic reform?
 由於希臘政府,就算能夠獲得的貸款,大部份金錢,都只是用於還債,而用於政府日常開支的金錢,估計會少於20%。所以希臘政府,仍然有機會在2012年3月20日,出現債務違約。
The Greek government, even if able to obtain loans, most of the money, and are only used for debt for the day-to-day government spending money, estimated to be less than 20%. Greek government still has a chance to March 20, 2012 debt default.
 希臘人民,在緊縮政策下生活,會有激烈的不滿現實嗎?請大家不要忽略這個因素。
 Greek people living in austerity policy, there will be intense discontented? Please do not ignore this factor.
 歐元區的會員國家,在國民反援助情緒籠罩下,歐洲各國的國會,未來,還會繼續批准,新一輪的經濟援助嗎?
 Member countries of the euro area, in the shadow of the national anti-aid sentiment, Congress of the European countries, the future, will continue to the approval of a new round of economic aid?

(八)假如希臘繼續被鎖定在歐元區內,最終極的結果,都是須要破產收場。
If Greece continues to be locked within the euro zone, the ultimate results of all required bankruptcy end.
評級機構惠譽,在(The troika of the European financial)公佈換債詳情後,將該國信貸評級,進一步下降,由 CCC降至 C,惠譽指出:希臘有可能在短期內違約。(C級是全部評級等級中,八級中的第七級,第八級便是違約級別)

The rating agency Fitch announced the details of the convertible debt, Greece’s credit rating fell further, down by the CCC to C, and Fitch pointed out that: Greece may be a breach in the short term. (C-class all the rating scale, eight in the seventh grade, eighth grade is the default level)

有經濟分析師表示,希臘雖然與歐洲各國達成協議,但是,希臘最終都會走上破產之路。有評論引述 IMF的機密評估文件,文件內容指出: 2020年希臘債務,仍然會佔有,經濟輸出總額達160%,遠超議定目標的 120.5%。

Some economic analysts said Greece to reach an agreement with European countries, but Greece will eventually embark on the road of bankruptcy. Comments quoted by the IMF confidential assessment document, the contents of the documents: Greek debt in 2020, still will occupy. Economic output amounted to 160 percent, far more than 120.5% of the agreed targets.

希臘政府必須與私人債權人進行換債,成為該國獲救的重要一環。根據協議,假若對沖基金或銀行等私人債權人,自願進行換債,需承受 53.5%的撇債,這些撇債舉措,有助於希臘政府,減少所負擔的債務。倘若私人債權人或對沖基金公司,不願意置換新債,評級機構或有可能,宣佈希臘違約,觸發信貸違約掉期( CDS)賠償。

The Greek government must exchange debt with private creditors, become an important part of the country were rescued. Under the agreement, if the hedge funds or banks and other private creditors, voluntary exchange debt, private creditors have to bear 53.5% of written off debt, write debt initiatives to help the Greek government, to reduce the debt burden. If private creditors or hedge fund company, unwilling to replacement of new debt, the rating agencies, or likely to announce a Greek default, triggering credit default swaps (CDS) compensation.

(九)歐洲金融三頭馬車規定:希臘政府要說服95%私人債權人或對沖基金公司,自願接受削減債及置換新債,才能獲發貸款。這樣的批核條款,其實是一項不可能完成的任務。

The troika of the European financial provisions: the Greek government to convince 95% of private creditors or hedge fund company, to accept voluntary debt reduction and replacement of new debt to be issued loans. Terms of approval, in fact, is an impossible task.
親愛的讀者們,試問:假如您是債權人,您已經為持有的希臘國債,購買了信貸違約掉期(CDS)保險,只要希臘政府,不能夠在限期到達時,歸還借款,您便可以向保險公司,要求全數金額的賠償,您會輕易答應自動削減債款及進行舊債置換新債嗎?
除非…(這裡的空白,留給讀者們無限的想像)……。

Dear readers, let me ask you: If you are a creditor, you have already purchased credit default swaps (CDS), insurance of Greek government bonds held by.
Greek government cannot be in the reach of the deadline, the return of the borrower, you will be able to require the full amount of compensation to the insurance company, and will you easily agree to automatically cut debt and new debt for old debt replacement?

Unless …… (left blank, leaving to the imagination of readers) ……。

(十)過去一星期,金融市場,雖然聚焦在歐洲,但是:我希親愛的讀者,要注意日元的走勢。我認為:日本的債務已經佔GDP逾200%,比較希臘債務佔經濟輸出達 160%還要高,在短期內,美元兌日元會直逼100。
(10)The past week, financial markets, although the focus in Europe, but: I hope, dear reader, to pay attention to the trend of the Japanese Yuan. In my opinion: Japan’s debt has more than 200% of GDP to compare the Greek debt, accounting for the economic output of 160% is even higher. In the short term, the U.S. dollar against the Yen would be almost equal to 100.

這篇博客完成於24-02-2012香港時間上午20:15 p.m.
現時,美元兌日本元的匯價是:80.50

This blog is completed on 24-02-2012 Hong Kong time, 20:15 p.m.m
At present, the U.S. dollar against the Japanese exchange rate is: 80.50

根據黃金分割比率顯示:80.55是黃金分割比率的0.5%,倘若匯價趨向,超越80.55。並且:維持上述價位一段日子,便可以理解為:日本元,開始有下跌趨勢。

According to the analysis of the golden ratio: 80.55 have been reached, the golden ratio to 0.5% position.
Assumptions: the U.S. dollar against the Japanese Yuan exchange rate, beyond the 80.55 price. And maintain the above price for some days, they can be understood as: Japanese Yuan started a downward trend.

日本元要回復上升趨勢,須要符合下列條件:
1歐洲債務危機,進一步惡化。
2避險情緒高漲。
3黃金價格下跌。

Japan Yuan to reply to an upward trend, the need to comply with the following conditions:
1 European debt crisis, continue to deteriorate further.
2 Financial markets, rising risk aversion.
3 Gold prices fell.

(十一)自然界會有生存和死亡定律。這種定律,也存在「金融界」內。人類生理倒閉是死亡;財務倒閉是破產。買債券最怕是發行債券的機構「執笠」;買股票最怕上市公司「執笠」;買貨幣最怕政府「破產」。日本的債務,佔經濟輸出總額,達到 200%以上,債務信用違約,是遲早都會出現的事實,日元怎麼能夠避免,大幅度貶值?

(11)The natural world, there will be life and death’s law. This life and death laws, are also present in the “financial sector". The collapse of human physiology is death; personal financial collapse of the bankrupt. To buy bonds is most afraid of the bond issuer “winding up"; to buy stocks, the worst fear is that the listed company “winding up"; to buy the currency are most afraid of the government “bankruptcy." Japan’s debt, accounting for the total economic output, more than 200% debt credit default, sooner or later appear, Yen how to avoid, not devaluation?
Yen how to avoid the devaluation?

(十二)但是,親愛的讀者要留意:由於金融市場的風險情緒(Risk-on)與(Risk-off)避險情緒,頻繁地交替出現,假設:您對前景持悲觀的看法時,便要留意進入市場時,價位的選擇。

(12)But, my dear readers to note: due to financial market risk sentiment and risk aversion, frequently alternating.
Hypothesis: when you hold a pessimistic view of prospects for the future, we must pay attention to enter the market, select the appropriate price.

我認為短期內:歐元兌美元,會上升到1.35;英鎊兌美元,會上升到1.60;澳元兌美元,會上升到1.10;紐元兌美元,會上升到0.86;加拿大元兌美元,會上升到0.98;美元兌瑞士法郎,會上升到0.89;石油會見到120美元;黃金會見到1830美元。

I consider the short term (three months) the euro against the U.S. dollar, to rise to 1.34; the pound against the dollar, to rise to 1.60; the Australian dollar to rise to 1.10; New Zealand dollar, to rise to 0.86; the Canadian dollar against rise to 0.98; the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc to rise to 0.90; oil prices will see $ 120; the price of gold will see $ 1,800.

當到達這些價位時,才考慮進入市場。切勿「輕舉妄動」,避免「坐艇」 兼「虧損」。

When you reach the price of these goals is the time to consider entering the market. “Do not act rashly, to avoid the" boat ride “and" loss “.

部份參考資料:
鉅亨網陳怡君
MarketWatch專欄作家德拉梅德(Darrell Delamaide)
外參新聞網
作家 米沙•格倫尼 為英國《金融時報》撰稿

References:
Kui Heng network Yi-Chun Chen
MarketWatch columnist Della Dmitry (Darrell Delamaide)
External Reference News
Mischa – Ge Lunni
筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

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(Chapter 22)The Greek government should make an emergency law, and force the creditor to replacement of new debt?


(Chapter 22)希臘政府應該訂立緊急法律,強逼債主置換新債?
(Chapter 22)The Greek government should make an emergency law, and force the creditor to replacement of new debt?
The troika of the European financial seems to have been exhausted?
歐洲金融三頭馬車,看來已經筋疲力盡?

“歐洲金融三頭馬車” (歐盟委員會、歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織)
" The troika of the European financial " (European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF))

本期論述,我希望用兩句中國成語作為開場白:這兩句成語都是古代中國人,處理棘手難題時的座右銘。
The current discourse, I hope that as the opening of two Chinese idioms.
The two idioms are ancient Chinese motto when dealing with difficult problems.

第一句中國成語是希望與看來已經筋疲力盡的歐洲金融三頭馬車,互相勉勵。
The first sentence of the Chinese idiom, hope, seems to have been exhausted the troika of the European financial and encourages each other.

第二句中國成語,是希望與希臘的領袖,互相勉勵。
The second sentence of the Chinese idiom, the leaders of Greece, and encourage each other.

1「釜底抽薪」:(fǔ dǐ chōu xīn)
Take away the fire wood from under the cauldron;
The meaning of the idiom is: take a drastic measure to deal with a situation.

2「揚湯止沸」:(yáng tāng zhǐ fèi)
反覆把滾水從鍋中舀出來,然後再倒回滾水裏,企圖用這種笨拙的方法,阻止鍋中的水繼續沸騰。
Repeatedly to ladle boiling water from the pot, then pour roll back the water in an attempt to use such a clumsy method, to prevent the pot of water to continue boiling.

成語的意思是:使用不妥當的方法,希望解決難題,實際上,不能從根本上化解危機。

The meaning of the idiom: the use of inappropriate methods to solve problems, in fact, cannot fundamentally resolve the crisis.
(一) 希臘政府接受了貸款,真的能夠帶領希臘人民,走上幸福的日子嗎?

(1)The Greek government accepted the loan and can really lead the Greek people, onto the happy days?

以下的消息來自:外參新聞網於2012-2-14 09:37的發佈:
The following message from: External Reference News release at 2012-2-14 09:37:

希臘政府經過修訂全新的緊縮方案,終於獲得議會支持。星期日當天,雅典出現了近年來最嚴重的騷亂。然而:備受緊縮之苦的希臘百姓,除了抗議,也只能進一步勒緊褲腰帶。

The Greek government revised the new austerity program, and finally gets parliamentary support.
Sunday, that day, Athens appeared in the worst unrest in recent years. Much the pain of the crunch, however: the Greek people, in addition to the protest, only to further tighten their belts.

希臘華人媒體《中希時報》總編輯汪鵬,發出訊息給(BBC)中文網記者說:從星期日下午3-4點鐘開始,一直到深夜,雅典市中心聚滿了憤怒的抗議者。

Greek Chinese-language media in the Hope Times Editor-in-chief Wang Pang sent a message to the (BBC) Chinese network, told reporters: from 3-4 o’clock Sunday afternoon until late at night, the center of Athens gathered full of angry protesters.

其中一小部分人:開始破壞公共設施和建築物。市中心的星巴克咖啡館等建築物被放火焚燒,有一些商鋪遭搶劫。不過,翌日早晨,雅典市中心已經完全恢復平靜。

A small portion of people: destroy public facilities and buildings. The center of a Starbucks coffee shop and other buildings were set on fire, some of the shops were looted. However, the following morning, the center of Athens has been completely restoring calm.
根據報導,騷亂中:雅典共有45座建築被焚燒,150間商店被搶砸。

According to the report, the riots: Athens, a total of 45 buildings were burned and 150 shops robbed smashing.

中希時報總編汪鵬在接受BBC中文網電話採訪時說:面對希臘政府,進一步削減開支,希臘人民感到無奈,只能進一步勒緊腰帶。

China – Greek Times editor-in-chief Wang Pang said in an interview with BBC News telephone interview: the Greek government, cut spending further, the Greek people feel helpless, only to further tighten their belts.
目前希臘國內,無論是私營機構或者是政府部門,都拼命進行裁員,失業率已經接近21%,政府削減開支,結果,癱瘓了許多公共服務。

Greek domestic private sector or government departments, and try desperately to layoffs, the unemployment rate has been close to 21 percent, government spending cuts as a result, paralyzed public services.
希臘公立醫院,以往,醫療費用報銷率很高,但是,如今能報銷的醫療費用,卻是一減再減。以往,希臘人民,只要參加繳納社會養老保險金,那麼,人民只要在政府公立醫院生孩子,政府會提供補助。目前,這一些補助,也是一減再減,甚至將來可能還會徹底取消。希臘中產階層的人民,本來積蓄已經不多,緊縮措施,更加令到他們的生活,陷入困境。

Greek public hospitals, in the past, medical expenses, reimbursement rates are high, but, now reimbursed medical expenses, but it is repeated reductions. In the past, the Greek people, as long as participation payment of social insurance fund the people in the public hospitals have children, the government will provide subsidies. Some subsidies, but also repeated reductions, and even that may be completely canceled. Greek middle class people, have been not much savings and austerity measures, more so of their lives, in trouble.
 
(二) 中產階級逐漸成為我們救助名單的主要族群:

(2)The middle class, and gradually become the main ethnic groups of our rescue list:

記者現場報導,這裡沒有地震,風災,暴雪;現場所見卻有許多,援助隊員以及慈善廚房,救援隊員忙於準備:供應各種食品與民生必需品,給予急切需要援助的雅典「新貧困族群」。

Reporters at the scene reported that there is no earthquake, hurricane, blizzard; site can see there are many aid players as well as the Soup Kitchen, the rescue team was busy preparing for: the supply of food and daily necessities, and give an urgent need for assistance to Athens’ new poverty populations.

這裡,許多希臘人民的財富與安樂,都已經給金融危機逐漸吞噬了,窮困好像瘟疫一般,竄爬到中產階級的人;那些無法撐過苦痛的,只能選擇走上窮途末路,過往曾經是玩樂天堂,現在已經失去光彩,希臘人的自殺率,如今攀升了一倍。

Here, many of the Greek people, wealth and well-being, have been gradually to the financial crisis engulfed the impoverished like the plague flee climbed to the middle class people; those who cannot get through the pain, can only choose to embark on a dead end, in the past used to be fun paradise lost their luster, the suicide rate among the Greeks, and now rising doubled.

(三)希臘今天的景況是怎樣造成的?希臘毀在權貴手裡 ?
(3)Greece today the situation is caused by? Greece destroyed in the rich and powerful hands?

寡頭政治(oligarchy)是一種政制形式,其中大部分甚至全部有效地掌握在一小撮特權階級手上(無論是財富、家族、軍事力量、殘暴或政治)。寡頭政治一詞,源自希臘,「oligo」就是「少數」,「arkhos」就是「統治」。

The oligarchy is a political system in the form, most of them, even all the power lies in the hands of a handful of the privileged class (regardless of wealth, family, military force, brutality or political). The word oligarchy, from Greece, an" olio “is the" minority “," arches “is the" rule “.

在新一屆希臘政府,努力向歐洲證明,希臘有決心削減膨脹的公共部門的同時,還必須做出決定,即是:要打擊危及希臘穩定的真正國內威脅,大範圍控制著希臘商業、金融、媒體,並實際上控制著政客的政治寡頭家族網絡。

In the new Greek government, and strive to prove to Europe that, Greece has determined to cut the bloated public sector must also make a decision, that is: To combat the real domestic threats that endanger Greece’s stability, a wide range of control of the Greek commercial, financial, the media, and in fact control the politicians, the oligarchs family network.

自帕潘德里歐擔任總理以來,他領導下的政府,一直努力打擊,習慣性的逃稅者。
Since Papandreou as prime minister, the government under his leadership has been their efforts to fight, habitual tax evaders.

帕潘德里歐在向議會發表的講話中,明確表示,他對一些希臘銀行的可疑行徑,存在擔憂。我們只能希望,由國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)、歐盟委員會(European Commission)以及歐洲央行(ECB)下令進行的貝萊德(Black Rock)調查,能夠為揭露金融體系的,當前問題提供適當的證據。

Papandreou, in his speech to Parliament, made it clear that he was suspicious acts of the Bank of Greece, there are concerns. We can only hope, Black Rock survey conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (European Commission) and European Central Bank (ECB) ordered to provide appropriate evidence to expose the financial system, current issues.

在上述講話中,帕潘德里歐還披露了一則爆炸性信息,希臘的銀行體系與一宗跨巴爾幹半島的燃油走私活動有關。據稱,估計該項走私活動,每年導致希臘有30億歐元的損失。他明確指出了這類犯罪活動,所造成的損害。只是沒有指明:哪些人或機構實際參與其中。

In the above statement, Papandreou also revealed explosive information, the Greek banking system and a fuel smuggling across the Balkans. Allegedly, it is estimated that the smuggling activities, lead to Greece every year there is a loss of 3 billion euros. He clearly pointed out the type of criminal activity, the damage caused. Just does not specify: What person or institution that is actually involved.
政治寡頭們,以兩種方式做出了回應。
首先,他們加快了慣常的現金輸出。去年,僅倫敦房地產市場,就出現了希臘資金暴增的情況。

First, they speed up the usual output of cash. Last year, only the real estate market in London, appeared in the Greek capital surge.
其次,他們動用旗下的媒體,抓住一切機會,指責和詆毀帕潘德里歐。他們知道,他是希臘政治精英中,最不會屈服的人。

Secondly, they are utilized by the media they control, to seize every opportunity, accusations and slander Papandreou. They know that he is in the Greek political elite, most will not yield.

政治寡頭們的目的十分明確:他們正在等待掠奪國有資產的機會,而在各種紓困計劃中,希臘政府,必須盡快對國有資產,進行私有化。

The purpose of the oligarchs is very clear: they are waiting for the opportunity to plunder state assets in a variety of relief programs, the Greek government, as soon as possible of state assets for privatization.

隨著希臘國內經濟大幅滑坡,過去兩年間,電力網絡和國家彩票機構,這些極具價值實體的國有資產,股價不斷走低。

Greek domestic economy plummeting over the past two years, the electricity network and the national lottery institutions, these valuable entity of the state-owned assets, stock prices continue to decline.
今年夏天,希臘電信運營商OTE將10%的股份以每股約7歐元的價格,出售給德國電信(Deutsche Telekom),價格比較3年前的股價降低75%。

This summer, the Greek telecommunications operators, 10% of the shares, the price of about € 7 per share, sold to Deutsche Telekom, the price comparison three years ago, the stock price reduced by 75%.

政治寡頭集團正在等候,用低至不到實際價值五分之一的價格,攫取這些資產,這些陰謀,對於國家而言,是糟糕的財務回報;但是,對於收購者而言,卻可以藉此,在5到10年的時間裡,大發橫財。

Political oligarchies are waiting to grab these assets down to less than the actual value of one fifth the price, the conspiracy, the country is the poor financial returns; However, for the acquirer, but it can take5-10 years, made a fortune.
這些政治寡頭集團,甚至希望,希臘退出歐元區,這樣他們就能運用,收藏在希臘以外地區的數十億歐元,利用德拉克馬的大幅貶值的機會,能夠使用極低亷的價格,購買超值的資產。

These political oligarchy, even hope, Greece out of the euro, so that they can use, collection of billions of euros outside Greece, the use of the drachma’s sharp depreciation of the opportunity to be able to use a very low price to buy the ultra-the value of the assets.
(德拉克馬於1832年已經是希臘的法定貨幣,直至2002年1月1日歐元正式流通所取代,1歐元等於340.750德拉克馬。)

(Drachmas as early as 1832, has been the lawful currency of Greece. Until January 1, 2002, replaced by the Euro, that is€ 1 is equal to 340.750 drachmas).
These political oligarchy, even hope, Greece out of the euro, so that they can use, collection of billions of euros outside Greece, the use of the drachma’s sharp depreciation of the opportunity to be able to use a very low price to buy the ultra-the value of the assets.

如果說:希臘和意大利的危機,給了我們什麽啟示的話,那就是歐盟(EU)放任了大面積的腐敗、犯罪和治理不當;不但東歐的求援國如此,一些西歐的核心成員國,亦都是相差不遠。

If we say: the crisis in Greece and Italy, gave us what the words of revelation, that is the European Union (EU) has allowed a large area of corruption, crime and poor governance; not only help the country so in Eastern Europe, some Western European core members also areas not far off.

當歐洲人向全世界宣講:歐洲的價值觀—透明、良好的治理和競爭的重要性。
卻常常忽視貝盧斯科尼(Berlusconi)對廣播媒體的壟斷、卡莫拉(Camorra)對坎帕尼亞省(Campania)政治的影響,以及希臘經濟,長期以來的用人唯親。

When the Europeans preach to the world: European values – transparency, good governance and the importance of competition.
However, Europeans are often ignored, the Berlusconi monopoly on broadcast media the Camorra political influence, the province of Campania, and the Greek economy, long-term nepotism.

西爾維奧•貝盧斯科尼。意大利第74,79,81任總理
除了在政界發展之外,還成立建築工程公司;收購傳媒;收購銀行;收購足球會。

Silvio Berlusconi. Italy 74, 79, 81 Prime Minister
In addition to political developments, Silvio Berlusconi has also set up a Construction Company; acquisition of the media; the acquisition of the bank; acquisition Football Club.

卡莫拉(Camorra)是義大利三大主要黑手黨勢力之一,活動範圍在那不勒斯地區。卡莫拉及時適應全球化潮流,最善於經營生意,是一個已徹底轉型的“自由主義黑手黨”。

Camorra is one of Italy’s three main Mafia, the scope of activities in the Naples area.
Camorra to adapt in a timely manner, the trend of globalization, the most adept at running a business, is a complete transformation of “liberal mafia".

如果說,我們能從歐洲面臨的災難中,得出什麽教訓的話,那就是:這些腐敗模式,必須被打破。否則,希臘和意大利,都將無法擺脫,使這些腐敗行為,得以猖獗發展。

If you draw what lessons we can learn from Europe is facing a disaster, then, that is: These corruption patterns must be broken. Otherwise, Greece and Italy, will not get rid of, so that these acts of corruption to be rampant development.

在我們以崇拜之心,向北歐尋找答案之前,請記住:這些德國公司,例如,西門子和富樂斯多,這些企業,向希臘的合作機構,支付數十億美元的賄賂金錢。他們支付這些賄賂,是為了獲取更大的豐厚利潤、他們使用價格虛增的合同,增加利潤,這些利益,其實是由希臘人民支付的,他們才是實實在在的納稅人。

When we worship the heart, to find the answer to the Nordic, please remember: these German companies, for example, Siemens and Forrestal, these companies pay billions of dollars in bribe money to the cooperation agencies in Greece. They pay bribe in order to obtain more lucrative profits, they use the contract prices inflated, increase profits, these benefits actually paid by the Greek people, they are the real taxpayers.
對希臘來說,關鍵的問題在於,在帕潘德里歐之後,希臘是否具備必要的政治人才和遠見,既推行徹底改革,又能夠復活腐敗的國家機構,並且阻止希臘最有錢有勢的人,繼續掠奪希臘的經濟成果。

For Greece, the crucial question is, after the Papandreou, Greece has the necessary political talent and vision, not only the implementation of a thorough reform, but also to the resurrection of the corruption of national institutions, and to prevent Greece, the most rich and powerful people continue to plunder the achievements of the Greek economy.
這或許也是:希臘的國際債權人們,是否願意去思考的問題。

Perhaps: Greece’s international creditors are willing to think of the problem.

我本人的猜想是:希臘目前,可能還不具備,上述全部改革條件,而人們只會把,帕潘德里歐的努力,視作拯救希臘最後的真正努力。

My own guess is: Greece, it may not yet have all of these reform conditions, people will only be regarded as Papandreou’s efforts to save the last real effort in Greece.

政治寡頭們,以兩種方式,預先做出了改革的回應。首先,他們加快了慣常的現金輸出。2011年,僅僅在倫敦房地產市場,就出現了,希臘資金暴增的狀況。

Oligarchs in two ways, pre-made reform response. First, they speed up the usual output of cash. 2011, just in the London real estate market, it appears, the situation exploded by the Greek capital.

