(Chapter 24)Hedge funds, in the end investors or speculators?


(第24章)對沖基金公司,到底是投資者抑或是投機者?
(Chapter 24)Hedge funds, in the end investors or speculators?

各位讀者在閱讀本期文章時,不妨想一想,下列兩條問題:
Dear readers, when you read this issue, we might think about the following two questions:
(1) 對沖基金公司的運作,是金融市場:屢次發生動蕩不安局面的幕後黑手嗎?

(a) The mode of operation of the hedge fund company is behind the manipulation of financial markets: The repeated occurrence of the turbulent situation

(2) 對沖基金公司,為甚麼不會受到各個國家的金融當局的監管?

(b) Hedge funds, why not subject to the supervision of the financial authorities in each country?

一、對沖基金是指由金融期貨、金融期權等金融衍生工具與金融組織結合後,利用高風險投機為手段,而以盈利為目的金融基金。
A. Hedge funds, the following three investment projects: financial futures, financial options, financial derivatives, the combination of financial institutions, and then use the high-risk Speculative means to seek profit for the purpose of financial organizations.

二、對沖基金的基本內涵:

B. The basic meaning of hedge funds:

人們把金融期貨和金融期權稱為金融衍生工具,它們通常被利用在金融市場中,作為套期保值、規避風
險的手段。

Financial futures and financial options, known as financial derivatives, these so-called investment vehicles, usually investors or speculators using in the financial markets as hedging, risk aversion means.

隨著時間的推移,在金融市場上,部分基金組織,利用金融衍生工具,採取多種以盈利為目的投資策略,這些基金組織便被稱為避險基金。
With the progress of time, in the financial markets, part of the fund organization, the use of financial derivatives,

目前,這些所謂避險基金,已經失去對沖風險的內涵;
正好相反,現在人們普遍認為:避險基金,實際是基於採用最新的投資理論,加入基金經理,對政治或經濟趨勢的估量,再摻雜極端複雜的金融市場操作技巧,充分利用各種金融衍生產品的槓桿效用,進行高風險、追求高收益的,投資模式。
Currently, these so-called hedge funds, has lost the connotation of the hedged risk;
On the contrary, now generally accepted that: hedge funds, is actually based on the latest investment theory, to join the fund manager, the measure of political or economic trends,
Fund managers doped with extremely complex financial market operations, to take full advantage of a variety of financial derivatives, the financial leverage for high-risk, and the pursuit of a high-yield investment patterns.
三、對沖基金的起源與發展趨勢:
C. Origin and development trend of hedge funds:

對沖基金的這種投資操作,起源於1950年代初的美國。操作的宗旨,在於利用期貨、期權等金融衍生工具彼此之間的漏洞,進行圖利的操作。基金經理,在投資市場,甄別一些,彼此之間有關聯的,但是不同類別的股票,進行買空、賣空、的投資操作。

This investment operations, originated in the early 1950s, the United States. The purpose of the operation is to use futures, options and other financial derivatives between the loopholes in the operating profit. Fund managers in the investment market, screening, related to each other, but different classes of stock, bought the empty, short selling, and investment operations.
買空:說的是一名投資人,當預計股票價格將會上升時,預先向股票交易機構,使用支付信用保證金的方式,獲得買入股票的權利,然後,在交易雙方議定的一段時限內,借貸股票的一方,在股票市場內,等待股票價格上升到滿意的價位時,斷然賣出股票,從交易過程中,獲取首先買入、然後賣出的差價,達到賺取盈利目標的一種投資方式。
to buy long:Investors, when the expected stock price will rise, advance to the stock exchange institutions, pay credit margin, the right to buy shares, then, within a certain period agreed by the parties to the transaction, the lending stock in stock market, waiting for the stock price rose to a satisfactory price, sell the stock, the transaction process, access to buy and then sell the difference, an investment to make a profit target.
賣空:說的是一名投資人,當預計股票價格將會下跌,預先向股票交易機構,使用存入抵押金的形式,首先借入股票,在交易雙方議定的一段時限內,觀望股票價格的市場變動,當股票價格真正下跌的時機出現,等待股票價格,下跌到比較借入價格更低時,然後,再買入相同數量的股票,把買入的股票,歸還給借出股票者,從中獲取差價的收益。
to sell short:Investors, when the expected stock price will fall to the stock exchange agencies in advance, use the deposit in the form of mortgage payments, first borrowed shares within a certain period agreed by the parties to the transaction, watching the market movements of stock prices, stock prices really dropped the timing of the emergence of waiting for the stock price fell to a relatively lower purchase price, then buy another the same number of stocks, buy stocks, returned to stock lending, and derive the difference of income.

換言之,是容許投資者,在沒有充足資金的情況下,或者,根本沒有擁有股票的情況下,投資者只是按照證券交易所的規定,存入指定數目的信用保證金或者根據股票交易所規定,存入指定數目的抵押按金;這是一種讓投資者,廣泛採納的投資方式。

In other words, is to allow the investor does not have sufficient funds, or did not have stock, investors only in accordance with the provisions of the Stock Exchange, deposited into a specified number of credit bond or stock exchange regulations, deposit into a specified number of security deposits; this is a way for investors, widespread adoption of the investment.

雖然,這是一種投機方式,但是,這是一種既有利於提高股市的交投量,同時,也會令到投資者,可以獲取收益;不過,投資人將要面臨很大的潛在風險。

Although this is a speculative way, but this is a help to improve the trading volume of the stock market, it would also make investors can earn money; however, investors will face a lot of potential risks.

這種買入和賣出股票的操作技巧,目的是可以讓投資者的盈利與虧損的風險,互相對沖。這種金融操作技巧,在一定程度上,的確可以規避及化解,單一投機者,面臨金錢投資的風險。

Operating skills, buying and selling stocks allows the investor’s profit and loss risk, mutual hedge. This financial operations skills, to a certain extent, indeed can be circumvented and to resolve a single speculator, facing the risk of the investment of money.

四、金融市場現時的避險基金,最常使用的投資策略,有多達20多種類。
其操作的手法,主要可以分為以下五個類別:
D. Financial markets, hedge funds, the most commonly used investment strategy, as many as over 20 species.
The way of its operation, can be divided into the following five categories:
1.同時買入及沽空股票,可以是單邊長期持有股票倉或者長期沽出股票;
1 by simultaneously buying and short selling the stock, which can be unilateral long-term holders of stock positions or long-term sell stock;
2.同時持續買入股價趨勢下跌的股票以及沽出股價趨勢升高的股票;
2 While continuing to buy the shares of the stock trend is down and sell the stock increased by the share price trend;

3.可換股套戥,即買入價格偏低的可換股債券,同時沽空股票的正股,反之亦然;
3 convertible arbitrage, i.e. the low purchase price of the convertible bonds, the underlying shares to short sell the stock at the same time, and vice versa;

4.從環球經濟的宏觀角度,分析各地經濟金融體系、按照政治、經濟事件的現實發展,設定主要的趨勢性買、賣策略;
4From the perspective of the global economy, the analysis of local economic and financial system, in accordance with the reality of the political, economic events, set a major trend trading strategies;

5.管理期貨的買進以及賣出,亦即是:持有各種不同類別的衍生工具產品。
5 managed futures bought and sold, that is: holding various categories of derivative products.

投資者圍繞討論「對沖基金」的二個核心問題是:
Investors around the discussion of “hedge fund" the two core issues are:
1 對沖基金究竟是屬於甚麼類別的公司?
1 Hedge funds actually are what types of companies?
2 對沖基金公司的運作,會不會導致高風險的投資?
2 The operation of hedge funds, will result in high-risk investment?
五、各國政府,要不要向對沖基金公司加強監管,以及應該採取何種手段,加強監管?
E. Governments, or to the hedge fund companies to strengthen supervision, and what means should be taken to strengthen supervision?
筆者的論述,可以分為三部分:
I discussed can be divided into three parts:

第一是:介紹對沖基金公司運作的概況,揭開對沖基金公司神秘的面紗;
The first is: to introduce an overview of the operation of the hedge fund company opened a hedge fund company veil of mystery;
第二是:嘗試分析,對沖基金公司,是否一定導致金融風險;對沖基金公司,有沒有導致了1997年的亞洲金融危機;
The second is: Try to analyze hedge fund Company, necessarily lead to financial risks; hedge Fund Company, whether it led to the 1997 Asian financial crisis?

第三是:提出討論,各國的政府金融監管機構,應否要向對沖基金公司的運作,加強監管的力度。
The third is: discussed, the national government financial regulatory bodies, should to the hedge fund the company’s operations, strengthen the supervision efforts.
六、對沖基金公司的概況
F. Overview of a hedge fund company
1、對沖基金公司的定義和特點:
1, the definition and characteristics of hedge funds:
90年代中期,雖然對沖基金的一些相關術語,早已進入金融市場,但是,對沖基金公司,卻真的是聞所未聞。那些時候,有這樣一些金融術語出現了。
Mid-1990s, although some of the terminology of hedge funds, already into the financial markets, hedge funds, but is really unheard of. Those times when such financial terms.
例如:「對沖」、「基金」、「套利」、「共同基金」等條目,卻還是沒有「對沖基金公司」的條目說明。
Such as: “hedge" , " fund " ," uncovered arbitrage “, " mutual funds “and other terms, but no the term of the hedge fund company.
2、其實,要說清楚「對沖基金公司」究竟是甚麼性質的公司,並非是一件容易的事情。
2,In fact, to say clearly hedge funds what is the nature of the company is not an easy thing.
「對沖基金」有許多別緻的名稱,例如:「套頭基金」、「拋補套利基金」以及「避險基金」。
“Hedge funds" have many unique names, for example: “hedge funds", “uncovered arbitrage funds" and “risk-averse fund. "

事實上,自從1990年代以來,全世界的金融市場,對於「對沖基金」的理解,也頗為混淆與及沒有一致性的結論。
In fact, since the 1990s, the world’s financial markets, understanding of the “hedge fund" is quite confusing and there is no consistent conclusion.
七、筆者嘗試列舉一些,最具權威的金融機構或個別人仕,對於「對沖基金」所訂立的定義如下:
G. I try to enumerate some of the most authoritative financial institution or an individual person, made for “hedge fund" is defined as follows:

第一:國際貨幣基金組織的定義是:「對沖基金,是屬於私人的投資組合,經常都是離岸設立,以充分迴避,要向設立公司的所屬國家,應該繳納的稅款以及被所屬國家的金融機構,進行管制」。
First: the IMF is defined as: “Hedge funds are private investment portfolio, often offshore are set up to evade the full, to the establishment of the company’s home country, should pay the tax, as well as the country financial institutions, regulatory restrictions. "

第二:美國第一家提供對沖基金商業資料的機構(Mar/Hedge)的定義是:「對沖基金公司是一間,採取獎勵性佣金制度的公司,基金公司通常抽取總投資額的15—25%的金錢,作為行政費用;並且,最低限度要滿足,下列各個標準中的其中一個」:
The second: the first U.S. hedge funds, commercial information agencies (Mar / Hedge,) is defined as: “The fund company is a take incentive commission system companies, fund companies typically taking 15-25% of the total amount of investment money, as administrative costs; and the minimum to meet one of the following criteria:

第1:基金投資於多種不同類別的資產;
第2:投資的項目,一定利用杠杆效應;
第3:基金會在投資組合內,運用各種套利策略。
1: The Fund invests in a variety of different classes of assets;
2: the investment project, be sure to use the leverage effect;
3: The Foundation investment portfolio, using a variety of arbitrage strategies. "

第三:美國另一家對沖基金研究機構HFR,將對沖基金概括為:
Third: HFR of the United States, another hedge fund research institutions, and hedge funds summarized as:

對沖基金公司,是一間採取私人投資的合夥公司,以離岸基金的形式設立,按照公司的業績,提取佣金。基金公司會運用不同的投資策略,以賺取利潤為目標。
The hedge fund company is a taking of private investment partnership, set up in the form of offshore funds, according to the company’s performance, extraction of the commission. The fund company will use different investment strategies to make a profit as the goal.

第四:著名的美國先鋒對沖基金國際顧問公司VHFA的定義是:
Fourth: the definition of the famous American pioneer in hedge funds, international consultancy firms VHFA:
採取私人合夥方式組成公司或有限責任公司,基金公司,主要投資於:金融市場裏,已經公開發行的證券或金融衍生產品。
Take private partnership to form a corporation or limited liability companies, fund companies to invest in: the financial markets, public offering of securities or financial derivatives.

第五:美聯儲主席格林斯潘,曾經向美國國會就長期資本管理公司(LTCM)問題作證時,給出了一個對於「對沖基金公司」的間接定義:
Fifth: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told the U.S. Congress to testify on the Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), when given an indirect definition of “hedge funds":

格林斯潘說:LTCM是一家對沖基金公司,或者可以說,它是一家:通過將客戶限定於少數、客戶成員投資經驗十分老練、而且,投資者是富裕的個體組織;公司經過精心安排,避開國家金融監管機構的管制;基金公司在金融市場,追求大量金融產品的高風險投資和交易,是一間採取高回報率的共同基金。

Greenspan said: LTCM was a hedge fund company, or to say, it is a: by the customer is limited to a small number of very mature customer members of the investment experience, and that investors are wealthy individual organization; carefully arranged to avoid open the control of the country’s financial regulatory agencies; fund companies in the financial markets, the pursuit of high-risk investments and transactions of a large number of financial products, with a high rate of return on mutual funds.
根據以上所述的定義,尤其是格林斯潘的間接定義,我們認為,對沖基金並非「天外來客」,所謂對沖基金公司,實質不外乎是一種共同基金,只不過基金的組成,投資的安排,都較為特殊。投資者:包括私人投資者和機構投資者都比較少,由筆者舉出一個形象性的比喻,它就像是:「富有人家的投資俱樂部」,互相比較之下,普通共同基金便是「大眾投資人仕的投資俱樂部」。
According to the above definition, especially the indirect definition of Greenspan, we believe that hedge funds are not “extra-terrestrial", the so-called hedge fund company, the real is nothing more than a mutual fund, except that the composition of the Fund’s investment arrangements all the more special. Investors: including private investors and institutional investors than less, by the author cited the analogy of an image, it’s like: “rich people’s investment club", to each other compared to ordinary mutual fund is the “public investment person’s investment club".

由於對沖基金特殊的特殊組合安排,使得對沖基金公司,能夠避開金融監管機構的法律約制,公司不受監管之餘,更加可以,不受約束地,利用一切金融投資工具,獲取高額金錢的投資利潤,並且衍化出,對沖基金與普通的共同基金的諸多區別。

Due to the particular combination of hedge funds, special arrangements, making the hedge fund company can avoid the financial regulators about the legal system, the company is not a part of the regulatory, more can, and unfettered use of all financial investment tools, access to high money return on investment, and evolved into a lot of difference between hedge funds and ordinary mutual funds.

有一些金融專家認為:對沖基金經常出現虧損的關鍵是:公司採用杠杆方式投資,並且投資於具有高度風險的金融衍生產品。
Some financial experts believe that: hedge funds are often the key to a loss: the company with a leveraged investment, and invest in financial derivative products with a high degree of risk.
但是,實際上,正如IMF所指出的,其實有一些投資者或投機者,也有份參與,與對沖基金完全相同的投資操作,例如:商業銀行和投資銀行的自營業務部門,銀行長時期持有金融市場各種類別的股票、買賣衍生金融產品,銀行也採取與對沖基金相同的方式,變動它們的資產組合。
But, in fact, as the IMF pointed out that, in fact, some investors or speculators, who have participated in exactly the same with hedge funds, investment operations, such as: self-employed business departments of commercial banks and investment banks, banks for a long time have the stock of the various categories of financial markets, trading of derivative products, banks have also taken the same way as with hedge funds, to deal with the bank’s asset portfolio.

許多共同基金,養老基金,保險公司和大學捐款基金,都參與了與對沖基金相同的投資操作,並且名列在對沖基金的最重要投資者名冊之內。
Many mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies and university endowment funds, are involved in the same with hedge funds, investment operations, and is ranked within the most important hedge fund investors roster.

此外,投資者,也能夠從一個微觀的銀行體系中,可以觀察到,商業銀行的總資產和債務之間,竟然是銀行固有資本的好幾倍,從這個意義來分析,商業銀行的營運,也毫不例外地運用杠杆原理來操作。
In addition, investors can also be from a micro-banking system, can be observed between total assets and liabilities of commercial banks, turned out to be several times of the natural capital of the bank, in this sense to analyze the operation of commercial banks, also without exception the use of leverage to operate.

(一)美國政府對參與對沖基金的投資者,有嚴格的資格限制:
根據美國證券法例的規定:
1假如投資者用個人名義參加,投資者,最近兩年內,個人年收入至少在20萬美元以上;
2如果用家庭名義參加,夫婦倆人,最近兩年的收入,至少在30萬美元以上;
3投資者如果以機構名義參加,機構的淨資產價值,至少在100萬美元以上。
(1)The U.S. government to participate in the hedge fund investors, there are strict eligibility restrictions:
According to the provisions of U.S. securities laws:
1 if the investor with a personal capacity, investors, within the last two years, personal income, at least in more than $ 200,000;
2 If the name of the household to participate, the couple then the income in the last two years, at least in more than $ 300,000;
3 If the name of the institutional investors to participate in the net asset value of the institution, at least in the more than $ 1,000,000.

1996年美國政府作出新的規定:對沖基金參加者,會由100人擴大到500人。
參加者的條件是:投資者個人,必須擁有價值500萬美元以上的投資證券資產。而一般的共同基金,沒有這樣的限制。
In 1996, the U.S. government to make new rules: hedge funds, participants will expand by 100 to 500 people.
The participants are: individual investors, investment securities must have a value of $ 5,000,000 or more assets. Mutual funds in general, there is no such restriction.

