(Chapter 21) European financial stability mechanism can play founded declared: the protection of the member countries, the financial stability function?


(第21章)歐洲金融穩定機制,能夠發揮創立時宣稱:保護各成員國家金融穩定的功能嗎?

歐洲金融穩定機制是一個甚麼性質的國際組織?
European financial stability mechanism is what kind of an international organization?

歐洲金融穩定機制成立於2010年5月,設立的目標是:保護各成員國的金融穩定,集合資金總額,大約在7500億美元。

European Financial Stability Facility, established in May 2010, established objectives are: to protect the financial stability of member states, a collection of the total funds, about $ 750 billion.

EFSF各國出資比例: EFSF countries funded ratio:
國家
Country 資金(百萬歐元)
Funds (in millions of euros) 百分比(%)Percentage (%)
奧地利 Austria 12,241.43 2.78%
比利時 Belgium 15,292.18 3.48%
賽普路斯 Cyprus 863.09 0.20%
芬蘭 Finland 7,905.20 1.80%
法國 France 89,657.45 20.38%
德國 Germany 119,390.07 27.13%
希臘 Greece 12,387.70 2.82%
愛爾蘭 Ireland 7,002.40 1.59%
義大利 Italy 78,784.72 17.91%
盧森堡 Luxembourg 1,101.39 0.25%
馬爾他 Malta 398.44 0.09%
荷蘭 Netherlands 25,143.58 5.71%
葡萄牙 Portugal 11,035.38 2.51%
斯洛伐克 Slovakia 4,371.54 0.99%
斯洛文尼亞 Slovenia 2,072.92 0.47%
西班牙 Spain 52,352.51 11.90%
合計 Total 440,000.00 100%

2010年5月,歐元區債務危機,進一步加深,歐洲中央銀行和歐洲各個成員國家,面對經濟衰退的出現,歐洲國家的領袖,擔憂金融危機會爆發,影響歐元區內的銀行,無法解決資金短絀,EFSF在危難中成立了。
那麼, EFSF究竟是一個甚麼性質的組織?為甚麼這一個組織,被稱為是:歐洲經濟危機的最後一根救命稻草?

In May 2010, the euro zone debt crisis, further deepening the European Central Bank and the European member countries, the face of economic recession, the nation’s leaders in Europe, concerns about the financial crisis would erupt, affecting the banks within the euro zone cannot solve the funding shortage, and the EFSF was set up in a crisis.
Then, the European financial stability mechanism is exactly what kind of an organization?
Why is this an organization known as: the last one of Europe’s economic crisis, life-saving prescription?

1 歐洲金融穩定機制,對歐洲銀行,面對金融危機,會有甚麼幫助:

1 European financial stability mechanism for the involvement of a financial crisis, European banks, what will help?

European Financial Stability Facility operational processed:
(1) 借款超額擔保120%擔保上限4400億歐元
(1) the borrower over guarantee a 120% guarantee up to € 440 billion
(2)提高歐元區會員國貸款機制
(2) to improve the euro area, Member States lending mechanism
(3)擔保比例依照EBC認繳資本比例
(3) guarantee the proportion of subscribed capital ratio in accordance with EBC
(4)須在歐元區與IMF聯合計劃下運作
(4) shall operate under the joint program of the euro area with the IMF

(5)由參與EFSF擔保國家,決定是否提供融資服務
(5) by the participating the EFSF secured countries, to decide whether to provide financing services

By the countries involved in guarantees to decide whether to provide

雖然歐洲中央銀行,已經竭盡所能,儘量幫助歐洲各成員國家,避免受到債務危機的蔓延。

While the European Central Bank, have done everything it can to try and help the European member countries, to avoid the spread of the debt crisis.

但是,直到今時今日,歐洲的經濟危機狀況,卻沒有絲毫的減退,反而有愈演愈烈的趨勢,原因就在於:歐洲中央銀行早期過於低估了,義大利債務危機的真實情況。

However, until today, Europe’s economic crisis situation, but no decline, but a growing trend, the reason is that: the European Central Bank, the early underestimated the true situation of the debt crisis in Italy.

意大利的債務危機,絕對不是投資者當初所想像的那麼簡單。

Italy’s debt crisis is definitely not as simple as investors had thought.

原因是:義大利是一個人口眾多的國家。義大利長期的金融及稅務政策,存在嚴重的漏洞。人民、企業避稅的情況,十分嚴重。導致主權債務危機,不斷的積累和加深。雖然,現在還不甚明顯,但是一旦債務危機發生蔓延,那麼義大利的債務危機,將會一發不可收拾,因此只有請求EFSF來進行幫忙。

The reason: Italy is a populous country. Italy’s long-term financial and taxation policies, there are serious loopholes. People, corporate tax avoidance, the situation is very serious. Lead to sovereign debt crisis, the accumulation and deepening. Although still not so obvious, but once the debt crisis spread, then, the debt crisis in Italy, will be out of control, therefore, only request EFSF to help.