其次,他們動用旗下的媒體爪牙,抓住一切機會,指責和詆毀帕潘德里歐。他們知道,他是希臘政治精英中,最不會接受屈服的人。

Secondly, the oligarchs, and resorts to its media minions to seize every opportunity, accusations and slander Papandreou. They know that he is the Greek political elite; most people will not be accepted yield.

政治寡頭們的目標,十分明確—他們正在等待,掠奪國有資產的機會。我覺得:希臘政府在各種紓困計劃中,必須盡早對國有資產,進行私有化計劃。

The goal of the oligarchs, very clear, they are waiting for the opportunity to plunder state assets. I think: the Greek government in a variety of relief programs must be state-owned assets, the privatization program as soon as possible.

我認為:希臘政府,雖然拿出了,符合「歐洲金融三頭馬車」貸款條件的緊縮措施,並且在國會過關了,但是,希臘的領袖,卻要應付國內激烈反對的現實,由廣泛的民眾罷工、示威,到內閣部長辭職,都是將難以平息的反對浪潮。

In my opinion: the Greek government took out, in line with the austerity measures of" The troika of the European financial “loan conditions, and in the Greek Parliament passed, but the leaders of Greece, have to cope with the reality of fierce opposition from a wide range of people in strikes, demonstrations, to the resignation of cabinet ministers, are implacable opposition from the wave.

我認為:歐洲「歐洲金融三頭馬車」共同訂下,希臘政府難於實行的緊縮措施,強加於希臘政府和人民,是一項重大錯誤的決定。這一項決定:其實只是為了,保護法國和德國銀行業的利益。而且:希臘國家和人民,付出了巨大犧牲之後,實際上,銀行業最後的利益,遲早都是「竹籃打水」。

In my opinion: the Greek government and “The troika of the European financial common set down, the Greek government is difficult to implement austerity measures, these measures, imposed on the Greek government and people, is a wrong decision. This is a decision: in fact, just to protect the interests of French and German banking. The Greek state and the people, great sacrifices, in fact, the banking industry last interest, sooner or later are Zhu lan da shui “.

中國成語「竹籃打水」意思是:利用竹子編成的籃子盛載水。表示:無論所作何事,結果都是沒有效果。
China idiom " zhú lán dǎ shuǐ " means: the use of bamboo woven basket containing water. Said: No matter what, made the result is no effect.

實際的情況是:希臘政府,能否切實執行,節儉的經濟政策,難免令人懷疑。希臘政府承諾的措施,真的能夠切實執行?

The actual situation is: Can the effective implementation of the Greek government, the thrift’s economic policies, it is inevitable doubt. The measures promised by the Greek government really can be effectively implemented?

尤其是2012年4月,希臘大選將近,在野政黨,絕對不會甘冒政治自殺的風險,與政府就緊縮政策合作。而大選後的新政府,又是否會恪守緊縮政策?一切都存在,諸多不確定的因素,何況,借貸方的苛刻,簡直是不可理喻。

April 2012, the Greek general election approaching, the opposition parties would never risked political suicide risk, tightening cooperation with the government. New government after the election, whether it will abide by the policy tightening? Everything that exists, many uncertainties, not to mention the lenders harsh, is simply incomprehensible.

實際上,希臘即使再獲得第三輪金錢援助,亦都拯救不了希臘,離開債務旋渦。

In fact, the Greek, even if once again the third round of monetary assistance, there is absolutely not save Greece to leave the debt vortex.

大量金錢援助,對於幫助希臘解脫債務束縛,只是「杯水車薪」而已,這不過是:新債冚舊債的續命藥,對於希臘一直在衰退的經濟,仍然無藥可醫。
中國成語「杯水車薪」意思是:用一杯的水,去撲救一輛被火燃燒着的木頭車子。比喻投放在解決難題的資源太小、太少的意思。

The Chinese idiom " bēi shuǐ chē xīn " means: to use a cup of water to put out a fire burning wood car. Analogy :To put in resources to solve the problem is too small, too little meaning.

希臘政府正在努力,避免國家的主權債務違約。希臘政府認為,一旦出現違約的情況,整個國家就將陷入巨大的經濟混亂。儘管,希臘兩大主要政黨,臨時結成緊急同盟,接受貸款。但是,國家也同時,接受了,當不能履行合約時,會被懲罰的措施。站在人民的角度來說,卻是非常令人感到痛楚的。只不過是:兩害相比較,選取害處較輕的選擇而已。

The Greek government is trying to avoid the country’s sovereign debt default. The Greek Government considers that, in the event of default, the entire country will fall into a huge economic disruption. , Greece, the two major political parties, temporary form emergency alliance, to accept the loan. However, the state also accepted, when unable to perform the contract will be punitive measures. Standing people’s point of view, it is very feel pain. Simply this: the lesser of two evils compared to select the harmful effects of a lighter choice.

由於希臘被鎖定在歐元區內—相對而言,希臘在現階段,沒有話語權。

Greece is locked in the euro zone – relatively speaking, Greece at this stage, there is no right to speak.

希臘只能接受:柏林和布魯塞爾,不分「青紅皂白」的節儉政策。

Greece can only accept: Berlin and Brussels,(indiscriminate white and black)thrifty policy.

「青紅皂白」:「qīng hóng zào bái」

中國成語「青紅皂白」的意思是:把青色、紅色、黑色、白色,四種不同的顏料,混合在一起。
比喻:不能夠分辨事情的由來或正在處理中的事情,究竟是正確還是是錯誤?
The Chinese idiom " qīng hóng zào bái " means: the blue, red, black, white, four different pigments, are mixed together.
The origin of the metaphor: not able to distinguish between things or things that are being processed, whether it is right or wrong?

希臘的經濟情況,非常惡劣,希臘被逼將最低工資標準,降低了20%。受到這一政策打壓的,將不僅僅是社會裏,最貧窮的人。因為國內所有的其他職位,都會用這個標準來做參考,因此,歐盟的不合理政策,註定將要拖慢,希臘未來經濟增長的幅度。

Greece’s economic situation is very bad, the Greek government, forced the minimum wage, reduce 20%. By a policy of suppression, not just the poorest people in society. Because all the other posts, do refer to this standard, therefore, unreasonable policies of the EU will no doubt slow down Greece’s economic growth rate.
其實:歐盟提出,這樣的一個,所謂幫助希臘,解脫債務的方案,從細節的項目看來,我總是覺得:歐洲已經做好了,拋棄希臘的準備。目前這一個拼湊而成的救援計畫,其實主要是為了贏得時間,將希臘隔離開來,然後,進行更加有秩序的違約安排,這樣就可以保護法國和德國銀行的利益;至於希臘人的命運,歐洲金融三頭馬車,已經不在考慮之列。

Truth perspective: the EU, such a so-called help Greece, relief program of debt. Author from the details of the view, I always think: Europe is ready to abandon the Greek preparation. This is a patchwork of rescue plan, in fact, in order to win some time, the Greek isolate, and then, more orderly breach of contract arrangements, so that the troika of the European financial, will be able to achieve the protection of France and Germany the interests of the bank; As for the fate of the Greeks, the three European financial carriage, has not in the agenda to consider within.

歐洲金融三頭馬車的安排,應該能夠提醒:義大利人、西班牙人、葡萄牙人、愛爾蘭人,甚至是法國人,不能夠不心存疑慮。這些國家的人民,實在有理由懷疑:與希臘人相似的命運,正在前方等待著自己。

European financial arrangements of the three-horse cart, should be able to remind: Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Irish, and even the Frenchman will have misgivings. People in these countries, there is strong reason to doubt: a similar fate with the Greeks, is waiting in front of their own.

但是,德國人,也不可能高枕無憂,他們遲早會意識到,當自己的重要出口市場,都在推行殘酷的節儉政策的時候,德國的經濟,也會受到摧殘。只是,時辰還未來到而已。

However, the German cannot sit back and relax; they will realize that sooner or later, when an important export market, in the implementation of the brutal thrift policy, the German economy, will also be devastated. But, the hour has not yet come.

(四)展望未來:
無論歐元區:將會維持統一性,繼續存在;還是經過,在不同程度的整合、分裂後,繼續存在。

(4)Looking to the future:
Whether the euro area: will be to maintain consistency, continue to exist; or after, in varying degrees of integration, after the split, continue to exist.

歐洲的國家,最好學習美國政府的榜樣,由國家的精英,研究出適合國情的辦法,用來刺激國家的經濟;每當國家遇到經濟困難時,能夠順利地採取應變的策略。

European countries, it is best to learn a model for the U.S. government by the elite of the country, to work out suitable conditions, be used to stimulate the country’s economy; Every time when the country encountered economic difficulties, to successfully adopt contingency strategies.

目前金融市場,全部聚焦在,歐盟對希臘的新一輪1300億貸款。可惜,這些貸款的先決條件是:強制逼使希臘政府,採用嚴苛的經濟改革,以及,須要大幅度,逼使債權人,自願性減債。希臘政府,要全部完成,歐洲金融三頭馬車的嚴厲規定,希臘政府才能夠獲得貸款。

Financial markets all focused on a new round of EU Greece 130 billion loan. Unfortunately, a prerequisite for these loans is: to force the Greek government to force the use of harsh economic reforms and the need to substantially compel creditors, voluntary debt reduction. Greek government to complete the harsh provisions of The troika of the European financial, the Greek government to be able to obtain loans.

其實,只要投資者,經過詳細分析貸款的內容,我們便會知道,貸款細節的規定,希臘政府根本無法實施,因為:任何一個國家的改革和財政緊縮,都會嚴重壓抑國內的內部需求,希臘目前使用,幣值高昂的歐羅,作為流通貨幣,怎麼能夠振興旅遊業?疲憊的經濟環境,會進一步令國家的稅收大幅度減少,政府財政,入不敷支,形成了惡性循環。

In fact, as long as the investor, after the contents of the detailed analysis of the loan, we will know the provisions of the loan details, the Greek government simply cannot be implemented, because: the country’s reform and fiscal austerity will severely depressed domestic internal demand. Greece because of the use of high currency Euro as currency in circulation how can revitalize the tourism industry? Tired of the economic environment, will further make a substantial reduction in state tax, government finance, to make end meet, forming a vicious cycle.

(五)筆者建議希臘政府,倘若真的有機會,收到大筆救助性貸款後,應該以各種不滿歐盟政治性安排為藉口,盡快自行退出歐元區。然後,利用國家貨幣貶值的行政措施,用來償還部份債務,最後:採取措施,刺激旅遊業,增加工業出口。

(5)I take the liberty to the Greek government proposed if the government really has the opportunity to receive a large amount of rescue loans, the Greek government should be based on a variety of dissatisfaction with the EU’s political arrangements as an excuse. Greece should be decided to withdraw from the euro as soon as possible. Finally: to take measures to boost tourism, increase in industrial exports.

希臘國內,有許多旅遊名勝古蹟,這些都是希臘的固有資產。希臘政府大可以與國際財團合作經營。希臘政府,只須要以出售長期經營權的方式,與國際財團合作,發展旅遊業,增加人民的就業機會,減少人民的戾氣。起碼能讓人民覺得,國家有了希望。官員們亦總好過,每天為了應付債務而身心疲憊。

Greek domestic, there are many tourist attractions; these are Greece’s inherent assets. The Greek government can operate in cooperation with the international consortium. Greek government, only to sell the right to operate with the international consortium, the development of tourism, increase the employment opportunities of the people reduce the hostility of the people. At least make people think, countries have hope. The officials also do not have to deal with the debt, mental and physical exhaustion.

德國、法國堅持希臘,繼續留在歐元區,德國和法國,其實是具有深層次的考慮。試想一想,現時的減債方案,隨時超過總欠債的70%,之後,又有可能,須要新一輪的貸款。對借款人來說,簡直有「掉錢落海」的風險。那麼,為何又須要繼續貸款?

(六)歐洲金融三頭馬車背後的動機:
(6)The troika of the European financial the motives behind:

一、 歐羅區沒有會員的退出機制,希臘的退出,必定會引發,世界各國,對歐羅區的銀行,進行大量訴訟,法律訴訟所花費的金錢,非常龐大。

1 The euro area does not have a mechanism for members to exit, the exit of Greece, must lead to the world, on the banks of the euro area, a lot of litigation, the money spent by the legal proceedings, very large.

二、 當希臘退出歐元區後,金融市場,絕對有可能會引發,一系列對葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利,主權債券的投機性沽盤,令歐洲金融三頭馬車,重新塑造金融穩定,涉及的花費,會更加龐大,日後,拯救的過程會更加艱難。

2 Greece out of the euro, financial markets, absolutely may lead to a series of Portugal, Spain and Italy, the sovereign bonds of speculative sell order, so that the troika of the European financial re-shaping the financial stability, the cost involved will be much larger in the future to save the process will be more difficult.

三、 歐洲金融三頭馬車盤算:如果歐羅區,能夠闖過這一難關,肯定會增加歐元區,全歐洲一體化的民意。結果:會吸引更多東歐國家加入歐元區,會員國家的協同效應會放大,令歐羅區統一財政的方案,成為更加理所當然,結果,會進一步鞏固德國和法國在歐元區的領導地位。

3 The troika of the European financial calculations: if the euro zone, able to break through this difficulty, would certainly increase the euro area, the opinion of the European integration. Results: will attract more Eastern European countries join the euro, the synergistic effect of the member countries will be enlarged, so that the unified financial programs of the euro zone, become more a matter of course, the results will further strengthen the leading position of Germany and France in the euro area.

(七)歐洲金融三頭馬車,援助希臘的計劃,存在的隱憂:

(7)The troika of the European financial plan for assistance to Greece, there are concerns:
20國集團(Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors),又稱G20,是一個國際經濟合作論壇,於1999年12月16日在德國柏林成立,屬於布雷頓森林體系框架內非正式對話的一種機制,由八國集團(美國、日本、德國、法國、英國、意大利、加拿大和俄羅斯)以及其餘十二個重要經濟體(歐盟、中國、巴西、印度、澳洲、墨西哥、南韓、土耳其、印尼、沙特阿拉伯、阿根廷和南非)組成。按照慣例,國際貨幣基金組織與世界銀行列席該組織的會議。
G20, also known as the G20, is an international forum for economic cooperation, set up in Berlin, Germany on December 16, 1999, is a mechanism for informal dialogue with the Bretton Woods system, within the framework of the G8 (United States, Japan, Germany France, Britain, Italy, Canada and Russia) as well as of the remaining 12 major economies (the European Union, China, Brazil, India, Australia, Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Argentina and South Africa).
In accordance with the practice, the IMF and World Bank will send representatives to attend the meeting of the organization.

G20國集團,還沒有為增加注資,世界銀行的計劃,達成共識。況且,國際貨幣基金組織,現時仍然尚未確實知道,會為希臘新一輪貸款,負擔的總金額。

擁有希臘國家債券的對沖基金及民間債權人,並未達成共識,願意對希臘債券票面價值,撇除 53.5%的協議。

希臘貸款合約中,清楚列出,希臘政府,必須執行經濟緊縮政策。但是,緊縮政策內容提到的,可持續性執行的分析報告中,令到德國、荷蘭及芬蘭等議會,對拯救希臘脫離債務,所須要負擔的風險,表示抗拒。因為,上述國家的領袖,須要承擔國內政治的壓力。
Greek loan agreements that clearly set out, the Greek government, you must perform austerity. However, the austerity policy content mentioned in the sustainability analysis of the implementation, so that the parliament of Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, to save Greece from the debt, and have to bear the risk, said resist. Because the leaders of the countries mentioned above, have to bear the pressure of domestic politics.

 希臘政府會在2012年 4月會舉行大選,大選過後,新政府會否恪守承諾,繼續實施經濟緊縮政策和結構性改革嗎?在這一個謎團裏,存在許多變數。
 Greek government in April 2012, will hold a general election after the election, the new government will honor its commitments and continue to implement economic austerity and structural reform? In a mystery, there are many variables.
 希臘國內,疲弱的經濟,能夠支持經濟緊縮政策和經濟改革嗎?
 Greek domestic, the weak economy, able to support economic austerity and economic reform?
 由於希臘政府,就算能夠獲得的貸款,大部份金錢,都只是用於還債,而用於政府日常開支的金錢,估計會少於20%。所以希臘政府,仍然有機會在2012年3月20日,出現債務違約。
The Greek government, even if able to obtain loans, most of the money, and are only used for debt for the day-to-day government spending money, estimated to be less than 20%. Greek government still has a chance to March 20, 2012 debt default.
 希臘人民,在緊縮政策下生活,會有激烈的不滿現實嗎?請大家不要忽略這個因素。
 Greek people living in austerity policy, there will be intense discontented? Please do not ignore this factor.
 歐元區的會員國家,在國民反援助情緒籠罩下,歐洲各國的國會,未來,還會繼續批准,新一輪的經濟援助嗎?
 Member countries of the euro area, in the shadow of the national anti-aid sentiment, Congress of the European countries, the future, will continue to the approval of a new round of economic aid?

(八)假如希臘繼續被鎖定在歐元區內,最終極的結果,都是須要破產收場。
If Greece continues to be locked within the euro zone, the ultimate results of all required bankruptcy end.
評級機構惠譽,在(The troika of the European financial)公佈換債詳情後,將該國信貸評級,進一步下降,由 CCC降至 C,惠譽指出:希臘有可能在短期內違約。(C級是全部評級等級中,八級中的第七級,第八級便是違約級別)

The rating agency Fitch announced the details of the convertible debt, Greece’s credit rating fell further, down by the CCC to C, and Fitch pointed out that: Greece may be a breach in the short term. (C-class all the rating scale, eight in the seventh grade, eighth grade is the default level)

有經濟分析師表示,希臘雖然與歐洲各國達成協議,但是,希臘最終都會走上破產之路。有評論引述 IMF的機密評估文件,文件內容指出: 2020年希臘債務,仍然會佔有,經濟輸出總額達160%,遠超議定目標的 120.5%。

Some economic analysts said Greece to reach an agreement with European countries, but Greece will eventually embark on the road of bankruptcy. Comments quoted by the IMF confidential assessment document, the contents of the documents: Greek debt in 2020, still will occupy. Economic output amounted to 160 percent, far more than 120.5% of the agreed targets.

希臘政府必須與私人債權人進行換債,成為該國獲救的重要一環。根據協議,假若對沖基金或銀行等私人債權人,自願進行換債,需承受 53.5%的撇債,這些撇債舉措,有助於希臘政府,減少所負擔的債務。倘若私人債權人或對沖基金公司,不願意置換新債,評級機構或有可能,宣佈希臘違約,觸發信貸違約掉期( CDS)賠償。

The Greek government must exchange debt with private creditors, become an important part of the country were rescued. Under the agreement, if the hedge funds or banks and other private creditors, voluntary exchange debt, private creditors have to bear 53.5% of written off debt, write debt initiatives to help the Greek government, to reduce the debt burden. If private creditors or hedge fund company, unwilling to replacement of new debt, the rating agencies, or likely to announce a Greek default, triggering credit default swaps (CDS) compensation.

(九)歐洲金融三頭馬車規定:希臘政府要說服95%私人債權人或對沖基金公司,自願接受削減債及置換新債,才能獲發貸款。這樣的批核條款,其實是一項不可能完成的任務。

The troika of the European financial provisions: the Greek government to convince 95% of private creditors or hedge fund company, to accept voluntary debt reduction and replacement of new debt to be issued loans. Terms of approval, in fact, is an impossible task.
親愛的讀者們,試問:假如您是債權人,您已經為持有的希臘國債,購買了信貸違約掉期(CDS)保險,只要希臘政府,不能夠在限期到達時,歸還借款,您便可以向保險公司,要求全數金額的賠償,您會輕易答應自動削減債款及進行舊債置換新債嗎?
除非…(這裡的空白,留給讀者們無限的想像)……。

Dear readers, let me ask you: If you are a creditor, you have already purchased credit default swaps (CDS), insurance of Greek government bonds held by.
Greek government cannot be in the reach of the deadline, the return of the borrower, you will be able to require the full amount of compensation to the insurance company, and will you easily agree to automatically cut debt and new debt for old debt replacement?

Unless …… (left blank, leaving to the imagination of readers) ……。

(十)過去一星期,金融市場,雖然聚焦在歐洲,但是:我希親愛的讀者,要注意日元的走勢。我認為:日本的債務已經佔GDP逾200%,比較希臘債務佔經濟輸出達 160%還要高,在短期內,美元兌日元會直逼100。
(10)The past week, financial markets, although the focus in Europe, but: I hope, dear reader, to pay attention to the trend of the Japanese Yuan. In my opinion: Japan’s debt has more than 200% of GDP to compare the Greek debt, accounting for the economic output of 160% is even higher. In the short term, the U.S. dollar against the Yen would be almost equal to 100.

這篇博客完成於24-02-2012香港時間上午20:15 p.m.
現時,美元兌日本元的匯價是:80.50

This blog is completed on 24-02-2012 Hong Kong time, 20:15 p.m.m
At present, the U.S. dollar against the Japanese exchange rate is: 80.50

根據黃金分割比率顯示:80.55是黃金分割比率的0.5%,倘若匯價趨向,超越80.55。並且:維持上述價位一段日子,便可以理解為:日本元,開始有下跌趨勢。

According to the analysis of the golden ratio: 80.55 have been reached, the golden ratio to 0.5% position.
Assumptions: the U.S. dollar against the Japanese Yuan exchange rate, beyond the 80.55 price. And maintain the above price for some days, they can be understood as: Japanese Yuan started a downward trend.

日本元要回復上升趨勢,須要符合下列條件:
1歐洲債務危機,進一步惡化。
2避險情緒高漲。
3黃金價格下跌。

Japan Yuan to reply to an upward trend, the need to comply with the following conditions:
1 European debt crisis, continue to deteriorate further.
2 Financial markets, rising risk aversion.
3 Gold prices fell.

(十一)自然界會有生存和死亡定律。這種定律,也存在「金融界」內。人類生理倒閉是死亡;財務倒閉是破產。買債券最怕是發行債券的機構「執笠」;買股票最怕上市公司「執笠」;買貨幣最怕政府「破產」。日本的債務,佔經濟輸出總額,達到 200%以上,債務信用違約,是遲早都會出現的事實,日元怎麼能夠避免,大幅度貶值?

(11)The natural world, there will be life and death’s law. This life and death laws, are also present in the “financial sector". The collapse of human physiology is death; personal financial collapse of the bankrupt. To buy bonds is most afraid of the bond issuer “winding up"; to buy stocks, the worst fear is that the listed company “winding up"; to buy the currency are most afraid of the government “bankruptcy." Japan’s debt, accounting for the total economic output, more than 200% debt credit default, sooner or later appear, Yen how to avoid, not devaluation?
Yen how to avoid the devaluation?

(十二)但是,親愛的讀者要留意:由於金融市場的風險情緒(Risk-on)與(Risk-off)避險情緒,頻繁地交替出現,假設:您對前景持悲觀的看法時,便要留意進入市場時,價位的選擇。

(12)But, my dear readers to note: due to financial market risk sentiment and risk aversion, frequently alternating.
Hypothesis: when you hold a pessimistic view of prospects for the future, we must pay attention to enter the market, select the appropriate price.

我認為短期內:歐元兌美元,會上升到1.35;英鎊兌美元,會上升到1.60;澳元兌美元,會上升到1.10;紐元兌美元,會上升到0.86;加拿大元兌美元,會上升到0.98;美元兌瑞士法郎,會上升到0.89;石油會見到120美元;黃金會見到1830美元。

I consider the short term (three months) the euro against the U.S. dollar, to rise to 1.34; the pound against the dollar, to rise to 1.60; the Australian dollar to rise to 1.10; New Zealand dollar, to rise to 0.86; the Canadian dollar against rise to 0.98; the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc to rise to 0.90; oil prices will see $ 120; the price of gold will see $ 1,800.

當到達這些價位時,才考慮進入市場。切勿「輕舉妄動」,避免「坐艇」 兼「虧損」。

When you reach the price of these goals is the time to consider entering the market. “Do not act rashly, to avoid the" boat ride “and" loss “.

部份參考資料:
鉅亨網陳怡君
MarketWatch專欄作家德拉梅德(Darrell Delamaide)
外參新聞網
作家 米沙•格倫尼 為英國《金融時報》撰稿

References:
Kui Heng network Yi-Chun Chen
MarketWatch columnist Della Dmitry (Darrell Delamaide)
External Reference News
Mischa – Ge Lunni
筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

(Chapter 21) European financial stability mechanism can play founded declared: the protection of the member countries, the financial stability function?