(二)對沖基金公司的營運操作:

對沖基金公司的操作,不會受到政府監管限制,投資組合和交易方式,也沒有受到限制很,基金的主要合夥人和管理者,可以自由、靈活地運用各種投資技術,包括買空、賣空。買入以及賣出衍生工具產品或進行杠杆式交易。一般的共同基金,在營運的操作上,受到的限制,比較多樣化。
(2)Hedge fund operation of the company operations:
The operation of hedge funds, will not be subject to government regulatory restrictions, portfolio transactions, nor to be that restrictive, the Fund’s main partners and managers are free to flexibility in the use of a variety of investment techniques, including the purchase of empty, short . Buy and sell derivatives products or leveraged transactions. Mutual funds in general, in the operation of the operating restrictions imposed, are more diverse.

(三)對沖基金公司的監管:
目前對沖基金公司不受政府監管。美國1933年證券法、1934年證券交易法和1940年的投資公司法曾規定:不足100個投資者的投資機構,在成立時:不需要向美國證券管理委員會等金融主管部門登記,並且可以避免受到管制。
(3)Supervision of hedge funds:
Hedge fund companies are not subject to government regulation. United States Securities Act of 1933, the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 and the Investment Company Act of 1940 provides that: less than 100 investors, investment institutions, the establishment of: No registered to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and other financial authorities, and avoid subject to control.

對沖基金公司,不受政府監管的原因是:投資者,主要是人數十分之少,投資者的投資經驗豐富,而投資者又屬於富裕的個體,自我保護能力較強。
相比之下,政府對共同基金的監管就比較嚴格,這主要是因為投資者是大眾人仕,許多投資者,都缺乏對投資市場的瞭解;出於避免大眾風險、保護弱小者以及保證社會安全的考慮,政府於是實行嚴格監管。

The hedge fund, not subject to government regulation because: investors, mainly very small number of participants, and investors of investment experience, and investors are wealthy individuals, self-protection ability.
In contrast, government regulation of mutual funds more stringent, this is mainly because the investor is a public person, many investors, a lack of understanding of the investment market; out to avoid public risk, protect the weak, and to ensure social safety considerations, the government is so strict supervision.

(四)對沖基金公司的籌資方式:
美國私募證券法規定:對沖基金公司,在招募顧客時,不得利用任何傳媒做廣告;投資者主要通過下述四種方式參加對沖公司:
(4)Way of raising funds of hedge funds:
The United States Private Securities Act: hedge fund company in the recruitment of customer, shall not use any mass media advertising; investors participate in the hedging companies, mainly through the following four ways:
1 依據在上流社會獲得的所謂「投資可靠消息」;
2 直接認識某個特定對沖基金的管理者;
3 通過個別的其他基金推介;
4 由投資銀行、證券仲介公司或投資諮詢公司的特別介紹。
1 According to reliable sources of the so-called investment in polite society;
2 Direct knowledge of a particular hedge fund managers;
3 Recommend other funds of the individual;
4 By investment banks, securities broker or investment advisory firm special presentation.

(五)
1 「對沖」是一種甚麼性質的概念?
2 對沖基金經理為什麼要為「投資」進行「對沖」的操作?
(5)
1 “Hedging" is actually what the nature of the concept?
2 Why hedge fund managers want to “invest" in the operation of “hedging"?

請讓筆者,嘗試用最簡單的說話解釋「對沖」的概念:
Please let the author attempts to explain the concept of “hedging" the easiest to speak:
投資者,在期貨市場購入某一類「商品」的交易合約,商品的種類、數量與現貨市場「商品」的種類、數量相同;投資者使用購買回來的期貨「商品」交易合約,用來抵消現貨「商品」市場交易中,存在的價格風險。
Investors purchased the contracts of a certain type of “commodity" trading in the futures market, the type of goods, the number of spot market “commodity" type, the same number; investors to buy back the futures commodity exchange contracts used to offset the “cash" commodity market transactions, there is price risk.

最早期的對沖概念,為的是真正的保值,多數使用於「農產品市場」和「外匯市場」。
The earliest hedge concept is a real hedge against inflation, mostly used in the agricultural market and the foreign exchange market.

(六)為甚麼會有「套期保值者」的存在?
(6)Why have “hedgers" exist?
所謂「套期保值者」,一般都是實際生產者和消費者,或擁有商品將會出售的人,或者是日後需要購進商品的人,或者是擁有債權的人,日後將要收取債款的人,或者是負債人,而將來要償還債務的人等等。
Hedgers are the actual producers and consumers, or possession of the goods will be sold, or future purchases of commodities, or the person has a claim to receive dividend in future, or debt, and will have to repay the debt, and so on.
這一些人,都會面臨著,商品價格或者貨幣價格變動,而會遭受損失的風險。「對沖」其實是為回避風險而做的一種金融操作,目的是把暴露的風險:用期貨或期權等形式,把風險轉移出去金融市場,從而使自己的資產組合中,不須要承受風險。
讓筆者嘗試舉例如下:
Please let the author try following are examples:
有一家法國出口商,計劃在三個月後,將會要出口一批汽車到美國,出口商預期將收到100萬美元的貨款,但是,出口商是不會知道,三個月以後,美元兌歐羅的匯率,在三個月之後,會是上升或是下跌?如果美元下跌了,出口商將會蒙受損失。為了避免風險,出口商可以採取的舉措,便是在期貨市場上,賣空相同數額的美元(三個月以後交收款項),出口商經過「鎖定匯率」的舉措,從而避免,由於匯率的不確定性所帶來的風險。

A French exporter, plans will be exported after three months the number of cars to the United States, exporters are expected to receive $ 1,000,000 of the purchase price, however, exporters do not know, three months later, the U.S. dollar exchange rate against the euro, after three months, rose or fell? If the falling dollar, the exporters will suffer losses. Order to avoid risks, exporters can take the initiative is in the futures market, short selling the same amount of dollars (after three months of settlement payments), exporters after the “lock in exchange rates," the initiative, so as to avoid, due to exchange rate the uncertainty of the risks.
所謂「對沖」意思是:投資者,既可以「賣空」,又可以「買空」。
The so-called “hedge" means: investors, both “short selling, they can buy empty.

如果你已經擁有某一種特定的「資產」,並且準備將來把這一種「資產」賣掉,你就可以使用「賣空」的舉措,用來為這一種特定的資產,鎖定價格。
If you have a specific type of “assets", and is prepared in the future this kind of “assets" to sell, you can use the “short selling" initiatives, and used for a specific asset, to lock in prices.
如果投資者,將來要買入某一種特定的「資產」,不過,投資者擔心這種「資產」會漲價,投資者就可以利用「買空」的舉措,買入這一種特定「資產」的期貨。
Investors going to buy a certain kind of “assets", but investors worried about this “asset" prices will rise, investors can take advantage of “buy empty" initiative, to buy this kind of specific “assets" futures.

這裡所討論的問題中心點,是「期貨」購買時的價格,與將來到期日沽出的價格,彼此之間的差異;所以交易雙方,都不會真正「交收」這種「資產」;所以「交收」的實質,就只是期貨價格與期貨到期日之時的價格,實際上是一買、一賣,彼此之間價格的差異。
The center point of the issues discussed here, the purchase of “futures" price, selling price and the future maturity, the difference between each other; so both parties are not really “settlement" this “asset"; Therefore, when the price of the “settlement" of the essence, only the futures price and the futures maturity, the difference between each other prices.
從這個意義層面上來說,投資者對該特定「資產」的買入和賣出的行為,這就是「買空」與「賣空」的概念。
This significance level, investors in the buying and selling behavior of certain “assets", which is “buy empty" and “short selling" the concept.

(七)那麼,什麼是對沖基金的「對沖」行為?
(7)So, what is the behavior of hedge funds “hedge"?

對沖基金的鼻祖Jones是這樣說的:
The hedge fund originator Jones had this to say:

Jones這樣說:「對沖」行為,是一種金融市場操作之中,屬於中性的戰略;通過對價值被低估的證券,做「多頭」操作或者做「空頭」的操作,可以有效地,將投資股票的資本,放大倍數,並且,能夠利用有限的資金,可以進行大量的「買入」或者「賣出」的操作。
Jones said: “hedging" behavior, the operation of a financial market is a neutral strategy; undervalued securities, to do the “long" operation or “short" action can be effective, will invest stock of capital, magnification, and able to use the limited funds, a lot of “buy" or “sell" operation.

金融市場上,最初被廣泛運用的兩種投資工具是:
「賣空」操作以及「杠杆效應」操作。
Financial markets, initially two kinds of investment tools are widely used:
The operation of “short selling" and “leverage effect" operation.
Jones將這兩種投資工具,組合在一起;創立了一個嶄新的「投資系統」。
Jones將股票投資中的風險分為兩類:
Jones put the above two kinds of investment tools, combined together; the creation of a new investment system.
Jones in turn purchased the stock, the possible risks, subdivided into two categories:

1來自個別股票選擇的風險;
2來自整個金融市場的風險評估。
1 From the risk of individual stock options;
2 From the entire financial market risk assessment.
Jones試圖將這兩種風險分隔開。
Jones trying to separate these two risk.
Jones將一部分資產,用來保護被「買空」的股票;並憑藉此一種操作,作為「沖銷」所購入的股票,一旦遇到股票價格下跌時,所須要承受的風險。
Jones will be part of the assets used to protect the “empty buy" the stock; an operation, and by virtue of this as a" write off “the purchase of the stock, once the stock prices, have to bear risk.
Jones也儘量將市場風險,控制到可以承受風險的範圍內,同時,又利用杠杆效應,用來放大,從個別股票的正確選擇中,所獲得的利潤。
Jones also try to stock market risk, the control that can bear the risk within the same time, the leverage effect, used to amplify the correct choice of the individual stocks, the profits.
Jones所採取的策略是:買進特定的股票作「多頭」操作,再「賣空」另外一些股票。
即是說:Jones買入那些價值被低估的股票,並「賣空」那些價值被高估的股票。

Jones to take the strategy is: buy a particular stock for a “long" operation, then short selling some stocks.
In other words: Jones bought the stock price is undervalued, and “short selling" stock was overvalued.

Jones覺得:實施這種操作,操作投資的人就可以期望,不論市場的行情是上升或者是下跌,都可以獲得利潤。
Jones think: the implementation of this operation, operating investments can expect, regardless of market prices rise or fall, can make a profit.

因此,Jones基金的投資組合,會被分割成性質相反的兩部分:
Therefore, Jones, the Fund’s investment portfolio will be divided into two parts of opposite nature:
理論上來說:有一部分股票,每當股票市場,股票的價格上升時,基金公司可以獲得利潤;

In theory: part of the stock whenever the stock market, stock prices rise, the fund can make a profit;
理論上來說:另外一部分股票,每當股票市場,股票的價格下跌時,基金公司也可以獲得利潤。
In theory: another part of the stock whenever the stock market, stock prices fell, the fund companies can profit.
這就是「對沖基金公司」的「對沖」營運操作。
This is the hedge fund company’s so-called “hedge" trading operations.

儘管Jones覺得:正確選擇股票,比較看準市場趨勢更為重要,Jones還是根據個人對於金融市場觀察行情的預測,作為增加或減少股票的投資組合。
Although Jones feel: the correct choice of stock, relatively more important sights on market trends, Jones, based on personal, financial markets observed market forecast, as the increase or decrease the stock portfolio.

當股票市場,股票的格價,長期走勢是上漲的時候,對沖基金公司的投資,總的說來都能夠獲得利潤。
When the stock market, stock prices of long-term trend is up, the hedge fund’s investment in general are able to make a profit.

(八)對沖基金公司,加入了金融衍生工具的操作以後,舉例來說加入了「期權」的運作,情況會變得怎麼樣?
(8)Hedge fund Company, joined the operation of financial derivatives, for example joined the operation of the “options", the situation becomes how well?
筆者不妨再舉一個例子。
I wish to cite an example.

讓筆者嘗試舉出一例子來說明,假如:A公司股票的現價為$150元,倘若基金經理估計,一個月之後,股票價格,可以升值到$170元。
傳統的做法是:投資者會付出$150元,購買A公司的股票,當A公司股票價格到達$170元,投資者把股票賣出,獲得$20元的利潤,那麼,利潤與成本的比例為13.3%。

I try to give an example to illustrate: A company’s stock price is $ 150, if the fund manager estimated a month later, the stock price to rise in value to $ 170.
The traditional approach is: investors will pay $ 150, the purchase of the stock of Company A, when A company’s stock price to reach $ 170 investors to sell the stock for a profit of $ 20, then the profit and cost ratio of 13.3% .

但是,假如投資者使用「期權」操作,投資者可以使用每股$5元的保證金,買入A公司,市場價格為$150元的認購期權,如果一個月後,A公司的股價上升到$170元,投資者每一股的股票,便可以賺取$20元,投資者減去保證金所付出的$5元,便可以淨賺$15元(為簡便計算,沒有計算手續費)。
However, if investors use the “Options" operation, investors can use the $ 5 per share, margin, and the purchase of Company A, the market price of $ 150 call options, a month later, the company’s A shares rose to $ 170investors for each share of stock, they can earn $ 20, investors minus the margin paid $ 5 for a net profit of $ 15 (for simplicity, not counting fees).

換言之,投資者以每股5元的成本,便可以順利獲得利潤$15元;利潤與成本的比率為300%。如果投資者使用$150元去進行期權投資,他所賺得的金額不是$20元,而是驚人的$4500元了。

In other words, investors with a cost of $ 5 per share will be able to secure a profit of $ 15; profit and cost ratio of 300%.If the investor uses $ 150 to options investment, the amount he earned, not $ 20, but the amazing $ 4500.
由此可以見到,如果適當地運用衍生工具,只需以較低的成本,就可以獲取更多的利潤,就像物理學中的杠杆原理,在遠離支點的作用點,以較小的力度,能夠舉起十分靠近支點的沉重物件。
It can be seen, the proper use of derivatives, just at a lower cost, you can make more profit, like the physics of leverage, the role away from the fulcrum point, a smaller efforts to be able to lift heavy objects very close to the fulcrum.

金融學家將之稱為杠杆效應。這種情況下,假如說不是為了避險,而純粹是作市場的方向,並且運用杠杆來進行賭注,一旦做對了,當然能獲暴利,不過風險也極大,一旦失手,損失也呈杠杆效應放大。
Financial experts will be referred to as leverage. In this case, if not for hedging, but purely for the direction of the market, and use leverage to bet, once done, of course, the profiteer, but the risk significantly, if missed, the loss was the leverage effect amplification.

舉例來說,美國長期資本管理基金(LTCM),以公司的自有資金22億美元作為抵押,向金融機構貸款1250億美元。
For example, Long Term Capital Management Fund (LTCM), the company’s $ 2.2 billion of its own funds as collateral to loans from financial institutions $ 125 billion.
基金公司,將公司總資產的1200多億美元,購入不同類別的金融產品,涉及各種的有價證券的市值,超過一萬億美元,杠杆倍數達56.8,只要遇到:千分之一的風險,便立即遭受,滅頂之災。

Fund companies, the company’s total assets of more than 1200 billion dollars, to purchase different types of financial products, involving a variety of market value of the securities, over one trillion U.S. dollars, leverage up to 56.8, as long as: one-thousandth the risk was immediately subjected to extinction.

(九)筆者覺得:美元兌日本貨幣的初步目標價位將會是:86
(9)I think: the initial target price of U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency will be: 86

美國聯儲局對第三輪量化寬鬆措施(QE3)避而不談,而且對經濟前景也有較佳的評估,聯儲局同時亦提出,通貨膨脹於短期內存在壓力,所以金融市場揣測,聯儲局對推行量化寬鬆的措施,會是:「停一停,諗一諗」。
U.S. Fed avoided the third round of quantitative easing (QE3), and also have a better assessment of the economic outlook, the Fed also pointed out that inflation in the short term, there is pressure on the financial market speculation, the Fed on the implementation of quantitative easing measures, would be: “stop, recite and recite".

聯儲局暫時停止印刷鈔票購買美國債券,會利淡美國債券而利好美元貨幣,因此美國債券長期以及短期利息,都向上飆升;
Fed temporarily stop printing money to buy U.S. bonds, U.S. bonds bearish for the dollar currency, U.S. bonds long-term and short-term interest, are soaring upward;
美國10年期債券孳息,已經上升到2.28厘,突破了過去數個月,由1.8厘至 2.1厘的橫行區域,反映美元強勢趨向、弱勢趨向的美滙指數,亦已經升越 80關口。
U.S.10-year bond yield has risen to 2.28%, breaking through the past few months, from 1.8% to 2.1% rampant region, reflecting the trend of a stronger U.S. dollar, the weak trend of the U.S. exchange rate has already risen more 80 point mark the location.

由於聯儲局只是承諾維持較低利息至2014年底,對於重新推行(QE3)的日期,沒有提及。
Fed is committed to maintaining lower interest rates to the end of 2014, for the re-introduction (QE3) the date is not mentioned.

筆者由聯儲局的動向,觀察所得:隨着美國經濟,續漸慢慢改善過來,聯儲局已不再傾向再次推行,任何形式的(QE3),目的是避免推升通貨膨脹。
By the movements of the Fed, the author observed: as the U.S. economy gradually slowly turned the corner; the Fed has not inclined to re-implementation of any form (QE3), the purpose is to avoid pushing up inflation.
加上在未來兩年時間內,聯儲局在2014年前,維持低息的論調,金融市場也表示,存有懷疑態度,這一些信息結合在一起,其實將會暗示:未來美國的貨幣政策,將會由極度寬鬆的局面轉向收緊銀根狀況。

Plus within the next two years, the Federal Reserve in 2014, to maintain low-interest argument, also said the financial markets, there is skepticism, combined with some information, in fact, will be implied: the future of U.S. monetary policy,will be extremely easy situation to tighten the money supply situation.

相反而觀之,日本中央銀行,雖然未有加推新的(QE)措施,但就推出了2萬億日本貨幣的低利息貸款,用來支持國內高增長產業的借貸。
The contrary view, Japan’s central bank, although failed to continue to implement additional new (QE) measures, but on the launch of low-interest loans of 2 trillion Japanese currency, used to support the borrowing of the domestic high-growth industry.