The five countries each month the total debt due
國家 希臘 愛爾蘭 西班牙 葡萄牙 意大利 五國每月到期債款
country Greece Ireland Spain Portugal Italy the total debt due a month
01-2012 43.60 4.74 154.47 39.63 165.95 408.39
02-2012 25.07 0.04 150.37 42.53 630.50 848.51
03-2012 174.51 62.09 94.86 28.32 516.98 876.76
04-2012 20.68 13.03 268.94 10.11 463.92 776.68
05-2012 115.46 0.00 89.23 3.68 194.47 402.84
06-2012 29.91 6.39 67.58 120.49 111.95 336.32
07-2012 30.49 0.00 315.83 10.54 271.16 628.02
08-2012 96.79 0.05 75.44 3.90 280.27 456.45
09-2012 10.19 0.19 78.15 6.12 263.73 358.38
10-2012 11.75 12.01 316.81 17.75 292.34 650.66
11-2012 0.87 0.00 28.53 0.52 227.78 257.70
12-2012 23.35 0.36 57.93 14.74 407.37 503.75
總債款 582.67 98.90 1698.14 298.33 3826.42 6504.46
資料來源: Bloomberg

2 歐元區設立EFSF的另一個原因是:

Another reason for the euro area set up EFSF is:

從歷史背景來看,歐洲各成員國家之間,人民的思想和行為,步伐向來都不一致。因此,歐洲各個成員國家,沒有拿出,共渡難關的精神。相反,歐洲有些國家的人民認為:我們國家金融制度正常運作,我們為甚麼要拿出金錢去幫助陷入財政困難的國家?他們表現出:事情不關乎自己國家,我們為甚麼要關心金融危機的態度。

From the perspective of the historical background, the European member countries, people’s thoughts and actions, the pace has always been at odds. Therefore, the European member countries did not come up with the spirit of the tide over the crisis. On the contrary, people in some countries in Europe: the normal operation of our country’s financial system, why should we come up with money to help countries in financial difficulties? They showed: things are not related to their own country, why should we care about the attitude of the financial crisis.

由於EFSF的設立,只是單方向的措施,所以EFSF與成員國家之間,無法產生互補的效果。
EFSF the establishment of only one-way measures, the EFSF between the member countries cannot produce a complementary effect.

雖然:歐洲中央銀行,尚.克勞德.特里謝 行長,不斷呼籲各個國家,應當採取相應的措施,防止債務危機的蔓延。

Although the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Richet has repeatedly called on all countries should take appropriate measures to prevent the spread of the debt crisis.

然而,許多未感受到債務危機的國家,反應則是相當冷淡,因此,當時的歐洲國家的領袖認為,只有創立EFSF,才能夠應付金融危機。

However, many countries did not feel the debt crisis, the reaction is quite indifferent, therefore, the then leader of the European countries believe that only the creation of the EFSF, to be able to cope with the financial crisis.

3 EFSF設立後,能夠解決金融危機中的實質問題嗎?

3 After the EFSF set up, able to resolve the substantive issues in the financial crisis?

首先,我們來看一看,這個金融穩定機制,創建時的具體目標是:
在2010年5月,歐洲的政治領袖,驚覺金融危機將會爆發,為了能夠攜手採取措施,應對難以解決的狀況,於是集合各個歐元區國家,共同創辦了歐洲金融穩定機制,目的是為了避免,歐元區內某一些國家,金融界出現混亂。於是部份歐洲國家,集合7500億美元,用來幫助未來可能發生金融體系崩潰的國家。

In May 2010, Europe’s political leaders, alerted to the outbreak of the financial crisis will be, in order to be able to join hands to take measures to deal with the difficult to resolve the situation, so a collection of individual euro area countries, co-founder of the European financial stability mechanism, the aim is to avoid some countries in the euro area, the financial chaos. As a result, some European countries, a collection of $ 750 billion to help possible future collapse of the national financial system.

從設立金融穩定機制的定義來看,的確可以幫助歐洲一些國家暫時緩解債務危機。然而,隨著金融危機的蔓延,今時今日,想要根除危機,卻是難如登天。因此,需要全球的國家,共同努力改善經濟狀況,才可以更加完美地,幫助歐洲渡過困難。

From the definition of a financial stability mechanism can indeed help in some European countries, temporary relief from the debt crisis. However, with the spread of the financial crisis, today, want to eradicate the crisis, but it is impossible and therefore, countries around the world work together to improve the economic situation, can only be more perfect, to help Europe through the difficult.