(第21章)歐洲金融穩定機制,能夠發揮創立時宣稱:保護各成員國家金融穩定的功能嗎?

歐洲金融穩定機制是一個甚麼性質的國際組織?
European financial stability mechanism is what kind of an international organization?

歐洲金融穩定機制成立於2010年5月,設立的目標是:保護各成員國的金融穩定,集合資金總額,大約在7500億美元。

European Financial Stability Facility, established in May 2010, established objectives are: to protect the financial stability of member states, a collection of the total funds, about $ 750 billion.

EFSF各國出資比例: EFSF countries funded ratio:
國家
Country 資金(百萬歐元)
Funds (in millions of euros) 百分比(%)Percentage (%)
奧地利 Austria 12,241.43 2.78%
比利時 Belgium 15,292.18 3.48%
賽普路斯 Cyprus 863.09 0.20%
芬蘭 Finland 7,905.20 1.80%
法國 France 89,657.45 20.38%
德國 Germany 119,390.07 27.13%
希臘 Greece 12,387.70 2.82%
愛爾蘭 Ireland 7,002.40 1.59%
義大利 Italy 78,784.72 17.91%
盧森堡 Luxembourg 1,101.39 0.25%
馬爾他 Malta 398.44 0.09%
荷蘭 Netherlands 25,143.58 5.71%
葡萄牙 Portugal 11,035.38 2.51%
斯洛伐克 Slovakia 4,371.54 0.99%
斯洛文尼亞 Slovenia 2,072.92 0.47%
西班牙 Spain 52,352.51 11.90%
合計 Total 440,000.00 100%

2010年5月,歐元區債務危機,進一步加深,歐洲中央銀行和歐洲各個成員國家,面對經濟衰退的出現,歐洲國家的領袖,擔憂金融危機會爆發,影響歐元區內的銀行,無法解決資金短絀,EFSF在危難中成立了。
那麼, EFSF究竟是一個甚麼性質的組織?為甚麼這一個組織,被稱為是:歐洲經濟危機的最後一根救命稻草?

In May 2010, the euro zone debt crisis, further deepening the European Central Bank and the European member countries, the face of economic recession, the nation’s leaders in Europe, concerns about the financial crisis would erupt, affecting the banks within the euro zone cannot solve the funding shortage, and the EFSF was set up in a crisis.
Then, the European financial stability mechanism is exactly what kind of an organization?
Why is this an organization known as: the last one of Europe’s economic crisis, life-saving prescription?

1 歐洲金融穩定機制,對歐洲銀行,面對金融危機,會有甚麼幫助:

1 European financial stability mechanism for the involvement of a financial crisis, European banks, what will help?

European Financial Stability Facility operational processed:
(1) 借款超額擔保120%擔保上限4400億歐元
(1) the borrower over guarantee a 120% guarantee up to € 440 billion
(2)提高歐元區會員國貸款機制
(2) to improve the euro area, Member States lending mechanism
(3)擔保比例依照EBC認繳資本比例
(3) guarantee the proportion of subscribed capital ratio in accordance with EBC
(4)須在歐元區與IMF聯合計劃下運作
(4) shall operate under the joint program of the euro area with the IMF

(5)由參與EFSF擔保國家,決定是否提供融資服務
(5) by the participating the EFSF secured countries, to decide whether to provide financing services

By the countries involved in guarantees to decide whether to provide

雖然歐洲中央銀行,已經竭盡所能,儘量幫助歐洲各成員國家,避免受到債務危機的蔓延。

While the European Central Bank, have done everything it can to try and help the European member countries, to avoid the spread of the debt crisis.

但是,直到今時今日,歐洲的經濟危機狀況,卻沒有絲毫的減退,反而有愈演愈烈的趨勢,原因就在於:歐洲中央銀行早期過於低估了,義大利債務危機的真實情況。

However, until today, Europe’s economic crisis situation, but no decline, but a growing trend, the reason is that: the European Central Bank, the early underestimated the true situation of the debt crisis in Italy.

意大利的債務危機,絕對不是投資者當初所想像的那麼簡單。

Italy’s debt crisis is definitely not as simple as investors had thought.

原因是:義大利是一個人口眾多的國家。義大利長期的金融及稅務政策,存在嚴重的漏洞。人民、企業避稅的情況,十分嚴重。導致主權債務危機,不斷的積累和加深。雖然,現在還不甚明顯,但是一旦債務危機發生蔓延,那麼義大利的債務危機,將會一發不可收拾,因此只有請求EFSF來進行幫忙。

The reason: Italy is a populous country. Italy’s long-term financial and taxation policies, there are serious loopholes. People, corporate tax avoidance, the situation is very serious. Lead to sovereign debt crisis, the accumulation and deepening. Although still not so obvious, but once the debt crisis spread, then, the debt crisis in Italy, will be out of control, therefore, only request EFSF to help.

The five countries each month the total debt due
國家 希臘 愛爾蘭 西班牙 葡萄牙 意大利 五國每月到期債款
country Greece Ireland Spain Portugal Italy the total debt due a month
01-2012 43.60 4.74 154.47 39.63 165.95 408.39
02-2012 25.07 0.04 150.37 42.53 630.50 848.51
03-2012 174.51 62.09 94.86 28.32 516.98 876.76
04-2012 20.68 13.03 268.94 10.11 463.92 776.68
05-2012 115.46 0.00 89.23 3.68 194.47 402.84
06-2012 29.91 6.39 67.58 120.49 111.95 336.32
07-2012 30.49 0.00 315.83 10.54 271.16 628.02
08-2012 96.79 0.05 75.44 3.90 280.27 456.45
09-2012 10.19 0.19 78.15 6.12 263.73 358.38
10-2012 11.75 12.01 316.81 17.75 292.34 650.66
11-2012 0.87 0.00 28.53 0.52 227.78 257.70
12-2012 23.35 0.36 57.93 14.74 407.37 503.75
總債款 582.67 98.90 1698.14 298.33 3826.42 6504.46
資料來源: Bloomberg

2 歐元區設立EFSF的另一個原因是:

Another reason for the euro area set up EFSF is:

從歷史背景來看,歐洲各成員國家之間,人民的思想和行為,步伐向來都不一致。因此,歐洲各個成員國家,沒有拿出,共渡難關的精神。相反,歐洲有些國家的人民認為:我們國家金融制度正常運作,我們為甚麼要拿出金錢去幫助陷入財政困難的國家?他們表現出:事情不關乎自己國家,我們為甚麼要關心金融危機的態度。

From the perspective of the historical background, the European member countries, people’s thoughts and actions, the pace has always been at odds. Therefore, the European member countries did not come up with the spirit of the tide over the crisis. On the contrary, people in some countries in Europe: the normal operation of our country’s financial system, why should we come up with money to help countries in financial difficulties? They showed: things are not related to their own country, why should we care about the attitude of the financial crisis.

由於EFSF的設立,只是單方向的措施,所以EFSF與成員國家之間,無法產生互補的效果。
EFSF the establishment of only one-way measures, the EFSF between the member countries cannot produce a complementary effect.

雖然:歐洲中央銀行,尚.克勞德.特里謝 行長,不斷呼籲各個國家,應當採取相應的措施,防止債務危機的蔓延。

Although the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Richet has repeatedly called on all countries should take appropriate measures to prevent the spread of the debt crisis.

然而,許多未感受到債務危機的國家,反應則是相當冷淡,因此,當時的歐洲國家的領袖認為,只有創立EFSF,才能夠應付金融危機。

However, many countries did not feel the debt crisis, the reaction is quite indifferent, therefore, the then leader of the European countries believe that only the creation of the EFSF, to be able to cope with the financial crisis.

3 EFSF設立後,能夠解決金融危機中的實質問題嗎?

3 After the EFSF set up, able to resolve the substantive issues in the financial crisis?

首先,我們來看一看,這個金融穩定機制,創建時的具體目標是:
在2010年5月,歐洲的政治領袖,驚覺金融危機將會爆發,為了能夠攜手採取措施,應對難以解決的狀況,於是集合各個歐元區國家,共同創辦了歐洲金融穩定機制,目的是為了避免,歐元區內某一些國家,金融界出現混亂。於是部份歐洲國家,集合7500億美元,用來幫助未來可能發生金融體系崩潰的國家。

In May 2010, Europe’s political leaders, alerted to the outbreak of the financial crisis will be, in order to be able to join hands to take measures to deal with the difficult to resolve the situation, so a collection of individual euro area countries, co-founder of the European financial stability mechanism, the aim is to avoid some countries in the euro area, the financial chaos. As a result, some European countries, a collection of $ 750 billion to help possible future collapse of the national financial system.

從設立金融穩定機制的定義來看,的確可以幫助歐洲一些國家暫時緩解債務危機。然而,隨著金融危機的蔓延,今時今日,想要根除危機,卻是難如登天。因此,需要全球的國家,共同努力改善經濟狀況,才可以更加完美地,幫助歐洲渡過困難。

From the definition of a financial stability mechanism can indeed help in some European countries, temporary relief from the debt crisis. However, with the spread of the financial crisis, today, want to eradicate the crisis, but it is impossible and therefore, countries around the world work together to improve the economic situation, can only be more perfect, to help Europe through the difficult.

其實,歐洲中央銀行及聯儲局,已經為了拯救歐洲債務危機,準備了應變措施,就是注入超高額的流動性現金,用來充斥歐洲和美國金融體系,以確保雷曼事件不會重演,意思是:美國和歐洲的領袖,不會容許,有大型金融機構出現倒閉風潮。

in fact, the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Board, in order to save the debt crisis in Europe, to prepare contingency measures is to inject ultra-high mobility of cash used to flooded Europe and the U.S. financial system to ensure the Lehman event does not repeat itself, meaning that: leader of the United States and Europe, will not allow large financial institutions, the collapse of the wave.

4 2011年歐洲中央銀行,已經向銀行業,推出近 5000億歐元的 3年期 1厘低息貸款措施(即所謂的 LTRO),超過 500間歐資銀行參與,當中有中、小型銀行,只是為了拆入資金,來補充銀行的現金流;

2011 the European Central Bank to the banking sector, the introduction of nearly 500 billion euros in three years of 1% low-interest loans measures (i.e. the so-called LTRO), more than 500 banks in Europe to participate in them, and small banks, but in order to borrowing money to supplement the bank’s cash flow;

也有大型銀行,拆入資金後,繼而買入年利率 5至 7厘的歐洲債券,賺取利息差額,隨後又把債券,存在放歐洲中央銀行,作為循環貸款的抵押品,銀行這些舉措,實際上,已經變相成為了一種,另類的量化寬鬆措施。實際運作上:歐洲中央銀行內,並沒有放貸給銀行相同數額的現金。

Large banks, the capital borrowed, and then buy the interest rate of 5-7% of European bonds, earn interest margin, then again the bonds, there is the release of the European Central Bank as collateral for the revolving loan, the banks of these initiatives, the actual has become an alternative quantitative easing measures. The actual operation: the European Central Bank does not lend to banks, the same amount of cash.

資金的來源:其實是歐洲中央銀行透過與美國聯儲局,預先安排好的, 1萬億美元兌歐元的貨幣掉期合約。

The source of funds: in fact, is through with the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, pre-arranged $ 1 trillion against the euro currency swap contracts.

美國聯儲局內部,實際上,也沒有擁有1萬億美元的現金,所謂貨幣掉期,實際上,是存在於兩大中央銀行之間,資產負債表內的一種,加數、減數確認或進行印刷鈔票的操作。

Within the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, in fact, did not have $ 1 trillion in cash, the so-called currency swaps, in fact, exist between the two central banks, a balance sheet, the addend, subtrahend to confirm or the operation of printing money.

未來幾個月,筆者幾乎可以預期,歐洲債券的壞消息,將會頻繁而不斷重複地出現,歐洲中央銀行和美國聯儲局,已經進入隨時啟動,超寬鬆的量化寬鬆措施。

The next few months, I almost expected the bad news of the Eurobond will be frequent and repeated, the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, has entered, start at any time, ultra-loose quantitative easing measures.

金融市場預期:2012年 2月 29日,歐洲中央銀行推出的第二輪 LTRO,將會累計拆出達 1萬億歐元的貸款。筆者認為:最終投入的資金額度,會視乎美國聯儲局,是否會同步參與。

Financial market expectations: February 29, 2012, the European Central Bank launched the second round of LTRO will be cumulative demolition of up to € 1 trillion of loans. I believe that: the final amount of capital invested will depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, whether synchronous participation.

實際的情況,我相信,將會視乎當時的危機風險,會不會導致:大型的國際性銀行倒閉。我的論述重點是:投資市場,似乎正在醞釀新一波,類似 QE1及 QE2後續的「通脹式」上升趨勢。

The actual situation, I believe, will depend on the risk of crisis, will result in: a large international bank failure. The exposition will focus on: the investment market seems to be brewing a new wave of similar QE1 and QE2 subsequent inflation type upward trend.

5 標準普爾降低34間意大利銀行信貸評級:

5 Standard & Poor’s credit rating reduced by 34 Italian banks:

標準普爾自從上月調低意大利國家主權評級兩級後。

Standard & Poor’s since last month to reduce Italy’s sovereign rating levels.

10-02-2012 標準普爾:決定降低意大利34家銀行的信貸評級,其中包括義大利最大銀行,裕信銀行,評級更被連續降兩級,由A級降低至BBB+級,評級展望為負面。
由於意大利政府,欠債纍纍,增加當地銀行業,向金融市場貸款的難度。

10-02-2012 Standard & Poor’s: decision to lower the credit rating of the 34 banks in Italy, including Italy’s largest bank, Unit Creditor Italian bank, the rating was a continuous drop two lower A-level to BBB + level, the rating outlook is negative.
As the Italian government, numerous debts increase the difficulty of the local banking sector, loans to financial markets.

6 標準普爾,下調歐洲國家信貸評級,實際上會提高EFSF的融資成本:

Standard & Poor’s lowered the European countries credit rating will actually improve EFSF financing costs:

這一次信貸評級的下調,將會嚴重增加歐元區,個別國家主權債務的危機,不斷惡化下去。

Credit rating lowered, it will seriously increase the euro zone sovereign debt crisis of individual countries continue to deteriorate.

法國等歐元區國家主權信用評級,被評級機構下調等級,肯定會嚴重削弱,歐洲金融穩定基金(EFSF)的放款功效,特別是在EFSF堅持維持AAA評級的情況下,而這也將不利於,擴大資金募集管道。

France and other euro-zone countries sovereign credit rating, the rating agencies down grade, will certainly be seriously weakened, the European Financial Stability Fund loan effectiveness, especially the European Financial Stability Fund, adhere to the circumstances to maintain its AAA rating. The ratings go down, will not be conducive to expanding the sources of fund-raising.

一位歐洲中央銀行官員表示,法國主權信貸AAA評級,被評級公司下調一個等級,將導致EFSF營救陷入債務危機國家的力量,大約下降20%,等於從4400億歐元下降至3600億歐元。

A European Central Bank officials said that the French AAA sovereign credit rating, the rating companies lowered one level, will lead to the rescue EFSF into the strength of the state of the debt crisis, declined by about 20%, equal to the decline from 440 billion euros to 360 billion euros.

歐洲中央銀行的官員和經濟學家指出,標準普爾下調:包括評級為AAA的奧地利等國的主權信用評級,將會進一步削弱,EFSF發行頂級評級債券的能力。

European Central Bank officials and economists pointed out that: including the rating of the sovereign credit rating of AAA, Austria and other countries, Standard & Poor’s lowered; it will further weaken the EFSF the ability to issue top-rated bonds.

此外,部分歐元區國家評級遭下調,將提高EFSF的融資成本。解決方案:只能允許EFSF,發行評級低於AAA的債券,於是,現有的擔保額度,便可以確保,發行更多的低級別債券,EFSF的營救力量,將立即得到提高。

In addition, some euro area countries rating was down will increase the EFSF the cost of financing. Solution: only allow the EFSF issue rated below AAA bonds, therefore, the guarantee amount, can ensure that the issuer of more low-grade bonds, the EFSF rescue forces immediately improved.

參與EFSF談判的歐洲中央銀行官員表示,其實,4440億歐元的營救力量並不足夠。

EFSF negotiations, the European Central Bank officials said, in fact, the € 444 billion rescue force is not enough.

不過,這位官員表示:迄今為止,儘管評級為AAA的EFSF,已經發行約200億歐元頂級評級的債券,其AAA評級,仍有可能出現變動。

However, the official said: Although the EFSF rating of AAA, has released about 20 billion euros top-rated bonds, their AAA ratings, there may appear to change.

法國等歐元區國家的評級,被評級機構下調等級,可能促使歐元區領導人,決定允許2010年5月設立,用於援救葡萄牙和愛爾蘭的EFSF,發行評級低於AAA的債券。有一些官員認為,這項舉措,其實有助於,提高EFSF的放貸功能。

France and other euro area countries credit rating, the rating agency lowered grades, could prompt the euro zone leaders decided to allow established in May 2010 for the rescue of Portugal and Ireland, the EFSF issuance of bonds rated below AAA. Some officials believe that this initiative, in fact, help to improve the EFSF’s lending functions.

歐洲中央銀行官員認為,EFSF的AAA評級,代表的不是整個歐元區,只是歐元區的一部分。

European Central Bank officials believe that the EFSF’s AAA rating, the representative of the entire euro zone, is only part of the euro area.

歐元區的領導人,可能會在3月份舉行的高峰會上,決定把總規模為5000億歐元的EFSF,和7月建成的永久性歐洲穩定機制(ESM)合併。

The leaders of the euro area may Summit held in March, the total size of 500 billion euros of the EFSF and completed in July, permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

根據現有協議的規定,EFSF和ESM的合併放貸能力,不能超過5000億歐元,歐元區領導人,將于2012年3月的高峰會上,重新商定細節。
歐元區領導人,到時可能會不理會,德國的反對,為合併放貸能力,設定信貸上限。

Under the existing provisions of the agreement, the combined lending capacity of the EFSF and ESM, not more than 500 billion euros, the euro zone leaders will be in March 2012 of the Summit, to renegotiate the details.

The euro zone leaders to ignore the opposition of Germany, for the combined lending capacity, a maximum credit limit.

EFSF的放貸能力,建基於歐元區政府的擔保情況。在17個參與機制的國家中,只有6個國家的主權信用評級為AAA,因此,所有歐洲成員的國家,有需要提供更多擔保金額,維持EFSF的AAA評級。

EFSF’s lending capacity based on the euro-zone government guarantees. 17 countries involved in the mechanism, only six of the country’s sovereign credit rating is AAA, therefore, all the European member countries need to provide more guarantees amount to maintain the AAA rating of the EFSF.

目前,各成員國家,承諾資金總額為7800億歐元。然而,擁有AAA評級的國家已經從6個減少至4個,其餘11國的評級,也面臨不同程度的變動。

Currently, all member countries, the total committed capital of € 780 billion. However, countries with AAA ratings have been reduced from six to four, the rating of the remaining 11 countries, but also face varying degrees of changes.

全球三大評級機構表示:建基於只有四個國家(荷蘭、德國、芬蘭和盧森堡)仍為AAA的國家,作為評核EFSF的評級準則,有很大難度,除非這些國家,提高更多擔保。

The three global rating agencies, said: built on the only four countries (Netherlands, Germany, Finland and Luxembourg) is still an AAA country rating criteria, as the assessment EFSF, there will be a great difficulty, unless they increase more secured.

7 EFSF對被評級機構下調評級的回應:標準普爾降級不影響EFSF貸款的能力:

7 the EFSF response to downgrades by rating agencies: Standard & Poor’s downgrade does not affect the ability of the EFSF loans:

根據道瓊斯通訊社消息,歐洲金融穩定基金(EFSF)首席執行官雷格林2012年1月16日表示:標準普爾評級服務公司把EFSF評級下調,由AAA級下調至AA+級,不會影響EFSF的放貸能力。儘管歐元區債務危機,仍然甚囂塵上,但是歐元區,絕對不會瓦解。

According to the Dow Jones news agency, the CEO of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) Klaus Regaling said: January 16, 2012 Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered EFSF rating level down from AAA to AA + level, does not affect the EFSF’s lending capacity.

雷格林在一份電子郵件聲明中說:「標準普爾,將EFSF評級下調一級,至AA+,這種舉措,不會影響EFSF現有4,400億歐元貸款能力」。他說,根據當前計畫,以及未來可能做出的調整計畫,在歐洲穩定機制(ESM)於2012年7月投入運行之前,EFSF完全有能力實現承諾。

Regaling said in an emailed statement: “Standard & Poor’s, the EFSF rating down one, to AA +, this initiative will not affect the EFSF 440 billion euro lending capacity. He said that based on current plans, as well as possible future adjustments made plans before the European stability mechanism (ESM) is put into operation in July 2012, the EFSF completely have the ability to promise.

聲明還補充稱:標準普爾給予EFSF的短期評級,依然在最高的A-1+級;與此同時,標準普爾的兩間國際同行伙伴——穆迪投資者服務公司和惠譽——給予EFSF的長期和短期信用評級,都仍然是最高級別。

The statement added: Standard & Poor’s EFSF the short-term rating, still the highest A-1 + level; at the same time, Standard & Poor’s two international peer partners – Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings – give the EFSF long-term and short-term credit rating is still the highest level.

2012年1月13日,標準普爾首先調降了法國和奧地利的“AAA”信貸評級,同時也調降了,包括義大利在內的其他7個國家的信貸評級。

January 13, 2012, Standard & Poor’s first cut in France and Austria, “AAA" credit rating, and also lowered the credit rating of the other seven countries, including Italy.

標準普爾16日將EFSF長期信貸評級由“AAA”調降至“AA+”,在該機構13日大規模調降歐元區成員國的信貸評級之後,這一舉措,就已在預料之中。

EFSF long-term credit rating from “AAA" by Standard & Poor’s, February 16, 2012 cut to “AA +", large-scale cut its credit rating of the euro area member states on the 13th of the agency after this move, had been expected being.

8 歐洲中央銀行,願意幫助希臘主權債券,置換為EFSF債券:

8 European Central Bank is willing to help the Greek sovereign bonds, the replacement for the EFSF bonds:

歐洲中央銀行同意,以低於票面值的價格,用歐洲中央銀行持有的希臘國債,交換歐洲金融穩定基金(EFSF)所發行的公債。前題必須是:希臘與私人債權人,在希臘國債減值問題上,必須先取得成果。

The European Central Bank agreed to a price below par value, of Greek government bonds held by the European Central Bank, the exchange of bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF).The premise is: Greece, with private creditors, the impairment on the issue of Greek government bonds, must be to achieve results.

《華爾街日報》引述消息人士稱,EFSF發行予歐洲中央銀行的債券,實際上將會由希臘所支付。

The Wall Street Journal, citing sources, said the EFSF to issue bonds, to the European Central Bank will actually be paid by the Greek.

換句話說,歐洲中央銀行是間接,接受了希臘國債的減值,但亦換到風險較低的債券。

In other words, the European Central Bank is indirectly accepted the impairment of the Greek government bonds, but also switch to low-risk bonds.

透過此計劃,希臘債務負擔,將削減大約110億歐元。因為歐洲中央銀行,在次級債券市場買入債券時,債券的價格,已經是低於票面價格,歐洲中央銀行,在這項交易中,不會遭受損失。

Through this program, Greece’s debt burden will be reduced to about 11 billion euros. European Central Bank, to buy bonds in the secondary bond market, bond prices, is already lower than the nominal price of the European Central Bank in this transaction, will not suffer losses.

分析師認為,這些舉措,有助於希臘政黨領袖,與私人債權人達成債務協定。
報道又指出,歐洲中央銀行,願意以低於票面價格,交換的希臘國債,這些希臘國債是於2011年,在次級債券市場上,花費約400億歐元購入的。

The analysts believe that these initiatives contribute to the Greek political party leaders, to reach a debt agreement with private creditors.
The report also pointed out that the European Central Bank is willing to lower than the nominal prices, the exchange of Greek government bonds, these Greek government bonds in 2011, in the secondary bond market, spend about 40 billion euros to acquire.

歐洲中央銀行,在2011年,重新啟動,購買債券計劃,買入包括意大利、西班牙等,陷入債務危機的國家債券。

European Central Bank, in 2011, re-start, the purchase of the bond program, buying the bonds of countries including Italy, Spain, into a debt crisis.