日本政府,向日本銀行,提供2萬億日本貨幣的低利息貸款,是否能夠支持,國內高增長產業取得成功,這不是重點;筆者總是覺得,銀行獲得這些利息極低的貸款之後,最終都會有很多資金,會流入金融市場,進行外匯操作。

After the Japanese government to the Bank of Japan to provide low-interest loans of 2 trillion Japanese currency, is able to support high growth industry success is not the point; I always feel that banks loan interest is very low, and ultimately there will be a lot of money will flow into the financial markets, foreign exchange operations.

目前金融市場的局面會是:美國政府開始收緊資金的供給;而日本政府,仍然採取放寬資金的措施,金融市場會預料:美國與日本利息差距,將會毫無疑問地逐步拉闊;令到金融市場的套息交易過程中,被沽空的貨幣,會由美元轉為日本貨幣,這是筆者繼續看淡日本貨幣的最大原因。
The current financial market situation: the U.S. government began to tighten the supply of funds; the Japanese government still take measures to relax capital, financial markets would have predicted: that the interest gap in the United States and Japan, will no doubt gradually widen; make interest arbitrage transactions in the financial markets, short selling of the currency from U.S. dollars into Japanese currency, which is the biggest reason I remain negative Japanese currency.
日本去年經歷了世紀地震和海嘯,但是日本貨幣,在七個國家的中央銀行攜手干預後,竟然又再次輾轉上揚,美元兌日本貨幣,在2011年10月底,更加改寫了匯率的「歷史紀錄高位」;當時,曾經迫使日本中央銀行進入金融市場,作出干預的行動。

Japan experienced a century earthquake and tsunami, but the Japanese currency, the central banks in seven countries to join hands after the intervention, even again removed rise, U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency, the end of October 2011, more rewrite the exchange rate of the “historical record high"; At that time, had forced the Japanese central bank access to financial markets and make the action of the intervention.

當時,很多金融界人仕,對於日本貨幣的強勢,都感到愕然;當日金融市場裏,唯一的解釋是:日本經濟的兩大支柱,仍然維持貿易收支有盈餘以及經常賬目收支都有盈餘,由於日本政府,出現雙項盈餘,日本政府已經擁有龐大的外滙儲備,這些盈餘儲備,越積越多,成為日本貨幣滙價的支持動力。

At that time, many of the financial person for the Japanese currency’s strength, felt stunned; the date of the financial markets, the only explanation is: the two pillars of the Japanese economy remained the balance of trade surplus and current account balance of payments has surplus, because the Japanese government, the emergence of a dual surplus, the Government of Japan already has a huge foreign exchange reserves, these surplus reserves, piled up to support the power of currencies in Japan.

今時今日,日本政府已經由雙項目盈餘,變成雙項目出現赤字,經濟現實情況,又記錄得負增長,日本的利息率,是所有發達國家之中,位列最低層;日本中央銀行,在2012年2月商議利息定位後,把增加購買債券的規模,增加到10萬億日本貨幣以及設定了通貨膨脹目標。

日本政府採取上述兩項的舉措,更加令日本貨幣,繼續延伸弱勢。

Today, the Japanese government by the two-account surplus, into pairs project a deficit, the economic realities, but also recorded a negative growth, Japan’s interest rate, is ranked the lowest level among all developed countries; Japan’s central bank in 2012negotiate the interest positioned in February to increase the size of the purchase of bonds to 10 trillion Japanese currency and the setting of inflation targets.

The Japanese government to take these two initiatives: The more the Japanese currency, continue to extend the disadvantaged.

現時,全世界主要的中央銀行,都不斷擴大量化寬鬆的規模,日本政府排列位置,是最高的級別;希臘債務危機暫時緩和下來,亦削弱了日本貨幣成為避險貨幣的功能;
At present, the world’s major central banks, expanding the scale of quantitative easing, the Japanese government is in place, is the highest level; debt crisis in Greece temporarily eased, but also weaken the Japanese currency as a hedge currency;

再加上美國的利息飆升,美國國債兩年期的孳息,接近 0.4厘;日本政府國債,兩年期孳息是0.1厘,由於兩個國家的孳息差距拉闊了,日本貨幣,已經再度取代美元,成為套息交易的主要融資貨幣。

Coupled with the soaring U.S. interest, the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds for the biennium, nearly 0.4%; Japanese government bonds, the biennial yield is 0.1% widening the gap due to the interest of both countries, the Japanese currency has re-replace the dollar as the main funding currency for carry trade.

日本政府2012年1月份,已經出現了,高達4,373億日本貨幣的流動帳赤字;日本國內經濟,已經到達糟糕的地步;目前日本政府,依賴為經濟支柱的出口業,也開始告急;國家經濟前景惡化,也只會令到日本貨幣,繼續成為弱勢貨幣。
Japanese Government in January 2012, there have been, up to 4,373 billion Japanese currency liquidity account deficit; Japan’s domestic economy has reached the point of bad; the Japanese government, dependent on the economic pillar of the export sector, have begun an emergency; the country’s economic prospects deterioration will only make the Japanese currency continued to be a weak currency.

即使日本中央銀行,已經於2012年2月,推出10萬億日本貨幣的(QE),日本政府,對於繼續擴大(QE)的呼聲,並未減弱。日本政府,決心推跌日圓的立場,十分明顯。
Japan’s central bank, already in February 2012, launched 10 trillion (QE) of the Japanese currency, the Japanese government, continue to expand (QE), the voice, not weakened. The Japanese government determined to push down the yen’s position very clear.

筆者根據上述的事實顯示:筆者維持,繼續看淡日本貨幣的前景,美元兌日本貨幣的初步目標價位是:86,支持位置是:81。
Based on the above facts, the author: I maintain, continue to dim the prospects of the Japanese currency, the initial target price of U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency is: 86, support the position: 81.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

(Chapter 23)Greek old debts replacement of new debt, arbitration of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) will not trigger credit default swaps?


(Chapter 23)Greek old debts replacement of new debt, arbitration of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) will not trigger credit default swaps?.

(Chapter 23)希臘舊債置換新債,經過國際掉期及衍生工具協會(ISDA)仲裁,不會觸發(CD S)信貸違約掉期?
(Chapter 23)Greek old debts replacement of new debt, arbitration of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) will not trigger credit default swaps?

國際掉期及衍生工具協會(ISDA)解說:
International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) Commentary:
ISDA 國際掉期及衍生工具協會是一個大型全球貿易組織,其成員是進行衍生產品私下交易和場外交易的公司。它負責制定ISDA的主協定,即衍生品的標準化合同。
International Swaps and Derivatives Association is a large global trade organization of companies who trade in private and over-the-counter derivatives. It was responsible for the creation of the ISDA master agreement, a standardized contract for trading in derivatives.

(一) 國際掉期及衍生工具協會(ISDA)經過冗長會議後宣佈:由15間大型銀行及對沖基金組成的委員會,一致裁定:希臘新債置換舊債的計劃,不會觸發信貸違約掉期(CDS)。

(1)of the International Swaps and derivatives Association (ISDA) announced after lengthy meetings: a committee composed of 15 large banks and hedge funds, by a unanimous decision: the plans of the replacement of old debts of the Greek new debt will not trigger the credit default swaps(CDS).

但是,這一次的裁定,並沒有處理,希臘政府有可能加入的「集體行動條款」(CAC)。所以,觸發希臘信貸違約掉期(CDS)的風險,仍然會存在。

However, this time the ruling did not deal with the Greek government may join the “collective action clauses (CAC). Therefore, the trigger of Greece, the risk of credit default swaps (CDS), will still exist.

ISDA收到兩項有關啟動希臘信貸違約掉期(CDS)的申請裁決,包括:

ISDA received two for a ruling related to the start of Greek credit default swaps(CDS), including:

要求ISDA裁決:希臘的削減債務計劃:會令到私人債權人的償債優先排序,排列位置會後於歐洲中央銀行,私人債權人覺得並不合理。

requires ISDA ruling: Greece’s debt reduction plan: will lead to private creditors, the debt service prioritization, alignment after the European Central Bank, the private creditors think that is unreasonable.

(二) 希臘政府與私人債權人達成的協議,會構成信貸違約掉期(CDS)。

(2) the Greek government reached agreement with private creditors, would constitute a credit default swap (CDS).

但是,SDA一致裁定,兩項申請裁決結果,都是無效。
ISDA認為:上述兩項投訴,都不會構成「信貸事件違約」,所以,希臘國債中,淨值32.5億美元的信貸違約掉期,將不需要作出賠償。

However, the SDA unanimously ruled that the two applications, the result of the ruling, are invalid.
ISDA: The above two complaints would not constitute a credit event of default , Greek government bonds, net of $ 3.25 billion in credit default swaps, will not be required to pay compensation.

不過,ISDA仍然有一項保留條款,該會繼續指出:希臘的情況,還會繼續發展下去,目前的決定,並不會影響私人債權人,日後再次要求,申請啟動希臘債務違約的仲裁機會(CDS)。
However, the ISDA remains a saving clause. ISDA continues: the case of Greece will continue to develop. ISDA’s decision does not affect the private creditors, future requirements; apply for arbitration opportunity to start the Greek debt default.

金融市場的投資者估計,由於參與置換新債的私人債權人,自動參與削減債務的人數,絕對不會達到90%以上,希臘政府,最終或要引入,以及動用「集體行動條款」,強制債權人置換新債,才能令到削減債項計劃,能夠順利進行。
Investors in the financial market is estimated that involved in replacement of new debt to private creditors, and automatically participate in a number of debt reduction, will never reach more than 90%, the Greek government, and ultimately to introduce, as well as the use of " collective action clauses “to force the creditors replacement new debt in order to reduce the debt plan can proceed smoothly.

但根據ISDA的規則,假設ISDA動用「集體行動條款」,會被金融市場投資者視為:希臘政府,實際上已經違約。

However, according to the rules of the ISDA, assuming that the ISDA utilized the “collective action clauses", financial markets and investors will be considered: the Greek government has actually to breach of contract.

ISDA委員會的成員,包括15名投票委員;成員包括高盛、摩根大通及德銀等。ISDA設有兩名顧問委員,ISDA裁決過程,經常被投資者批評,欠缺透明度;因為,每一次ISDA作出的裁決,都毋須解釋裁決的理由。投資者,亦不能上訴,金融界的人士,曾經屢次指出:裁決制度,容易造成利益衝突。

ISDA members of the Committee, including 15 voting members; members include Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank, the ISDA has two advisory committee, the ISDA award process, investors are often criticized the lack of transparency; every ISDA made rulings are not required to explain the reasons for the award. Investors cannot be appealed, the financial sector, has repeatedly pointed out: the ruling system, likely to cause a conflict of interest.

(三)希臘的「私人債權人,自願性參與削減債務計劃」(PSI)的解說:
(3)of the Greek “private creditors voluntary participation to reduce debt plan" (PSI) explanation:

PSI計畫的利益相關者,大致可以分為六個組別:
1歐元區核心國家Euro area core countries
2歐元區會員國家Euro area member states
3歐洲中央銀行European Central Bank
4國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)International Monetary Fund (IMF)
5希臘民間債權人Greece’s private creditors
6希臘政府Greek government

由於希臘國債,涉及利益的機構很多,包括:整個歐洲乃至全球的金融組織,這些機構或組織,彼此之間,正在編織一張龐大的“博弈網絡”。在這個多邊博弈網絡中,很可能會交替出現結果,而且每一次的結果,都將成為希臘的「生死時刻」。

Greek government bonds, involving the interests of the institution, include: the whole of Europe and the global financial organizations, institutions or organizations, with each other, are weaving a huge game network. In the multilateral game network, it may be alternating results, and the results will become the “life and death moment" in Greece.

儘管,歐洲中央銀行在希臘國債,擔當的角色與其他會員國家,官方債權人擔當的角色,目前還未能確立彼此之間的定位。但是,希臘政府與私人債權人之間的談判,正在進入白熱化階段,預計很快將會有結果。

Although the European Central Bank in the Greek government bonds and the role of other member countries, the role of official creditors, yet failed to establish their positioning. However, negotiations between the Greek Government and private creditors, is heating up, the expected results will soon be.

(四)希臘政府進行削減債務的過程中,可能會採取「集體行動條款」或同意退出條款(CAC)解說:
(4) The Greek government debt reduction process may take collective action clauses “or to agree to withdraw clauses (CAC) explanation:

惠譽評級機構,把希臘主權債務評級,下調至「最垃圾級別」,或許會引發金融市場出現恐慌。
Fitch rating agency, Greece’s sovereign debt rating lowered to “the most junk," may lead to financial markets panic.

2012年2月22日,歐元區的領袖,達成了幫助希臘政府,紓緩財政困難的協定之後,評級機構惠譽即時將希臘的違約評級(IDR),由CCC級下調至C級。

February 22, 2012, leaders of the euro area reached to help the Greek government to ease the financial difficulties the agreement, the rating agency Fitch immediately Greece Default Rating (IDR) down to the C-class level by the CCC.

「C等評級」是惠譽評級系統中,列入垃圾級別的第11級,也就是說:列入了「最垃圾級別」。
惠譽稱,希臘的「C等評級」,說明:希臘近期之內,極有可能發生違約行為。
假若債務互換計劃,能夠順利完成後:希臘債券發行人的違約評級,將會下調至「有限度違約」。

“C rating" is Fitch’s rating system, included in the spam level 11, that is: The inclusion of the “junk".
Fitch said the Greek “C rating" Description: Greece within the near future, most likely the case of default.
If the debt swap scheme, after the successful completion of: Greek bond issuer default rating will be reduced to “limited breach “.

惠譽的降級措施,並未讓金融市場,感到意外。分析師們認為,短期內,希臘還需要滿足多項條件,才能獲得第二輪貸款;而民間債權人參與(PSI),將導致觸發CDS違約的可能性增加。在長時間內,希臘還須要面臨:經濟增長緩慢的擔憂。

Fitch’s downgrade of measures and does not let the financial markets by surprise. Analysts believe that the short term, Greece also need to meet a number of conditions in order to obtain a second round of the loan; and private creditors to participate in (PSI), will lead to increased likelihood of defaults trigger CDS. Long period of time, Greece also needs to face: slow economic growth worries.

(五)希臘政府在近期內,很可能會違約?
(5)Greek government in the near future, it may be breach of contract?

希臘政府與私人部門債權人,在PSI互換方面已經達成了基本共識。包括:在會計帳務上,減記希臘政府債券面值的53.5%。
希臘政府又發出聲明,擴充了債務互換的條件,並且確認:希臘政府有意通過希臘法律,將會在債券互換協定中,引入「集體行動條款」(Collective Action Clauses,簡稱CACs).

The Greek government and the private sector creditors have reached a basic consensus in the PSI swap. Include: reduction of 53.5% of the nominal value of the Greek government bond market accounting.
The Greek government issued a statement: expansion of the debt swaps conditions, and confirmed: The Greek government intends to Greek law, will be in the bond swap agreements, the introduction of collective action clauses “(Collective, Action Clauses referred to CACs).

惠譽在發佈的降級聲明中指出:這一次債券互換計劃完成後,將會構成,符合評級機構標準的「壞債互換」要求,(Distressed Debt Exchange,簡稱DDE)。

Fitch downgrade released a statement that: after the completion of the bond swap plan would constitute" bad debt swap “requirements, in line with the rating agencies Standard (Distressed Debt Exchange, or DDE).

惠譽認為:在債務互換實施後,希臘評級,將被下調至「有限度違約」(Restricted Default,簡稱RD)。
落實新債務互換後,希臘債務主權評級,也將被撤去「有限度違約」的評級,
並會根據「評級機構,對違約後結構和信用狀況,進行的評估」再次獲得評級。

Fitch said: After the implementation of the debt swap, the rating of Greece will be reduced to “limited breach of contract" (the Restricted the Default referred to the RD).
The implementation of the new debt swap, the sovereignty of the Greek debt rating will also be removed the rating of “limited breach of contract"
And again according to the rating agencies, on the structure and credit-default situation, the assessment carried out rating.

惠譽評級機構還表示:受此次債務互換影響的希臘國債,包括:那些儘管沒有被償付,但被納入強制性重組的債券評級,評級將會被下調至D級。
Fitch rating agency also said: Greek government bonds were affected by the impact of debt swap, including: who are currently not being pay, but was included in the mandatory restructuring of bond rating, the rating will be lowered to D-level.

(六)希臘國債投資者,將會被迫接受債務削減的現實?
(6)G reek bond investors will be forced to accept the reality of debt reduction?

根據歐元區財政部長通過的PSI協議,這一次債務互換計劃,目標在於減免1070億歐元的希臘債務負擔,相當於2011年希臘GDP的50%。
根據PSI協議規定:私人債權人被迫削減的債務幅度,高達53.5%。
而且,由希臘政府重新發出債券的贖回期限,會由11年到30年不等。在債務互換協議中,每100歐元面值的舊債券,將會換得面值31.5歐元的新發行希臘債券;及由(EFSF)發行的面值只有15歐元的短期票據。

Accordance with the agreement of the euro zone finance ministers through the PSI, this time debt swap program, the goal is relief for the Greek debt burden of 107 billion euros, equivalent to 50% of the 2011 Greek GDP.
According to the PSI agreement provides that: private creditors were forced to cut the debt margin, up 53.5 percent.
Moreover, by the Greek government re-issued bonds of the redemption period, ranging from 11 to 30 years. Per € 100 face value of old bonds in the debt swap agreement, will be in exchange for 31.5 euros each new issue of Greek bonds; short-term notes issued by the (EFSF) the nominal value of € 15.

希臘財政部長維尼澤洛斯(Evangels Venizelos)於2012年2月21日表示,希臘政府會立刻進行立法,訂出互換債券的細節。
希臘政府進一步發佈一項聲明稱:由希臘政府訂出置換債券的法規,將會包括所謂的集體行動條款(CAC),即是:如果獲得多數持債人同意,執行互換計劃,這一條款,將會迫使:所有拒絕債務互換的持債人,都必須接受互換。

Greek Finance Minister Evangels Venizelos on February 21, 2012, the Greek government immediately legislates to set out the details of the swap bonds.
The Greek government further issued a statement saying: replacement bonds and regulations set by the Greek government, including the so-called collective action clauses (CAC), that is: if the majority held the consent of the Lenders, the implementation of the swap plan, this provision will force: all refused to debt swaps, debt holders, must accept the swap.