其實,歐洲中央銀行及聯儲局,已經為了拯救歐洲債務危機,準備了應變措施,就是注入超高額的流動性現金,用來充斥歐洲和美國金融體系,以確保雷曼事件不會重演,意思是:美國和歐洲的領袖,不會容許,有大型金融機構出現倒閉風潮。

in fact, the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Board, in order to save the debt crisis in Europe, to prepare contingency measures is to inject ultra-high mobility of cash used to flooded Europe and the U.S. financial system to ensure the Lehman event does not repeat itself, meaning that: leader of the United States and Europe, will not allow large financial institutions, the collapse of the wave.

4 2011年歐洲中央銀行,已經向銀行業,推出近 5000億歐元的 3年期 1厘低息貸款措施(即所謂的 LTRO),超過 500間歐資銀行參與,當中有中、小型銀行,只是為了拆入資金,來補充銀行的現金流;

2011 the European Central Bank to the banking sector, the introduction of nearly 500 billion euros in three years of 1% low-interest loans measures (i.e. the so-called LTRO), more than 500 banks in Europe to participate in them, and small banks, but in order to borrowing money to supplement the bank’s cash flow;

也有大型銀行,拆入資金後,繼而買入年利率 5至 7厘的歐洲債券,賺取利息差額,隨後又把債券,存在放歐洲中央銀行,作為循環貸款的抵押品,銀行這些舉措,實際上,已經變相成為了一種,另類的量化寬鬆措施。實際運作上:歐洲中央銀行內,並沒有放貸給銀行相同數額的現金。

Large banks, the capital borrowed, and then buy the interest rate of 5-7% of European bonds, earn interest margin, then again the bonds, there is the release of the European Central Bank as collateral for the revolving loan, the banks of these initiatives, the actual has become an alternative quantitative easing measures. The actual operation: the European Central Bank does not lend to banks, the same amount of cash.

資金的來源:其實是歐洲中央銀行透過與美國聯儲局,預先安排好的, 1萬億美元兌歐元的貨幣掉期合約。

The source of funds: in fact, is through with the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, pre-arranged $ 1 trillion against the euro currency swap contracts.

美國聯儲局內部,實際上,也沒有擁有1萬億美元的現金,所謂貨幣掉期,實際上,是存在於兩大中央銀行之間,資產負債表內的一種,加數、減數確認或進行印刷鈔票的操作。

Within the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, in fact, did not have $ 1 trillion in cash, the so-called currency swaps, in fact, exist between the two central banks, a balance sheet, the addend, subtrahend to confirm or the operation of printing money.

未來幾個月,筆者幾乎可以預期,歐洲債券的壞消息,將會頻繁而不斷重複地出現,歐洲中央銀行和美國聯儲局,已經進入隨時啟動,超寬鬆的量化寬鬆措施。

The next few months, I almost expected the bad news of the Eurobond will be frequent and repeated, the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, has entered, start at any time, ultra-loose quantitative easing measures.

金融市場預期:2012年 2月 29日,歐洲中央銀行推出的第二輪 LTRO,將會累計拆出達 1萬億歐元的貸款。筆者認為:最終投入的資金額度,會視乎美國聯儲局,是否會同步參與。

Financial market expectations: February 29, 2012, the European Central Bank launched the second round of LTRO will be cumulative demolition of up to € 1 trillion of loans. I believe that: the final amount of capital invested will depend on the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, whether synchronous participation.

實際的情況,我相信,將會視乎當時的危機風險,會不會導致:大型的國際性銀行倒閉。我的論述重點是:投資市場,似乎正在醞釀新一波,類似 QE1及 QE2後續的「通脹式」上升趨勢。

The actual situation, I believe, will depend on the risk of crisis, will result in: a large international bank failure. The exposition will focus on: the investment market seems to be brewing a new wave of similar QE1 and QE2 subsequent inflation type upward trend.

5 標準普爾降低34間意大利銀行信貸評級:

5 Standard & Poor’s credit rating reduced by 34 Italian banks:

標準普爾自從上月調低意大利國家主權評級兩級後。

Standard & Poor’s since last month to reduce Italy’s sovereign rating levels.

10-02-2012 標準普爾:決定降低意大利34家銀行的信貸評級,其中包括義大利最大銀行,裕信銀行,評級更被連續降兩級,由A級降低至BBB+級,評級展望為負面。
由於意大利政府,欠債纍纍,增加當地銀行業,向金融市場貸款的難度。

10-02-2012 Standard & Poor’s: decision to lower the credit rating of the 34 banks in Italy, including Italy’s largest bank, Unit Creditor Italian bank, the rating was a continuous drop two lower A-level to BBB + level, the rating outlook is negative.
As the Italian government, numerous debts increase the difficulty of the local banking sector, loans to financial markets.