歐洲中央銀行,曾經拒絕為其所持有的希臘國債減值,現在,重新購買這些陷入債務危機的國家債券,純粹是為了挽救偏離正軌的市場。歐洲中央銀行說:這是為了避免影響貨幣政策的運作效率,並非為了拯救個別國家。

European Central Bank has refused for its holdings of Greek government bonds impairment, now re-buy into a debt crisis of the national debt, purely in order to save the market aberration. European Central Bank, said: This is to avoid the operational efficiency of monetary policy, not to save the individual countries.

9 這是一句中國的成語:「長貧難顧」:

9 This is a Chinese saying :To help the long-term poverty is very difficult.

歐洲中央銀行行長德拉吉2012年2月9日表示:

February 9, 2012, the European Central Bank Governor Mario Draught said:

歐洲中央銀行近期採取的貨幣政策,已經令歐元區經濟前景得到一些改善。對於金融市場關注的,有關中央銀行,會否參與救助希臘的問題,德拉吉未能給出答案。

Recently adopted by the European Central Bank monetary policy, has made the prospects for the euro zone economy to get some improvement. Concern of financial markets, the central bank, will take part in the rescue of Greece, Mario Draught cannot answer.

德拉吉表示:歐元區經濟前景,面臨高度不確定性和下行風險,下行風險和商品價格、全球經濟前景與保護主義相關聯。總體貨幣擴張步伐,仍然受到限制。與此同時,全球需求增長受壓、歐洲聯盟債務局勢,打壓全球總體經濟動能。

Mario Draught: the economic prospects of the euro area, facing a high degree of uncertainty and downside risks, commodity prices, global economic outlook and protectionism interrelated. The overall pace of monetary expansion is still limited. At the same time, global growth in demand pressure, the debt situation in the European Union, to suppress the overall global economic momentum.

德拉吉同時指出,在央行貨幣政策措施的提振下,金融市場的壓力已經得到緩解,經濟也出現了短暫的企穩跡象。

Mario Draught also pointed out that the central bank’s monetary policy measures to boost financial market pressures have eased, the economy; there have been signs of stabilization of short-term.

盡管2011年第四季度,實際經濟增幅,將會非常疲軟。但是,預計2012年,經濟將逐漸復甦。歐洲中央銀行的長期再融資操作,有了卓越貢獻。我們看到,經濟數據似乎已經顯示:經濟已經穩定了。

Although the fourth quarter of 2011, real economic growth will be very weak. However, it is expected that in 2012, the economy will gradually recover. The European Central Bank’s long-term refinancing operations, with an outstanding contribution. We see that the economic data seems to show: that the economy has stabilized.

德拉吉進一步表示:三年期,再融資操作啟動之後,第一季度,銀行融資壓力,已經得到緩解;預計第二輪,三年期LTRO將獲得良好的需求,規模應該與第一輪相似。但是,德拉吉也重覆,前幾次政策聲明中的觀點:即歐洲中央銀行的非標準措施,只是暫時進行而已。

Mario Draught further said: The three-year period after the start, the first quarter, the bank funding pressures have been eased; expected the second round, three-year period, refinancing operation: get a good demand, the scale should be similar to the first round. However, Mario Draught also repeated, in view of the previous policy statement: that the European Central Bank, non-standard measures, only a temporary conduct it.

關於希臘的國債問題,該行長表示,對於希臘而言,最為重要的是:政府與人民,能夠為緊縮政策達成協議,希臘的金融改革,應當放在第一位。此外,他亦期望,希臘政府與私人機構債券人的談判,能夠達成協議。

On the issue of government debt of Greece, Mario Draught said, for Greece, the most important are: the government and the people, to reach an agreement to tighten policy, financial reform in Greece, should be top priority. In addition, he also expects that the Greek government and the private sector bond negotiations, agreement can be reached.

德拉吉在談及市場廣泛關注:歐洲中央銀行,會否就持有的希臘債務減記,總裁德拉吉一方面指出:歐洲中央銀行,絕對不做蝕本生意;另一方面,卻暗示,會將出售希臘債券的利潤,透過歐洲金融穩定機制,間接轉移至希臘。

Drudge in the market talking about widespread concern: the European Central Bank, whether held by the Greek debt write-downs, president Mario Draught the one hand, pointed out: the European Central Bank, and absolutely not to incur losses; the other hand, it implies the sale of the profits of the Greek bonds, through the European financial stabilization mechanism indirectly transferred to Greece.

德拉吉表示:希臘是特例,歐洲中央銀行,對於處理希臘債務問題,沒有第二個計劃,他非常相信:所有安排,都將各就各位。但是,依然沒有明確表明:歐洲中央銀行,對於希臘債務問題,實際採取何種應對措施。

Mario Draught said: Greece is a special case of the European Central Bank is no arrangement for the second plan, for dealing with the debt problems of Greece, he was very convinced: all the arrangements, will find their own place., However, is still not clear that: the European Central Bank to deal with the debt problems of Greece, the actual What counter-measures.

德拉吉就這一種變相資助希臘的舉措,所表示出來的說辭非常謹慎,他指出:歐洲中央銀行,礙於職權範圍,不能違反法規,直接提供資金援助希臘。但是,可以把出售債券所得的利潤,分派給成員國家,而成員國家,是有權利,用自己認為合適的方式,處置這些,獲得分派的利潤。德拉吉進一步補充:EFSF其實同樣可以視為成員國家之一。

Mario Draught on this a disguised form of funded initiatives in Greece, the rhetoric is very cautious, he pointed out: the European Central Bank, due to the terms of reference, can not violate the regulations, direct funding assistance to Greece.
However, the profits of the sale of the bond proceeds distributed to member countries, member countries have the right to use as they see fit, dispose of them, and access to distributable profits. Mario Draught further added: the EFSF in fact, can also be regarded as one of the member countries.

德拉吉言下之意,非常明白,換言之,歐洲中央銀行,可以將出售希臘國債所得的利潤,分派給EFSF,然後,EFSF便可以把分派所得的利潤,以某種特定方式,轉讓給希臘政府,減輕希臘政府的還債負擔。

Mario Draught implication, very conscious, in other words, the European Central Bank, will be sold from the profits of Greek government bonds, assigned to the EFSF, then, the EFSF will be able to distributable profits from, in some particular way, be transferred to the Greek government, reducing the debt burden of the Greek government.

事實上,大家只要想深一層,現時歐洲金融的局面:已經不是希臘政府主動地要求救助。
實際是:歐元區內,各位老大哥,在顧全大局的前提下,他們都認為,眼前這一位「落難的兄弟」,不得不去拯救而已。
讀者應該明白到:希臘以至歐洲債務危機,並非在短時期,能夠解決得了。

In fact, as long as the reader to further think about the current financial situation in Europe: Europe’s financial predicament, not the Greek government take the initiative to demand relief.
The actual situation is: the euro zone, the euro zone big brother, under the premise of the overall situation, they believe that the front of “a distressed brother” had to save it.
The reader should understand: the debt crisis in Greece and Europe, not in a short period of time, solving the problems.

我們應該明白:在歐洲債務前景,尚未明朗之前,歐洲貨幣,只適宜沽售,不適宜中、長期持有,使用小量資金,跟隨消息炒作,但是,謹記利用分析工具,例如:黃金分割比率。當遇到不理性的市場突變時,止蝕離開市場,緊記保存實力。

We should understand that: before the European debt outlook remains uncertain, the European currency, is only suitable for selling, is not appropriate in the long-term holding, use a small amount of funding to follow the news hype, but bear in mind that the use of analytical tools, such as: the golden ratio. When encountered irrational market mutation, the stop-loss out of the market, bear in mind the preservation of strength.

其實,讀者們值得留意是:希臘政府會怎樣實施方案,才是問題癥結所在。希臘全國,示威抗議活動,不斷升溫,在剛過去的周末,已經有六位內閣官員,因為不滿意緊縮方案的內容,他們覺得憤怒而請辭,充份反映出,管治希臘政府的官員,目前統治的理念,有如一盤散沙。

In fact, readers are worth noting: the Greek government will be how to implement the program, is the crux of the problem. Greece, the country, protests, continues to heat up, this past weekend, has six Cabinet officials are not satisfied with the contents of the austerity program, they feel anger and resignation, which fully reflects the governance of the Greek government officials, the concept of the rule, like disunity.

雖然,希臘政府理應可以,順利獲得1,300億歐元的貸款。但是,短期之內,希臘仍然有很多潛在的金融風險。第一方面:希臘政府與私營機構債權人的角力,仍然未能得出結果。私營機構的債權人,可以選擇,拒絕接受,希臘政府的換債協議,而取得CDS的賠償。

Although the Greek government should be able to smoothly get a loan of 1,300 million euros. But in the short run, Greece still has a lot of potential financial risks. The first aspect: the Greek government and the private sector creditors, wrestling, still unable to the outcome. Private sector creditors can choose to refuse to accept, the Greek government for debt agreement, while taking CDS compensation.

第二方面:希臘人民的抗議活動,幾乎窒息了國家的經濟動力,目前的希臘政府領袖,已經束手無策。領袖們,怎麼辦?怎麼辦?

The second aspect: the protests of the Greek people, almost choked the country’s economic power, the current leader of the Greek government has been helpless. Leaders, how to do? How to do will be successful?

最後,請親愛的讀者們容許我,再一次使用一句中國的諺語,作為本期論述的結尾。

Finally, all my dear readers, allow me to once again use a Chinese proverb, as the end of the current discourse.
「家有二千,每日二錢,全無生計,用得幾年」?

“Two thousand dollars of savings, spent two dollars a day, if there is no source of income, of $ 2,000 is available on how many days?”

10 筆者,進入外匯市場,進行投機買賣的理據:
讀者,如果理念與筆者相同的話,不妨考慮:澳洲元兌日本貨幣,作為套息交易:選擇之一。

10 The author, enter the foreign exchange market, the rationale for the speculation:
The reader, if the ideas and the same author’s, and may wish to consider: Australian dollar against the Japanese currency as a carry trade: one of the options.

14-02-2012日本中央銀行宣佈:維持基準利率在0至0.1厘。但是,出乎意外地,額外增加購買資產規模:高達1,280億美元,並且,同時設定通脹目標為1%。

14-02-2012 Japan’s central bank announced: to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0 to 0.1%. However, unexpectedly, the additional purchase of asset size: U.S. $ 128 billion, and at the same time set the inflation target of 1%.

值得讀者留意的是:日本中央銀行的舉措;英倫銀行(BOE)增加購買國債預算規模,增加到至3,250億。踏進2012年,各個國家中央銀行,已經為大量印刷鈔票,展開序幕。

Readers should pay attention to are: Japan’s central bank initiatives; the Bank of England (BOE) to increase the size of the purchase of government bonds budget increased to $ 32.5 billion. Step into 2012, each national central bank, has a large number of printing money, was kicked off.

各個國家中央銀行,爭先恐後以不同形式,增加貨幣供應及流動性現金,環球的經濟情況,必定會再經歷多一次,現鈔貶值浪潮;商品市場以至實體資產價值,大幅度升值的機會,將會增加。

The various national central banks vie with each other in different forms, increase the money supply and liquidity of cash, the global economic situation, will certainly go through one more cash depreciation of the wave; commodity markets as well as the value of physical assets, a significant appreciation of the opportunity will be increase.

金融市場的波動,在風高浪急的情況下,資金的流向,已經成為:選擇投資、分析投資的重要功課之一,讀者們,必須深入研究。

Volatility of financial markets, in the case of high wind and waves, the flow of funds, has become: the choice of investments, analysis of investment, one of the important lessons, readers must examine.

若然,如果我們展望未來幾年,認定:環球經濟增長速度,仍然緩慢的話。但是,各個國家的中央銀行又繼續印刷鈔票的話,在貨幣不斷增加這段期間,以低息貨幣與高息貨幣之間作套息交易,將會是金融市場投資主流之一。

If so, if we look ahead to the next few years, finds that: global economic growth rate is still slow. However, each country’s central bank to continue to print money in the currency increasing during this period, the low interest rate currency and high interest rate currencies, the carry trade, will be one of the mainstream financial markets and investment.

下期預告:
希臘政府接受了貸款,真的能夠帶領希臘人民,走上幸福的日子嗎?

Next Issue:

The Greek government accepted the loan and can really lead the Greek people, onto the happy days?

筆者真的盼望,能夠有機會面見希臘的官員,向他們提出一些膚淺的意見。

I really hope to have the opportunity to meet with Greek officials, presented to them, some superficial opinions.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

(Chapter 20)Do you think the 「LTR O」 launched by the European Central Bank, to solve the debt crisis of the Euro area?


(Chapter 20)Do you think the 「LTR O」 launched by the European Central Bank, to solve the debt crisis of the Euro area?.

(Chapter 20)Do you think the 「LTR O」 launched by the European Central Bank, to solve the debt crisis of the Euro area?

(20章)您覺得歐洲中央銀行推出的LTRO,能解決歐元區的債務危機嗎?

您知道「LTRO」是甚麼意義嗎?如果我告訴您說,這是一種不公平的行政舉措,您會同意嗎?

The LTRO “What is the significance?” If I tell you, this is an unfair administrative initiative, will you agree?

長期再融資的操作,簡單來說就是:

Long-term refinancing operation is simply:

首先,歐洲中央銀行,降低銀行抵押品的質素,為銀行提供,抵押品擔保。

First of all, the European Central Bank, reducing the quality of the collateral for the bank to provide loans.

然後,歐洲中央銀行,再以1% 的極低亷利率,向銀行注入資金;銀行領得貸款後,把借款用來購買歐洲國家債券,套取利息差價,銀行再將購買回來的歐洲債券,再向歐洲中央銀行,作為再度融資之抵押品,如是者循環運行。

Then, the European Central Bank, and then to 1% of very low interest rates, into the bank funds; bank after receiving the loan, the loan used to purchase the bonds of European countries, taking interest on the difference. European government bonds, the bank will buy back again to the European Central Bank to take out a mortgage, as a second loan, in the case of cycle run.

這種循環貸款的運作,等同於歐洲中央銀行,使用迂迴方式「送錢」給銀行。

The operation of this revolving loan, equivalent to the European Central Bank, to use the roundabout way to give money to the bank.

這些措施,對其他人來說,根本不公平 。

These measure others simply unfair.

因為,這種財政安排等於是:歐洲中央銀行,開動機器印刷鈔票,把鈔票
給予銀行,銀行買了債券後,大部分的金錢還是流回中央銀行。

So, this financial arrangements: the European Central Bank, start the machine to print money, the money given to banks, the bank bought bonds, most of the money, or flow back into the central bank.

LTRO的全文是:Long Term Refinance Operation,即長期再融資操作。
它為什麼這麼重要?

The LTRO the full text is Long Term Refinance Operation, namely long-term refinancing operations.
Why is it so important?

請看一看以下的現實情況:

Please take a look at the following reality:

西班牙財政部於2011/12/20: 賣出了37億歐元3個月期國債,收益率為1.735%,而11月份同期國債的平均收益率為5.11%。
此次西班牙國家債券,發行超額認購倍數為:2.9倍。

2011/12/20: Spain Ministry of Finance sold 3.7 billion euros of three-month Treasury yield 1.735 percent, while in November the same period the average yield of treasury bonds was 5.11%.
The Spanish government bonds, the issue of over-subscription ratio: 2.9 times.

西班牙6個月期國債收益率從5.227%下降至2.435%,此次發行19.2億歐元,超額認購倍數為4.1倍。

Spain’s six-month Treasury yields fell from 5.227% to 2.435%, the issue of 1.92 billion euros, the oversubscription of 4.1 times.

讓我們來看一看:投資者的收益率大幅下降了。

Let’s look at: substantial decline in the rate of returns to investors.

不用我提醒,你也可以看得出,投資者的收益率,下降的幅度,實在太大了,對於這一點,我並不在意,但背後的原因,令人著迷。

I need not remind, you can see, the rate of return of investors, the decrease is too great, and this, I do not care, but the reasons behind fascinating.

用簡單的話來說,歐洲中央銀行,向銀行的注資行政安排,可能會成為一個新的「套利交易」方法,這一點,連我都不明白,究竟是甚麼一回事了?

In simple words, the European Central Bank, the Bank’s injection of administrative arrangements, may become a new “carry trade", this, even I do not understand what is the matter?

從本質上:銀行從歐洲中央銀行,用極低的利率(1%)貸款,然後,銀行利用這筆金錢,購買主權國家債券,賺取中間的利息差距。

In essence: the banks from the European Central Bank, with a very low interest rates (1%) loan, then, banks use the money, buy the bonds of sovereign states, to earn the interest gap in the middle.

舉例來說:
你今天購買了3個月的西班牙國債,你就可以賺0.735%的收益。
如果購買6個月國債,你會賺1.435%的收益。
這種「套利交易」已經使短期國債收益率,發生了巨大變化。

For example:
You purchase three months of the Spanish government bonds, you can earn 0.735% of the proceeds.
If you buy a 6 month bonds, you will earn 1.435% of the proceeds.
This “carry trade" has made short-term bond yields, has undergone tremendous changes.

親愛的讀者們,相信您也會看得出,這種安排,其中的卓越之處嗎?

Dear readers, I believe you will see that such an arrangement, the excellence?

雖然,歐洲中央銀行的長期再融資操作,並沒有從根本上,解決歐洲金融危機的問題,但它能把債務危機,緩解並推後爆破的時日。

Although, the European Central Bank’s long-term re-financing operations, and not fundamentally solve the problems of the financial crisis in Europe, such an arrangement, however, to the debt crisis, alleviate the time and later blasting.

長期再融資操作,讓歐洲中央銀行,成為整個交易的中間人,因為歐洲中央銀行,不能直接購買,歐洲各國的國債。

Long-term refinancing operations, the European Central Bank to become the middleman of the whole process, because the European Central Bank, not a country, cannot be directly purchased the national debt of European countries.

歐洲中央銀行,只能擔任印刷鈔票的角色,當全球500多間銀行,拿到現鈔後,便可以去購買歐洲各個國家的債券。然後,再把這些債券,返還給歐洲中央銀行,作為接續貸款的抵押品。

European Central Bank, only as the role of printing money, when more than 500 banks worldwide, to get cash, they can go to buy the bonds of the various countries of Europe. Then these bonds, returned to the European Central Bank, as a continuation of the collateral of the loan.

如此一來,這些國家債券,最終:還是回到歐洲中央銀行的保險庫裏。
As a result, the bonds of these countries, and ultimately: or return to the European Central Bank vaults.

這種所謂「解救金融危機」的操作,完全與蓋特納和伯南克,應付金融危機,所採取的辦法,十分類似。

The so-called “rescue the financial crisis," the operation, complete with Geithner and Bernanke, to cope with financial crisis taken by the way, very similar.

因此,金融市場裏,有很多投資者或一些歐洲的國家,都反對使用這種所謂「拯救金融危機」的操作。

Therefore, the financial markets, many investors or some European countries are against the use of this so-called “save the financial crisis" operation.

反對使用上述措施,進行「拯救金融危機」的意見,歸納如下:
Against the use of these measures, “to save the financial crisis," as summarized below:

1. 在現階段,已經負擔巨大風險的銀行:為什麼?還要購買更多的歐洲國家債券?

At this stage, the burden on the banks of the huge risk: why buy more European countries’ bonds?

2.假設:歐洲中央銀行,放置在保險庫的國債,再一次,被評級機構繼續降低評級時。
那麼,歐洲中央銀行保險庫裏,已經裝得滿瀉的國家債券,歐洲中央銀行,會怎麼應付?
因為,在金融危機隨時爆發的情況下,購買負債纍纍的國家債券,畢竟:是充滿風險的買賣。

2. Assumptions: the European Central Bank placed in the vault of the national debt, once again, the rating agencies continue to downgrade.
So, the European Central Bank vault, has already been installed overflows government bonds, the European Central Bank will be how to deal with?
Because of the financial crisis erupt at any case, the purchase of the heavily indebted countries debt, after all: it is full of risks of trading.

第一個問題「為甚麼?」很難予以反駁。

The first question, “Why?" It’s hard to refute.

第二個問題的「假設」就很容易給予解釋。

The second question: “What if" it is easy to explain?

既然,歐洲中央銀行,已經放寬了抵押品的質素條件,那些被「降級」的國家債券,依然可以成為貸款的抵押品;就像美國聯儲局,在第一輪量化寬鬆政策推行時的做法一模一樣,任何證券、債券都可以成為貸款的抵押品。

Since the European Central Bank, has been relaxed conditions of the quality of the collateral bonds, “downgrade" can still become the collateral for the loan; like the U.S. Federal Reserve, the implementation of the first round of quantitative easing policy, practice, exactly the same any securities, bonds can become collateral for the loan.

無論怎樣,歐洲中央銀行,發放貸款的金額越高,投資者的風險偏好,就會越強。

In any case, the European Central Bank, the higher the amount of loans, the risk appetite of investors, the more strong.

長期再融資操作計劃,能夠解決債務危機繼續蔓延下去嗎?
絕對不可能。

Long-term refinancing operations plan to solve the debt crisis continues to spread down?

These initiatives, is absolutely impossible to solve the debt crisis in Europe.

但是,長期再融資操作計劃的優點是:可以推遲危機爆發的時日;可以重新建立金融市場的信心。
各位親愛的讀者:LTRO這個新名詞,實在太重要了,我們應該深入研究其中的內涵吧。

However, the advantages of long-term refinancing operations plan: It can postpone the time of crisis; can re-establish confidence in financial markets.
Dear readers: LTRO this new term, is too important, we should be in-depth study its connotation.

下面的敘述,是來自彭博通訊社的一則消息:

The following narrative is a message from Bloomberg:

人類如果真的是有「未來的一生」的話,我願意成為一家「銀行」,因為每一個政府與國家的中央銀行,都希望「我」能夠一生興旺,甚至,在睡覺的時候,也能賺取金錢。

If man really has a “future life", I would like to become a “bank", because every government and the country’s central bank, and hope that the “I" can life thrive, even in sleep, but also earn the money.

歐洲中央銀行2011年,推出金額達4,891.9億歐元的三年期LTRO,以1厘利率,借款予歐洲銀行,以幫助銀行緩解資金周轉的困難,避免銀行面臨,債務到期時,未能及時從傳統市場籌集得足夠資金,應付債務難關。

European Central Bank in 2011, the introduction of three-year period amounted to 4,891.9 billion euros LTRO, the European Central Bank interest rate to 1% of loans to European banks, to help banks to ease the liquidity difficulties, to avoid facing banks, debt maturity, fail to raise enough funds to cope with debt difficulties from the traditional markets.

另外,英國《金融時報》引述消息稱:因為歐洲銀行對流動性資金的需求不斷增加,歐洲中央銀行的長期再融資操作(LTRO)資金額度,有機會增加到1萬億歐元,歐洲中央銀行,再度增加的現金會再度為歐元增添壓力。

In addition, the British “Financial Times" quoted a source said: because European banks are increasing demand for liquidity, the European Central Bank’s long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) the amount of funds, increased to € 1 trillion, the European Central Bank further increase in cash, will add pressure to the euro again.

2011年,歐洲中央銀行,提供了長達3年,無上限貸款的方式,專門向歐洲銀行體系,貸出數千億歐元資金。當時,獲得了總計523家銀行的回應,最終,貸出了4890億歐元資金,超出了市場的預期。

In 2011, the European Central Bank to provide up to three years, the upper limit of loans, lending hundreds of billions of euros of funds dedicated to the European banking system. At that time, a total of 523 banks responded, ultimately, lent 489 billion euros, exceeding the expectations of the market.

歐洲中央銀行實施的長期再融資操作,有兩層用意:

第一是:通過實施的長期再融資操作,消除市場恐慌情緒,減輕困擾整個歐洲銀行業的融資痛苦,避免出現災難性的“信貸危機”。
The European Central Bank, the implementation of long-term refinancing operations, there are two layers of intention:
The first is: the implementation of long-term refinancing operations the elimination of market panic, reduce the pain of troubled European banking sector as a whole financing, to avoid the disastrous “credit crunch".

根據估算,歐洲銀行業,將有大約6500億歐元短期債務,將會於2012年末到期,來自歐洲中央銀行的這筆貸款,正好可以緩解燃眉之急。

According to estimates, the European banking sector, there will be approximately € 650 billion of short-term debt will be due at the end of 2012, the loan from the European Central Bank, just to alleviate the urgent needs.

第二是:歐洲中央銀行,希望獲得貸款的各家銀行,能夠把資金配置到“欠債纍纍的國家”的高利率國債之上,抑制歐債危機,進一步惡化。

The second is: the European Central Bank, banks to obtain loans, to the allocation of funds to the debt-ridden countries, inhibition of the European debt crisis, and further deterioration.