(七)金融市場,對希臘政府,能否落實,執行換債協議,依然持有質疑的態度?
其實,惠譽對希臘國債評級的降級,也反映了金融市場,對希臘的經濟前景,依然持有質疑態度。
從短期來看,這一份所謂已經達成的協議,還是須要獲得,部分歐元區會員國家議會的批准,這一個環節,其實已經存在了,削減希臘債務的協議,能不能落實執行的不確定因素。

(7)Financial markets, the Greek government can implement execution-for-debt agreement, still holds a questioning attitude?
In fact, the Fitch downgrade of Greece’s debt rating also reflects the financial markets, the economic prospects of the Greek, still holds a questioning attitude.
The short term, a so-called agreements already reached, or need to obtain parliamentary approval of part of the Eurozone member states, this one procedure, in fact, already exists whether to cut Greek debt agreement, can implementation, there have been uncertainties.

因為,為確保希臘獲得第二批救助款,希臘還需要滿足,「歐洲金融三頭馬車」訂下的三個條件:

Because, to ensure that the Greek government for the second batch of bailout loans, Greece also needs to meet the three conditions laid down by the troika of the European financial:

a首先,在本月底歐元區各個會員國政府或(IMF)在新方案上簽字之前,希臘必須滿足24項「前期行動」的要求,才有希望獲得新二輪貸款援助。這些要求包括:解僱表現欠佳的收稅員;通過法律,將一些壟斷性行業,進行自由化發展;收緊賄賂的規則;2012年6月份前,出售至少兩個國有企業等。

First, prior to the end of this month the euro area the various Governments of Member States or (IMF) signed the new program, Greece must meet the requirements of 24 “early action", there is hope of a new two loan assistance. These requirements include: the dismissal of the poor performance of the taxman; through legal monopoly industries, the liberalization of the development; to tighten the rules of bribery; June 2012, to sell at least two state-owned enterprises.

b其次,希臘政府必須同意國際監督人員更大規模、永久性地駐紮希臘,從而即時監督希臘政府的支出決定。
b Second, the Greek government must agree to large-scale international monitors permanently stationed in Greece, and thus immediate supervision of the Greek government’s spending decisions.

c第三,歐洲金融三頭馬車發放的救助貸款,全數存入一個託管帳戶,希臘政府必須確保,帳戶內的餘額,隨時能夠支付,至少3個月應該償還的債務。不過,這個託管帳戶,將會是臨時性質的,因為,希臘政府已經同意,通過修正憲法,將償付債務欠款,列為財政支出中,最優先處理的項目。

Third, the troika of the European financial rescue loan granted full deposited into an escrow account, the Greek government must ensure that the account balance at any time be able to pay at least three months, the debt should be repaid. However, this escrow account will be temporary in nature, because the Greek government has agreed to amend the constitution, debt arrears as financial expenditure, the top priority project.

(八)此外,高盛進一步指出,希臘目前還存在著,兩個令人擔憂的現實:
a 希臘政府在處理新債置換舊債的過程中,可能會觸發(CDS)的保險賠償追索。
b 希臘經濟增長緩慢,令人擔憂希臘的前景,並不樂觀。

(8)In addition, Goldman Sachs further stated that the Greek government, the existence of two alarming reality:
A Greek government in the process of replacement of old debts of the new debt may trigger (CDS) of compensation recourse.
B Greek economic growth is slow, worrying prospects for Greece, it is very pessimistic.

因為,第一方面,民間債權人:由於須要承受的損失增加,希臘政府,有可能會動用集體行動條款(CAC),強迫債權人接受,新債換舊債的行政措施,並且觸發(CDS)的保險索償風潮。這些都是近期金融市場,不斷發生市況波動的源頭。

第二方面:不受希臘國內人民歡迎的,經濟結構性改革與國家企業私有化,是否能夠繼續推行,尚在未知之數。因為這些舉措,有可能會導致,希臘與其他歐盟成員國,進一步產生摩擦,引發希臘退出歐元區的風險。

Because, first aspect, the private creditors: due to increased need to bear the loss, the Greek government, may be the use of collective action clauses (CAC), to force creditors to accept the administrative measures of the new debt for old debt, and trigger (CDS) insurance claims wave. These are the recent financial market continuing source of market volatility.
The second: is not welcomed by the people of Greece, economic structural reform and privatization of state enterprises, is able to continue to implement, it is still unknown. Because of these initiatives, may result in Greece and other EU member states, further friction, lead to the risk of the Greek out of the euro.

早在惠譽對希臘國債,評定降級之前,希臘政府,已經通過了,目的是為希臘政府,削減接近1000億歐元的,債券置換法案。
希臘政府,立即把這一項具有爭議性條款的法案:包括迫使民間債權人,接受債務削減的方案,提交給了希臘議會。
有知情人士透露,最終債權人的實際削減債款,可能高達75%左右。

As early as before the Fitch assessment downgrade of Greek government bonds, the Greek government has passed, the purpose is to cut close to 100 billion euros, the bond replacement bill for the Greek government.
The Greek government immediately put controversial provisions of the bill: including force private creditors to accept the debt reduction program, and submitted to the Greek Parliament.
Informed sources, the actual reduction of debt of the ultimate creditor, may be as high as 75%.

根據法案內容,希臘政府:將會由議會賦予法定權力,進行大規模更改國債合同的內容,並實施所謂的:集體行動條款(CAC),假如獲得大多數債權人的批准,新債券的所有條款,將適用於所有擁有國債的債權人。

According to the contents of the bill, the Greek government: will by Parliament to give statutory powers to carry out large-scale change the content of the national debt contracts and the implementation of the so-called: collective action clauses (CAC).Subject to the consent of the majority of creditors, all the terms of the new bond will apply to all creditors with government bonds.

不過,從惠譽的衡量角度看來,希臘政府如果獲得議會援權,強制執行,新債置換舊債的舉措,將會構成「強迫性債券置換」的實施,這將會促使惠譽,對希臘國債實施進一步的大幅降級。

However, Fitch measure the point of view, the Greek government for parliamentary empowerment to enforce replacement of old debts of the new debt initiative, will constitute the implementation of the forced bond replacement, this will be prompted Fitch, Greek bonds the implementation of further substantial downgrade.

惠譽表示,在債券置換計畫開始之後,希臘的評級將會被進一步降至「限制性違約」級別,也就是距離徹底「違約」僅有一個級別的差異。

Fitch said the bond replacement program began, the rating of Greece will be further reduced to “restricted default" level, which is the distance completely “default" is only one level of difference.

根據希臘政府官員透露:在正式法案公佈後,民間債權人:必須在兩星期之內,考慮接受或與拒絕;到了2012年3月9日,希臘政府,將會決定:債權人接受減債法案的百份率,是否足以讓方案得以落實推行。如果一切順利,新舊債券置換計劃,將會從2012年3月12日正式開始。

According to the Greek government officials said: after the announcement of the formal bill, private creditors: within two weeks, consider accept or refuse; March 9, 2012, the Greek government will be decided: the creditors accept debt reduction percentage of the bill, is sufficient to allow the program to be implemented. If all goes well, old and new bonds of the replacement plan will be officially began on March 12, 2012.

(九)希臘政府暫時獲得喘息的機會:
希臘政府,在不到兩年的時間內,接受第二次外部的貸款救助。
2010年5月,歐元區各個會員國家的政府和國際貨幣基金組織,同意向希臘政府發放,總額為1100億歐元的第一次救助貸款。
希臘政府,如果無法得到,第二次救助貸款,希臘政府將在2012年3月份,由於無法償還到期的145億歐元國債,便會宣佈債務違約。

(9)The Greek government temporary respite:
The Greek government, within two years, accepted the relief of the secondary external loans.
In May 2010, the Government of the member countries of the euro area and the IMF agreed to the Greek government issued a total of € 110 billion in bailout loans for the first time.
Greek government cannot get a second bailout loans, the Greek government in March 2012, due to inability to pay 14.5 billion euros maturing government bonds, will be announced the debt default.

根據文件顯示:1300億歐元貸款中,其中一小部分,將會被用於2012年3月20日到期的145億歐元債務的償還。(實際金額,經過削減,大約是72.5億歐元);救助貸款的絕大多數金額,將會用於債券互換計劃以及確保希臘銀行體系運轉穩定;另外還有300億,將會用於支付,民間債權人達成還款協議後的資金需求;剩餘的230億歐元,將會替希臘銀行,提供重組資金。

According to the paper: a loan of 130 billion euros, of which a small part, will be used for the repayment of 14.5 billion euros of debt maturing on March 20, 2012.(The actual amount of reduction, about 7.25 billion euros); the vast majority of the rescue loan amount will be used for bond swap plan and to ensure that the Greek banking system functioning and stability; in addition to 30 billion will be used to pay civil creditors to reach agreement for the repayment of capital requirements; the remaining 23 billion euros will be for the Bank of Greece, restructuring funds.

如果歐元區,拒絕伸出援助之手,希臘政府只能陷入財政崩潰,最後只能宣佈無序違約,跟著整個歐洲銀行系統也會遭殃。
在這種情況下,希臘政府極可能會效仿冰島政府的做法,退出歐元區,擺脫統一貨幣的束縛,實行匯率貶值,開放市場,吸引外資進入希臘謀求發展。

If the euro zone, refused to lend a helping hand, the Greek government only turn into a financial collapse, and finally only announced disorderly breach of contract, followed by the entire European banking system will suffer.
In this case, the Greek government will most likely follow the example of the practice of the Government of Iceland, out of the euro, to get rid of the shackles of the single currency, the implementation of exchange rate depreciation, market liberalization to attract foreign investment into Greece to seek development.

假使希臘離開歐元區,將會帶來人們對歐元區,存在意義的質疑。
If Greece leave the euro zone, will bring the euro area, there are significant doubts.

有人覺得:既然歐元區本身的貨幣政策,阻礙了歐元區會員國家債務問題的解決;相反,離開歐元區,並且實行貨幣貶值,如果成為解決債務問題的主要辦法,那麼,其他債務嚴重的國家,在遇到困難時,也可能會選擇同一樣的道路。

Some people think: Since the monetary policy of the euro area itself, hindering the euro member countries debt problems to solve; the contrary, Greece leave the euro zone, and currency depreciation, if this choice, the main way to solve the debt problem, then, other heavily indebted countries in the face of difficulties, but also may choose the same road.

這樣,便會啟動了歐元解體的閘門,歐元區的存在就很危險了。因此,即使希臘礙於國內壓力,最終沒有承諾,採取緊縮措施;歐盟也會毫不猶豫,全力進行援助希臘政府解決財政困難。

Starts the disintegration of the gate of the euro, the existence of the euro area is very dangerous. Therefore, even if Greece is due to domestic pressures, and ultimately there is no commitment to take austerity measures; EU will not hesitate to efforts to aid the Greek government to solve the financial difficulties.

(十)希臘政府的債務重組計劃,仍然存在變數?
(10)Greek government’s debt restructuring plan, there are still variables?

根據希臘政府的債務重組協議的要求,民間債券持有人,對所持規模總計約1300億歐元 (約合1720億美元) 資金,進行幅度為53.5%的債務削減。歐盟的目標是:使得希臘2020年前的債務,佔GDP比例,降低至120.5%的水準。這一次的削減比例,超過了去年10月歐洲聯盟高峰會上,共同達成的50%。

Accordance with the requirements of the debt restructuring agreement with the Greek government, private bondholders, the total held by the scale of about 130 billion euros (about $ 172 billion) of funds to carry out the range of 53.5% debt reduction. EU’s objectives are: to make Greece’s 2020 debt percentage of (GDP) decreased to 120.5% of the standard. This time to cut the proportion of more than the EU summit last October, jointly reached 50%.

同時,民間債權人,還要被迫接受降低債券利率;據悉,首3年的利率是2%,接下來的5年利率是3%,八年後的利率是4.2%。這種利率安排,低於目前金融市場的利率。

Meanwhile, the private creditors, but also forced to accept lower bond interest rates; It is reported that the interest rate is 2% in the first three years of the next five annual interest rate is 3 percent, eight years after the interest rate is 4.2%. Arrangements of the current interest rate significantly lower than the current financial market interest rates.

綜合以上的論述,持有希臘國債的民間債權人,損失淨值將會達到70%-75%。
這些舉措:肯定會引發民間債券持有人的不滿,而且絕對會引起法律糾紛。

Summing up the above discussion held by private creditors of the Greek government bonds, net of losses will reach 70% -75%.
These initiatives: will certainly lead to the dissatisfaction of civil bondholders, and certainly give rise to legal disputes.

筆者覺得:民間債權人,面對兩難的困境:假使自願削減債款,將會蒙受巨大金錢損失;但是,如果不自動進行削減債款,希臘政府便會陷入無序違約;並且,歐洲區內的銀行、保險公司等金融機構,將會為希臘政府的破產,付出更大的金錢代價。

I think: private creditors face a dilemma: if voluntary reduction of debt, will suffer a huge loss of money; If, however, does not automatically cut debt, the Greek government will fall into disorder breach of contract; and the European region banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions, will be the bankruptcy of the Greek government, to pay a higher price in money.

筆者覺得:民間債權人選擇不同意削減債款,主要的原因是:有(CDS)的存在。
因為民間債權人,可以把債款削減造成的損失,有可能被(CDS)對沖和補償。

I think: private creditors choose not to agree to debt reduction, the main reason is: the existence of the (CDS).
Private creditors, the debt to reduce the losses caused, there may be (CDS) hedging and compensation.

但是,這種操作也會存在極大的風險。民間債權人的債款遭受削減後,希臘政府的債務問題,或者暫時可以緩解經濟危機;但是,金融危機的風險,會被轉移到保險公司或那些出售(CDS)保險的銀行,如果保險公司或銀行的償付能力出現問題,又將會引爆另外一類別的金融危機。

However, this debt reduction operations, there will still be at great risk. Private creditors debt suffered cuts, the Greek government’s debt problems, or temporarily alleviate the economic crisis; However, the risk of financial crisis, will be transferred to the insurance company or bank sale (CDS) insurance if the insurance company or bank solvency problems, they will detonate another category of financial crisis.

與此同時,為了幫助希臘減低負債,歐元區財長們,同意將未來5年,向希臘政府發放的救助貸款利率,降低了0.5個百分點;5年之後的貸款利率,繼續降低1.5個百分點。
這些舉措,將會令到希臘政府的還款負擔,減少14億歐元,並使希臘政府在2020年的債務水平,降低2.2個百分點。

At the same time, in order to reduce gearing to help Greece, the euro zone finance ministers agreed the next five years, issued to the Greek government rescue loan rates, lower by 0.5 percentage points; five years after the loan rates continue to reduce by 1.5 percentage points.
These initiatives will make to the Greek government’s debt service burden, a reduction of 1.4 billion euros, and the Greek government debt levels in 2020, 2.2 percentage points lower.

此外,歐元區各個會員國家,一致同意,讓歐元區各國中央銀行,將所擁有的希臘國債,直到2020年所產生的全部收益,全部交回給希臘政府。
這些利息的收益,預計將幫助希臘政府,減少18億歐元的負擔。
最後,2020年希臘債務佔(GDP)比例,降低1.8個百分點。

In addition, each member of the euro area countries, agreed to, the euro area national central banks, the Greek government bonds have the full benefits until 2020 years, all handed back to the Greek government.
In interest income is expected to help the Greek government, to reduce the burden of 1.8 billion euros.
Finally, in 2020, the Greek debt accounts (GDP) ratio, lower by 1.8 percentage points.
The troika of the European financial

(十一) 希臘政府對歐洲金融三頭馬車或會難於信守承諾?
(11)The Greek government on the troika of the European finance may be difficult to keep its promise?

有金融專家認為:希臘政府,即使暫時擺脫了債務違約的命運,國家未來的前景,仍不容樂觀。
對希臘政府來說,真正的考驗,將會在2012年3月至6月便會出現。屆時,希臘政府,為了獲得金錢援助,國會便會陸續通過,嚴苛的緊縮措施。
由於希臘的經濟,已經連續第四年,陷入衰退;國家的出口工業,競爭能力,不斷往下走低;另外,國內民眾,對政府強硬實施,經濟緊縮政策,發出強烈反對的聲音;加上混亂不堪的國內政治局面,希臘債券違約的長期風險,依然不容低估。

Some financial experts believe: that the Greek government, even temporarily get rid of the fate of debt default, the country’s future prospects, is still not optimistic.

For the Greek government, the real test will be in March 2012 to June there will be. By then, the Greek government, in order to obtain financial assistance Congress will gradually pass through the harsh austerity measures.

Greece’s economy has been the fourth consecutive year in recession; the country’s export industries, competitiveness, constantly falling down; In addition, the domestic public, tough implementation of the government, economic austerity policies, issued a strong opposition voice; coupled with confusion state of the domestic political situation, the long-term risk of default by the Greek bonds, and still not be underestimated.
The troika of the European financial seems to have been exhausted?

歐洲金融三頭馬車,看來已經筋疲力盡?

希臘政府,為了換取第二次的金錢援助,曾經向歐洲金融三頭馬車,保證繼續留在歐元區,於是,被迫做出財政緊縮的承諾,實際上,希臘政府才是「被緊縮」者;至於希臘政府,在未來的日子裏,是否能夠實踐這些承諾,仍然是未知數?

The Greek government, in exchange for financial assistance to have the troika of the European financial pledge to continue to stay in the euro area, therefore, forced to make the commitment to fiscal austerity, in fact, the Greek government is the “crunch"; as for the Greek government in the coming days, whether the practice of these commitments is still unknown?

筆者覺得:對於歐盟提出的條件,希臘政府是硬著頭皮接受的,希臘政府執政當局與國內反對派之間,肯定也經歷了反覆的討價還價和互相妥協。

I think: that the terms and conditions proposed by the European Union, the Greek government to bite the bullet and accept the Greek government between the ruling authorities and the domestic opposition, certainly also experienced repeated bargaining and compromise.