6 標準普爾,下調歐洲國家信貸評級,實際上會提高EFSF的融資成本:

Standard & Poor’s lowered the European countries credit rating will actually improve EFSF financing costs:

這一次信貸評級的下調,將會嚴重增加歐元區,個別國家主權債務的危機,不斷惡化下去。

Credit rating lowered, it will seriously increase the euro zone sovereign debt crisis of individual countries continue to deteriorate.

法國等歐元區國家主權信用評級,被評級機構下調等級,肯定會嚴重削弱,歐洲金融穩定基金(EFSF)的放款功效,特別是在EFSF堅持維持AAA評級的情況下,而這也將不利於,擴大資金募集管道。

France and other euro-zone countries sovereign credit rating, the rating agencies down grade, will certainly be seriously weakened, the European Financial Stability Fund loan effectiveness, especially the European Financial Stability Fund, adhere to the circumstances to maintain its AAA rating. The ratings go down, will not be conducive to expanding the sources of fund-raising.

一位歐洲中央銀行官員表示,法國主權信貸AAA評級,被評級公司下調一個等級,將導致EFSF營救陷入債務危機國家的力量,大約下降20%,等於從4400億歐元下降至3600億歐元。

A European Central Bank officials said that the French AAA sovereign credit rating, the rating companies lowered one level, will lead to the rescue EFSF into the strength of the state of the debt crisis, declined by about 20%, equal to the decline from 440 billion euros to 360 billion euros.

歐洲中央銀行的官員和經濟學家指出,標準普爾下調:包括評級為AAA的奧地利等國的主權信用評級,將會進一步削弱,EFSF發行頂級評級債券的能力。

European Central Bank officials and economists pointed out that: including the rating of the sovereign credit rating of AAA, Austria and other countries, Standard & Poor’s lowered; it will further weaken the EFSF the ability to issue top-rated bonds.

此外,部分歐元區國家評級遭下調,將提高EFSF的融資成本。解決方案:只能允許EFSF,發行評級低於AAA的債券,於是,現有的擔保額度,便可以確保,發行更多的低級別債券,EFSF的營救力量,將立即得到提高。

In addition, some euro area countries rating was down will increase the EFSF the cost of financing. Solution: only allow the EFSF issue rated below AAA bonds, therefore, the guarantee amount, can ensure that the issuer of more low-grade bonds, the EFSF rescue forces immediately improved.

參與EFSF談判的歐洲中央銀行官員表示,其實,4440億歐元的營救力量並不足夠。

EFSF negotiations, the European Central Bank officials said, in fact, the € 444 billion rescue force is not enough.

不過,這位官員表示:迄今為止,儘管評級為AAA的EFSF,已經發行約200億歐元頂級評級的債券,其AAA評級,仍有可能出現變動。

However, the official said: Although the EFSF rating of AAA, has released about 20 billion euros top-rated bonds, their AAA ratings, there may appear to change.

法國等歐元區國家的評級,被評級機構下調等級,可能促使歐元區領導人,決定允許2010年5月設立,用於援救葡萄牙和愛爾蘭的EFSF,發行評級低於AAA的債券。有一些官員認為,這項舉措,其實有助於,提高EFSF的放貸功能。

France and other euro area countries credit rating, the rating agency lowered grades, could prompt the euro zone leaders decided to allow established in May 2010 for the rescue of Portugal and Ireland, the EFSF issuance of bonds rated below AAA. Some officials believe that this initiative, in fact, help to improve the EFSF’s lending functions.

歐洲中央銀行官員認為,EFSF的AAA評級,代表的不是整個歐元區,只是歐元區的一部分。

European Central Bank officials believe that the EFSF’s AAA rating, the representative of the entire euro zone, is only part of the euro area.

歐元區的領導人,可能會在3月份舉行的高峰會上,決定把總規模為5000億歐元的EFSF,和7月建成的永久性歐洲穩定機制(ESM)合併。

The leaders of the euro area may Summit held in March, the total size of 500 billion euros of the EFSF and completed in July, permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

根據現有協議的規定,EFSF和ESM的合併放貸能力,不能超過5000億歐元,歐元區領導人,將于2012年3月的高峰會上,重新商定細節。
歐元區領導人,到時可能會不理會,德國的反對,為合併放貸能力,設定信貸上限。

Under the existing provisions of the agreement, the combined lending capacity of the EFSF and ESM, not more than 500 billion euros, the euro zone leaders will be in March 2012 of the Summit, to renegotiate the details.

The euro zone leaders to ignore the opposition of Germany, for the combined lending capacity, a maximum credit limit.