但是,歐洲中央銀行,卻忽視了最重要的關鍵:中央銀行的這些操作,必須能刺激出嶄新的借貸、消費和投資,才能為解救歐債危機和GDP增長做出貢獻,而事實上,得到這筆貸款的銀行,卻沒有釋出貸款給企業的動力。

However, the European Central Bank, ignoring the most important key: these operations, the central bank must be able to stimulate new lending, consumption and investment in order to contribute to rescue Europe’s debt crisis and GDP growth, in fact, access to these loans to banks, but did not release loans to corporate power.

由於,歐洲銀行業,目前正在面臨降低資產負債表的規模和風險的壓力,同時亟待鞏固資本基礎,因此,進一步增持歐元區成員國國債的興趣有限。
As the European banking industry is facing to reduce the size of the balance sheet and the risk of pressure at the same time urgent need to strengthen capital base, further holdings of euro area member states’ interest in government bonds is limited.

歐洲銀行業,寧願把手中寬裕的流動資金,存放在歐洲中央銀行的隔夜存款戶口當中,或是用於債務再融資。

The European banking industry, preferring the hands of ample liquidity, stored in the European Central Bank’s overnight deposit accounts, or for debt refinancing.

歐洲銀行業,更願意將資金,存放在歐洲中央銀行,而不是拆借給其他銀行,原因就是:擔心交易對手,在歐元區主權債務危機中成為犧牲品。

The European banking sector, are more willing to funds deposited in the European Central Bank, rather than lending to other banks, the reason is: fear of counterparty, to be sacrificed in the euro zone sovereign debt crisis.

不少投資者認為,將歐洲中央銀行啟動3年期,沒有上限的貸款機制,視為一種“變相”的量化寬鬆舉措,因為歐洲中央銀行,並不限制銀行拿這些錢去買入歐元區國家發行的國債。

Many investors believe that the European Central Bank three-year, no ceiling on lending mechanism, regarded as a “disguised" quantitative easing (QE) initiative, because the central bank, and there is no limit to the bank, take these loans to buy bonds issued by euro area countries.

然而,正是由於銀行業,不願意購買陷入債務危機的國家所發行的國家債券,因此,歐洲中央銀行目前推行,變相的量化寬鬆舉措的效果,可能遠遠不及,直接推出量化寬鬆政策,更加有功效。

However, the combination of banking, not willing to buy the country into a debt crisis, the issue of state bonds, therefore, the European Central Bank is currently implementing a disguised form of quantitative easing effect, may be far less than the direct introduction of the quantitative easing policy more effective.

歐洲中央銀行的第二批,長達三年期的再融資操作,將會在2012年2月29日進行,但預計效果也不會明顯。

European Central Bank, the second batch of up to three years of refinancing operations, will be February 29, 2012, it is expected that the effect is not significantly.

目前看來,歐洲中央銀行,推行的所有舉措,只是為應對歐洲債務困局,爭取多一些時間。

Now it seems that the European Central Bank, the implementation of all initiatives, just in response to the European debt predicament to get some more time.

歐洲的財金官員,若要挽回金融市場的信心,歐洲中央銀行的領導階層,還得肩負更大的使命。“最終貸款人”這頂帽子,是一定要扣在這一羣領袖的頭頂上。對歐元而言,歐洲貨幣的增發,對歐元的前景,最終會令歐元,逐漸帶來下跌的壓力。

European financial officials to restore confidence in financial markets, the leadership of the European Central Bank, have to shoulder a greater mission.
“Lender of last resort" This hat is sure to buckle on the top of the head of this group of leaders.
The increase in European currencies, the prospects for the euro, will eventually and gradually bring the downward pressure of the euro currency.

斯圖加特的Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg銀行分析師Jens-Oliver Niklasch形容:
歐洲中央銀行提出的長期再融資操作是:
「這基本上是從天上掉下來的錢,條件無可挑剔,每一個人,都希望分得一杯羹」。

Jens-Oliver Niklasch, an analyst at Landesbank, Bank of Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, describe:
The European Central Bank raised the long-term refinancing operations are:
“It’s basically money that falls from the sky, impeccable condition, everyone wants a slice."

歐洲中央銀行設想:只要用極低成本,向銀行注入大量資金,銀行將會積極,申請這塊天上掉下來的餡餅。

The European Central Bank recommends that: just use a very low cost, and to inject a lot of money to the bank, the Bank will actively apply for this come out of the pie.

歐洲中央銀行,為了緩解銀行流動性現鈔的短缺,推出對銀行的3年期融資貸款計劃,金融市場一直希望:這次LTRO項目,能夠等同於一次對銀行的變相救助,因為更多的流動性現金,能夠解決主權債務的原則:國債必須償還的現實。

European Central Bank, in order to alleviate the shortage of bank liquidity cash, launched on the banks of the three-year financing Loan Scheme (LTRO), financial markets have been hoping: financing projects can be equated at once disguised rescue of banks, because of the increased more liquidity in cash, to address the reality of sovereign debt, national debt must be repaid.

這項LTRO計劃,增加了一些具備資格,從歐洲中央銀行融資的銀行名單,實際上:就是將借款合格抵押品的要求降低了,銀行由於能夠使用,風險資產作為抵押品,銀行雖然要支付一定數額的罰款,但是,歐洲中央銀行,將法定存款準備金比率,由2%降至1%之後,銀行就能夠使用更少的抵押品,來獲得貸款了。

LTRO this plan, an increase of some qualification, list of banks financing from the European Central Bank, in fact: the European Central Bank, the loan must be eligible collateral requirements to reduce the bank be able to use the risky assets as collateral, banks have to pay a certain amount of a fine, but the European Central Bank, the statutory reserve ratio by 2% to 1%, banks will be able to use less collateral to obtain loans.

The five countries each month the total debt due
國家 希臘 愛爾蘭 西班牙 葡萄牙 意大利 五國每月到期債款
country Greece Ireland Spain Portugal Italy the total debt due a month
01-2012 43.60 4.74 154.47 39.63 165.95 408.39
02-2012 25.07 0.04 150.37 42.53 630.50 848.51
03-2012 174.51 62.09 94.86 28.32 516.98 876.76
04-2012 20.68 13.03 268.94 10.11 463.92 776.68
05-2012 115.46 0.00 89.23 3.68 194.47 402.84
06-2012 29.91 6.39 67.58 120.49 111.95 336.32
07-2012 30.49 0.00 315.83 10.54 271.16 628.02
08-2012 96.79 0.05 75.44 3.90 280.27 456.45
09-2012 10.19 0.19 78.15 6.12 263.73 358.38
10-2012 11.75 12.01 316.81 17.75 292.34 650.66
11-2012 0.87 0.00 28.53 0.52 227.78 257.70
12-2012 23.35 0.36 57.93 14.74 407.37 503.75
總債款 582.67 98.90 1698.14 298.33 3826.42 6504.46
資料來源: Bloomberg

這篇博客,寫於09-02-2012,香港時間是0.05am,歐元對美元價格是:132.88/93。
This blog, written in 09-02-2012, Hong Kong time is 0.05am, the price of the euro against the U.S. dollar is: 132.88/93.

我確信:由此刻開始,中期而言,歐元會逐漸下跌。投資者應該可以找緊機會,沽出歐元。

I am sure: from this moment on, the medium term, the euro will gradually decline. Investors should be able to seize the opportunity to sell the euro.

我認為:英倫銀行確定會:增加750億英鎊的量化寬鬆貸款金額,用來挽救英國經濟下滑的危機。假設:英國大量印刷現金,全球的資金,必定會隨即氾濫,資產及商品價格,包括:黃金、澳元、紐西蘭元及加拿大元等貨幣,也會向上升高。

In my opinion: the Bank of England to determine: £ 75 billion quantitative easing loan amount, used to save the crisis of British economic decline. Say: British printing cash, global funds, must be immediately flooding, asset and commodity prices, including: Gold, Australian dollar, New Zealand Dollars and Canadian Dollars and other currencies will rise up.

除了英國政府會推出量化寬鬆政策之外。
2012年2月29日,歐洲中央銀行,也有很大機會推出,長期再融資操作方案,即所謂:歐洲式的量化寬鬆政策。屆時,全球資金將更加氾濫,到那時候,澳洲元向上升破1.1美元;黃金價格,重新升上1,900美元,並非是不可能的事情。

In addition to the British Government will introduce quantitative easing policy.
February 29, 2012, the European Central Bank, but also a lot of possibility will be introduced, long-term refinancing operation of the program, which is called: European-style quantitative easing policy.
At this time, the global capital will be more flooding, the Australian dollar rose to break the $ 1.1; the price of gold, re-increase of $ 1,900 is not impossible.

親愛的讀者們:這裡有一個關鍵點,大家必須明白:無論股市、商品及貨幣,投資者,倘若期望它們會進一步上升,必須配合,以下兩個條件中的其中一項:

Dear Readers: Here’s a key point, we must understand: regardless of the stock market, commodities and currencies. If investors expect that they will rise further, must match the one of the following two conditions:
第一是:美國或環球經濟,要持續走強或有跡象走出陰霾,投資者對前景,預期看好的客觀環境,會帶動金融市場上升;

The first is: the United States or global economy, the continued strength or signs out of the haze, investors on the prospects expected to be optimistic about the objective environment, financial markets will lead to rise;

第二是:各國的中央銀行,不斷印刷鈔票,繼續推行量化寬鬆政策,因為這些舉措,都會有助於投資市場,走強下去。

The second is: central banks continue to print money, continue to implement quantitative easing policy, because these initiatives will contribute to the investment market, the strength continues.

讓我再說一遍,在短時期內,盼望環球經濟好轉,帶動投資市場上升,是一個不設實際的想法。我認為:唯一能把商品、貨幣及金價推升。主要靠的是:各國中央銀行,爭相印刷鈔票。
事實是:各國的中央銀行,都各自準備開動印刷鈔票的機器。

Let me say again, look forward to the global economy improves in a short period of time, to drive investment markets rise, is an impractical idea. In my opinion: only able to commodities, currencies, and gold pushed up.
Largely rely on: the central bank of each country, competing to print money.

The fact is: the national central banks, each ready to start printing money machine.

部份參考資料來自:Part of the reference data from:
blog.roodo.com/onlymusic/archives/18577599.html

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

(Chapter 20)Do you think the 「LTR O」 launched by the European Central Bank, to solve the debt crisis of the Euro area?


(20章)您覺得歐洲中央銀行推出的LTRO,能解決歐元區的債務危機嗎?

您知道「LTRO」是甚麼意義嗎?如果我告訴您說,這是一種不公平的行政舉措,您會同意嗎?

The LTRO “What is the significance?” If I tell you, this is an unfair administrative initiative, will you agree?

長期再融資的操作,簡單來說就是:

Long-term refinancing operation is simply:

首先,歐洲中央銀行,降低銀行抵押品的質素,為銀行提供,抵押品擔保。

First of all, the European Central Bank, reducing the quality of the collateral for the bank to provide loans.

然後,歐洲中央銀行,再以1% 的極低亷利率,向銀行注入資金;銀行領得貸款後,把借款用來購買歐洲國家債券,套取利息差價,銀行再將購買回來的歐洲債券,再向歐洲中央銀行,作為再度融資之抵押品,如是者循環運行。

Then, the European Central Bank, and then to 1% of very low interest rates, into the bank funds; bank after receiving the loan, the loan used to purchase the bonds of European countries, taking interest on the difference. European government bonds, the bank will buy back again to the European Central Bank to take out a mortgage, as a second loan, in the case of cycle run.

這種循環貸款的運作,等同於歐洲中央銀行,使用迂迴方式「送錢」給銀行。

The operation of this revolving loan, equivalent to the European Central Bank, to use the roundabout way to give money to the bank.

這些措施,對其他人來說,根本不公平 。

These measure others simply unfair.

因為,這種財政安排等於是:歐洲中央銀行,開動機器印刷鈔票,把鈔票
給予銀行,銀行買了債券後,大部分的金錢還是流回中央銀行。

So, this financial arrangements: the European Central Bank, start the machine to print money, the money given to banks, the bank bought bonds, most of the money, or flow back into the central bank.

LTRO的全文是:Long Term Refinance Operation,即長期再融資操作。
它為什麼這麼重要?

The LTRO the full text is Long Term Refinance Operation, namely long-term refinancing operations.
Why is it so important?

請看一看以下的現實情況:

Please take a look at the following reality:

西班牙財政部於2011/12/20: 賣出了37億歐元3個月期國債,收益率為1.735%,而11月份同期國債的平均收益率為5.11%。
此次西班牙國家債券,發行超額認購倍數為:2.9倍。

2011/12/20: Spain Ministry of Finance sold 3.7 billion euros of three-month Treasury yield 1.735 percent, while in November the same period the average yield of treasury bonds was 5.11%.
The Spanish government bonds, the issue of over-subscription ratio: 2.9 times.

西班牙6個月期國債收益率從5.227%下降至2.435%,此次發行19.2億歐元,超額認購倍數為4.1倍。

Spain’s six-month Treasury yields fell from 5.227% to 2.435%, the issue of 1.92 billion euros, the oversubscription of 4.1 times.

讓我們來看一看:投資者的收益率大幅下降了。

Let’s look at: substantial decline in the rate of returns to investors.

不用我提醒,你也可以看得出,投資者的收益率,下降的幅度,實在太大了,對於這一點,我並不在意,但背後的原因,令人著迷。

I need not remind, you can see, the rate of return of investors, the decrease is too great, and this, I do not care, but the reasons behind fascinating.

用簡單的話來說,歐洲中央銀行,向銀行的注資行政安排,可能會成為一個新的「套利交易」方法,這一點,連我都不明白,究竟是甚麼一回事了?

In simple words, the European Central Bank, the Bank’s injection of administrative arrangements, may become a new “carry trade", this, even I do not understand what is the matter?

從本質上:銀行從歐洲中央銀行,用極低的利率(1%)貸款,然後,銀行利用這筆金錢,購買主權國家債券,賺取中間的利息差距。

In essence: the banks from the European Central Bank, with a very low interest rates (1%) loan, then, banks use the money, buy the bonds of sovereign states, to earn the interest gap in the middle.

舉例來說:
你今天購買了3個月的西班牙國債,你就可以賺0.735%的收益。
如果購買6個月國債,你會賺1.435%的收益。
這種「套利交易」已經使短期國債收益率,發生了巨大變化。

For example:
You purchase three months of the Spanish government bonds, you can earn 0.735% of the proceeds.
If you buy a 6 month bonds, you will earn 1.435% of the proceeds.
This “carry trade" has made short-term bond yields, has undergone tremendous changes.

親愛的讀者們,相信您也會看得出,這種安排,其中的卓越之處嗎?

Dear readers, I believe you will see that such an arrangement, the excellence?

雖然,歐洲中央銀行的長期再融資操作,並沒有從根本上,解決歐洲金融危機的問題,但它能把債務危機,緩解並推後爆破的時日。

Although, the European Central Bank’s long-term re-financing operations, and not fundamentally solve the problems of the financial crisis in Europe, such an arrangement, however, to the debt crisis, alleviate the time and later blasting.

長期再融資操作,讓歐洲中央銀行,成為整個交易的中間人,因為歐洲中央銀行,不能直接購買,歐洲各國的國債。

Long-term refinancing operations, the European Central Bank to become the middleman of the whole process, because the European Central Bank, not a country, cannot be directly purchased the national debt of European countries.

歐洲中央銀行,只能擔任印刷鈔票的角色,當全球500多間銀行,拿到現鈔後,便可以去購買歐洲各個國家的債券。然後,再把這些債券,返還給歐洲中央銀行,作為接續貸款的抵押品。

European Central Bank, only as the role of printing money, when more than 500 banks worldwide, to get cash, they can go to buy the bonds of the various countries of Europe. Then these bonds, returned to the European Central Bank, as a continuation of the collateral of the loan.

如此一來,這些國家債券,最終:還是回到歐洲中央銀行的保險庫裏。
As a result, the bonds of these countries, and ultimately: or return to the European Central Bank vaults.

這種所謂「解救金融危機」的操作,完全與蓋特納和伯南克,應付金融危機,所採取的辦法,十分類似。

The so-called “rescue the financial crisis," the operation, complete with Geithner and Bernanke, to cope with financial crisis taken by the way, very similar.

因此,金融市場裏,有很多投資者或一些歐洲的國家,都反對使用這種所謂「拯救金融危機」的操作。

Therefore, the financial markets, many investors or some European countries are against the use of this so-called “save the financial crisis" operation.

反對使用上述措施,進行「拯救金融危機」的意見,歸納如下:
Against the use of these measures, “to save the financial crisis," as summarized below:

1. 在現階段,已經負擔巨大風險的銀行:為什麼?還要購買更多的歐洲國家債券?

At this stage, the burden on the banks of the huge risk: why buy more European countries’ bonds?

2.假設:歐洲中央銀行,放置在保險庫的國債,再一次,被評級機構繼續降低評級時。
那麼,歐洲中央銀行保險庫裏,已經裝得滿瀉的國家債券,歐洲中央銀行,會怎麼應付?
因為,在金融危機隨時爆發的情況下,購買負債纍纍的國家債券,畢竟:是充滿風險的買賣。

2. Assumptions: the European Central Bank placed in the vault of the national debt, once again, the rating agencies continue to downgrade.
So, the European Central Bank vault, has already been installed overflows government bonds, the European Central Bank will be how to deal with?
Because of the financial crisis erupt at any case, the purchase of the heavily indebted countries debt, after all: it is full of risks of trading.

第一個問題「為甚麼?」很難予以反駁。

The first question, “Why?" It’s hard to refute.

第二個問題的「假設」就很容易給予解釋。

The second question: “What if" it is easy to explain?

既然,歐洲中央銀行,已經放寬了抵押品的質素條件,那些被「降級」的國家債券,依然可以成為貸款的抵押品;就像美國聯儲局,在第一輪量化寬鬆政策推行時的做法一模一樣,任何證券、債券都可以成為貸款的抵押品。

Since the European Central Bank, has been relaxed conditions of the quality of the collateral bonds, “downgrade" can still become the collateral for the loan; like the U.S. Federal Reserve, the implementation of the first round of quantitative easing policy, practice, exactly the same any securities, bonds can become collateral for the loan.

無論怎樣,歐洲中央銀行,發放貸款的金額越高,投資者的風險偏好,就會越強。

In any case, the European Central Bank, the higher the amount of loans, the risk appetite of investors, the more strong.

長期再融資操作計劃,能夠解決債務危機繼續蔓延下去嗎?
絕對不可能。

Long-term refinancing operations plan to solve the debt crisis continues to spread down?

These initiatives, is absolutely impossible to solve the debt crisis in Europe.

但是,長期再融資操作計劃的優點是:可以推遲危機爆發的時日;可以重新建立金融市場的信心。
各位親愛的讀者:LTRO這個新名詞,實在太重要了,我們應該深入研究其中的內涵吧。

However, the advantages of long-term refinancing operations plan: It can postpone the time of crisis; can re-establish confidence in financial markets.
Dear readers: LTRO this new term, is too important, we should be in-depth study its connotation.

下面的敘述,是來自彭博通訊社的一則消息:

The following narrative is a message from Bloomberg:

人類如果真的是有「未來的一生」的話,我願意成為一家「銀行」,因為每一個政府與國家的中央銀行,都希望「我」能夠一生興旺,甚至,在睡覺的時候,也能賺取金錢。

If man really has a “future life", I would like to become a “bank", because every government and the country’s central bank, and hope that the “I" can life thrive, even in sleep, but also earn the money.

歐洲中央銀行2011年,推出金額達4,891.9億歐元的三年期LTRO,以1厘利率,借款予歐洲銀行,以幫助銀行緩解資金周轉的困難,避免銀行面臨,債務到期時,未能及時從傳統市場籌集得足夠資金,應付債務難關。

European Central Bank in 2011, the introduction of three-year period amounted to 4,891.9 billion euros LTRO, the European Central Bank interest rate to 1% of loans to European banks, to help banks to ease the liquidity difficulties, to avoid facing banks, debt maturity, fail to raise enough funds to cope with debt difficulties from the traditional markets.

另外,英國《金融時報》引述消息稱:因為歐洲銀行對流動性資金的需求不斷增加,歐洲中央銀行的長期再融資操作(LTRO)資金額度,有機會增加到1萬億歐元,歐洲中央銀行,再度增加的現金會再度為歐元增添壓力。

In addition, the British “Financial Times" quoted a source said: because European banks are increasing demand for liquidity, the European Central Bank’s long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) the amount of funds, increased to € 1 trillion, the European Central Bank further increase in cash, will add pressure to the euro again.

2011年,歐洲中央銀行,提供了長達3年,無上限貸款的方式,專門向歐洲銀行體系,貸出數千億歐元資金。當時,獲得了總計523家銀行的回應,最終,貸出了4890億歐元資金,超出了市場的預期。

In 2011, the European Central Bank to provide up to three years, the upper limit of loans, lending hundreds of billions of euros of funds dedicated to the European banking system. At that time, a total of 523 banks responded, ultimately, lent 489 billion euros, exceeding the expectations of the market.

歐洲中央銀行實施的長期再融資操作,有兩層用意:

第一是:通過實施的長期再融資操作,消除市場恐慌情緒,減輕困擾整個歐洲銀行業的融資痛苦,避免出現災難性的“信貸危機”。
The European Central Bank, the implementation of long-term refinancing operations, there are two layers of intention:
The first is: the implementation of long-term refinancing operations the elimination of market panic, reduce the pain of troubled European banking sector as a whole financing, to avoid the disastrous “credit crunch".

根據估算,歐洲銀行業,將有大約6500億歐元短期債務,將會於2012年末到期,來自歐洲中央銀行的這筆貸款,正好可以緩解燃眉之急。

According to estimates, the European banking sector, there will be approximately € 650 billion of short-term debt will be due at the end of 2012, the loan from the European Central Bank, just to alleviate the urgent needs.

第二是:歐洲中央銀行,希望獲得貸款的各家銀行,能夠把資金配置到“欠債纍纍的國家”的高利率國債之上,抑制歐債危機,進一步惡化。

The second is: the European Central Bank, banks to obtain loans, to the allocation of funds to the debt-ridden countries, inhibition of the European debt crisis, and further deterioration.

但是,歐洲中央銀行,卻忽視了最重要的關鍵:中央銀行的這些操作,必須能刺激出嶄新的借貸、消費和投資,才能為解救歐債危機和GDP增長做出貢獻,而事實上,得到這筆貸款的銀行,卻沒有釋出貸款給企業的動力。

However, the European Central Bank, ignoring the most important key: these operations, the central bank must be able to stimulate new lending, consumption and investment in order to contribute to rescue Europe’s debt crisis and GDP growth, in fact, access to these loans to banks, but did not release loans to corporate power.

由於,歐洲銀行業,目前正在面臨降低資產負債表的規模和風險的壓力,同時亟待鞏固資本基礎,因此,進一步增持歐元區成員國國債的興趣有限。
As the European banking industry is facing to reduce the size of the balance sheet and the risk of pressure at the same time urgent need to strengthen capital base, further holdings of euro area member states’ interest in government bonds is limited.

歐洲銀行業,寧願把手中寬裕的流動資金,存放在歐洲中央銀行的隔夜存款戶口當中,或是用於債務再融資。

The European banking industry, preferring the hands of ample liquidity, stored in the European Central Bank’s overnight deposit accounts, or for debt refinancing.

歐洲銀行業,更願意將資金,存放在歐洲中央銀行,而不是拆借給其他銀行,原因就是:擔心交易對手,在歐元區主權債務危機中成為犧牲品。

The European banking sector, are more willing to funds deposited in the European Central Bank, rather than lending to other banks, the reason is: fear of counterparty, to be sacrificed in the euro zone sovereign debt crisis.

不少投資者認為,將歐洲中央銀行啟動3年期,沒有上限的貸款機制,視為一種“變相”的量化寬鬆舉措,因為歐洲中央銀行,並不限制銀行拿這些錢去買入歐元區國家發行的國債。

Many investors believe that the European Central Bank three-year, no ceiling on lending mechanism, regarded as a “disguised" quantitative easing (QE) initiative, because the central bank, and there is no limit to the bank, take these loans to buy bonds issued by euro area countries.