當國內政治局勢緩和後,希臘執政當局,會否繼續執行已經作出的承諾,以及,是否會恢復希臘人民原有的福利,都有可能是,希臘執政當局與反對派系,雙方談判的核心問題。

After the easing of the domestic political situation in Greece, the ruling authorities will continue to implement the commitments already made, and whether it will restore the original welfare of the Greek people, there may be, the Greek authorities in power system, the core issue of negotiations with the opposition.

希臘始於2008年的經濟衰退,已經進入第五個年頭;2011年經濟萎縮6.8%,預期今年經濟還將萎縮4%-5%,目前希臘國內失業率超過20%,青年失業率接近50%;眾多企業,紛紛倒閉,商業經營,景況慘澹。

Greece began in 2008, the recession has entered its fifth year; economy shrank by 6.8 percent in 2011, expects the economy will shrink by 4% -5%, Greece’s unemployment rate over 20%, youth unemployment is nearly 50%; many enterprises have been closed down business operations situation is bleak.

筆者認為:歐盟的援助,解決不了根本問題,希臘的景況,現在只是走一步,看一步,根本問題,始終解決不了。
目前,希臘國內的財政收支不平衡問題、經濟步伐沒有增長、全民邁向失業、國民收入不斷下降等問題,全部都沒有解決之道。

At present, the Greek domestic fiscal imbalances, the pace of the economy is not growing, all the people towards unemployment, national income is declining and other issues, all without solution.

希臘政府,若要從根本上解決財政問題,首先需要使實體經濟得到增長;通過稅收的增加,來實現財政平衡。經濟情況,在沒有實際增長的情況下,僅憑通過不斷縮小財政規模,是沒有出路的。財政緊縮會讓國內消費需求進一步萎縮,振興經濟無從談起。

Greek government to fundamentally solve the financial problems first need to make the real economy growth; to achieve fiscal balance through tax increases. Economic situation, in case there is no real growth alone is shrinking of the financial scale, there is no way out. Fiscal austerity will make domestic consumer demand to shrink further revitalize the economy out of the question.

歐盟的救援,只是從技術層面上延緩債務,主觀願望只是讓希臘政府,暫時不會破產,好讓歐洲的銀行業,繼續在泥漿中胡混求存;但是,並不能從根本上解決問題,希臘的債務,將會長期化下去。

The rescue of the European Union, but to delay debt from a technical level, subjective desire is only the Greek government, not going bankrupt, so that the European banking industry to continue to survive in the mud in the profligates; however, does not fundamentally solve the problem. Greece’s debt will go on a long-term.

(十二)13-2-2012英國《金融時報》沃爾夫岡•明肖(Wolfgang Munched)認為:
(12) 13-2-2012 British “Financial Times" Wolfgang Munched Comments:
1當希臘債務與國內生產總值之比達到60%,希臘政府才能夠擺脫危機。
2希臘政府與葡萄牙領袖,管理金融危機的經驗不足夠,又自以為是。

1 When the Greek debt, the ratio of the gross domestic product (GDP) reached 60%, the Greek government to be able to overcome the crisis.
2 Greek Government and the Portuguese leader to manage the financial crisis is not enough experience and self-righteous.

沃爾夫岡•明肖說:最理想的安排是,讓希臘與葡萄牙這兩個國家,在歐元區內違約。把用來拯救兩個國家的資金,協助這兩個國家,自行重建,同時,也可以保護其他成員國家,避免受到拖累。

Wolfgang Munched said: The best arrangement is to allow the two countries, Greece and Portugal, in default within the euro zone. Used the funds to rescue the two countries, to assist these countries in their own reconstruction, but also to protect other member countries, to avoid being dragged down.

沃爾夫岡•明肖指出,希臘與葡萄牙的問題在於:
1、缺乏管理金融危機的經驗;但是,又沒有諮詢有經驗的專家。
2、傲慢,自以為是。
3、希臘與葡萄牙的領袖,竟然會相信:希臘的「自願性,私人債權人參與削減債務計劃」(PSI)會對削減債務有很大幫助。

Wolfgang Munched pointed out that the problem is that of Greece and Portugal:
1 The leaders of Greece and Portugal, the lack of management experience in the financial crisis; however, without consulting experts with experience.
2 The leaders of Greece and Portugal: not only arrogant, but self-righteous.
3 The leaders of Greece and Portugal went so far as to believe: the Greek “voluntary, private creditor participation in debt reduction plan" (PSI) will reduce its debt of great help.

(十三)“歐洲金融三頭馬車”(歐盟委員會、歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織)的目標是:

(13)"The troika of the European financial “(European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)) is:

希臘債務重組的規模,必須足夠龐大,能夠將希臘的債務,佔據國內生產總值的比重,在2020年時,降低到120%。

The size of the Greek debt restructuring, must be large enough, the Greek debt, occupy the proportion of gross domestic product in 2020, reduced to 120%.

如果希臘政府希望實現,“債務可持續性”目標,私人債權人,參與希臘債務重組的百分率,必須足夠的高,而且,以舊債換新債券的利率要足夠的低。

If the Greek government wants to achieve, “debt sustainability" target, private creditors to participate in the percentage of the debt restructuring of Greece, must be sufficiently high, and that the old debts of a new bond interest rates are low enough.

更為重要的安排是:“自願”的標籤,將會被貼在這份「私人債權人,自願性參與削減債務計劃」的協議上,因為有了這樣的說明,就不會觸發希臘信用違約掉期的信用事件。

The more important arrangements: the “voluntary" label, will be posted on this “private creditors, voluntary participation in the debt reduction plan," the agreement, because with such a description, it will not trigger the Greek credit default swaps of credit events.

(十四)2012年3月20日,希臘政府,將會有總計144億歐元的債務,到達歸還日期,希臘政府目前沒有資金支付。如果PSI可以在到期日之前完成,那麼希臘政府便可以鬆一口氣。因為,144億歐元的債務,將會削減成72.5億歐元。並且,這些債款,可以在很多、很多年以後才到期償還。

(14)March 20, 2012, the Greek government will have a total of 14.4 billion euros of debt, reach the return date, the Greek government is currently no funds to pay. The Greek government will be able to breathe a sigh of relief if PSI can be completed before the due date.14.4 billion euros of debt will be cut into 72.5 billion euros. And these debts can be many, many years’ later, due for repayment.

如果“自願”PSI不能達成結果,那麼,希臘政府,將會被迫實施,強制執行債務重組。例如:在債券條款中加入“集體行動條款”(CAC),限制少數人,都能夠阻止PSI計畫的進行。假如這種情況出現的話,也意味著,歐洲中央銀行的資產負債表,與歐元區會員國家的雙邊貸款,將會受到重大打擊。

If the “voluntary" PSI cannot reach the result, then, the Greek government will be forced to implement, enforce the debt restructuring. For example: In terms of the bond to join the “collective action clauses (CAC) to limit a few people are able to prevent the PSI plan. If this happens, then, also means that the European Central Bank’s balance sheet, and bilateral loans of euro area member countries, will be a major blow.

根據一名希臘財政官員透露:希臘政府,希望最低限度會有66%的民間債權人,會同意參加債務互換計劃。

According to the Greek Ministry of Finance officials said: The Greek government hopes that at least 66 percent of the private creditors and willing to participate in the debt swap scheme.

根據獲得歐元區財政部長通過的,希臘民間債權人參與債務重組(PSI)協議,這次債務互換,目標在於減免1070億歐元的希臘債務負擔。民間債權人被削減債款的幅度,最低限度會達到總債款的53.5%。

According to the euro zone finance ministers, adopted by the Greek private creditors in debt restructuring (PSI) agreement, the debt swap, the goal is relief of 107 billion euros of Greek debt burden. Private creditors to reduce the magnitude of the debt, at least will reach 53.5% of the total debt.

而且,新發行的債券期限,由11年到30年不等。在債務互換計劃中,每100歐元的債券,將換得面值31.5歐元的新發行希臘債券及由(EFSF)發行面值只有15歐元的短期票據。
希臘財長Evangels Venizelos表示:希臘政府已經訂立互換債券的細節。

Moreover, the new bonds issued for a period ranging from 11 years to 30 years. Every 100 euros of bonds in the debt swap scheme, in exchange for short-term notes issued nominal value of 31.5 euros each new issue of Greek bonds and (EFSF) is only 15 euros. The Evangels Venizelos, Greek Finance Minister: The Greek government has entered into swap details of the bonds.

希臘政府同時也發佈一項聲明:希臘財政部承認,削債法規內容將會包括,所謂的集體行動條款(CAC),聲明指出,如果有多達66%的民間債權人,同意新舊債券互相交換計劃,集體行動條款(CAC)條款,將會迫使,所有拒絕債務互換的持債人,強迫接受債券互換。

The Greek government also issued a statement: Greek Ministry of Finance admitted that the cut debt regulations will include the so-called collective action clauses (CAC), said in a statement, if there are up to 66% of private creditors agreed to the new and old bonds exchange plan, the terms of the collective action clauses (CAC), will force all refused to holders of debt swap debt, forced to accept the bond swap.

(十五)民間債權人,參與希臘債務互換的結果及對CDS的影響:

(15)Private creditors to participate in the Greek debt swap results and impact on the CDS:

(1)假設有90%債權人參與債務互換:
1希臘政府的對策:希臘政府會進行債務互換,但是,不會動用CAC。

2互換債券計劃能夠成功的可能性:如果希臘政府不動用(CAC),不可能會有90%的參與比率。因為,其中至少有一種已經發行的債券,要完全重新組合(沒有不參與者)。

3如果希臘政府不動用(CAC),債券互換,觸發危機的類型:由於重組某種債券的可能性很高,可能出現(CDS)信用違約的事件。

(1)Suppose there are 90% participation of creditors in the debt swap:
A. Greek government countermeasures: The Greek government debt swap, but will not use the CAC.

B. Swap the bond program to the likelihood of success: If the Greek government not to use the (CAC), it is impossible there will be 90% participation rate. Because, of which at least an already issued bonds, to be completely reassembled (no participants).

C. If the Greek government not to use the (CAC), bond swaps, trigger the type of crisis: a high possibility of the reorganization of some bonds may occur (CDS), credit default event.

(2)假設沒有90%債權人參與債務互換:
(2) Assuming no 90% participation of creditors in the debt swap:

a希臘政府的對策:希臘政府會強制進行動用(CAC)條款,進行債務互換計劃。

b希臘政府,能夠成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)信用違約事件的影響:希臘政府動用CAC重組債券,可能會到受希臘國內法例規管。因此,不能完全排除觸發信用違約事件。

c如果希臘政府動用(CAC)條款,進行債券互換,觸發危機的類型:如果強制把依據希臘國內法例規定發出的債券,進行重新組合,債券重新組合後,很有可能會出現信用違約事件。

A. Greek government countermeasures: the government will force the use of (CAC) provisions for debt swap scheme.

B. Greek government to successfully carry out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), credit default event: the Greek government to use CAC restructuring bonds may be regulated by the Greek domestic legislation. Therefore, the Greek government cannot completely rule out the possibility to trigger a credit event.

C. If the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), the bond exchange, the type that triggered the crisis: If the government forced the bonds issued in accordance with Greek law to regroup after the re-combination of the bonds, it is likely there will be a credit event.

(3)只有75%民間債權人參與的債務互換及強制執行(CAC)條款:

a希臘政府的對策:希臘政府承認並沒有認真討論過這種情況,但是,但是,不會排除動用CAC條款,進行債務互換。
b希臘政府成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)違約的影響:希臘政府動用(CAC)條款,重新組合受到希臘國內法例規管的債券,可能觸發(CDS)信用違約。
c如果希臘政府動用(CAC)條款,進行債券互換,觸發危機的類型:如果強制把依據希臘國內法例規定發出的債券,進行重新組合,債券重新組合後,很有可能會出現信用違約事件。

(3)Only 75% of private creditors in debt swap and enforce the terms of the (CAC):
A Countermeasures: the Greek government of the Greek government to recognize and there is no serious discussion of this case, but, however, does not rule out the use of CAC terms of the debt swap.

B The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), breach of contract: the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), and reassembled by the Greek domestic legislation to regulate the bonds, may trigger the credit default (CDS).

C If the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), the bond exchange, and the type that triggered the crisis: If the government forced the bonds issued in accordance with Greek law to re-combination, most likely there will be credit event.

(4)只有少於75%民間債權人參與的債務互換及可能不強制執行(CAC)條款:
(4)Only less than 75% of private creditors to participate in the debt swap and may not enforce the terms of the (CAC):

a希臘政府的對策:希臘政府可能進行自願性質的無限定債務互換,可能不會動用(CAC)條款。
b希臘政府成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)違約的影響:希臘政府可能會進行資源的無限定債務互換。希臘政府預料:所有發行的債券,最後有可能,都有不參與者。希臘政府可能償付債款給不參與債券互換者。
c觸發危機的類型:沒有進行完全重新組合,某種類別債券的計劃,所以不清楚是否觸發(CDS)信用違約:希臘政府認為:如果要償付沒有參與換債計劃者,也可能會發生無法償還貸款的信用違約事件。

A. The Greek government’s responses: the Greek government may be an indefinite voluntary debt swap may not spend the terms of the (CAC).
B. The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt and breach of contract (CDS): The Greek government resources may be an indefinite debt swap. The Greek government is expected to: All bonds issued, and finally there may be, there are not participants. The Greek government may pay the debt to not participate in bond swaps.
C. Trigger the type of crisis: There is no completely reassembled, the plan of certain types of bonds, so do not know whether to trigger credit default (CDS): Greek Government considers that: If you want to pay no participation-for-debt plan, may also occur and cannot repay loans the credit event.

(5)希臘政府成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)違約的影響:
a希臘政府,有可能會進行由政府提供資源補償的債務互換。希臘政府預料:所有發行的債券,最後有可能,都有不參與者。希臘政府可能償付債款給不參與債券互換者。
b觸發危機的類型:希臘政府,沒有進行債券完全重新組合計劃,某種類別債券的計劃,政府不會清楚,會否觸發(CDS)信用違約。
c希臘政府認為:政府如果要償付沒有參與換債計劃者,也可能會發生,無法償還貸款的信用違約事件。

(5)The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), breach of contract:
A. Greek government may carry out the debt swap by the government to provide resources for compensation. The Greek government is expected to: All bonds issued, and finally there may be, there are not participants. The Greek government may pay the debt to not participate in bond swaps.
B. Type that triggered the crisis: the Greek Government, without the bond completely reassembled plan, the plan of certain types of bonds, the Government will not clear whether it will trigger the credit default (CDS).
C. The Greek government: if the Government wants to pay did not participate in the for-debt plan, may also occur and cannot repay the loan credit event.

(6)民間債權人參與率不足70%的債務互換計劃及(CAC)條款即時生效:
a由換債協議觸發的金融危機:沒有了(PSI)和債務互換協議。
b換債成功的可能性及對CDS的影響:不可能出現觸發(CDS)違約的重新組合。但是,大批2012年3月20的到期債券,存在無法償付的風險。
c觸發危機的類型:希臘政府無法償付2012年3月20的到期債券。

(6)Private creditors to participate in the rate of less than 70% of the debt swap plan (CAC) provisions with immediate effect:
A. The financial crisis triggered by the exchange of debt agreement: There is no debt swap agreement.
B. Convertible debt and the possibility of default (CDS): cannot trigger the re-combination (CDS), breach of contract. However, a large number of March 20, 2012 maturity bonds, there is the risk of unpayable.
C. Trigger the type of crisis: the Greek Government is unable to pay the 20 March 2012 maturity bonds.

親愛的讀者們:您覺得希臘政府:能夠成功以舊債置換新債嗎?
Dear Readers: Do you think the Greek government: be able to successfully exchange of new debt to old debts?

(十六)根據希臘債券民間債權人代表,國際金融協會( I.I.F.)主席達拉勒(Charles Dollars)表示:希臘政府將會在2012年03月12日成功與民間債權人,進行債務互換計劃,但是,有報道指出:仍然有部份債主,未有意願參與換債計劃,最終或會觸發(CDS)賠償事件。

(16)According to the Greek bonds, private creditors on behalf of the President of the Institute of International Finance, According to the Greek bonds, private creditors on behalf of the President of the Institute of International Finance, said: The Greek government will be March 12, 2012, to reach an agreement with private creditors, the debt swap scheme. However, it has been reported: there are still some lenders not willing to participate-for-debt plan, and ultimately may trigger compensation in the event of (CDS). Charles Dollars said: The Greek government will be March 12, 2012, to reach an agreement with private creditors, the debt swap scheme. However, it has been reported: there are still some lenders not willing to participate-for-debt plan, and ultimately may trigger compensation in the event of (CDS).

但是,達拉勒表示:對希臘換債過程順利,感到樂觀,達拉勒預料,民間債權人的參與比率,將會「頗高」;達拉勒又指出:(CDS)違約的賠償問題,不會影響到換債的過程。

However, Charles Dollars: Greece-for-debt process smoothly, and are optimistic, Charles Dollars expected, the participation rate of the private creditors will be “high"; Charles Dollars also pointed out that: (CDS), breach of the issue of compensation, not will affect the process of changing debt.

儘管如此,英國《每日電訊報》報道,由於參與換債的債權人比率,沒有達到90%,希臘政府正在考慮強制執行「集體行動條款」( CAC),用來逼使民間債權人參與換債計劃。

Nevertheless, the British “The Daily Telegraph" reported that due to the creditors involved in the exchange of debt ratio did not reach 90%, the Greek government is considering the enforcement of collective action clauses (CAC), is used to force private creditors to participate in the convertible debt plan.

希臘政府表示,只會在有 90%以上債權人同意的情況下,才會展開換債行動。

如果參與換債人數比率,沒有達到 90%,但是,人數仍然多於 75%時,希臘政府將會與民間債權人進行談判。如果一切順利,歐盟領袖將會向希臘政府,發放第二次的緊急貸款。

The Greek government said that the only action in more than 90% of creditors have agreed to the situation will only change the debt.
If the debt proportion of people involved in change, did not reach 90%, however, remained more than 75%, the Greek government will work with the private creditors to negotiate. If all goes well, the EU leaders will be to the Greek government issued a second emergency loan.