EFSF的放貸能力,建基於歐元區政府的擔保情況。在17個參與機制的國家中,只有6個國家的主權信用評級為AAA,因此,所有歐洲成員的國家,有需要提供更多擔保金額,維持EFSF的AAA評級。

EFSF’s lending capacity based on the euro-zone government guarantees. 17 countries involved in the mechanism, only six of the country’s sovereign credit rating is AAA, therefore, all the European member countries need to provide more guarantees amount to maintain the AAA rating of the EFSF.

目前,各成員國家,承諾資金總額為7800億歐元。然而,擁有AAA評級的國家已經從6個減少至4個,其餘11國的評級,也面臨不同程度的變動。

Currently, all member countries, the total committed capital of € 780 billion. However, countries with AAA ratings have been reduced from six to four, the rating of the remaining 11 countries, but also face varying degrees of changes.

全球三大評級機構表示:建基於只有四個國家(荷蘭、德國、芬蘭和盧森堡)仍為AAA的國家,作為評核EFSF的評級準則,有很大難度,除非這些國家,提高更多擔保。

The three global rating agencies, said: built on the only four countries (Netherlands, Germany, Finland and Luxembourg) is still an AAA country rating criteria, as the assessment EFSF, there will be a great difficulty, unless they increase more secured.

7 EFSF對被評級機構下調評級的回應:標準普爾降級不影響EFSF貸款的能力:

7 the EFSF response to downgrades by rating agencies: Standard & Poor’s downgrade does not affect the ability of the EFSF loans:

根據道瓊斯通訊社消息,歐洲金融穩定基金(EFSF)首席執行官雷格林2012年1月16日表示:標準普爾評級服務公司把EFSF評級下調,由AAA級下調至AA+級,不會影響EFSF的放貸能力。儘管歐元區債務危機,仍然甚囂塵上,但是歐元區,絕對不會瓦解。

According to the Dow Jones news agency, the CEO of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) Klaus Regaling said: January 16, 2012 Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered EFSF rating level down from AAA to AA + level, does not affect the EFSF’s lending capacity.

雷格林在一份電子郵件聲明中說:「標準普爾,將EFSF評級下調一級,至AA+,這種舉措,不會影響EFSF現有4,400億歐元貸款能力」。他說,根據當前計畫,以及未來可能做出的調整計畫,在歐洲穩定機制(ESM)於2012年7月投入運行之前,EFSF完全有能力實現承諾。

Regaling said in an emailed statement: “Standard & Poor’s, the EFSF rating down one, to AA +, this initiative will not affect the EFSF 440 billion euro lending capacity. He said that based on current plans, as well as possible future adjustments made plans before the European stability mechanism (ESM) is put into operation in July 2012, the EFSF completely have the ability to promise.

聲明還補充稱:標準普爾給予EFSF的短期評級,依然在最高的A-1+級;與此同時,標準普爾的兩間國際同行伙伴——穆迪投資者服務公司和惠譽——給予EFSF的長期和短期信用評級,都仍然是最高級別。

The statement added: Standard & Poor’s EFSF the short-term rating, still the highest A-1 + level; at the same time, Standard & Poor’s two international peer partners – Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings – give the EFSF long-term and short-term credit rating is still the highest level.

2012年1月13日,標準普爾首先調降了法國和奧地利的“AAA”信貸評級,同時也調降了,包括義大利在內的其他7個國家的信貸評級。

January 13, 2012, Standard & Poor’s first cut in France and Austria, “AAA" credit rating, and also lowered the credit rating of the other seven countries, including Italy.

標準普爾16日將EFSF長期信貸評級由“AAA”調降至“AA+”,在該機構13日大規模調降歐元區成員國的信貸評級之後,這一舉措,就已在預料之中。

EFSF long-term credit rating from “AAA" by Standard & Poor’s, February 16, 2012 cut to “AA +", large-scale cut its credit rating of the euro area member states on the 13th of the agency after this move, had been expected being.

8 歐洲中央銀行,願意幫助希臘主權債券,置換為EFSF債券:

8 European Central Bank is willing to help the Greek sovereign bonds, the replacement for the EFSF bonds:

歐洲中央銀行同意,以低於票面值的價格,用歐洲中央銀行持有的希臘國債,交換歐洲金融穩定基金(EFSF)所發行的公債。前題必須是:希臘與私人債權人,在希臘國債減值問題上,必須先取得成果。

The European Central Bank agreed to a price below par value, of Greek government bonds held by the European Central Bank, the exchange of bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF).The premise is: Greece, with private creditors, the impairment on the issue of Greek government bonds, must be to achieve results.

《華爾街日報》引述消息人士稱,EFSF發行予歐洲中央銀行的債券,實際上將會由希臘所支付。

The Wall Street Journal, citing sources, said the EFSF to issue bonds, to the European Central Bank will actually be paid by the Greek.