然而,正是由於銀行業,不願意購買陷入債務危機的國家所發行的國家債券,因此,歐洲中央銀行目前推行,變相的量化寬鬆舉措的效果,可能遠遠不及,直接推出量化寬鬆政策,更加有功效。

However, the combination of banking, not willing to buy the country into a debt crisis, the issue of state bonds, therefore, the European Central Bank is currently implementing a disguised form of quantitative easing effect, may be far less than the direct introduction of the quantitative easing policy more effective.

歐洲中央銀行的第二批,長達三年期的再融資操作,將會在2012年2月29日進行,但預計效果也不會明顯。

European Central Bank, the second batch of up to three years of refinancing operations, will be February 29, 2012, it is expected that the effect is not significantly.

目前看來,歐洲中央銀行,推行的所有舉措,只是為應對歐洲債務困局,爭取多一些時間。

Now it seems that the European Central Bank, the implementation of all initiatives, just in response to the European debt predicament to get some more time.

歐洲的財金官員,若要挽回金融市場的信心,歐洲中央銀行的領導階層,還得肩負更大的使命。“最終貸款人”這頂帽子,是一定要扣在這一羣領袖的頭頂上。對歐元而言,歐洲貨幣的增發,對歐元的前景,最終會令歐元,逐漸帶來下跌的壓力。

European financial officials to restore confidence in financial markets, the leadership of the European Central Bank, have to shoulder a greater mission.
“Lender of last resort" This hat is sure to buckle on the top of the head of this group of leaders.
The increase in European currencies, the prospects for the euro, will eventually and gradually bring the downward pressure of the euro currency.

斯圖加特的Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg銀行分析師Jens-Oliver Niklasch形容:
歐洲中央銀行提出的長期再融資操作是:
「這基本上是從天上掉下來的錢,條件無可挑剔,每一個人,都希望分得一杯羹」。

Jens-Oliver Niklasch, an analyst at Landesbank, Bank of Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, describe:
The European Central Bank raised the long-term refinancing operations are:
“It’s basically money that falls from the sky, impeccable condition, everyone wants a slice."

歐洲中央銀行設想:只要用極低成本,向銀行注入大量資金,銀行將會積極,申請這塊天上掉下來的餡餅。

The European Central Bank recommends that: just use a very low cost, and to inject a lot of money to the bank, the Bank will actively apply for this come out of the pie.

歐洲中央銀行,為了緩解銀行流動性現鈔的短缺,推出對銀行的3年期融資貸款計劃,金融市場一直希望:這次LTRO項目,能夠等同於一次對銀行的變相救助,因為更多的流動性現金,能夠解決主權債務的原則:國債必須償還的現實。

European Central Bank, in order to alleviate the shortage of bank liquidity cash, launched on the banks of the three-year financing Loan Scheme (LTRO), financial markets have been hoping: financing projects can be equated at once disguised rescue of banks, because of the increased more liquidity in cash, to address the reality of sovereign debt, national debt must be repaid.

這項LTRO計劃,增加了一些具備資格,從歐洲中央銀行融資的銀行名單,實際上:就是將借款合格抵押品的要求降低了,銀行由於能夠使用,風險資產作為抵押品,銀行雖然要支付一定數額的罰款,但是,歐洲中央銀行,將法定存款準備金比率,由2%降至1%之後,銀行就能夠使用更少的抵押品,來獲得貸款了。

LTRO this plan, an increase of some qualification, list of banks financing from the European Central Bank, in fact: the European Central Bank, the loan must be eligible collateral requirements to reduce the bank be able to use the risky assets as collateral, banks have to pay a certain amount of a fine, but the European Central Bank, the statutory reserve ratio by 2% to 1%, banks will be able to use less collateral to obtain loans.

The five countries each month the total debt due
希臘 愛爾蘭 西班牙 葡萄牙 意大利 五國每月到期債款
Greece Ireland Spain Portugal Italy the total debt due a month
01-2012 43.60 4.74 154.47 39.63 165.95 408.39
02-2012 25.07 0.04 150.37 42.53 630.50 848.51
03-2012 174.51 62.09 94.86 28.32 516.98 876.76
04-2012 20.68 13.03 268.94 10.11 463.92 776.68
05-2012 115.46 0.00 89.23 3.68 194.47 402.84
06-2012 29.91 6.39 67.58 120.49 111.95 336.32
07-2012 30.49 0.00 315.83 10.54 271.16 628.02
08-2012 96.79 0.05 75.44 3.90 280.27 456.45
09-2012 10.19 0.19 78.15 6.12 263.73 358.38
10-2012 11.75 12.01 316.81 17.75 292.34 650.66
11-2012 0.87 0.00 28.53 0.52 227.78 257.70
12-2012 23.35 0.36 57.93 14.74 407.37 503.75
總債款 582.67 98.90 1698.14 298.33 3826.42 6504.46
資料來源: Bloomberg

這篇博客,寫於09-02-2012,香港時間是0.05am,歐元對美元價格是:132.88/93。
This blog, written in 09-02-2012, Hong Kong time is 0.05am, the price of the euro against the U.S. dollar is: 132.88/93.

我確信:由此刻開始,中期而言,歐元會逐漸下跌。投資者應該可以找緊機會,沽出歐元。

I am sure: from this moment on, the medium term, the euro will gradually decline. Investors should be able to seize the opportunity to sell the euro.

我認為:英倫銀行確定會:增加750億英鎊的量化寬鬆貸款金額,用來挽救英國經濟下滑的危機。假設:英國大量印刷現金,全球的資金,必定會隨即氾濫,資產及商品價格,包括:黃金、澳元、紐西蘭元及加拿大元等貨幣,也會向上升高。

In my opinion: the Bank of England to determine: £ 75 billion quantitative easing loan amount, used to save the crisis of British economic decline. Say: British printing cash, global funds, must be immediately flooding, asset and commodity prices, including: Gold, Australian dollar, New Zealand Dollars and Canadian Dollars and other currencies will rise up.

除了英國政府會推出量化寬鬆政策之外。
2012年2月29日,歐洲中央銀行,也有很大機會推出,長期再融資操作方案,即所謂:歐洲式的量化寬鬆政策。屆時,全球資金將更加氾濫,到那時候,澳洲元向上升破1.1美元;黃金價格,重新升上1,900美元,並非是不可能的事情。

In addition to the British Government will introduce quantitative easing policy.
February 29, 2012, the European Central Bank, but also a lot of possibility will be introduced, long-term refinancing operation of the program, which is called: European-style quantitative easing policy.
At this time, the global capital will be more flooding, the Australian dollar rose to break the $ 1.1; the price of gold, re-increase of $ 1,900 is not impossible.

親愛的讀者們:這裡有一個關鍵點,大家必須明白:無論股市、商品及貨幣,投資者,倘若期望它們會進一步上升,必須配合,以下兩個條件中的其中一項:

Dear Readers: Here’s a key point, we must understand: regardless of the stock market, commodities and currencies. If investors expect that they will rise further, must match the one of the following two conditions:
第一是:美國或環球經濟,要持續走強或有跡象走出陰霾,投資者對前景,預期看好的客觀環境,會帶動金融市場上升;

The first is: the United States or global economy, the continued strength or signs out of the haze, investors on the prospects expected to be optimistic about the objective environment, financial markets will lead to rise;

第二是:各國的中央銀行,不斷印刷鈔票,繼續推行量化寬鬆政策,因為這些舉措,都會有助於投資市場,走強下去。

The second is: central banks continue to print money, continue to implement quantitative easing policy, because these initiatives will contribute to the investment market, the strength continues.

讓我再說一遍,在短時期內,盼望環球經濟好轉,帶動投資市場上升,是一個不設實際的想法。我認為:唯一能把商品、貨幣及金價推升。主要靠的是:各國中央銀行,爭相印刷鈔票。
事實是:各國的中央銀行,都各自準備開動印刷鈔票的機器。

Let me say again, look forward to the global economy improves in a short period of time, to drive investment markets rise, is an impractical idea. In my opinion: only able to commodities, currencies, and gold pushed up.
Largely rely on: the central bank of each country, competing to print money.

The fact is: the national central banks, each ready to start printing money machine.

部份參考資料來自:Part of the reference data from:
blog.roodo.com/onlymusic/archives/18577599.html

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

(chapter 19)Quantitative easing policy, the U.S. economy began to regain their upward trajectory?


(chapter 19)Quantitative easing policy, the U.S. economy began to regain their upward trajectory?.

(chapter 19)Quantitative easing policy, the U.S. economy began to regain their upward trajectory?
(第19章)量化寬鬆貨幣政策能夠令美國經濟開始重拾上升軌道?

(一) 量化寬鬆:是一貨幣政策,由中央銀行,通過公開市場操作模式,提高貨幣供應量,可以視之為「無中生有」地,創造出指定金額的貨幣,也可以簡單化地形容是增加印刷鈔票數量。實際操作是,中央銀行通過公開市場操作,向金融市場購入債券、證券等票據,令到各間個別銀行,在中央銀行開設的結算戶口內,增加資金供應,間接為各間銀行體系,注入新的流動性資金。

(1) Quantitative easing: a monetary policy by the central bank increase the money supply through open market operation mode can be regarded as “nothing" to create a specified amount of currency can also be simplistically described the increase in printing money. The actual operation, the central bank through open market operations to financial market purchase of bonds, securities and other instruments, so that each individual bank in the clearing accounts of the central bank to increase the money supply, and indirectly for the banking system and inject new the flow of funds.

「量化寬鬆」中的「量化」是指:將會創造指定數量金額的貨幣。
「寬鬆」:是指減低銀行的資金壓力。

“Quantitative easing" in the “Quantitative" means: will create a specified number of the amount of currency. “Easing “: means to reduce the pressure on bank funding.

中央銀行利用憑空創造出來的金錢,在公開市場購買政府債券、借錢給接受存款機構、向銀行購買資產等。

The central bank created money to buy government bonds on the open market, lend money to the deposit-taking institutions, from banks to buy assets.

這些措施,都會引起政府債券收益率的下降,銀行同業隔夜利率的降低,各間銀行因此擁有大量只能賺取極低利息的資產。中央銀行期望,各間個別銀行,會因此較願意提供貸款給企業,以賺取回報,紓緩市場的資金壓力。

These measures will lead to the decline in government bond yields, reduced the overnight interbank interest rate, the bank therefore has a large number can only earn a very low interest assets. The central bank expects the individual banks will be more willing to offer loans to enterprises, in order to earn a return and relieve the financial pressure of the slow market.

當銀根已經鬆動,或購買的資產,將隨着通脹而貶值(如國庫債券)時,量化寬鬆會使貨幣傾向貶值。由於量化寬鬆有可能增加貨幣貶值的風險,政府通常會在經濟面對通縮時,推出量化寬鬆的措施。而持續的量化寬鬆,會增加通脹的風險。

Quantitative easing monetary policy has been loose, or purchase assets, as inflation and devaluation (such as Treasury bonds), a tendency to make the currency devaluation. Quantitative easing is likely to increase the risk of currency devaluation the government is usually in the economy facing deflation, the introduction of quantitative easing measures. Continued quantitative easing, will increase the risk of inflation.

(二) 政府推行量化寬鬆政策,可以刺激貸款數量:

(2) The Government’s quantitative easing policy can stimulate the number of loans:

當銀行保持一定比例的存款準備金之後,其餘的資金,便可以作為放貸之用。從量化寬鬆的過程中,銀行增加的存款,可以通過借貸,再創造出更多的貨幣供應,即所謂存款倍數效應(deposit multiplication)。

Banks to maintain a certain proportion of the reserve, the remaining funds can be used as lending to enterprises. From the process of quantitative easing, the Bank increased deposits by borrowing, to re-create more of the money supply, the so-called deposit multiplier effect (deposit multiplication).

例如,假設存款準備金的要求是10%,量化寬鬆每創造$10,000,可以產生的最終貨幣供應為$100,000。

For example, assume that the deposit reserve requirement is 10%, quantitative easing to create $ 10,000, the final money supply is $ 100,000.

量化寬鬆措施,向本地銀行同業市場,提供充足流動資金,最低限度能夠降低金融市場的借貸成本,政府最終期望,所有借款人都能得到好處,以支持整體經濟運作。一般來說,量化寬鬆可支持整體經濟;暢順運行,並有助紓緩或遏抑,經濟逆轉所帶來的影響。

Quantitative easing measures to provide adequate liquidity to local banks in the interbank market, at least to reduce the cost of borrowing in the financial market, the government eventually expect all borrowers can benefit from in order to support the overall operation of the economy. Quantitative easing measures to provide adequate liquidity to local banks in the interbank market, at least to reduce the cost of borrowing in the financial market, the government eventually expect all borrowers can benefit from in order to support the overall operation of the economy.
In general, the implementation of quantitative eases, so that the overall economy, smooth running, and help alleviate the economic downturn impact.

量化寬鬆措施,被形容為「開動印刷鈔票機器」,量化寬鬆措施,其實只是調整電腦上的帳目。

但是,一個國家要實行量化寬鬆,必須對其貨幣有控制權;所以,舉例來說,歐元區內,個別國家,卻不能單方面推出量化寬鬆措施。

Quantitative easing measures have been described as “start printing money machine" quantitative easing measures in fact just adjust the accounts on the computer.
However, for a country to implement quantitative easing, must be its currency control, for example, within the euro zone, the individual countries, but cannot unilaterally launch of quantitative easing measures.

(三) 實行量化寬鬆措施的例子:

(3) Examples of the implementation of quantitative easing measures:

當以減息來增加貨幣供應行不通的時候,中央銀行便可能推出量化寬鬆措施;通常在利率接近零的時候出現。其中,日本銀行於2000年代初期,實行量化寬鬆措施,以對付通縮。針對2007年開始的環球金融危機,美國聯邦儲備局的伯南克,以量化寬鬆手段應付。英國也同樣以量化寬鬆作為金融政策,以減低金融危機的影響。

To cut interest rates to increase the money supply does not work, the central bank may introduce quantitative easing measures; usually when interest rates near zero. Bank of Japan in the early 2000s, the implementation of quantitative easing measures to deal with deflation. The global financial crisis began in 2007, the U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke, the use of the quantitative easing policy to tackle the crisis. Britain also use quantitative easing policy as a financial policy to reduce the impact of financial crisis.

(四) 什麼是量化寬鬆的貨幣政策?

(4)What is quantitative easing of monetary policy?

量化寬鬆的貨幣政策又可以稱為「定量寬鬆」的貨幣政策。

The quantitative easing of monetary policy called “quantitative easing" monetary policy.

一般來說,中央銀行在設立貨幣政策的時候,會將利率目標放在一個特定的短期利率水平之上,中央銀行會通過,向銀行資金市場,注入或者是抽離資金,達到資金利率,處於中央銀行認為是利率目標的位置。

Generally speaking, the central bank in the establishment of monetary policy, the interest rate target on specific short-term interest rates above the level of the central bank by bank funds market, injected or pulled out of funds to achieve the funds rate, in the central bank rate target position.

此時,中央銀行希望調控的是:信貸的成本。

At this point, the central bank hopes that the regulation is: the cost of credit.

定量寬鬆貨幣是指:貨幣政策制定者,將政策關注點,從控制銀行系統的資金價格,轉向資金數量。貨幣政策的目標,就是為了保證貨幣政策,維持在寬鬆的環境下。

Quantitative easing means: monetary policy-makers, policy concerns, from the price of money to control the banking system, steering the amount of money. Monetary policy objective is to ensure that monetary policy remained in a relaxed environment.

對於這個政策而言,「量」是意味著貨幣供應,而「寬鬆」則表示貨幣數量會有很多,當然,定量寬鬆的貨幣政策,也有特定的指標。

For the purposes of this policy, the “quantity" means that the money supply, and “loose" said the quantity of money there will be many, of course, the quantitative easing of monetary policy, there are specific indicators.

採用「定量寬鬆」的貨幣政策,往往意味著,政府將會放棄傳統的貨幣政策,因為對於中央銀行而言,他們不可能,既可以控制資金的價格,又可以控制資金的數量。

“Quantitative easing" monetary policy, often means that the government will abandon the traditional monetary policy, for the central bank, they cannot either control the price of funds, can control the amount of funds.

(五) 政府為甚麼要採取「開動印鈔機」的辦法應付金融風暴?

(5)Why is the Government to take “printing money" to cope with financial turmoil?

因為國家處理貨幣當局,通過大量印刷鈔票,在金融市場上,購買國債或企業債券等方式,向金融市場,注入大量資金,目的是降低市場利率,刺激經濟增長。

Countries to deal with the monetary authorities, by printing money to buy government bonds or corporate bonds in the financial markets, a large injection of funds to financial markets, the aim is to reduce market interest rates to stimulate economic growth.

實施量化寬鬆政策,通常是指:當中央銀行採用,常規的貨幣政策,對刺激經濟無效的情況下,才被管理貨幣當局採用,因為這是「非常規」的貨幣管理政策。

The implementation of the quantitative easing policy, usually means: central banks, conventional monetary policy to stimulate the economy invalid, was the management of the monetary authorities adopted because it is “unconventional" monetary policies.

(六) 日本的量化寬鬆的貨幣政策 :

(6)quantitative easing monetary policy in Japan:

最先採用量化寬鬆貨幣政策的國家是日本。

The countries of the world’s first quantitative easing monetary policy to cope with deflation are the Japanese government.

2001年,日本中央銀行,作出了一個驚人的舉措,他們採用了一個新型的貨幣政策工具。當時,日本政府,在零利率基礎上,實行進一步的擴張性貨幣政策,大量增加貨幣的供應,用來應對經濟層面上出現的通貨緊縮。在此之前,世界上,並沒有任何一個國家,曾經使用過這一種增加貨幣供應的政策。

In 2001, Japan’s central bank, made an amazing move, they have adopted a new monetary policy tools. At that time, the Japanese government on the basis of the zero interest rate, to implement further expansionary monetary policy, a substantial increase in the money supply, used to deal with the economic level, the emergence of deflation. Prior to this, the world, there is no any country, ever used this kind of policy to increase the money supply.

日本所採用的辦法是:將大量超額資金,注入銀行體系中,使長期及短期利率,都處於較低水平,目的是刺激經濟增長,對抗通貨緊縮。

Japan is this: a lot of excess funds injected into the banking system, so that long-term and short-term interest rates are at a low level, the purpose is to stimulate economic growth and fight deflation.

(七)量化寬鬆政策,在刺激經濟走出通貨收縮方面的作用,可以從兩個方面來體現:

(7)Quantitative easing policy, the role of stimulating the economy out of deflation, from two to reflect:

第一方面是:低利率的環境,有利於企業,將成本維持在較低水平,也有利於促進消費,從而對經濟增長,起到積極的推動作用;

The first aspect is: the low interest rate environment, conducive to business, keeping costs at a low level, but also conducive to promoting consumption, which play a positive role in promoting economic growth;

另一方面,充足的資金,還可以使背負著大量不良貸款的日本銀行業,無需擔憂流動性資金的不足,並且,可以在化解不良貸款問題上,採取較為主動的行動,推動金融業,甚至,在其他虧損產業中,能夠進行結構性重新組合。

On the other hand, adequate funding, can also be saddled with a large number of non-performing loans of Japanese banks, do not worry about the lack of liquidity, and to resolve non-performing loans, to take more proactive action to promote financial sector, even other loss industry, structural regroup.

日本是世界上,首先採取貨幣寬鬆政策,應付金融危機的國家,由日本的實踐經驗,可以得到證明:金融危機,會極大地打擊金融業和金融市場的信心。金融市場的「去杠桿化」,經歷的過程會很漫長,因此,在特定的時期內,金融市場的所有資金交易,都會很困難地正常運作;

Japan is the world’s first monetary easing, to cope with the financial crisis in the country, and by practical experience in Japan, can be proved: the financial crisis will be greatly undermined the confidence of the financial sector and financial markets. Financial markets, “deleveraging" going through the process will be very long, in a specific period of time, all financial transactions of the financial markets will be very difficult to operate normally;

另外,由於經濟的全球化和貨幣市場的自由化,一個國家,無限制地增加流動性資金供應,未必能夠刺激本地銀行業對本國的企業資金放貸。也就是說,當資金的回報率,境外與境內有差異的時候,資金會毫不遲疑地選擇逃出境外。

In addition, due to the globalization of the economy and the currency market liberalization, a country, the unlimited increase in the supply of liquidity may not be able to stimulate the local banking sector to the national enterprise funds to lend. That is, when the rate of return of capital, foreign and domestic differences, the funds would not hesitate to choose to escape outside.

(七) 量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對全球經濟的影響:

(8) Quantitative easing monetary policy, the impact of the global economy:

量化寬鬆貨幣政策是一把雙刃劍。因為,實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,政府會向金融市場,注入大量現金,這些舉措,有助於緩解金融市場,資金緊張的狀況,有助於經濟恢復增長。

Quantitative easing monetary policy is a double-edged sword. Because the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy, the Government will inject large amounts of cash to the financial markets, these initiatives will help alleviate the financial markets, shortages of funds to help the economy return to growth.

但是,從長遠角度來看,會埋下通貨膨脹的隱患,在經濟增長停滯的情況下,或許,會引起滯漲。

However, from the long-term point of view, will become a hidden danger of inflation, in the case of stagnant economic growth, perhaps, it will cause stagflation.

另外,量化寬鬆貨幣政策,還會導致本國貨幣大幅貶值,在刺激本國出口的同時,惡化相關貿易體的經濟形式,導致本國與其他國家之間的貿易摩擦等等。

In addition, the quantitative easing of monetary policy, but also led to sharp depreciation of domestic currency to stimulate the country’s exports at the same time, deterioration of the economic form of the relevant trade body, leading to trade friction between the country and other countries.

對於全球經濟霸主的美國而言,實施這種激進的量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對美國和全球經濟的影響,更是不容小覷。

For global economic hegemony of the United States, the implementation of this radical quantitative easing monetary policy, the U.S. and global economy, should not be underestimated.

(九)量化寬鬆貨幣政策,埋下全球通貨膨脹的隱患 :

(9) Quantitative easing monetary policy, planted the hidden dangers of global inflation:

量化寬鬆貨幣政策,實質上,是在脫離實體經濟需求的情況下,開動印鈔票機器,向金融市場,輸入流動性資金。

Quantitative easing monetary policy, in essence, in the case of out of the real economy needs to start printing money machine, enter the liquidity to financial markets.

在市場信心缺失,投資萎縮的情況下,量化寬鬆貨幣政策向市場釋放的流動性資金,不會即時導致通貨膨脹,但是,一旦經濟轉趨好轉,投資信心恢復,過度釋放的流動性資金,便可能會轉化為通貨膨脹。

Lack of market confidence and investment shrinking, quantitative easing monetary policy for the release of liquidity to the market, does not immediately lead to inflation, but once the economy turned better, to restore investors’ confidence, excessive release of liquidity, they may translate into inflation.

尤其是對於美國而言,由於美元是世界儲備貨幣,而且世界主要商品定價,都是以美元為基準。美國聯儲局,實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,將會導致美元大幅貶值,從而引發,新的一輪資源、商品的價格上漲,埋下全球通脹的隱患。

Especially for the United States dollar is the world’s reserve currency, but also the world’s major commodity pricing, are in U.S. dollars as the base. U.S. Federal Reserve, the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy will lead to the sharp depreciation of the dollar, giving rise of a resource, commodity prices, planted the hidden dangers of global inflation.

另外,美國聯儲局的巨額購買債券計劃,推倒了多米諾骨牌。

In addition, the huge U.S. Fed to buy bonds pulled down the dominoes.

其他國家的經濟體系,為了阻止本國貨幣,相對於美元而升值,衝擊本國的出口行業,進一步惡化本國經濟,因此,這些國家便會仿效實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,進一步加劇了,各個國家,未來的通脹壓力。

Economies of other countries, in order to prevent their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar and the appreciation of the impact on the local export industries, further deterioration of the national economy, therefore, these countries will follow the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy, further exacerbating the various countries, the future inflationary pressures.

這也是為什麼短期內,量化寬鬆貨幣政策,會風靡全球主要經濟體的原因。如果量化寬鬆貨幣政策,未能使美國經濟走上復蘇之路,經濟不景氣,將會導致滯漲局面出現。

This is why the short term, quantitative easing monetary policy will be popular in the reasons of the world’s major economies. Quantitative easing monetary policy, cannot make the U.S. economy to the path of recovery, the economic downturn will lead to the emergence of stagflation situation.

(十)量化寬鬆貨幣政策,會惡化相關貿易體的經濟形勢 :

(10) Quantitative easing monetary policy will worsen the economic situation of the relevant trade:

量化寬鬆貨幣政策的最直接的表現之一,便是使本國貨幣大幅貶值,雖然有利於本國的出口行業,但是,也會導致相關經濟體系國家的貨幣升值。

Quantitative easing monetary policy, the most direct expression of one is to make the substantial devaluation of the national currency, although there are beneficial to the country’s export industry, but also lead to the countries of the economic system, currency appreciation.