(十七)筆者對外匯市場的認識:
日本貨幣短線的目標在:94.9
(17)Author on the foreign exchange market:
Japanese currency short-term goal: 94.9

美元兌日元匯價,成功突破81.67高位之後,曾經到達81.86水平,直逼82.00的心理關口。
U.S. dollar against the yen, after a successful break through the 81.67 high, has reached the 81.86 level, almost equal to 82.00 of the psychological barrier.

美元兌日本圓的技術指標,已經到達100個星期(SMA)的82.18關鍵阻力位。
美元兌日元匯價:在於2012年3月2日以81.78水平收市。再一次以接近整個星期內的最高點收市,並且更在周線圖上,呈現連續4個星期,向上攀升的形態。
美元兌日本圓匯價,成功突破81.67高位之後,曾一度達到81.86水平,直逼82.00的心理關口。

The technical specifications of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency have reached 82.18 key resistance levels of 100 weeks (SMA).
U.S. dollar against Japanese currency: March 2, 2012 to the close of the 81.78 level.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar was once again close to the highest point of closing throughout the week, and on the weekly chart, showing the four weeks in a row, the shape-up.
U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency exchange rate in Japan, successfully break through the 81.67 high, has once reached the 81.86 level, almost equal to 82.00 of the psychological barrier.

如果,這一個星期,即(2012-03-05至2012-03-09),美元兌日圓匯價,可以順利向上升,並且,再一次成功在高點位置區收市。由於匯價區,是自從2007年8月以來,首次返回100個星期(SMA)區間內收市,故此,在技術分析層面上,有重大意義。同時,反映美元兌日圓匯價,自從2007年以來的大弱勢,已經正式暫告一段落。

One week (2012-03-05 to 2012-03-09), the U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate can be smoothly to rise, and again in the location area of the high point of closing. Because the exchange rate area is back to 100 weeks (SMA) for the first time since August 2007, the closing range, therefore, the level of technical analysis, there is great significance. At the same time, reflecting the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, since the big weakness since 2007, has officially ended.

美元兌日圓的匯價,從今往後,6個月內,絕對不適宜掉以輕心,因為美元兌日本圓的匯價,有可能會在毫無癥兆下,呈現急劇上升或下降的局面。至於,進入匯市策略,應該繼續跟隨順勢,買入美元兌日圓為主。
筆者的目標:匯價會朝着2010年的94.98高位,逐漸向上邁進。

U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate, six months from now on, should by no means be taken lightly, because the U.S. dollar against the Japanese Yuan currency exchange rate may under no signs, showing a sharp rise or fall situation. As to enter the foreign exchange market strategy, should continue to follow homeopathy, the buying of the dollar against the yen.
The author’s goal: the exchange rate will move toward the 94.98 high in 2010, gradually moving up.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。
My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

(Chapter 23)Greek old debts replacement of new debt, arbitration of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) will not trigger credit default swaps?


(Chapter 23)希臘舊債置換新債,經過國際掉期及衍生工具協會(ISDA)仲裁,不會觸發(CD S)信貸違約掉期?

國際掉期及衍生工具協會(ISDA)解說:
International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) Commentary:

ISDA 國際掉期及衍生工具協會是一個大型全球貿易組織,其成員是進行衍生產品私下交易和場外交易的公司。它負責制定ISDA的主協定,即衍生品的標準化合同。

International Swaps and Derivatives Association is a large global trade organization of companies who trade in private and over-the-counter derivatives. It was responsible for the creation of the ISDA master agreement, a standardized contract for trading in derivatives.

(一) 國際掉期及衍生工具協會(ISDA)經過冗長會議後宣佈:由15間大型銀行及對沖基金組成的委員會,一致裁定:希臘新債置換舊債的計劃,不會觸發信貸違約掉期(CDS)。

(1)of the International Swaps and derivatives Association (ISDA) announced after lengthy meetings: a committee composed of 15 large banks and hedge funds, by a unanimous decision: the plans of the replacement of old debts of the Greek new debt will not trigger the credit default swaps(CDS).

但是,這一次的裁定,並沒有處理,希臘政府有可能加入的「集體行動條款」(CAC)。所以,觸發希臘信貸違約掉期(CDS)的風險,仍然會存在。

However, this time the ruling did not deal with the Greek government may join the “collective action clauses (CAC). Therefore, the trigger of Greece, the risk of credit default swaps (CDS), will still exist.

ISDA收到兩項有關啟動希臘信貸違約掉期(CDS)的申請裁決,包括:

ISDA received two for a ruling related to the start of Greek credit default swaps(CDS), including:

要求ISDA裁決:希臘的削減債務計劃:會令到私人債權人的償債優先排序,排列位置會後於歐洲中央銀行,私人債權人覺得並不合理。

requires ISDA ruling: Greece’s debt reduction plan: will lead to private creditors, the debt service prioritization, alignment after the European Central Bank, the private creditors think that is unreasonable.

(二) 希臘政府與私人債權人達成的協議,會構成信貸違約掉期(CDS)。

(2) the Greek government reached agreement with private creditors, would constitute a credit default swap (CDS).

但是,SDA一致裁定,兩項申請裁決結果,都是無效。
ISDA認為:上述兩項投訴,都不會構成「信貸事件違約」,所以,希臘國債中,淨值32.5億美元的信貸違約掉期,將不需要作出賠償。

However, the SDA unanimously ruled that the two applications, the result of the ruling, are invalid.
ISDA: The above two complaints would not constitute a credit event of default , Greek government bonds, net of $ 3.25 billion in credit default swaps, will not be required to pay compensation.

不過,ISDA仍然有一項保留條款,該會繼續指出:希臘的情況,還會繼續發展下去,目前的決定,並不會影響私人債權人,日後再次要求,申請啟動希臘債務違約的仲裁機會(CDS)。

However, the ISDA remains a saving clause. ISDA continues: the case of Greece will continue to develop. ISDA’s decision does not affect the private creditors, future requirements; apply for arbitration opportunity to start the Greek debt default.

金融市場的投資者估計,由於參與置換新債的私人債權人,自動參與削減債務的人數,絕對不會達到90%以上,希臘政府,最終或要引入,以及動用「集體行動條款」,強制債權人置換新債,才能令到削減債項計劃,能夠順利進行。

Investors in the financial market is estimated that involved in replacement of new debt to private creditors, and automatically participate in a number of debt reduction, will never reach more than 90%, the Greek government, and ultimately to introduce, as well as the use of " collective action clauses “to force the creditors replacement new debt in order to reduce the debt plan can proceed smoothly.

但根據ISDA的規則,假設ISDA動用「集體行動條款」,會被金融市場投資者視為:希臘政府,實際上已經違約。

However, according to the rules of the ISDA, assuming that the ISDA utilized the “collective action clauses", financial markets and investors will be considered: the Greek government has actually to breach of contract.

ISDA委員會的成員,包括15名投票委員;成員包括高盛、摩根大通及德銀等。ISDA設有兩名顧問委員,ISDA裁決過程,經常被投資者批評,欠缺透明度;因為,每一次ISDA作出的裁決,都毋須解釋裁決的理由。投資者,亦不能上訴,金融界的人士,曾經屢次指出:裁決制度,容易造成利益衝突。

ISDA members of the Committee, including 15 voting members; members include Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank, the ISDA has two advisory committee, the ISDA award process, investors are often criticized the lack of transparency; every ISDA made rulings are not required to explain the reasons for the award. Investors cannot be appealed, the financial sector, has repeatedly pointed out: the ruling system, likely to cause a conflict of interest.

(三)希臘的「私人債權人,自願性參與削減債務計劃」(PSI)的解說:

(3)of the Greek “private creditors voluntary participation to reduce debt plan" (PSI) explanation:

PSI計畫的利益相關者,大致可以分為六個組別:

1歐元區核心國家Euro area core countries

2歐元區會員國家Euro area member states

3歐洲中央銀行European Central Bank

4國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)International Monetary Fund (IMF)

5希臘民間債權人Greece’s private creditors

6希臘政府Greek government

由於希臘國債,涉及利益的機構很多,包括:整個歐洲乃至全球的金融組織,這些機構或組織,彼此之間,正在編織一張龐大的“博弈網絡”。在這個多邊博弈網絡中,很可能會交替出現結果,而且每一次的結果,都將成為希臘的「生死時刻」。

Greek government bonds, involving the interests of the institution, include: the whole of Europe and the global financial organizations, institutions or organizations, with each other, are weaving a huge game network. In the multilateral game network, it may be alternating results, and the results will become the “life and death moment" in Greece.

儘管,歐洲中央銀行在希臘國債,擔當的角色與其他會員國家,官方債權人擔當的角色,目前還未能確立彼此之間的定位。但是,希臘政府與私人債權人之間的談判,正在進入白熱化階段,預計很快將會有結果。

Although the European Central Bank in the Greek government bonds and the role of other member countries, the role of official creditors, yet failed to establish their positioning. However, negotiations between the Greek Government and private creditors, is heating up, the expected results will soon be.

(四)希臘政府進行削減債務的過程中,可能會採取「集體行動條款」或同意退出條款(CAC)解說:

(4) The Greek government debt reduction process may take collective action clauses “or to agree to withdraw clauses (CAC) explanation:

惠譽評級機構,把希臘主權債務評級,下調至「最垃圾級別」,或許會引發金融市場出現恐慌。

Fitch rating agency, Greece’s sovereign debt rating lowered to “the most junk," may lead to financial markets panic.

2012年2月22日,歐元區的領袖,達成了幫助希臘政府,紓緩財政困難的協定之後,評級機構惠譽即時將希臘的違約評級(IDR),由CCC級下調至C級。

February 22, 2012, leaders of the euro area reached to help the Greek government to ease the financial difficulties the agreement, the rating agency Fitch immediately Greece Default Rating (IDR) down to the C-class level by the CCC.

「C等評級」是惠譽評級系統中,列入垃圾級別的第11級,也就是說:列入了「最垃圾級別」。
惠譽稱,希臘的「C等評級」,說明:希臘近期之內,極有可能發生違約行為。
假若債務互換計劃,能夠順利完成後:希臘債券發行人的違約評級,將會下調至「有限度違約」。

“C rating" is Fitch’s rating system, included in the spam level 11, that is: The inclusion of the “junk".
Fitch said the Greek “C rating" Description: Greece within the near future, most likely the case of default.
If the debt swap scheme, after the successful completion of: Greek bond issuer default rating will be reduced to “limited breach “.

惠譽的降級措施,並未讓金融市場,感到意外。分析師們認為,短期內,希臘還需要滿足多項條件,才能獲得第二輪貸款;而民間債權人參與(PSI),將導致觸發CDS違約的可能性增加。在長時間內,希臘還須要面臨:經濟增長緩慢的擔憂。

Fitch’s downgrade of measures and does not let the financial markets by surprise. Analysts believe that the short term, Greece also need to meet a number of conditions in order to obtain a second round of the loan; and private creditors to participate in (PSI), will lead to increased likelihood of defaults trigger CDS. Long period of time, Greece also needs to face: slow economic growth worries.

(五)希臘政府在近期內,很可能會違約?

(5)Greek government in the near future, it may be breach of contract?

希臘政府與私人部門債權人,在PSI互換方面已經達成了基本共識。包括:在會計帳務上,減記希臘政府債券面值的53.5%。
希臘政府又發出聲明,擴充了債務互換的條件,並且確認:希臘政府有意通過希臘法律,將會在債券互換協定中,引入「集體行動條款」(Collective Action Clauses,簡稱CACs).

The Greek government and the private sector creditors have reached a basic consensus in the PSI swap. Include: reduction of 53.5% of the nominal value of the Greek government bond market accounting.
The Greek government issued a statement: expansion of the debt swaps conditions, and confirmed: The Greek government intends to Greek law, will be in the bond swap agreements, the introduction of collective action clauses “(Collective, Action Clauses referred to CACs).

惠譽在發佈的降級聲明中指出:這一次債券互換計劃完成後,將會構成,符合評級機構標準的「壞債互換」要求,(Distressed Debt Exchange,簡稱DDE)。

Fitch downgrade released a statement that: after the completion of the bond swap plan would constitute" bad debt swap “requirements, in line with the rating agencies Standard (Distressed Debt Exchange, or DDE).

惠譽認為:在債務互換實施後,希臘評級,將被下調至「有限度違約」(Restricted Default,簡稱RD)。
落實新債務互換後,希臘債務主權評級,也將被撤去「有限度違約」的評級,
並會根據「評級機構,對違約後結構和信用狀況,進行的評估」再次獲得評級。

Fitch said: After the implementation of the debt swap, the rating of Greece will be reduced to “limited breach of contract" (the Restricted the Default referred to the RD).
The implementation of the new debt swap, the sovereignty of the Greek debt rating will also be removed the rating of “limited breach of contract"
And again according to the rating agencies, on the structure and credit-default situation, the assessment carried out rating.

惠譽評級機構還表示:受此次債務互換影響的希臘國債,包括:那些儘管沒有被償付,但被納入強制性重組的債券評級,評級將會被下調至D級。

Fitch rating agency also said: Greek government bonds were affected by the impact of debt swap, including: who are currently not being pay, but was included in the mandatory restructuring of bond rating, the rating will be lowered to D-level.

(六)希臘國債投資者,將會被迫接受債務削減的現實?

(6)G reek bond investors will be forced to accept the reality of debt reduction?

根據歐元區財政部長通過的PSI協議,這一次債務互換計劃,目標在於減免1070億歐元的希臘債務負擔,相當於2011年希臘GDP的50%。
根據PSI協議規定:私人債權人被迫削減的債務幅度,高達53.5%。
而且,由希臘政府重新發出債券的贖回期限,會由11年到30年不等。在債務互換協議中,每100歐元面值的舊債券,將會換得面值31.5歐元的新發行希臘債券;及由(EFSF)發行的面值只有15歐元的短期票據。

Accordance with the agreement of the euro zone finance ministers through the PSI, this time debt swap program, the goal is relief for the Greek debt burden of 107 billion euros, equivalent to 50% of the 2011 Greek GDP.
According to the PSI agreement provides that: private creditors were forced to cut the debt margin, up 53.5 percent.
Moreover, by the Greek government re-issued bonds of the redemption period, ranging from 11 to 30 years. Per € 100 face value of old bonds in the debt swap agreement, will be in exchange for 31.5 euros each new issue of Greek bonds; short-term notes issued by the (EFSF) the nominal value of € 15.

希臘財政部長維尼澤洛斯(Evangels Venizelos)於2012年2月21日表示,希臘政府會立刻進行立法,訂出互換債券的細節。
希臘政府進一步發佈一項聲明稱:由希臘政府訂出置換債券的法規,將會包括所謂的集體行動條款(CAC),即是:如果獲得多數持債人同意,執行互換計劃,這一條款,將會迫使:所有拒絕債務互換的持債人,都必須接受互換。

Greek Finance Minister Evangels Venizelos on February 21, 2012, the Greek government immediately legislates to set out the details of the swap bonds.
The Greek government further issued a statement saying: replacement bonds and regulations set by the Greek government, including the so-called collective action clauses (CAC), that is: if the majority held the consent of the Lenders, the implementation of the swap plan, this provision will force: all refused to debt swaps, debt holders, must accept the swap.

(七)金融市場,對希臘政府,能否落實,執行換債協議,依然持有質疑的態度?
其實,惠譽對希臘國債評級的降級,也反映了金融市場,對希臘的經濟前景,依然持有質疑態度。
從短期來看,這一份所謂已經達成的協議,還是須要獲得,部分歐元區會員國家議會的批准,這一個環節,其實已經存在了,削減希臘債務的協議,能不能落實執行的不確定因素。

(7)Financial markets, the Greek government can implement execution-for-debt agreement, still holds a questioning attitude?
In fact, the Fitch downgrade of Greece’s debt rating also reflects the financial markets, the economic prospects of the Greek, still holds a questioning attitude.
The short term, a so-called agreements already reached, or need to obtain parliamentary approval of part of the Eurozone member states, this one procedure, in fact, already exists whether to cut Greek debt agreement, can implementation, there have been uncertainties.

因為,為確保希臘獲得第二批救助款,希臘還需要滿足,「歐洲金融三頭馬車」訂下的三個條件:

Because, to ensure that the Greek government for the second batch of bailout loans, Greece also needs to meet the three conditions laid down by the troika of the European financial:

a首先,在本月底歐元區各個會員國政府或(IMF)在新方案上簽字之前,希臘必須滿足24項「前期行動」的要求,才有希望獲得新二輪貸款援助。這些要求包括:解僱表現欠佳的收稅員;通過法律,將一些壟斷性行業,進行自由化發展;收緊賄賂的規則;2012年6月份前,出售至少兩個國有企業等。

First, prior to the end of this month the euro area the various Governments of Member States or (IMF) signed the new program, Greece must meet the requirements of 24 “early action", there is hope of a new two loan assistance. These requirements include: the dismissal of the poor performance of the taxman; through legal monopoly industries, the liberalization of the development; to tighten the rules of bribery; June 2012, to sell at least two state-owned enterprises.

b其次,希臘政府必須同意國際監督人員更大規模、永久性地駐紮希臘,從而即時監督希臘政府的支出決定。
b Second, the Greek government must agree to large-scale international monitors permanently stationed in Greece, and thus immediate supervision of the Greek government’s spending decisions.

c第三,歐洲金融三頭馬車發放的救助貸款,全數存入一個託管帳戶,希臘政府必須確保,帳戶內的餘額,隨時能夠支付,至少3個月應該償還的債務。不過,這個託管帳戶,將會是臨時性質的,因為,希臘政府已經同意,通過修正憲法,將償付債務欠款,列為財政支出中,最優先處理的項目。

Third, the troika of the European financial rescue loan granted full deposited into an escrow account, the Greek government must ensure that the account balance at any time be able to pay at least three months, the debt should be repaid. However, this escrow account will be temporary in nature, because the Greek government has agreed to amend the constitution, debt arrears as financial expenditure, the top priority project.