換句話說,歐洲中央銀行是間接,接受了希臘國債的減值,但亦換到風險較低的債券。

In other words, the European Central Bank is indirectly accepted the impairment of the Greek government bonds, but also switch to low-risk bonds.

透過此計劃,希臘債務負擔,將削減大約110億歐元。因為歐洲中央銀行,在次級債券市場買入債券時,債券的價格,已經是低於票面價格,歐洲中央銀行,在這項交易中,不會遭受損失。

Through this program, Greece’s debt burden will be reduced to about 11 billion euros. European Central Bank, to buy bonds in the secondary bond market, bond prices, is already lower than the nominal price of the European Central Bank in this transaction, will not suffer losses.

分析師認為,這些舉措,有助於希臘政黨領袖,與私人債權人達成債務協定。
報道又指出,歐洲中央銀行,願意以低於票面價格,交換的希臘國債,這些希臘國債是於2011年,在次級債券市場上,花費約400億歐元購入的。

The analysts believe that these initiatives contribute to the Greek political party leaders, to reach a debt agreement with private creditors.
The report also pointed out that the European Central Bank is willing to lower than the nominal prices, the exchange of Greek government bonds, these Greek government bonds in 2011, in the secondary bond market, spend about 40 billion euros to acquire.

歐洲中央銀行,在2011年,重新啟動,購買債券計劃,買入包括意大利、西班牙等,陷入債務危機的國家債券。

European Central Bank, in 2011, re-start, the purchase of the bond program, buying the bonds of countries including Italy, Spain, into a debt crisis.

歐洲中央銀行,曾經拒絕為其所持有的希臘國債減值,現在,重新購買這些陷入債務危機的國家債券,純粹是為了挽救偏離正軌的市場。歐洲中央銀行說:這是為了避免影響貨幣政策的運作效率,並非為了拯救個別國家。

European Central Bank has refused for its holdings of Greek government bonds impairment, now re-buy into a debt crisis of the national debt, purely in order to save the market aberration. European Central Bank, said: This is to avoid the operational efficiency of monetary policy, not to save the individual countries.

9 這是一句中國的成語:「長貧難顧」:

9 This is a Chinese saying :To help the long-term poverty is very difficult.

歐洲中央銀行行長德拉吉2012年2月9日表示:

February 9, 2012, the European Central Bank Governor Mario Draught said:

歐洲中央銀行近期採取的貨幣政策,已經令歐元區經濟前景得到一些改善。對於金融市場關注的,有關中央銀行,會否參與救助希臘的問題,德拉吉未能給出答案。

Recently adopted by the European Central Bank monetary policy, has made the prospects for the euro zone economy to get some improvement. Concern of financial markets, the central bank, will take part in the rescue of Greece, Mario Draught cannot answer.

德拉吉表示:歐元區經濟前景,面臨高度不確定性和下行風險,下行風險和商品價格、全球經濟前景與保護主義相關聯。總體貨幣擴張步伐,仍然受到限制。與此同時,全球需求增長受壓、歐洲聯盟債務局勢,打壓全球總體經濟動能。

Mario Draught: the economic prospects of the euro area, facing a high degree of uncertainty and downside risks, commodity prices, global economic outlook and protectionism interrelated. The overall pace of monetary expansion is still limited. At the same time, global growth in demand pressure, the debt situation in the European Union, to suppress the overall global economic momentum.

德拉吉同時指出,在央行貨幣政策措施的提振下,金融市場的壓力已經得到緩解,經濟也出現了短暫的企穩跡象。

Mario Draught also pointed out that the central bank’s monetary policy measures to boost financial market pressures have eased, the economy; there have been signs of stabilization of short-term.

盡管2011年第四季度,實際經濟增幅,將會非常疲軟。但是,預計2012年,經濟將逐漸復甦。歐洲中央銀行的長期再融資操作,有了卓越貢獻。我們看到,經濟數據似乎已經顯示:經濟已經穩定了。

Although the fourth quarter of 2011, real economic growth will be very weak. However, it is expected that in 2012, the economy will gradually recover. The European Central Bank’s long-term refinancing operations, with an outstanding contribution. We see that the economic data seems to show: that the economy has stabilized.

德拉吉進一步表示:三年期,再融資操作啟動之後,第一季度,銀行融資壓力,已經得到緩解;預計第二輪,三年期LTRO將獲得良好的需求,規模應該與第一輪相似。但是,德拉吉也重覆,前幾次政策聲明中的觀點:即歐洲中央銀行的非標準措施,只是暫時進行而已。

Mario Draught further said: The three-year period after the start, the first quarter, the bank funding pressures have been eased; expected the second round, three-year period, refinancing operation: get a good demand, the scale should be similar to the first round. However, Mario Draught also repeated, in view of the previous policy statement: that the European Central Bank, non-standard measures, only a temporary conduct it.