例如:美國聯儲局宣佈巨額注資計劃當日,世界主要貨幣,相對於美元而言,都大幅升值,其中:歐元升值3.5%,日元升值2.4%,英鎊升值1.6%,加元升值1.7%。

For example: the U.S. Federal Reserve announced the date of the capital infusion program, the world’s major currencies, as opposed to the U.S. dollar, are the sharp appreciation, of which: euro appreciation of 3.5%, 2.4% appreciation of the yen, the pound appreciated by 1.6 percent, Canada currency appreciated by 1.7 percent.

這樣一來便會削弱,相關貿易體系,對美國的出口能力,尤其對於那些處於金融危機漩渦中,出口導向型的新興經濟體系而言。

As a result, will be weakened, and the relevant trading system, the ability to export to the United States, especially for those in financial crisis, export-oriented countries of emerging economies.

英、美、日等全球主要經濟體系,大量的量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對本國經濟造成雪上加霜的打擊,並有可能引發有關聯的國家,彼此的貿易摩擦。

Britain, the United States, Japan and other major global economies, a large number of quantitative easing monetary policy, a worse blow to the national economy and may lead to the associated countries, each other’s trade friction.

(十一)美國聯儲局,大量購買國債,會降低相應持有美國國債國家的外匯資產價值 :

(11) The U.S. Federal Reserve, a large purchase of government bonds will be reduced, corresponding to the country’s foreign exchange value of the assets in U.S. Treasury bonds held:

雖然,本次金融危機,起源於美國。但是,由於美國強大的經濟實力和美元獨一無二的國際地位,美債一度因避險功能,而大受避險的投機者歡迎。

The financial crisis originated in the United States.
However, due to the powerful economic strength and unique international status, the U.S. debt was due to hedging, thus greatly speculators welcome.

包括中國在內的很多國家政府,在本國的外匯資產中,美國國債,都佔有重要地位。

Many governments, including China, the country’s foreign exchange assets in U.S. Treasury bonds, occupy an important position.

美國聯儲局大舉購買美國國債,將推升美國國債價格,但是,降低了國債收益率,從而使持有美國國債國家的外匯資產,存在非常巨大的貶值風險。

The U.S. Federal Reserve aggressively buy U.S. treasury bonds, pushing up U.S. Treasury prices, however, lower yields, so that the holders of the country’s foreign exchange assets of U.S. Treasury bonds, there is a very large devaluation risk.

美國實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,那一天:3月18日當日,美國基準l0年期政府債券收益率從3.01%降至2.5%,開創1981年以來最大單日跌幅。

The United States to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, and that day: on March 18, the U.S. benchmark l0-year government bond yields fell from 3.01% to 2.5%, creating the largest single-day decline since 1981.

對於美國而言,美元貶值和國債收益率降低,都將會導致巨額外匯資金,從美國流出,對於當前仍處於金融危機中的美國經濟而言,也是不得不面對的殘酷現實。

For the United States, the depreciation of the dollar and bond yields lower, will lead to huge amounts of foreign exchange funds, outflows from the United States, the U.S. economy is still in financial crisis, also had to face the harsh reality.

量化寬鬆貨幣政策,是一種非常激進的政策,雖有利於幫助深陷金融危機中的發達經濟體系,緩解信貸緊張的狀況,增加經濟擴張的動力。

The quantitative easing policy is a very radical policy, although beneficial to the help of deep financial crisis in developed economies to ease the tight credit situation, increasing the momentum of economic expansion.

但是,從對全球經濟的大局來看,世界主要經濟體系,尤其是美國實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,是一種「損人不利己」的行為,它埋下了全球通脹的種子,並有可能導致出口外向型,新型經濟體系,各個國家的經濟,進一步減少外匯儲備資產,令本國貨幣面對,大幅貶值等問題的產生。

However, look at the overall situation on the global economy, the world’s major economies, especially the United States to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, is " a dog in the manger" behavior, it planted the seeds of global inflation, and may lead to export-oriented, new economies, each country’s economy, further reducing the foreign currency reserve assets. These countries have to face the national currency, the sharp depreciation of generation.

(十二)美國聯儲局,量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對中國經濟的影響:

(12) U.S. Fed, quantitative easing monetary policy, the impact of China’s economy:

在未來一段時間里,隨著國際金融機構「去杠桿化」進程的逐漸結束,美國聯儲局,向金融市場注入的大量流動資金,會通過各種渠道,流向包括中國在內的新興市場國家。

In the next period of time, with the international financial institutions “to the gradual end of the deleveraging process”, the U.S. Federal Reserve injected liquidity to financial markets, through various channels, flows to emerging market countries, including China.

同時,美國聯邦基金利率,已經降至接近零利率的水平,日前中國的一年期存款利率,經過四次降息到2.25%,還是遠高於美國聯邦基準利率水平,短期內,美國聯儲局加息的可能性不會很大,中國與美國的利息差距局面,將會繼續維持。

Meanwhile, the U.S. federal funds rate has fallen to a level close to zero interest rates, a few days ago China’s one-year deposit interest rate, after four interest rate cut to 2.25%, still much higher than the U.S. federal benchmark interest rates in the short term, the United States Federal Reserve Board, to increase the possibility of interest, will not be great, the interest gap between the situation in China and the United States will continue to maintain.

在這種情形下,短期內,國際資金,流入中國的趨勢,還會持續。

In this case, short-term international capital flows into China trend will continue.

然而,一旦美國經濟進入持續復蘇,美國聯儲局,必定會逐步退出量化寬鬆政策,並且會逐漸收緊銀根。美國拆借市場利率和聯邦基金利率,將會上升。

However, once the U.S. economy into a sustained recovery, the U.S. Federal Reserve must gradually withdraw from the quantitative easing policy, and will gradually tighten the money supply. Interbank market interest rates and the federal funds rate will rise.

這些舉措,會使美元升值,並會促使部分套利交易者,平倉離開市場。

These initiatives will make the dollar, and will lead to some arbitrage traders leave the market.

一旦美元企穩走強,國債利率隨即上升,商品價格會大幅回落,資產泡沫可能隨之而爆破。

Once the U.S. dollar stabilized strong, then rise in Treasury rates, commodity prices will fall sharply, asset bubbles may be followed by blasting.

大量投機性資金隨後便會撤出中國,造成資產、商品價格的大幅波動,給中國的金融穩定,埋下巨大的隱患。

A large number of speculative capitals will be followed by withdrawal, resulting in assets, the sharp fluctuations in commodity prices, China’s financial stability, and laid a huge risk.

20世紀90年代,東南亞國家的資產泡沫破裂,因而引發了金融危機。這一些深刻教訓,投資者必須引以為鑒。

In the 1990s, the Southeast Asian country’s asset bubble burst, thereby triggering the financial crisis. This is a profound lesson, investors must learn a lesson.

量化寬鬆貨幣政策,加大了美元匯率的波動,增加了人民幣匯率機制改革的難度。2005年7月21日,自從匯率形成機制改革以來,人民幣匯率水平,似乎也發生了明顯的變化。

Quantitative easing monetary policy, increase the volatility of the dollar, an increase of RMB exchange rate mechanism, the difficulty of reform. July 21, 2005, since the exchange rate formation mechanism reform, the RMB exchange rate, seems to have occurred a significant change.

然而,從2008年7月到2009年3月,金融危機急劇惡化,國際金融市場的投資者,避險情緒升溫,國際金融機構和企業紛紛將資金撤回美國或兌換成美元資產,導致美元兌換主要貨幣匯率,保持升值趨勢。

However, from July 2008 to March 2009, the financial crisis, a sharp deterioration in international financial markets, investors, risk aversion, international financial institutions and enterprises have the funds to withdraw the United States or converted into U.S. dollars of assets, leading to the dollar mainly currency exchange rates, to keep the appreciation trend.

在這些背景下,人民幣事實又重歸,緊跟着美元的匯率制度,人民幣兌美元的波動幅度,維持在6.82~6.84之間波動。

In these circumstances, the RMB exchange rate, again followed by the dollar’s exchange rate regime, the fluctuations of the RMB against the U.S. dollar to maintain fluctuated in the range of 6.82 to 6.84.

2009年3月下旬,美國量化寬鬆貨幣政策推出,導致美國通貨膨脹預期上升、國債融資風險增加,美元融資利差交易活躍,加上全球經濟回復上升,令到美元作為避險工具的需求,逐漸減弱,原本以美元資產保值的資金,重新追逐其他有高收益回報的資產,美元又再度,呈現貶值趨勢。

In late March 2009, the U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy was launched in the U.S. inflation is expected to rise, increased risk of debt financing, leading to the financing of the dollar carry trade is active, together with the global economy returns to rise, so that the U.S. dollar as hedging instruments demand waning, originally preservation funds dollar-denominated assets, re-chase the other high-yield return on assets, the dollar again, showing a depreciation trend.

隨著美元匯價弱勢,人民幣匯率,自從2009年3月份後,連續7個月,呈現貶值態勢,名義有效匯率和實際有效匯率,分別貶值9.17%和7.67%。

With the weak U.S. dollar, the RMB exchange rate since March 2009 after seven consecutive months, showed a depreciation trend of the nominal effective exchange rate and real effective exchange rate, depreciation of 9.17% and 7.67% respectively.

在美元貶值和短期國際資本湧入的背景下,人民幣升值壓力,再次顯現,中國政府,不太可能選擇大幅升值的策略。

The context of the depreciation of the dollar, and the influx of short-term international capital, RMB appreciation pressure, appeared again, the Chinese government, and less likely to choose the sharp appreciation of the strategy.

首先,在大幅升值方式下,熱錢會在很短暫的時間內,就可以獲得升值帶來的收益,熱錢獲利的成本將大大降低。

First, the sharp appreciation of the way, the hot money in a very short period of time will be able to get the appreciation of the benefits the cost of the hot money profits will be greatly reduced.

其次,中國也很難找到一個,均衡匯率點,因為,中國無法計算出,怎樣的升值幅度,才是一個合適的水平。

Secondly, it is difficult to find a point of equilibrium exchange rate, because China cannot be calculated, how the rate of appreciation is an appropriate level.

如果中國採取大幅升值策略,人民幣匯率,很可能出現超越調節現象,資金流向逆轉的風險增大。

Assume that China has adopted the strategy of the sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is likely to occur beyond the adjustments, the reversal of capital flows, is very risky.

假設,一次性大幅升值以後,如果沒有升到適當的位置,金融市場,有可能,還會有下一次的升值預期,這樣便會造成過多資金的不斷流入。

Assumptions one-off revaluation, if not rise to the appropriate location, financial markets, it is possible, there will be the next expected appreciation, and this will cause too much funds inflow.

無論出現上述哪一種情形,都會造成資金,大量進入中國或急速撤離中國的現象,因而產生巨大的金融風險。

No matter what kind of circumstances, will result in capital poured into China or rapidly withdrawing from the Chinese, the phenomenon that results in enormous financial risk.

再者,匯率大幅升值,對中國出口型的企業,將帶來較大衝擊,經濟可能出現大幅下滑,進而引發嚴重的失業問題。

Furthermore, the sharp exchange rate appreciation, will be a big impact on China’s export-oriented enterprises, the economy may have fallen sharply, triggering a serious unemployment problem.

美國推出史無前例的量化寬鬆政策,對中國貨幣政策最直接的影響是:中國只能被動跟隨美國進行調整。

The United States launched an unprecedented quantitative easing policy, the most direct impact of monetary policy to China: China can only be adjusted passively follow the United States.

假設,中國不跟隨美國和全球的量化寬鬆政策,人民幣將可能產生更大的升值壓力,帶來更多的資金流入。

Assumptions, China does not follow the U.S. and global quantitative easing policy, the RMB will likely have a greater appreciation of the pressure to bring more capital inflows.

如果,中國緊跟美國的政策,由於中國的家庭和金融機構,並不存在「去杠桿化」的問題,那麼中國貨幣供應量,將會十分充足。

If China followed by the policy of the United States, due to family and financial institutions in China, does not exist “deleveraging", so the Chinese money supply will be adequate.

因此,無論中國跟隨,還是背離美國的貨幣政策,都會出現流動性資金充裕的情形,當這種情況出現的話,將無可避免地,推動商品或資產價格泡沫的出現。

Therefore, regardless of China to follow, or to give up to follow U.S. monetary policy, ample liquidity situation, then when this happens, it will inevitably to promote the emergence of the commodity or asset price bubbles.

從中長期來看,由於中國人儲蓄額大於投資額,貿易順差又居高不下,這兩種因素,在較長時期內,都難以改變。

Medium and long term, due to the savings of the Chinese people is greater than the amount of investment, the trade surplus remains high, these two factors, a longer period of time, are difficult to change.

從短期來看,熱錢不斷流入中國;由於中國以外的其他國家,商品補充及庫存需求,不斷帶動中國商品,增加出口;全球的資金,流向中國,中國外匯儲備,加速上升,人民幣幣值,升值的壓力,大為增加。流動性過剩的資金,便會推高商品及物價水平。

The short term, hot money inflows into China; countries other than China, commodity supplemental and inventory requirements, continue to drive Chinese goods, and increasing exports; global capital flows to China, China’s foreign exchange reserves, accelerating the rise, the value of the RMB appreciation pressure is greatly increased. Liquidity surplus funds will be pushing up commodity and the price level.

由於人民幣匯率,重新跟隨美元的匯率機制,根據蒙代爾的「三元悖論」,當資金跨境流動時,在沒有辦法得到有效控制的情況下,中國中央銀行,便會,部分喪失貨幣政策的自主性。

The RMB exchange rate re-follows the dollar’s exchange rate mechanism, according to Mundell’s trilemma, when cross-border flows of funds in case there is no way to get effective control, the Chinese central bank will, in part the loss of monetary policy autonomy.

三元悖論(The Impossible Trinity),也稱三難選擇
根據蒙代爾的三元悖論,一個國家的經濟目標有三種:
① 國家貨幣政策的獨立性;
② 匯率的穩定性;
③ 資金的完全流動性。
這三者,一個國家,只能三選其二,而不可能三者兼得。
Trilemma (The Impossible Trinity), also known as the trilemma
According to Mundell Trilemma, a country’s economic objectives are three kinds
① The National monetary policy independence;
② Exchange rate stability;
③ Full capital mobility;
Only three selected second, but not three ways.

中國匯率調控的政策,只能追隨美國貨幣的匯率政策,同步調整。

Exchange control policy in China, only to follow the U.S. currency’s exchange rate policy, simultaneous adjustment.

當美國聯儲局發出信號非常明確,甚至是宣佈加息之後,中國中央銀行,才會提升存款及貸款基準利率。

When the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase the signal of interest, is very clear, even hiked interest rates, the Chinese central bank will increase deposit and benchmark lending rate.

不知從哪時候開始,投資,已經變成,風險與避險之間,二擇其一的遊戲。金融市場的投機者,會不約而同地,購買高風險(risk on)的金融產品,例如:股票、商品、高息債券、澳洲貨幣,紐西蘭貨幣等。令到上述投資項目,不斷上升;相反,當避險情緒高張的時候,金融市場的投機者,便又會轉移投資目標,一窩蜂地集體購買(risk off)美元、美國國債、日本貨幣等。

I do not know where to start, investment, has become a risk and hedging, select one of the game. Financial market speculators, coincidentally, the purchase of high-risk (risk on) the financial products, such as: stocks, commodities, high yield bonds, the currency of Australia, New Zealand currency.
So that the investment projects, rising; In contrast, when risk aversion, financial market speculators, in turn will transfer the investment objectives, collective to buy U.S. dollars (risk off), and U.S. Treasury bonds, the Japanese currency.

假設:您是一名投資者,您會怎樣面對?

Assumption: you are an investor you will be how to face?

美國經濟,開始重拾上升軌道?
The U.S. economy began to regain their upward trajectory?

第20章我們會討論上述話題。
In Chapter 20 we will discuss the above topics.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議
My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

參考文獻
1.林純潔.貨幣政策調控手段回歸"量化".第一財經日報
2.王靜娜.美聯儲量化寬鬆貨幣政策對中國經濟的影響.現代商業,2010年5期
3.耿群.日本結束量化寬鬆貨幣政策的影響分析.國際金融研究,2006年5期
4.孟繁興,宋維演.金融危機下的量化寬鬆貨幣政策之分析.山東商業職業技術學院學報.2009年3期
5. 維基百科

(chapter 19)Quantitative easing policy, the U.S. economy began to regain their upward trajectory?


(第19章)量化寬鬆貨幣政策能夠令美國經濟開始重拾上升軌道?

(一) 量化寬鬆:是一貨幣政策,由中央銀行,通過公開市場操作模式,提高貨幣供應量,可以視之為「無中生有」地,創造出指定金額的貨幣,也可以簡單化地形容是增加印刷鈔票數量。實際操作是,中央銀行通過公開市場操作,向金融市場購入債券、證券等票據,令到各間個別銀行,在中央銀行開設的結算戶口內,增加資金供應,間接為各間銀行體系,注入新的流動性資金。

(1) Quantitative easing: a monetary policy by the central bank increase the money supply through open market operation mode can be regarded as “nothing" to create a specified amount of currency can also be simplistically described the increase in printing money. The actual operation, the central bank through open market operations to financial market purchase of bonds, securities and other instruments, so that each individual bank in the clearing accounts of the central bank to increase the money supply, and indirectly for the banking system and inject new the flow of funds.

「量化寬鬆」中的「量化」是指:將會創造指定數量金額的貨幣。
「寬鬆」:是指減低銀行的資金壓力。

“Quantitative easing" in the “Quantitative" means: will create a specified number of the amount of currency. “Easing “: means to reduce the pressure on bank funding.

中央銀行利用憑空創造出來的金錢,在公開市場購買政府債券、借錢給接受存款機構、向銀行購買資產等。

The central bank created money to buy government bonds on the open market, lend money to the deposit-taking institutions, from banks to buy assets.

這些措施,都會引起政府債券收益率的下降,銀行同業隔夜利率的降低,各間銀行因此擁有大量只能賺取極低利息的資產。中央銀行期望,各間個別銀行,會因此較願意提供貸款給企業,以賺取回報,紓緩市場的資金壓力。

These measures will lead to the decline in government bond yields, reduced the overnight interbank interest rate, the bank therefore has a large number can only earn a very low interest assets. The central bank expects the individual banks will be more willing to offer loans to enterprises, in order to earn a return and relieve the financial pressure of the slow market.

當銀根已經鬆動,或購買的資產,將隨着通脹而貶值(如國庫債券)時,量化寬鬆會使貨幣傾向貶值。由於量化寬鬆有可能增加貨幣貶值的風險,政府通常會在經濟面對通縮時,推出量化寬鬆的措施。而持續的量化寬鬆,會增加通脹的風險。

Quantitative easing monetary policy has been loose, or purchase assets, as inflation and devaluation (such as Treasury bonds), a tendency to make the currency devaluation. Quantitative easing is likely to increase the risk of currency devaluation the government is usually in the economy facing deflation, the introduction of quantitative easing measures. Continued quantitative easing, will increase the risk of inflation.

(二) 政府推行量化寬鬆政策,可以刺激貸款數量:

(2) The Government’s quantitative easing policy can stimulate the number of loans:

當銀行保持一定比例的存款準備金之後,其餘的資金,便可以作為放貸之用。從量化寬鬆的過程中,銀行增加的存款,可以通過借貸,再創造出更多的貨幣供應,即所謂存款倍數效應(deposit multiplication)。

Banks to maintain a certain proportion of the reserve, the remaining funds can be used as lending to enterprises. From the process of quantitative easing, the Bank increased deposits by borrowing, to re-create more of the money supply, the so-called deposit multiplier effect (deposit multiplication).

例如,假設存款準備金的要求是10%,量化寬鬆每創造$10,000,可以產生的最終貨幣供應為$100,000。

For example, assume that the deposit reserve requirement is 10%, quantitative easing to create $ 10,000, the final money supply is $ 100,000.

量化寬鬆措施,向本地銀行同業市場,提供充足流動資金,最低限度能夠降低金融市場的借貸成本,政府最終期望,所有借款人都能得到好處,以支持整體經濟運作。一般來說,量化寬鬆可支持整體經濟;暢順運行,並有助紓緩或遏抑,經濟逆轉所帶來的影響。

Quantitative easing measures to provide adequate liquidity to local banks in the interbank market, at least to reduce the cost of borrowing in the financial market, the government eventually expect all borrowers can benefit from in order to support the overall operation of the economy. Quantitative easing measures to provide adequate liquidity to local banks in the interbank market, at least to reduce the cost of borrowing in the financial market, the government eventually expect all borrowers can benefit from in order to support the overall operation of the economy.
In general, the implementation of quantitative eases, so that the overall economy, smooth running, and help alleviate the economic downturn impact.

量化寬鬆措施,被形容為「開動印刷鈔票機器」,量化寬鬆措施,其實只是調整電腦上的帳目。

但是,一個國家要實行量化寬鬆,必須對其貨幣有控制權;所以,舉例來說,歐元區內,個別國家,卻不能單方面推出量化寬鬆措施。

Quantitative easing measures have been described as “start printing money machine" quantitative easing measures in fact just adjust the accounts on the computer.
However, for a country to implement quantitative easing, must be its currency control, for example, within the euro zone, the individual countries, but cannot unilaterally launch of quantitative easing measures.

(三) 實行量化寬鬆措施的例子:

(3) Examples of the implementation of quantitative easing measures:

當以減息來增加貨幣供應行不通的時候,中央銀行便可能推出量化寬鬆措施;通常在利率接近零的時候出現。其中,日本銀行於2000年代初期,實行量化寬鬆措施,以對付通縮。針對2007年開始的環球金融危機,美國聯邦儲備局的伯南克,以量化寬鬆手段應付。英國也同樣以量化寬鬆作為金融政策,以減低金融危機的影響。

To cut interest rates to increase the money supply does not work, the central bank may introduce quantitative easing measures; usually when interest rates near zero. Bank of Japan in the early 2000s, the implementation of quantitative easing measures to deal with deflation. The global financial crisis began in 2007, the U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke, the use of the quantitative easing policy to tackle the crisis. Britain also use quantitative easing policy as a financial policy to reduce the impact of financial crisis.

(四) 什麼是量化寬鬆的貨幣政策?

(4)What is quantitative easing of monetary policy?

量化寬鬆的貨幣政策又可以稱為「定量寬鬆」的貨幣政策。

The quantitative easing of monetary policy called “quantitative easing" monetary policy.

一般來說,中央銀行在設立貨幣政策的時候,會將利率目標放在一個特定的短期利率水平之上,中央銀行會通過,向銀行資金市場,注入或者是抽離資金,達到資金利率,處於中央銀行認為是利率目標的位置。

Generally speaking, the central bank in the establishment of monetary policy, the interest rate target on specific short-term interest rates above the level of the central bank by bank funds market, injected or pulled out of funds to achieve the funds rate, in the central bank rate target position.

此時,中央銀行希望調控的是:信貸的成本。

At this point, the central bank hopes that the regulation is: the cost of credit.

定量寬鬆貨幣是指:貨幣政策制定者,將政策關注點,從控制銀行系統的資金價格,轉向資金數量。貨幣政策的目標,就是為了保證貨幣政策,維持在寬鬆的環境下。

Quantitative easing means: monetary policy-makers, policy concerns, from the price of money to control the banking system, steering the amount of money. Monetary policy objective is to ensure that monetary policy remained in a relaxed environment.

對於這個政策而言,「量」是意味著貨幣供應,而「寬鬆」則表示貨幣數量會有很多,當然,定量寬鬆的貨幣政策,也有特定的指標。

For the purposes of this policy, the “quantity" means that the money supply, and “loose" said the quantity of money there will be many, of course, the quantitative easing of monetary policy, there are specific indicators.

採用「定量寬鬆」的貨幣政策,往往意味著,政府將會放棄傳統的貨幣政策,因為對於中央銀行而言,他們不可能,既可以控制資金的價格,又可以控制資金的數量。

“Quantitative easing" monetary policy, often means that the government will abandon the traditional monetary policy, for the central bank, they cannot either control the price of funds, can control the amount of funds.

(五) 政府為甚麼要採取「開動印鈔機」的辦法應付金融風暴?

(5)Why is the Government to take “printing money" to cope with financial turmoil?