(八)此外,高盛進一步指出,希臘目前還存在著,兩個令人擔憂的現實:
a 希臘政府在處理新債置換舊債的過程中,可能會觸發(CDS)的保險賠償追索。
b 希臘經濟增長緩慢,令人擔憂希臘的前景,並不樂觀。

(8)In addition, Goldman Sachs further stated that the Greek government, the existence of two alarming reality:
A Greek government in the process of replacement of old debts of the new debt may trigger (CDS) of compensation recourse.
B Greek economic growth is slow, worrying prospects for Greece, it is very pessimistic.

因為,第一方面,民間債權人:由於須要承受的損失增加,希臘政府,有可能會動用集體行動條款(CAC),強迫債權人接受,新債換舊債的行政措施,並且觸發(CDS)的保險索償風潮。這些都是近期金融市場,不斷發生市況波動的源頭。

第二方面:不受希臘國內人民歡迎的,經濟結構性改革與國家企業私有化,是否能夠繼續推行,尚在未知之數。因為這些舉措,有可能會導致,希臘與其他歐盟成員國,進一步產生摩擦,引發希臘退出歐元區的風險。

Because, first aspect, the private creditors: due to increased need to bear the loss, the Greek government, may be the use of collective action clauses (CAC), to force creditors to accept the administrative measures of the new debt for old debt, and trigger (CDS) insurance claims wave. These are the recent financial market continuing source of market volatility.
The second: is not welcomed by the people of Greece, economic structural reform and privatization of state enterprises, is able to continue to implement, it is still unknown. Because of these initiatives, may result in Greece and other EU member states, further friction, lead to the risk of the Greek out of the euro.

早在惠譽對希臘國債,評定降級之前,希臘政府,已經通過了,目的是為希臘政府,削減接近1000億歐元的,債券置換法案。
希臘政府,立即把這一項具有爭議性條款的法案:包括迫使民間債權人,接受債務削減的方案,提交給了希臘議會。
有知情人士透露,最終債權人的實際削減債款,可能高達75%左右。

As early as before the Fitch assessment downgrade of Greek government bonds, the Greek government has passed, the purpose is to cut close to 100 billion euros, the bond replacement bill for the Greek government.
The Greek government immediately put controversial provisions of the bill: including force private creditors to accept the debt reduction program, and submitted to the Greek Parliament.
Informed sources, the actual reduction of debt of the ultimate creditor, may be as high as 75%.

根據法案內容,希臘政府:將會由議會賦予法定權力,進行大規模更改國債合同的內容,並實施所謂的:集體行動條款(CAC),假如獲得大多數債權人的批准,新債券的所有條款,將適用於所有擁有國債的債權人。

According to the contents of the bill, the Greek government: will by Parliament to give statutory powers to carry out large-scale change the content of the national debt contracts and the implementation of the so-called: collective action clauses (CAC).Subject to the consent of the majority of creditors, all the terms of the new bond will apply to all creditors with government bonds.

不過,從惠譽的衡量角度看來,希臘政府如果獲得議會援權,強制執行,新債置換舊債的舉措,將會構成「強迫性債券置換」的實施,這將會促使惠譽,對希臘國債實施進一步的大幅降級。

However, Fitch measure the point of view, the Greek government for parliamentary empowerment to enforce replacement of old debts of the new debt initiative, will constitute the implementation of the forced bond replacement, this will be prompted Fitch, Greek bonds the implementation of further substantial downgrade.

惠譽表示,在債券置換計畫開始之後,希臘的評級將會被進一步降至「限制性違約」級別,也就是距離徹底「違約」僅有一個級別的差異。

Fitch said the bond replacement program began, the rating of Greece will be further reduced to “restricted default" level, which is the distance completely “default" is only one level of difference.

根據希臘政府官員透露:在正式法案公佈後,民間債權人:必須在兩星期之內,考慮接受或與拒絕;到了2012年3月9日,希臘政府,將會決定:債權人接受減債法案的百份率,是否足以讓方案得以落實推行。如果一切順利,新舊債券置換計劃,將會從2012年3月12日正式開始。

According to the Greek government officials said: after the announcement of the formal bill, private creditors: within two weeks, consider accept or refuse; March 9, 2012, the Greek government will be decided: the creditors accept debt reduction percentage of the bill, is sufficient to allow the program to be implemented. If all goes well, old and new bonds of the replacement plan will be officially began on March 12, 2012.

(九)希臘政府暫時獲得喘息的機會:
希臘政府,在不到兩年的時間內,接受第二次外部的貸款救助。
2010年5月,歐元區各個會員國家的政府和國際貨幣基金組織,同意向希臘政府發放,總額為1100億歐元的第一次救助貸款。
希臘政府,如果無法得到,第二次救助貸款,希臘政府將在2012年3月份,由於無法償還到期的145億歐元國債,便會宣佈債務違約。

(9)The Greek government temporary respite:
The Greek government, within two years, accepted the relief of the secondary external loans.
In May 2010, the Government of the member countries of the euro area and the IMF agreed to the Greek government issued a total of € 110 billion in bailout loans for the first time.
Greek government cannot get a second bailout loans, the Greek government in March 2012, due to inability to pay 14.5 billion euros maturing government bonds, will be announced the debt default.

根據文件顯示:1300億歐元貸款中,其中一小部分,將會被用於2012年3月20日到期的145億歐元債務的償還。(實際金額,經過削減,大約是72.5億歐元);救助貸款的絕大多數金額,將會用於債券互換計劃以及確保希臘銀行體系運轉穩定;另外還有300億,將會用於支付,民間債權人達成還款協議後的資金需求;剩餘的230億歐元,將會替希臘銀行,提供重組資金。

According to the paper: a loan of 130 billion euros, of which a small part, will be used for the repayment of 14.5 billion euros of debt maturing on March 20, 2012.(The actual amount of reduction, about 7.25 billion euros); the vast majority of the rescue loan amount will be used for bond swap plan and to ensure that the Greek banking system functioning and stability; in addition to 30 billion will be used to pay civil creditors to reach agreement for the repayment of capital requirements; the remaining 23 billion euros will be for the Bank of Greece, restructuring funds.

如果歐元區,拒絕伸出援助之手,希臘政府只能陷入財政崩潰,最後只能宣佈無序違約,跟著整個歐洲銀行系統也會遭殃。
在這種情況下,希臘政府極可能會效仿冰島政府的做法,退出歐元區,擺脫統一貨幣的束縛,實行匯率貶值,開放市場,吸引外資進入希臘謀求發展。

If the euro zone, refused to lend a helping hand, the Greek government only turn into a financial collapse, and finally only announced disorderly breach of contract, followed by the entire European banking system will suffer.
In this case, the Greek government will most likely follow the example of the practice of the Government of Iceland, out of the euro, to get rid of the shackles of the single currency, the implementation of exchange rate depreciation, market liberalization to attract foreign investment into Greece to seek development.

假使希臘離開歐元區,將會帶來人們對歐元區,存在意義的質疑。

If Greece leave the euro zone, will bring the euro area, there are significant doubts.

有人覺得:既然歐元區本身的貨幣政策,阻礙了歐元區會員國家債務問題的解決;相反,離開歐元區,並且實行貨幣貶值,如果成為解決債務問題的主要辦法,那麼,其他債務嚴重的國家,在遇到困難時,也可能會選擇同一樣的道路。

Some people think: Since the monetary policy of the euro area itself, hindering the euro member countries debt problems to solve; the contrary, Greece leave the euro zone, and currency depreciation, if this choice, the main way to solve the debt problem, then, other heavily indebted countries in the face of difficulties, but also may choose the same road.

這樣,便會啟動了歐元解體的閘門,歐元區的存在就很危險了。因此,即使希臘礙於國內壓力,最終沒有承諾,採取緊縮措施;歐盟也會毫不猶豫,全力進行援助希臘政府解決財政困難。

Starts the disintegration of the gate of the euro, the existence of the euro area is very dangerous. Therefore, even if Greece is due to domestic pressures, and ultimately there is no commitment to take austerity measures; EU will not hesitate to efforts to aid the Greek government to solve the financial difficulties.

(十)希臘政府的債務重組計劃,仍然存在變數?

(10)Greek government’s debt restructuring plan, there are still variables?

根據希臘政府的債務重組協議的要求,民間債券持有人,對所持規模總計約1300億歐元 (約合1720億美元) 資金,進行幅度為53.5%的債務削減。歐盟的目標是:使得希臘2020年前的債務,佔GDP比例,降低至120.5%的水準。這一次的削減比例,超過了去年10月歐洲聯盟高峰會上,共同達成的50%。

Accordance with the requirements of the debt restructuring agreement with the Greek government, private bondholders, the total held by the scale of about 130 billion euros (about $ 172 billion) of funds to carry out the range of 53.5% debt reduction. EU’s objectives are: to make Greece’s 2020 debt percentage of (GDP) decreased to 120.5% of the standard. This time to cut the proportion of more than the EU summit last October, jointly reached 50%.

同時,民間債權人,還要被迫接受降低債券利率;據悉,首3年的利率是2%,接下來的5年利率是3%,八年後的利率是4.2%。這種利率安排,低於目前金融市場的利率。

Meanwhile, the private creditors, but also forced to accept lower bond interest rates; It is reported that the interest rate is 2% in the first three years of the next five annual interest rate is 3 percent, eight years after the interest rate is 4.2%. Arrangements of the current interest rate significantly lower than the current financial market interest rates.

綜合以上的論述,持有希臘國債的民間債權人,損失淨值將會達到70%-75%。
這些舉措:肯定會引發民間債券持有人的不滿,而且絕對會引起法律糾紛。

Summing up the above discussion held by private creditors of the Greek government bonds, net of losses will reach 70% -75%.
These initiatives: will certainly lead to the dissatisfaction of civil bondholders, and certainly give rise to legal disputes.

筆者覺得:民間債權人,面對兩難的困境:假使自願削減債款,將會蒙受巨大金錢損失;但是,如果不自動進行削減債款,希臘政府便會陷入無序違約;並且,歐洲區內的銀行、保險公司等金融機構,將會為希臘政府的破產,付出更大的金錢代價。

I think: private creditors face a dilemma: if voluntary reduction of debt, will suffer a huge loss of money; If, however, does not automatically cut debt, the Greek government will fall into disorder breach of contract; and the European region banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions, will be the bankruptcy of the Greek government, to pay a higher price in money.

筆者覺得:民間債權人選擇不同意削減債款,主要的原因是:有(CDS)的存在。
因為民間債權人,可以把債款削減造成的損失,有可能被(CDS)對沖和補償。

I think: private creditors choose not to agree to debt reduction, the main reason is: the existence of the (CDS).
Private creditors, the debt to reduce the losses caused, there may be (CDS) hedging and compensation.

但是,這種操作也會存在極大的風險。民間債權人的債款遭受削減後,希臘政府的債務問題,或者暫時可以緩解經濟危機;但是,金融危機的風險,會被轉移到保險公司或那些出售(CDS)保險的銀行,如果保險公司或銀行的償付能力出現問題,又將會引爆另外一類別的金融危機。

However, this debt reduction operations, there will still be at great risk. Private creditors debt suffered cuts, the Greek government’s debt problems, or temporarily alleviate the economic crisis; However, the risk of financial crisis, will be transferred to the insurance company or bank sale (CDS) insurance if the insurance company or bank solvency problems, they will detonate another category of financial crisis.

與此同時,為了幫助希臘減低負債,歐元區財長們,同意將未來5年,向希臘政府發放的救助貸款利率,降低了0.5個百分點;5年之後的貸款利率,繼續降低1.5個百分點。
這些舉措,將會令到希臘政府的還款負擔,減少14億歐元,並使希臘政府在2020年的債務水平,降低2.2個百分點。

At the same time, in order to reduce gearing to help Greece, the euro zone finance ministers agreed the next five years, issued to the Greek government rescue loan rates, lower by 0.5 percentage points; five years after the loan rates continue to reduce by 1.5 percentage points.
These initiatives will make to the Greek government’s debt service burden, a reduction of 1.4 billion euros, and the Greek government debt levels in 2020, 2.2 percentage points lower.

此外,歐元區各個會員國家,一致同意,讓歐元區各國中央銀行,將所擁有的希臘國債,直到2020年所產生的全部收益,全部交回給希臘政府。
這些利息的收益,預計將幫助希臘政府,減少18億歐元的負擔。
最後,2020年希臘債務佔(GDP)比例,降低1.8個百分點。

In addition, each member of the euro area countries, agreed to, the euro area national central banks, the Greek government bonds have the full benefits until 2020 years, all handed back to the Greek government.
In interest income is expected to help the Greek government, to reduce the burden of 1.8 billion euros.
Finally, in 2020, the Greek debt accounts (GDP) ratio, lower by 1.8 percentage points.
The troika of the European financial

(十一) 希臘政府對歐洲金融三頭馬車或會難於信守承諾?
(11)The Greek government on the troika of the European finance may be difficult to keep its promise?

有金融專家認為:希臘政府,即使暫時擺脫了債務違約的命運,國家未來的前景,仍不容樂觀。
對希臘政府來說,真正的考驗,將會在2012年3月至6月便會出現。屆時,希臘政府,為了獲得金錢援助,國會便會陸續通過,嚴苛的緊縮措施。
由於希臘的經濟,已經連續第四年,陷入衰退;國家的出口工業,競爭能力,不斷往下走低;另外,國內民眾,對政府強硬實施,經濟緊縮政策,發出強烈反對的聲音;加上混亂不堪的國內政治局面,希臘債券違約的長期風險,依然不容低估。

Some financial experts believe: that the Greek government, even temporarily get rid of the fate of debt default, the country’s future prospects, is still not optimistic.

For the Greek government, the real test will be in March 2012 to June there will be. By then, the Greek government, in order to obtain financial assistance Congress will gradually pass through the harsh austerity measures.

Greece’s economy has been the fourth consecutive year in recession; the country’s export industries, competitiveness, constantly falling down; In addition, the domestic public, tough implementation of the government, economic austerity policies, issued a strong opposition voice; coupled with confusion state of the domestic political situation, the long-term risk of default by the Greek bonds, and still not be underestimated.
The troika of the European financial seems to have been exhausted?

歐洲金融三頭馬車,看來已經筋疲力盡?

希臘政府,為了換取第二次的金錢援助,曾經向歐洲金融三頭馬車,保證繼續留在歐元區,於是,被迫做出財政緊縮的承諾,實際上,希臘政府才是「被緊縮」者;至於希臘政府,在未來的日子裏,是否能夠實踐這些承諾,仍然是未知數?

The Greek government, in exchange for financial assistance to have the troika of the European financial pledge to continue to stay in the euro area, therefore, forced to make the commitment to fiscal austerity, in fact, the Greek government is the “crunch"; as for the Greek government in the coming days, whether the practice of these commitments is still unknown?

筆者覺得:對於歐盟提出的條件,希臘政府是硬著頭皮接受的,希臘政府執政當局與國內反對派之間,肯定也經歷了反覆的討價還價和互相妥協。

I think: that the terms and conditions proposed by the European Union, the Greek government to bite the bullet and accept the Greek government between the ruling authorities and the domestic opposition, certainly also experienced repeated bargaining and compromise.

當國內政治局勢緩和後,希臘執政當局,會否繼續執行已經作出的承諾,以及,是否會恢復希臘人民原有的福利,都有可能是,希臘執政當局與反對派系,雙方談判的核心問題。

After the easing of the domestic political situation in Greece, the ruling authorities will continue to implement the commitments already made, and whether it will restore the original welfare of the Greek people, there may be, the Greek authorities in power system, the core issue of negotiations with the opposition.

希臘始於2008年的經濟衰退,已經進入第五個年頭;2011年經濟萎縮6.8%,預期今年經濟還將萎縮4%-5%,目前希臘國內失業率超過20%,青年失業率接近50%;眾多企業,紛紛倒閉,商業經營,景況慘澹。

Greece began in 2008, the recession has entered its fifth year; economy shrank by 6.8 percent in 2011, expects the economy will shrink by 4% -5%, Greece’s unemployment rate over 20%, youth unemployment is nearly 50%; many enterprises have been closed down business operations situation is bleak.

筆者認為:歐盟的援助,解決不了根本問題,希臘的景況,現在只是走一步,看一步,根本問題,始終解決不了。
目前,希臘國內的財政收支不平衡問題、經濟步伐沒有增長、全民邁向失業、國民收入不斷下降等問題,全部都沒有解決之道。

At present, the Greek domestic fiscal imbalances, the pace of the economy is not growing, all the people towards unemployment, national income is declining and other issues, all without solution.

希臘政府,若要從根本上解決財政問題,首先需要使實體經濟得到增長;通過稅收的增加,來實現財政平衡。經濟情況,在沒有實際增長的情況下,僅憑通過不斷縮小財政規模,是沒有出路的。財政緊縮會讓國內消費需求進一步萎縮,振興經濟無從談起。

Greek government to fundamentally solve the financial problems first need to make the real economy growth; to achieve fiscal balance through tax increases. Economic situation, in case there is no real growth alone is shrinking of the financial scale, there is no way out. Fiscal austerity will make domestic consumer demand to shrink further revitalize the economy out of the question.

歐盟的救援,只是從技術層面上延緩債務,主觀願望只是讓希臘政府,暫時不會破產,好讓歐洲的銀行業,繼續在泥漿中胡混求存;但是,並不能從根本上解決問題,希臘的債務,將會長期化下去。

The rescue of the European Union, but to delay debt from a technical level, subjective desire is only the Greek government, not going bankrupt, so that the European banking industry to continue to survive in the mud in the profligates; however, does not fundamentally solve the problem. Greece’s debt will go on a long-term.

(十二)13-2-2012英國《金融時報》沃爾夫岡•明肖(Wolfgang Munched)認為:

(12) 13-2-2012 British “Financial Times" Wolfgang Munched Comments:

1當希臘債務與國內生產總值之比達到60%,希臘政府才能夠擺脫危機。
2希臘政府與葡萄牙領袖,管理金融危機的經驗不足夠,又自以為是。

1 When the Greek debt, the ratio of the gross domestic product (GDP) reached 60%, the Greek government to be able to overcome the crisis.
2 Greek Government and the Portuguese leader to manage the financial crisis is not enough experience and self-righteous.