關於希臘的國債問題,該行長表示,對於希臘而言,最為重要的是:政府與人民,能夠為緊縮政策達成協議,希臘的金融改革,應當放在第一位。此外,他亦期望,希臘政府與私人機構債券人的談判,能夠達成協議。

On the issue of government debt of Greece, Mario Draught said, for Greece, the most important are: the government and the people, to reach an agreement to tighten policy, financial reform in Greece, should be top priority. In addition, he also expects that the Greek government and the private sector bond negotiations, agreement can be reached.

德拉吉在談及市場廣泛關注:歐洲中央銀行,會否就持有的希臘債務減記,總裁德拉吉一方面指出:歐洲中央銀行,絕對不做蝕本生意;另一方面,卻暗示,會將出售希臘債券的利潤,透過歐洲金融穩定機制,間接轉移至希臘。

Drudge in the market talking about widespread concern: the European Central Bank, whether held by the Greek debt write-downs, president Mario Draught the one hand, pointed out: the European Central Bank, and absolutely not to incur losses; the other hand, it implies the sale of the profits of the Greek bonds, through the European financial stabilization mechanism indirectly transferred to Greece.

德拉吉表示:希臘是特例,歐洲中央銀行,對於處理希臘債務問題,沒有第二個計劃,他非常相信:所有安排,都將各就各位。但是,依然沒有明確表明:歐洲中央銀行,對於希臘債務問題,實際採取何種應對措施。

Mario Draught said: Greece is a special case of the European Central Bank is no arrangement for the second plan, for dealing with the debt problems of Greece, he was very convinced: all the arrangements, will find their own place., However, is still not clear that: the European Central Bank to deal with the debt problems of Greece, the actual What counter-measures.

德拉吉就這一種變相資助希臘的舉措,所表示出來的說辭非常謹慎,他指出:歐洲中央銀行,礙於職權範圍,不能違反法規,直接提供資金援助希臘。但是,可以把出售債券所得的利潤,分派給成員國家,而成員國家,是有權利,用自己認為合適的方式,處置這些,獲得分派的利潤。德拉吉進一步補充:EFSF其實同樣可以視為成員國家之一。

Mario Draught on this a disguised form of funded initiatives in Greece, the rhetoric is very cautious, he pointed out: the European Central Bank, due to the terms of reference, can not violate the regulations, direct funding assistance to Greece.
However, the profits of the sale of the bond proceeds distributed to member countries, member countries have the right to use as they see fit, dispose of them, and access to distributable profits. Mario Draught further added: the EFSF in fact, can also be regarded as one of the member countries.

德拉吉言下之意,非常明白,換言之,歐洲中央銀行,可以將出售希臘國債所得的利潤,分派給EFSF,然後,EFSF便可以把分派所得的利潤,以某種特定方式,轉讓給希臘政府,減輕希臘政府的還債負擔。

Mario Draught implication, very conscious, in other words, the European Central Bank, will be sold from the profits of Greek government bonds, assigned to the EFSF, then, the EFSF will be able to distributable profits from, in some particular way, be transferred to the Greek government, reducing the debt burden of the Greek government.

事實上,大家只要想深一層,現時歐洲金融的局面:已經不是希臘政府主動地要求救助。
實際是:歐元區內,各位老大哥,在顧全大局的前提下,他們都認為,眼前這一位「落難的兄弟」,不得不去拯救而已。
讀者應該明白到:希臘以至歐洲債務危機,並非在短時期,能夠解決得了。

In fact, as long as the reader to further think about the current financial situation in Europe: Europe’s financial predicament, not the Greek government take the initiative to demand relief.
The actual situation is: the euro zone, the euro zone big brother, under the premise of the overall situation, they believe that the front of “a distressed brother” had to save it.
The reader should understand: the debt crisis in Greece and Europe, not in a short period of time, solving the problems.

我們應該明白:在歐洲債務前景,尚未明朗之前,歐洲貨幣,只適宜沽售,不適宜中、長期持有,使用小量資金,跟隨消息炒作,但是,謹記利用分析工具,例如:黃金分割比率。當遇到不理性的市場突變時,止蝕離開市場,緊記保存實力。

We should understand that: before the European debt outlook remains uncertain, the European currency, is only suitable for selling, is not appropriate in the long-term holding, use a small amount of funding to follow the news hype, but bear in mind that the use of analytical tools, such as: the golden ratio. When encountered irrational market mutation, the stop-loss out of the market, bear in mind the preservation of strength.