因為國家處理貨幣當局,通過大量印刷鈔票,在金融市場上,購買國債或企業債券等方式,向金融市場,注入大量資金,目的是降低市場利率,刺激經濟增長。

Countries to deal with the monetary authorities, by printing money to buy government bonds or corporate bonds in the financial markets, a large injection of funds to financial markets, the aim is to reduce market interest rates to stimulate economic growth.

實施量化寬鬆政策,通常是指:當中央銀行採用,常規的貨幣政策,對刺激經濟無效的情況下,才被管理貨幣當局採用,因為這是「非常規」的貨幣管理政策。

The implementation of the quantitative easing policy, usually means: central banks, conventional monetary policy to stimulate the economy invalid, was the management of the monetary authorities adopted because it is “unconventional" monetary policies.

(六) 日本的量化寬鬆的貨幣政策 :

(6)quantitative easing monetary policy in Japan:

最先採用量化寬鬆貨幣政策的國家是日本。

The countries of the world’s first quantitative easing monetary policy to cope with deflation are the Japanese government.

2001年,日本中央銀行,作出了一個驚人的舉措,他們採用了一個新型的貨幣政策工具。當時,日本政府,在零利率基礎上,實行進一步的擴張性貨幣政策,大量增加貨幣的供應,用來應對經濟層面上出現的通貨緊縮。在此之前,世界上,並沒有任何一個國家,曾經使用過這一種增加貨幣供應的政策。

In 2001, Japan’s central bank, made an amazing move, they have adopted a new monetary policy tools. At that time, the Japanese government on the basis of the zero interest rate, to implement further expansionary monetary policy, a substantial increase in the money supply, used to deal with the economic level, the emergence of deflation. Prior to this, the world, there is no any country, ever used this kind of policy to increase the money supply.

日本所採用的辦法是:將大量超額資金,注入銀行體系中,使長期及短期利率,都處於較低水平,目的是刺激經濟增長,對抗通貨緊縮。

Japan is this: a lot of excess funds injected into the banking system, so that long-term and short-term interest rates are at a low level, the purpose is to stimulate economic growth and fight deflation.

(七)量化寬鬆政策,在刺激經濟走出通貨收縮方面的作用,可以從兩個方面來體現:

(7)Quantitative easing policy, the role of stimulating the economy out of deflation, from two to reflect:

第一方面是:低利率的環境,有利於企業,將成本維持在較低水平,也有利於促進消費,從而對經濟增長,起到積極的推動作用;

The first aspect is: the low interest rate environment, conducive to business, keeping costs at a low level, but also conducive to promoting consumption, which play a positive role in promoting economic growth;

另一方面,充足的資金,還可以使背負著大量不良貸款的日本銀行業,無需擔憂流動性資金的不足,並且,可以在化解不良貸款問題上,採取較為主動的行動,推動金融業,甚至,在其他虧損產業中,能夠進行結構性重新組合。

On the other hand, adequate funding, can also be saddled with a large number of non-performing loans of Japanese banks, do not worry about the lack of liquidity, and to resolve non-performing loans, to take more proactive action to promote financial sector, even other loss industry, structural regroup.

日本是世界上,首先採取貨幣寬鬆政策,應付金融危機的國家,由日本的實踐經驗,可以得到證明:金融危機,會極大地打擊金融業和金融市場的信心。金融市場的「去杠桿化」,經歷的過程會很漫長,因此,在特定的時期內,金融市場的所有資金交易,都會很困難地正常運作;

Japan is the world’s first monetary easing, to cope with the financial crisis in the country, and by practical experience in Japan, can be proved: the financial crisis will be greatly undermined the confidence of the financial sector and financial markets. Financial markets, “deleveraging" going through the process will be very long, in a specific period of time, all financial transactions of the financial markets will be very difficult to operate normally;

另外,由於經濟的全球化和貨幣市場的自由化,一個國家,無限制地增加流動性資金供應,未必能夠刺激本地銀行業對本國的企業資金放貸。也就是說,當資金的回報率,境外與境內有差異的時候,資金會毫不遲疑地選擇逃出境外。

In addition, due to the globalization of the economy and the currency market liberalization, a country, the unlimited increase in the supply of liquidity may not be able to stimulate the local banking sector to the national enterprise funds to lend. That is, when the rate of return of capital, foreign and domestic differences, the funds would not hesitate to choose to escape outside.

(七) 量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對全球經濟的影響:

(8) Quantitative easing monetary policy, the impact of the global economy:

量化寬鬆貨幣政策是一把雙刃劍。因為,實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,政府會向金融市場,注入大量現金,這些舉措,有助於緩解金融市場,資金緊張的狀況,有助於經濟恢復增長。

Quantitative easing monetary policy is a double-edged sword. Because the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy, the Government will inject large amounts of cash to the financial markets, these initiatives will help alleviate the financial markets, shortages of funds to help the economy return to growth.

但是,從長遠角度來看,會埋下通貨膨脹的隱患,在經濟增長停滯的情況下,或許,會引起滯漲。

However, from the long-term point of view, will become a hidden danger of inflation, in the case of stagnant economic growth, perhaps, it will cause stagflation.

另外,量化寬鬆貨幣政策,還會導致本國貨幣大幅貶值,在刺激本國出口的同時,惡化相關貿易體的經濟形式,導致本國與其他國家之間的貿易摩擦等等。

In addition, the quantitative easing of monetary policy, but also led to sharp depreciation of domestic currency to stimulate the country’s exports at the same time, deterioration of the economic form of the relevant trade body, leading to trade friction between the country and other countries.

對於全球經濟霸主的美國而言,實施這種激進的量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對美國和全球經濟的影響,更是不容小覷。

For global economic hegemony of the United States, the implementation of this radical quantitative easing monetary policy, the U.S. and global economy, should not be underestimated.

(九)量化寬鬆貨幣政策,埋下全球通貨膨脹的隱患 :

(9) Quantitative easing monetary policy, planted the hidden dangers of global inflation:

量化寬鬆貨幣政策,實質上,是在脫離實體經濟需求的情況下,開動印鈔票機器,向金融市場,輸入流動性資金。

Quantitative easing monetary policy, in essence, in the case of out of the real economy needs to start printing money machine, enter the liquidity to financial markets.

在市場信心缺失,投資萎縮的情況下,量化寬鬆貨幣政策向市場釋放的流動性資金,不會即時導致通貨膨脹,但是,一旦經濟轉趨好轉,投資信心恢復,過度釋放的流動性資金,便可能會轉化為通貨膨脹。

Lack of market confidence and investment shrinking, quantitative easing monetary policy for the release of liquidity to the market, does not immediately lead to inflation, but once the economy turned better, to restore investors’ confidence, excessive release of liquidity, they may translate into inflation.

尤其是對於美國而言,由於美元是世界儲備貨幣,而且世界主要商品定價,都是以美元為基準。美國聯儲局,實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,將會導致美元大幅貶值,從而引發,新的一輪資源、商品的價格上漲,埋下全球通脹的隱患。

Especially for the United States dollar is the world’s reserve currency, but also the world’s major commodity pricing, are in U.S. dollars as the base. U.S. Federal Reserve, the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy will lead to the sharp depreciation of the dollar, giving rise of a resource, commodity prices, planted the hidden dangers of global inflation.

另外,美國聯儲局的巨額購買債券計劃,推倒了多米諾骨牌。

In addition, the huge U.S. Fed to buy bonds pulled down the dominoes.

其他國家的經濟體系,為了阻止本國貨幣,相對於美元而升值,衝擊本國的出口行業,進一步惡化本國經濟,因此,這些國家便會仿效實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,進一步加劇了,各個國家,未來的通脹壓力。

Economies of other countries, in order to prevent their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar and the appreciation of the impact on the local export industries, further deterioration of the national economy, therefore, these countries will follow the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy, further exacerbating the various countries, the future inflationary pressures.

這也是為什麼短期內,量化寬鬆貨幣政策,會風靡全球主要經濟體的原因。如果量化寬鬆貨幣政策,未能使美國經濟走上復蘇之路,經濟不景氣,將會導致滯漲局面出現。

This is why the short term, quantitative easing monetary policy will be popular in the reasons of the world’s major economies. Quantitative easing monetary policy, cannot make the U.S. economy to the path of recovery, the economic downturn will lead to the emergence of stagflation situation.

(十)量化寬鬆貨幣政策,會惡化相關貿易體的經濟形勢 :

(10) Quantitative easing monetary policy will worsen the economic situation of the relevant trade:

量化寬鬆貨幣政策的最直接的表現之一,便是使本國貨幣大幅貶值,雖然有利於本國的出口行業,但是,也會導致相關經濟體系國家的貨幣升值。

Quantitative easing monetary policy, the most direct expression of one is to make the substantial devaluation of the national currency, although there are beneficial to the country’s export industry, but also lead to the countries of the economic system, currency appreciation.

例如:美國聯儲局宣佈巨額注資計劃當日,世界主要貨幣,相對於美元而言,都大幅升值,其中:歐元升值3.5%,日元升值2.4%,英鎊升值1.6%,加元升值1.7%。

For example: the U.S. Federal Reserve announced the date of the capital infusion program, the world’s major currencies, as opposed to the U.S. dollar, are the sharp appreciation, of which: euro appreciation of 3.5%, 2.4% appreciation of the yen, the pound appreciated by 1.6 percent, Canada currency appreciated by 1.7 percent.

這樣一來便會削弱,相關貿易體系,對美國的出口能力,尤其對於那些處於金融危機漩渦中,出口導向型的新興經濟體系而言。

As a result, will be weakened, and the relevant trading system, the ability to export to the United States, especially for those in financial crisis, export-oriented countries of emerging economies.

英、美、日等全球主要經濟體系,大量的量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對本國經濟造成雪上加霜的打擊,並有可能引發有關聯的國家,彼此的貿易摩擦。

Britain, the United States, Japan and other major global economies, a large number of quantitative easing monetary policy, a worse blow to the national economy and may lead to the associated countries, each other’s trade friction.

(十一)美國聯儲局,大量購買國債,會降低相應持有美國國債國家的外匯資產價值 :

(11) The U.S. Federal Reserve, a large purchase of government bonds will be reduced, corresponding to the country’s foreign exchange value of the assets in U.S. Treasury bonds held:

雖然,本次金融危機,起源於美國。但是,由於美國強大的經濟實力和美元獨一無二的國際地位,美債一度因避險功能,而大受避險的投機者歡迎。

The financial crisis originated in the United States.
However, due to the powerful economic strength and unique international status, the U.S. debt was due to hedging, thus greatly speculators welcome.

包括中國在內的很多國家政府,在本國的外匯資產中,美國國債,都佔有重要地位。

Many governments, including China, the country’s foreign exchange assets in U.S. Treasury bonds, occupy an important position.

美國聯儲局大舉購買美國國債,將推升美國國債價格,但是,降低了國債收益率,從而使持有美國國債國家的外匯資產,存在非常巨大的貶值風險。

The U.S. Federal Reserve aggressively buy U.S. treasury bonds, pushing up U.S. Treasury prices, however, lower yields, so that the holders of the country’s foreign exchange assets of U.S. Treasury bonds, there is a very large devaluation risk.

美國實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,那一天:3月18日當日,美國基準l0年期政府債券收益率從3.01%降至2.5%,開創1981年以來最大單日跌幅。

The United States to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, and that day: on March 18, the U.S. benchmark l0-year government bond yields fell from 3.01% to 2.5%, creating the largest single-day decline since 1981.

對於美國而言,美元貶值和國債收益率降低,都將會導致巨額外匯資金,從美國流出,對於當前仍處於金融危機中的美國經濟而言,也是不得不面對的殘酷現實。

For the United States, the depreciation of the dollar and bond yields lower, will lead to huge amounts of foreign exchange funds, outflows from the United States, the U.S. economy is still in financial crisis, also had to face the harsh reality.

量化寬鬆貨幣政策,是一種非常激進的政策,雖有利於幫助深陷金融危機中的發達經濟體系,緩解信貸緊張的狀況,增加經濟擴張的動力。

The quantitative easing policy is a very radical policy, although beneficial to the help of deep financial crisis in developed economies to ease the tight credit situation, increasing the momentum of economic expansion.

但是,從對全球經濟的大局來看,世界主要經濟體系,尤其是美國實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,是一種「損人不利己」的行為,它埋下了全球通脹的種子,並有可能導致出口外向型,新型經濟體系,各個國家的經濟,進一步減少外匯儲備資產,令本國貨幣面對,大幅貶值等問題的產生。

However, look at the overall situation on the global economy, the world’s major economies, especially the United States to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, is " a dog in the manger" behavior, it planted the seeds of global inflation, and may lead to export-oriented, new economies, each country’s economy, further reducing the foreign currency reserve assets. These countries have to face the national currency, the sharp depreciation of generation.

(十二)美國聯儲局,量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對中國經濟的影響:

(12) U.S. Fed, quantitative easing monetary policy, the impact of China’s economy:

在未來一段時間里,隨著國際金融機構「去杠桿化」進程的逐漸結束,美國聯儲局,向金融市場注入的大量流動資金,會通過各種渠道,流向包括中國在內的新興市場國家。

In the next period of time, with the international financial institutions “to the gradual end of the deleveraging process”, the U.S. Federal Reserve injected liquidity to financial markets, through various channels, flows to emerging market countries, including China.

同時,美國聯邦基金利率,已經降至接近零利率的水平,日前中國的一年期存款利率,經過四次降息到2.25%,還是遠高於美國聯邦基準利率水平,短期內,美國聯儲局加息的可能性不會很大,中國與美國的利息差距局面,將會繼續維持。

Meanwhile, the U.S. federal funds rate has fallen to a level close to zero interest rates, a few days ago China’s one-year deposit interest rate, after four interest rate cut to 2.25%, still much higher than the U.S. federal benchmark interest rates in the short term, the United States Federal Reserve Board, to increase the possibility of interest, will not be great, the interest gap between the situation in China and the United States will continue to maintain.

在這種情形下,短期內,國際資金,流入中國的趨勢,還會持續。

In this case, short-term international capital flows into China trend will continue.

然而,一旦美國經濟進入持續復蘇,美國聯儲局,必定會逐步退出量化寬鬆政策,並且會逐漸收緊銀根。美國拆借市場利率和聯邦基金利率,將會上升。

However, once the U.S. economy into a sustained recovery, the U.S. Federal Reserve must gradually withdraw from the quantitative easing policy, and will gradually tighten the money supply. Interbank market interest rates and the federal funds rate will rise.

這些舉措,會使美元升值,並會促使部分套利交易者,平倉離開市場。

These initiatives will make the dollar, and will lead to some arbitrage traders leave the market.

一旦美元企穩走強,國債利率隨即上升,商品價格會大幅回落,資產泡沫可能隨之而爆破。

Once the U.S. dollar stabilized strong, then rise in Treasury rates, commodity prices will fall sharply, asset bubbles may be followed by blasting.

大量投機性資金隨後便會撤出中國,造成資產、商品價格的大幅波動,給中國的金融穩定,埋下巨大的隱患。

A large number of speculative capitals will be followed by withdrawal, resulting in assets, the sharp fluctuations in commodity prices, China’s financial stability, and laid a huge risk.

20世紀90年代,東南亞國家的資產泡沫破裂,因而引發了金融危機。這一些深刻教訓,投資者必須引以為鑒。

In the 1990s, the Southeast Asian country’s asset bubble burst, thereby triggering the financial crisis. This is a profound lesson, investors must learn a lesson.

量化寬鬆貨幣政策,加大了美元匯率的波動,增加了人民幣匯率機制改革的難度。2005年7月21日,自從匯率形成機制改革以來,人民幣匯率水平,似乎也發生了明顯的變化。

Quantitative easing monetary policy, increase the volatility of the dollar, an increase of RMB exchange rate mechanism, the difficulty of reform. July 21, 2005, since the exchange rate formation mechanism reform, the RMB exchange rate, seems to have occurred a significant change.

然而,從2008年7月到2009年3月,金融危機急劇惡化,國際金融市場的投資者,避險情緒升溫,國際金融機構和企業紛紛將資金撤回美國或兌換成美元資產,導致美元兌換主要貨幣匯率,保持升值趨勢。

However, from July 2008 to March 2009, the financial crisis, a sharp deterioration in international financial markets, investors, risk aversion, international financial institutions and enterprises have the funds to withdraw the United States or converted into U.S. dollars of assets, leading to the dollar mainly currency exchange rates, to keep the appreciation trend.

在這些背景下,人民幣事實又重歸,緊跟着美元的匯率制度,人民幣兌美元的波動幅度,維持在6.82~6.84之間波動。

In these circumstances, the RMB exchange rate, again followed by the dollar’s exchange rate regime, the fluctuations of the RMB against the U.S. dollar to maintain fluctuated in the range of 6.82 to 6.84.

2009年3月下旬,美國量化寬鬆貨幣政策推出,導致美國通貨膨脹預期上升、國債融資風險增加,美元融資利差交易活躍,加上全球經濟回復上升,令到美元作為避險工具的需求,逐漸減弱,原本以美元資產保值的資金,重新追逐其他有高收益回報的資產,美元又再度,呈現貶值趨勢。

In late March 2009, the U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy was launched in the U.S. inflation is expected to rise, increased risk of debt financing, leading to the financing of the dollar carry trade is active, together with the global economy returns to rise, so that the U.S. dollar as hedging instruments demand waning, originally preservation funds dollar-denominated assets, re-chase the other high-yield return on assets, the dollar again, showing a depreciation trend.

隨著美元匯價弱勢,人民幣匯率,自從2009年3月份後,連續7個月,呈現貶值態勢,名義有效匯率和實際有效匯率,分別貶值9.17%和7.67%。

With the weak U.S. dollar, the RMB exchange rate since March 2009 after seven consecutive months, showed a depreciation trend of the nominal effective exchange rate and real effective exchange rate, depreciation of 9.17% and 7.67% respectively.

在美元貶值和短期國際資本湧入的背景下,人民幣升值壓力,再次顯現,中國政府,不太可能選擇大幅升值的策略。

The context of the depreciation of the dollar, and the influx of short-term international capital, RMB appreciation pressure, appeared again, the Chinese government, and less likely to choose the sharp appreciation of the strategy.

首先,在大幅升值方式下,熱錢會在很短暫的時間內,就可以獲得升值帶來的收益,熱錢獲利的成本將大大降低。

First, the sharp appreciation of the way, the hot money in a very short period of time will be able to get the appreciation of the benefits the cost of the hot money profits will be greatly reduced.

其次,中國也很難找到一個,均衡匯率點,因為,中國無法計算出,怎樣的升值幅度,才是一個合適的水平。

Secondly, it is difficult to find a point of equilibrium exchange rate, because China cannot be calculated, how the rate of appreciation is an appropriate level.

如果中國採取大幅升值策略,人民幣匯率,很可能出現超越調節現象,資金流向逆轉的風險增大。

Assume that China has adopted the strategy of the sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is likely to occur beyond the adjustments, the reversal of capital flows, is very risky.

假設,一次性大幅升值以後,如果沒有升到適當的位置,金融市場,有可能,還會有下一次的升值預期,這樣便會造成過多資金的不斷流入。

Assumptions one-off revaluation, if not rise to the appropriate location, financial markets, it is possible, there will be the next expected appreciation, and this will cause too much funds inflow.

無論出現上述哪一種情形,都會造成資金,大量進入中國或急速撤離中國的現象,因而產生巨大的金融風險。

No matter what kind of circumstances, will result in capital poured into China or rapidly withdrawing from the Chinese, the phenomenon that results in enormous financial risk.

再者,匯率大幅升值,對中國出口型的企業,將帶來較大衝擊,經濟可能出現大幅下滑,進而引發嚴重的失業問題。

Furthermore, the sharp exchange rate appreciation, will be a big impact on China’s export-oriented enterprises, the economy may have fallen sharply, triggering a serious unemployment problem.

美國推出史無前例的量化寬鬆政策,對中國貨幣政策最直接的影響是:中國只能被動跟隨美國進行調整。

The United States launched an unprecedented quantitative easing policy, the most direct impact of monetary policy to China: China can only be adjusted passively follow the United States.

假設,中國不跟隨美國和全球的量化寬鬆政策,人民幣將可能產生更大的升值壓力,帶來更多的資金流入。

Assumptions, China does not follow the U.S. and global quantitative easing policy, the RMB will likely have a greater appreciation of the pressure to bring more capital inflows.

如果,中國緊跟美國的政策,由於中國的家庭和金融機構,並不存在「去杠桿化」的問題,那麼中國貨幣供應量,將會十分充足。

If China followed by the policy of the United States, due to family and financial institutions in China, does not exist “deleveraging", so the Chinese money supply will be adequate.

因此,無論中國跟隨,還是背離美國的貨幣政策,都會出現流動性資金充裕的情形,當這種情況出現的話,將無可避免地,推動商品或資產價格泡沫的出現。

Therefore, regardless of China to follow, or to give up to follow U.S. monetary policy, ample liquidity situation, then when this happens, it will inevitably to promote the emergence of the commodity or asset price bubbles.

從中長期來看,由於中國人儲蓄額大於投資額,貿易順差又居高不下,這兩種因素,在較長時期內,都難以改變。

Medium and long term, due to the savings of the Chinese people is greater than the amount of investment, the trade surplus remains high, these two factors, a longer period of time, are difficult to change.

從短期來看,熱錢不斷流入中國;由於中國以外的其他國家,商品補充及庫存需求,不斷帶動中國商品,增加出口;全球的資金,流向中國,中國外匯儲備,加速上升,人民幣幣值,升值的壓力,大為增加。流動性過剩的資金,便會推高商品及物價水平。

The short term, hot money inflows into China; countries other than China, commodity supplemental and inventory requirements, continue to drive Chinese goods, and increasing exports; global capital flows to China, China’s foreign exchange reserves, accelerating the rise, the value of the RMB appreciation pressure is greatly increased. Liquidity surplus funds will be pushing up commodity and the price level.

由於人民幣匯率,重新跟隨美元的匯率機制,根據蒙代爾的「三元悖論」,當資金跨境流動時,在沒有辦法得到有效控制的情況下,中國中央銀行,便會,部分喪失貨幣政策的自主性。

The RMB exchange rate re-follows the dollar’s exchange rate mechanism, according to Mundell’s trilemma, when cross-border flows of funds in case there is no way to get effective control, the Chinese central bank will, in part the loss of monetary policy autonomy.

三元悖論(The Impossible Trinity),也稱三難選擇
根據蒙代爾的三元悖論,一個國家的經濟目標有三種:
① 國家貨幣政策的獨立性;
② 匯率的穩定性;
③ 資金的完全流動性。
這三者,一個國家,只能三選其二,而不可能三者兼得。
Trilemma (The Impossible Trinity), also known as the trilemma
According to Mundell Trilemma, a country’s economic objectives are three kinds
① The National monetary policy independence;
② Exchange rate stability;
③ Full capital mobility;
Only three selected second, but not three ways.

中國匯率調控的政策,只能追隨美國貨幣的匯率政策,同步調整。

Exchange control policy in China, only to follow the U.S. currency’s exchange rate policy, simultaneous adjustment.

當美國聯儲局發出信號非常明確,甚至是宣佈加息之後,中國中央銀行,才會提升存款及貸款基準利率。

When the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase the signal of interest, is very clear, even hiked interest rates, the Chinese central bank will increase deposit and benchmark lending rate.

不知從哪時候開始,投資,已經變成,風險與避險之間,二擇其一的遊戲。金融市場的投機者,會不約而同地,購買高風險(risk on)的金融產品,例如:股票、商品、高息債券、澳洲貨幣,紐西蘭貨幣等。令到上述投資項目,不斷上升;相反,當避險情緒高張的時候,金融市場的投機者,便又會轉移投資目標,一窩蜂地集體購買(risk off)美元、美國國債、日本貨幣等。

I do not know where to start, investment, has become a risk and hedging, select one of the game. Financial market speculators, coincidentally, the purchase of high-risk (risk on) the financial products, such as: stocks, commodities, high yield bonds, the currency of Australia, New Zealand currency.
So that the investment projects, rising; In contrast, when risk aversion, financial market speculators, in turn will transfer the investment objectives, collective to buy U.S. dollars (risk off), and U.S. Treasury bonds, the Japanese currency.

假設:您是一名投資者,您會怎樣面對?

Assumption: you are an investor you will be how to face?

美國經濟,開始重拾上升軌道?
The U.S. economy began to regain their upward trajectory?

第20章我們會討論上述話題。
In Chapter 20 we will discuss the above topics.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議
My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

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5. 維基百科