沃爾夫岡•明肖說:最理想的安排是,讓希臘與葡萄牙這兩個國家,在歐元區內違約。把用來拯救兩個國家的資金,協助這兩個國家,自行重建,同時,也可以保護其他成員國家,避免受到拖累。

Wolfgang Munched said: The best arrangement is to allow the two countries, Greece and Portugal, in default within the euro zone. Used the funds to rescue the two countries, to assist these countries in their own reconstruction, but also to protect other member countries, to avoid being dragged down.

沃爾夫岡•明肖指出,希臘與葡萄牙的問題在於:
1、缺乏管理金融危機的經驗;但是,又沒有諮詢有經驗的專家。
2、傲慢,自以為是。
3、希臘與葡萄牙的領袖,竟然會相信:希臘的「自願性,私人債權人參與削減債務計劃」(PSI)會對削減債務有很大幫助。

Wolfgang Munched pointed out that the problem is that of Greece and Portugal:
1 The leaders of Greece and Portugal, the lack of management experience in the financial crisis; however, without consulting experts with experience.
2 The leaders of Greece and Portugal: not only arrogant, but self-righteous.
3 The leaders of Greece and Portugal went so far as to believe: the Greek “voluntary, private creditor participation in debt reduction plan" (PSI) will reduce its debt of great help.

(十三)“歐洲金融三頭馬車”(歐盟委員會、歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織)的目標是:

(13)"The troika of the European financial “(European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)) is:

希臘債務重組的規模,必須足夠龐大,能夠將希臘的債務,佔據國內生產總值的比重,在2020年時,降低到120%。

The size of the Greek debt restructuring, must be large enough, the Greek debt, occupy the proportion of gross domestic product in 2020, reduced to 120%.

如果希臘政府希望實現,“債務可持續性”目標,私人債權人,參與希臘債務重組的百分率,必須足夠的高,而且,以舊債換新債券的利率要足夠的低。

If the Greek government wants to achieve, “debt sustainability" target, private creditors to participate in the percentage of the debt restructuring of Greece, must be sufficiently high, and that the old debts of a new bond interest rates are low enough.

更為重要的安排是:“自願”的標籤,將會被貼在這份「私人債權人,自願性參與削減債務計劃」的協議上,因為有了這樣的說明,就不會觸發希臘信用違約掉期的信用事件。

The more important arrangements: the “voluntary" label, will be posted on this “private creditors, voluntary participation in the debt reduction plan," the agreement, because with such a description, it will not trigger the Greek credit default swaps of credit events.

(十四)2012年3月20日,希臘政府,將會有總計144億歐元的債務,到達歸還日期,希臘政府目前沒有資金支付。如果PSI可以在到期日之前完成,那麼希臘政府便可以鬆一口氣。因為,144億歐元的債務,將會削減成72.5億歐元。並且,這些債款,可以在很多、很多年以後才到期償還。

(14)March 20, 2012, the Greek government will have a total of 14.4 billion euros of debt, reach the return date, the Greek government is currently no funds to pay. The Greek government will be able to breathe a sigh of relief if PSI can be completed before the due date.14.4 billion euros of debt will be cut into 72.5 billion euros. And these debts can be many, many years’ later, due for repayment.

如果“自願”PSI不能達成結果,那麼,希臘政府,將會被迫實施,強制執行債務重組。例如:在債券條款中加入“集體行動條款”(CAC),限制少數人,都能夠阻止PSI計畫的進行。假如這種情況出現的話,也意味著,歐洲中央銀行的資產負債表,與歐元區會員國家的雙邊貸款,將會受到重大打擊。

If the “voluntary" PSI cannot reach the result, then, the Greek government will be forced to implement, enforce the debt restructuring. For example: In terms of the bond to join the “collective action clauses (CAC) to limit a few people are able to prevent the PSI plan. If this happens, then, also means that the European Central Bank’s balance sheet, and bilateral loans of euro area member countries, will be a major blow.

根據一名希臘財政官員透露:希臘政府,希望最低限度會有66%的民間債權人,會同意參加債務互換計劃。

According to the Greek Ministry of Finance officials said: The Greek government hopes that at least 66 percent of the private creditors and willing to participate in the debt swap scheme.

根據獲得歐元區財政部長通過的,希臘民間債權人參與債務重組(PSI)協議,這次債務互換,目標在於減免1070億歐元的希臘債務負擔。民間債權人被削減債款的幅度,最低限度會達到總債款的53.5%。

According to the euro zone finance ministers, adopted by the Greek private creditors in debt restructuring (PSI) agreement, the debt swap, the goal is relief of 107 billion euros of Greek debt burden. Private creditors to reduce the magnitude of the debt, at least will reach 53.5% of the total debt.

而且,新發行的債券期限,由11年到30年不等。在債務互換計劃中,每100歐元的債券,將換得面值31.5歐元的新發行希臘債券及由(EFSF)發行面值只有15歐元的短期票據。
希臘財長Evangels Venizelos表示:希臘政府已經訂立互換債券的細節。

Moreover, the new bonds issued for a period ranging from 11 years to 30 years. Every 100 euros of bonds in the debt swap scheme, in exchange for short-term notes issued nominal value of 31.5 euros each new issue of Greek bonds and (EFSF) is only 15 euros. The Evangels Venizelos, Greek Finance Minister: The Greek government has entered into swap details of the bonds.

希臘政府同時也發佈一項聲明:希臘財政部承認,削債法規內容將會包括,所謂的集體行動條款(CAC),聲明指出,如果有多達66%的民間債權人,同意新舊債券互相交換計劃,集體行動條款(CAC)條款,將會迫使,所有拒絕債務互換的持債人,強迫接受債券互換。

The Greek government also issued a statement: Greek Ministry of Finance admitted that the cut debt regulations will include the so-called collective action clauses (CAC), said in a statement, if there are up to 66% of private creditors agreed to the new and old bonds exchange plan, the terms of the collective action clauses (CAC), will force all refused to holders of debt swap debt, forced to accept the bond swap.

(十五)民間債權人,參與希臘債務互換的結果及對CDS的影響:

(15)Private creditors to participate in the Greek debt swap results and impact on the CDS:

(1)假設有90%債權人參與債務互換:
1希臘政府的對策:希臘政府會進行債務互換,但是,不會動用CAC。

2互換債券計劃能夠成功的可能性:如果希臘政府不動用(CAC),不可能會有90%的參與比率。因為,其中至少有一種已經發行的債券,要完全重新組合(沒有不參與者)。

3如果希臘政府不動用(CAC),債券互換,觸發危機的類型:由於重組某種債券的可能性很高,可能出現(CDS)信用違約的事件。

(1)Suppose there are 90% participation of creditors in the debt swap:
A. Greek government countermeasures: The Greek government debt swap, but will not use the CAC.

B. Swap the bond program to the likelihood of success: If the Greek government not to use the (CAC), it is impossible there will be 90% participation rate. Because, of which at least an already issued bonds, to be completely reassembled (no participants).

C. If the Greek government not to use the (CAC), bond swaps, trigger the type of crisis: a high possibility of the reorganization of some bonds may occur (CDS), credit default event.

(2)假設沒有90%債權人參與債務互換:
(2) Assuming no 90% participation of creditors in the debt swap:

a希臘政府的對策:希臘政府會強制進行動用(CAC)條款,進行債務互換計劃。

b希臘政府,能夠成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)信用違約事件的影響:希臘政府動用CAC重組債券,可能會到受希臘國內法例規管。因此,不能完全排除觸發信用違約事件。

c如果希臘政府動用(CAC)條款,進行債券互換,觸發危機的類型:如果強制把依據希臘國內法例規定發出的債券,進行重新組合,債券重新組合後,很有可能會出現信用違約事件。

A. Greek government countermeasures: the government will force the use of (CAC) provisions for debt swap scheme.

B. Greek government to successfully carry out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), credit default event: the Greek government to use CAC restructuring bonds may be regulated by the Greek domestic legislation. Therefore, the Greek government cannot completely rule out the possibility to trigger a credit event.

C. If the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), the bond exchange, the type that triggered the crisis: If the government forced the bonds issued in accordance with Greek law to regroup after the re-combination of the bonds, it is likely there will be a credit event.

(3)只有75%民間債權人參與的債務互換及強制執行(CAC)條款:

a希臘政府的對策:希臘政府承認並沒有認真討論過這種情況,但是,但是,不會排除動用CAC條款,進行債務互換。
b希臘政府成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)違約的影響:希臘政府動用(CAC)條款,重新組合受到希臘國內法例規管的債券,可能觸發(CDS)信用違約。
c如果希臘政府動用(CAC)條款,進行債券互換,觸發危機的類型:如果強制把依據希臘國內法例規定發出的債券,進行重新組合,債券重新組合後,很有可能會出現信用違約事件。

(3)Only 75% of private creditors in debt swap and enforce the terms of the (CAC):
A Countermeasures: the Greek government of the Greek government to recognize and there is no serious discussion of this case, but, however, does not rule out the use of CAC terms of the debt swap.

B The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), breach of contract: the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), and reassembled by the Greek domestic legislation to regulate the bonds, may trigger the credit default (CDS).

C If the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), the bond exchange, and the type that triggered the crisis: If the government forced the bonds issued in accordance with Greek law to re-combination, most likely there will be credit event.

(4)只有少於75%民間債權人參與的債務互換及可能不強制執行(CAC)條款:
(4)Only less than 75% of private creditors to participate in the debt swap and may not enforce the terms of the (CAC):

a希臘政府的對策:希臘政府可能進行自願性質的無限定債務互換,可能不會動用(CAC)條款。
b希臘政府成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)違約的影響:希臘政府可能會進行資源的無限定債務互換。希臘政府預料:所有發行的債券,最後有可能,都有不參與者。希臘政府可能償付債款給不參與債券互換者。
c觸發危機的類型:沒有進行完全重新組合,某種類別債券的計劃,所以不清楚是否觸發(CDS)信用違約:希臘政府認為:如果要償付沒有參與換債計劃者,也可能會發生無法償還貸款的信用違約事件。

A. The Greek government’s responses: the Greek government may be an indefinite voluntary debt swap may not spend the terms of the (CAC).
B. The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt and breach of contract (CDS): The Greek government resources may be an indefinite debt swap. The Greek government is expected to: All bonds issued, and finally there may be, there are not participants. The Greek government may pay the debt to not participate in bond swaps.
C. Trigger the type of crisis: There is no completely reassembled, the plan of certain types of bonds, so do not know whether to trigger credit default (CDS): Greek Government considers that: If you want to pay no participation-for-debt plan, may also occur and cannot repay loans the credit event.

(5)希臘政府成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)違約的影響:
a希臘政府,有可能會進行由政府提供資源補償的債務互換。希臘政府預料:所有發行的債券,最後有可能,都有不參與者。希臘政府可能償付債款給不參與債券互換者。
b觸發危機的類型:希臘政府,沒有進行債券完全重新組合計劃,某種類別債券的計劃,政府不會清楚,會否觸發(CDS)信用違約。
c希臘政府認為:政府如果要償付沒有參與換債計劃者,也可能會發生,無法償還貸款的信用違約事件。

(5)The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), breach of contract:
A. Greek government may carry out the debt swap by the government to provide resources for compensation. The Greek government is expected to: All bonds issued, and finally there may be, there are not participants. The Greek government may pay the debt to not participate in bond swaps.
B. Type that triggered the crisis: the Greek Government, without the bond completely reassembled plan, the plan of certain types of bonds, the Government will not clear whether it will trigger the credit default (CDS).
C. The Greek government: if the Government wants to pay did not participate in the for-debt plan, may also occur and cannot repay the loan credit event.

(6)民間債權人參與率不足70%的債務互換計劃及(CAC)條款即時生效:
a由換債協議觸發的金融危機:沒有了(PSI)和債務互換協議。
b換債成功的可能性及對CDS的影響:不可能出現觸發(CDS)違約的重新組合。但是,大批2012年3月20的到期債券,存在無法償付的風險。
c觸發危機的類型:希臘政府無法償付2012年3月20的到期債券。

(6)Private creditors to participate in the rate of less than 70% of the debt swap plan (CAC) provisions with immediate effect:
A. The financial crisis triggered by the exchange of debt agreement: There is no debt swap agreement.
B. Convertible debt and the possibility of default (CDS): cannot trigger the re-combination (CDS), breach of contract. However, a large number of March 20, 2012 maturity bonds, there is the risk of unpayable.
C. Trigger the type of crisis: the Greek Government is unable to pay the 20 March 2012 maturity bonds.

親愛的讀者們:您覺得希臘政府:能夠成功以舊債置換新債嗎?
Dear Readers: Do you think the Greek government: be able to successfully exchange of new debt to old debts?

(十六)根據希臘債券民間債權人代表,國際金融協會( I.I.F.)主席達拉勒(Charles Dollars)表示:希臘政府將會在2012年03月12日成功與民間債權人,進行債務互換計劃,但是,有報道指出:仍然有部份債主,未有意願參與換債計劃,最終或會觸發(CDS)賠償事件。

(16)According to the Greek bonds, private creditors on behalf of the President of the Institute of International Finance, According to the Greek bonds, private creditors on behalf of the President of the Institute of International Finance, said: The Greek government will be March 12, 2012, to reach an agreement with private creditors, the debt swap scheme. However, it has been reported: there are still some lenders not willing to participate-for-debt plan, and ultimately may trigger compensation in the event of (CDS). Charles Dollars said: The Greek government will be March 12, 2012, to reach an agreement with private creditors, the debt swap scheme. However, it has been reported: there are still some lenders not willing to participate-for-debt plan, and ultimately may trigger compensation in the event of (CDS).

但是,達拉勒表示:對希臘換債過程順利,感到樂觀,達拉勒預料,民間債權人的參與比率,將會「頗高」;達拉勒又指出:(CDS)違約的賠償問題,不會影響到換債的過程。

However, Charles Dollars: Greece-for-debt process smoothly, and are optimistic, Charles Dollars expected, the participation rate of the private creditors will be “high"; Charles Dollars also pointed out that: (CDS), breach of the issue of compensation, not will affect the process of changing debt.

儘管如此,英國《每日電訊報》報道,由於參與換債的債權人比率,沒有達到90%,希臘政府正在考慮強制執行「集體行動條款」( CAC),用來逼使民間債權人參與換債計劃。

Nevertheless, the British “The Daily Telegraph" reported that due to the creditors involved in the exchange of debt ratio did not reach 90%, the Greek government is considering the enforcement of collective action clauses (CAC), is used to force private creditors to participate in the convertible debt plan.

希臘政府表示,只會在有 90%以上債權人同意的情況下,才會展開換債行動。

如果參與換債人數比率,沒有達到 90%,但是,人數仍然多於 75%時,希臘政府將會與民間債權人進行談判。如果一切順利,歐盟領袖將會向希臘政府,發放第二次的緊急貸款。

The Greek government said that the only action in more than 90% of creditors have agreed to the situation will only change the debt.
If the debt proportion of people involved in change, did not reach 90%, however, remained more than 75%, the Greek government will work with the private creditors to negotiate. If all goes well, the EU leaders will be to the Greek government issued a second emergency loan.

(十七)筆者對外匯市場的認識:
日本貨幣短線的目標在:94.9
(17)Author on the foreign exchange market:
Japanese currency short-term goal: 94.9

美元兌日元匯價,成功突破81.67高位之後,曾經到達81.86水平,直逼82.00的心理關口。
U.S. dollar against the yen, after a successful break through the 81.67 high, has reached the 81.86 level, almost equal to 82.00 of the psychological barrier.

美元兌日本圓的技術指標,已經到達100個星期(SMA)的82.18關鍵阻力位。
美元兌日元匯價:在於2012年3月2日以81.78水平收市。再一次以接近整個星期內的最高點收市,並且更在周線圖上,呈現連續4個星期,向上攀升的形態。
美元兌日本圓匯價,成功突破81.67高位之後,曾一度達到81.86水平,直逼82.00的心理關口。

The technical specifications of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency have reached 82.18 key resistance levels of 100 weeks (SMA).
U.S. dollar against Japanese currency: March 2, 2012 to the close of the 81.78 level.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar was once again close to the highest point of closing throughout the week, and on the weekly chart, showing the four weeks in a row, the shape-up.
U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency exchange rate in Japan, successfully break through the 81.67 high, has once reached the 81.86 level, almost equal to 82.00 of the psychological barrier.

如果,這一個星期,即(2012-03-05至2012-03-09),美元兌日圓匯價,可以順利向上升,並且,再一次成功在高點位置區收市。由於匯價區,是自從2007年8月以來,首次返回100個星期(SMA)區間內收市,故此,在技術分析層面上,有重大意義。同時,反映美元兌日圓匯價,自從2007年以來的大弱勢,已經正式暫告一段落。

One week (2012-03-05 to 2012-03-09), the U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate can be smoothly to rise, and again in the location area of the high point of closing. Because the exchange rate area is back to 100 weeks (SMA) for the first time since August 2007, the closing range, therefore, the level of technical analysis, there is great significance. At the same time, reflecting the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, since the big weakness since 2007, has officially ended.

美元兌日圓的匯價,從今往後,6個月內,絕對不適宜掉以輕心,因為美元兌日本圓的匯價,有可能會在毫無癥兆下,呈現急劇上升或下降的局面。至於,進入匯市策略,應該繼續跟隨順勢,買入美元兌日圓為主。
筆者的目標:匯價會朝着2010年的94.98高位,逐漸向上邁進。

U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate, six months from now on, should by no means be taken lightly, because the U.S. dollar against the Japanese Yuan currency exchange rate may under no signs, showing a sharp rise or fall situation. As to enter the foreign exchange market strategy, should continue to follow homeopathy, the buying of the dollar against the yen.
The author’s goal: the exchange rate will move toward the 94.98 high in 2010, gradually moving up.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。
My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.