其實,讀者們值得留意是:希臘政府會怎樣實施方案,才是問題癥結所在。希臘全國,示威抗議活動,不斷升溫,在剛過去的周末,已經有六位內閣官員,因為不滿意緊縮方案的內容,他們覺得憤怒而請辭,充份反映出,管治希臘政府的官員,目前統治的理念,有如一盤散沙。

In fact, readers are worth noting: the Greek government will be how to implement the program, is the crux of the problem. Greece, the country, protests, continues to heat up, this past weekend, has six Cabinet officials are not satisfied with the contents of the austerity program, they feel anger and resignation, which fully reflects the governance of the Greek government officials, the concept of the rule, like disunity.

雖然,希臘政府理應可以,順利獲得1,300億歐元的貸款。但是,短期之內,希臘仍然有很多潛在的金融風險。第一方面:希臘政府與私營機構債權人的角力,仍然未能得出結果。私營機構的債權人,可以選擇,拒絕接受,希臘政府的換債協議,而取得CDS的賠償。

Although the Greek government should be able to smoothly get a loan of 1,300 million euros. But in the short run, Greece still has a lot of potential financial risks. The first aspect: the Greek government and the private sector creditors, wrestling, still unable to the outcome. Private sector creditors can choose to refuse to accept, the Greek government for debt agreement, while taking CDS compensation.

第二方面:希臘人民的抗議活動,幾乎窒息了國家的經濟動力,目前的希臘政府領袖,已經束手無策。領袖們,怎麼辦?怎麼辦?

The second aspect: the protests of the Greek people, almost choked the country’s economic power, the current leader of the Greek government has been helpless. Leaders, how to do? How to do will be successful?

最後,請親愛的讀者們容許我,再一次使用一句中國的諺語,作為本期論述的結尾。

Finally, all my dear readers, allow me to once again use a Chinese proverb, as the end of the current discourse.
「家有二千,每日二錢,全無生計,用得幾年」?

“Two thousand dollars of savings, spent two dollars a day, if there is no source of income, of $ 2,000 is available on how many days?”

10 筆者,進入外匯市場,進行投機買賣的理據:
讀者,如果理念與筆者相同的話,不妨考慮:澳洲元兌日本貨幣,作為套息交易:選擇之一。

10 The author, enter the foreign exchange market, the rationale for the speculation:
The reader, if the ideas and the same author’s, and may wish to consider: Australian dollar against the Japanese currency as a carry trade: one of the options.

14-02-2012日本中央銀行宣佈:維持基準利率在0至0.1厘。但是,出乎意外地,額外增加購買資產規模:高達1,280億美元,並且,同時設定通脹目標為1%。

14-02-2012 Japan’s central bank announced: to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0 to 0.1%. However, unexpectedly, the additional purchase of asset size: U.S. $ 128 billion, and at the same time set the inflation target of 1%.

值得讀者留意的是:日本中央銀行的舉措;英倫銀行(BOE)增加購買國債預算規模,增加到至3,250億。踏進2012年,各個國家中央銀行,已經為大量印刷鈔票,展開序幕。

Readers should pay attention to are: Japan’s central bank initiatives; the Bank of England (BOE) to increase the size of the purchase of government bonds budget increased to $ 32.5 billion. Step into 2012, each national central bank, has a large number of printing money, was kicked off.

各個國家中央銀行,爭先恐後以不同形式,增加貨幣供應及流動性現金,環球的經濟情況,必定會再經歷多一次,現鈔貶值浪潮;商品市場以至實體資產價值,大幅度升值的機會,將會增加。

The various national central banks vie with each other in different forms, increase the money supply and liquidity of cash, the global economic situation, will certainly go through one more cash depreciation of the wave; commodity markets as well as the value of physical assets, a significant appreciation of the opportunity will be increase.

金融市場的波動,在風高浪急的情況下,資金的流向,已經成為:選擇投資、分析投資的重要功課之一,讀者們,必須深入研究。

Volatility of financial markets, in the case of high wind and waves, the flow of funds, has become: the choice of investments, analysis of investment, one of the important lessons, readers must examine.

若然,如果我們展望未來幾年,認定:環球經濟增長速度,仍然緩慢的話。但是,各個國家的中央銀行又繼續印刷鈔票的話,在貨幣不斷增加這段期間,以低息貨幣與高息貨幣之間作套息交易,將會是金融市場投資主流之一。

If so, if we look ahead to the next few years, finds that: global economic growth rate is still slow. However, each country’s central bank to continue to print money in the currency increasing during this period, the low interest rate currency and high interest rate currencies, the carry trade, will be one of the mainstream financial markets and investment.

下期預告:
希臘政府接受了貸款,真的能夠帶領希臘人民,走上幸福的日子嗎?

Next Issue:

The Greek government accepted the loan and can really lead the Greek people, onto the happy days?

筆者真的盼望,能夠有機會面見希臘的官員,向他們提出一些膚淺的意見。

I really hope to have the opportunity to meet with Greek officials, presented to them, some superficial opinions.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

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