(Chapter 18)Global banks are deleveraging to implement the policy, explain to investors what?


(Chapter 18)Global banks are deleveraging to implement the policy, explain to investors what?.

(Chapter 18)Global banks are deleveraging to implement the policy, explain to investors what?
(一)「槓桿化」的定義:
所謂「槓桿化」簡單的說來,就是:某一個人,他拿出1塊錢,但是,他作出的投資額度,卻超過本錢數倍的投資。

(1)"Leverage" of the definition:

The so-called “leverage" Simply put, that is: an individual, he took out a dollar, but the amount of investment he made, but several times more than capital investment.

而「去槓桿化」指的就是:減少使用金融槓桿的過程。

The “deleveraging" refers to: reduce the use of financial leverage in the process.

銀行或金融機構,把通過各種方式或工具借入的款項,退還給放貸者的行政措施。

Banks or financial institutions to borrow through a variety of methods or tools of money, returned to the lender’s administrative measures.

個別的銀行或金融機構執行「去杠杆化」政策,會對金融市場和經濟,產生重大深遠的惡劣影響。

Individual banks or financial institutions to implement “deleveraging" policy, will the financial markets and economy have a significant adverse impact far-reaching.

假使,整個金融市場,都進入這個進程,大部分金融機構或投資者,都會被迫或主動的,把過去採用杠杆方式,借入的金錢,回吐出來,那麼,這些影響,顯然是不容忽視。

If the entire financial market, have entered the process, most financial institutions or investors will be forced or voluntary, and the way past the use of leverage, borrowing money, taking out, then these effects, obviously cannot be ignored.

有一些學者認為,如果這股風潮蔓延,那麼,原先支持金融市場的大量複雜的衍生商品組合,杠杆放大的投資工具,會被直接或間接摧毀。

Some scholars believe that if this trend spread, then, the original support a large number of complex financial markets, a combination of derivatives, leverage magnified investment tools will be directly or indirectly destroy.

當金融市場的,衍生工具市場萎縮,相關的行業,例如股票、商品、地產等行業,便會遭受重創,金融市場現金的流動性,便會大幅縮減,導致經濟衰退 。

When the financial markets, derivatives markets shrinking, related industries, such as equities, commodities, real estate and other industries will suffer heavy losses, the cash liquidity of financial markets will be substantially reduced, leading to economic recession.

甚至有機構投資者認為,美國即將進入大規模去杠杆化的過程,這種影響將逐步向實體經濟擴散,導致美國陷入衰退,整個經濟調整期或許需要十年。
Even institutional investors believe that the U.S. is about to enter the massive deleveraging process, this effect will gradually spread to the real economy, leading the U.S. into recession, the economic adjustment period may take a decade.

「去杠杆化」會導致什麼 嚴重後果?

“Deleveraging" will lead to any serious consequences?

「去杠杆化」將會如何影響,當前的商品市場和資本市場呢?

“Deleveraging" will impact the current commodity markets and capital markets?

(二)甚麼叫「杠杆融資」?

「杠杆融資」是指:金融機構總部,以某一成員企業的名義及其資產,作為抵押進行負債融資,然後,借助財務公司或通過其他融資步驟,將所籌措的債務資金,提供給母公司或其他成員企業使用。

(2)What is “leveraged finance"?

“Leveraged Finance" means: the headquarters of financial institutions, to name a member company, its assets, as collateral for debt financing, then, with the finance company or other financial steps to the raising of debt capital available to parent or other members of the business use.

而「去杠杆化」是指:解除「杠杆融資」的操作,把借入的金錢,退還給放貸的金融機構。
The “deleveraging" means: remove “leveraged finance" operations, to borrow money, return to the lending financial institutions.

(三)經濟學的範疇上是什麼意思?

通俗地說,「去杠杆化」就是一間公司或個人,減少使用金融杠杆的頻率和幅度,把原先通過各種方式借入的金錢,退還給放貸機構,這種情況,逐漸形成一種經濟潮流。

(3)Areas of economics, “deleveraging" means what?

In layman’s terms, “deleveraging" is a company or individual, the use of financial leverage to reduce the frequency and amplitude, the original money borrowed through a variety of ways, returned to the lending institution, this situation has gradually formed an economic trend.

這種潮流,對社會經濟的影響極大,甚至,可能導致流動性資金枯竭,甚至,使金融危機不斷加深和擴大。

This trend, a great economic impact on society, and even may lead to liquidity dried up, even, so that the financial crisis continues to deepen and expand.

一般人認為,「去杠杆化」包括五個階段,即金融產品的去杠杆化、金融機構的去杠杆化、投資者的去杠杆化、消費者的去杠杆化、去全球化(貿易保護主義盛行)。

Most people think, “deleveraging" consists of five stages, namely, the deleveraging of financial products, financial institutions deleveraging, investor deleveraging, consumer deleveraging, de-globalization (trade protectionism .)

當然,這五個階段也並非涇渭分明,常常又有時間和空間上的交集。

Of course, this is not entirely different in five stages, often have time and space of the intersection.

讓我詳細再一次說一說,經濟學裡「杠杆」包含些甚麼意義。

Let me once again to talk about economics in the “leverage" contains something meaningful.

例如:你有1W塊錢做投資,(假設:每1W可以賺到1W或者虧掉1W),如果錢都是你自己的,那就是沒有杠杆原素。

For example: you have a 1W dollars to invest, (assumption: each1W can make 1W or lose money 1W), if money is your own, that is not leveraged elements.

如果5000是借來的,就是用了杠杆。

If 5000 is borrowed, that is to use a lever.

在杠杆的情況下,假設用5000+5000本金賺到了1W,本金中5000的借款付了500的利息(假設),那麼你還了借款以後,淨賺了2W-1W-500=9500

In the case of leverage, assuming that the principal with 5000 +5000 make the 1W, borrowers pay principal in 5000, 500 of interest (assumed), then you have a loan after a net profit of 2W-1W-500 = 9500.

但是,如果你不用杠杆,就拿自己的5000去賺了5000,那你的收益就少了9500-5000=4500。

But if you do not have leverage, take only the principal amount of 5000 to earn 5,000, then your income, less the 9500-5000 = 4500.

但是,假設:投資的結果,並沒有賺進金錢,相反是虧錢,在用了杠杆的情況下,虧損也會放大。

However, the assumptions: investment results, and no earned money, the opposite is losing money, in the case of using the leverage, the loss will be magnified.

(四)銀行業 「去杠杆化」是什麼意思?

銀行業「去杠杆化」的意思就是:銀行減少,對投資客人的支撐。

(4)Banking sector “deleveraging" mean what?

Banking sector “deleveraging" means: the bank will reduce the investment to support the guests.

因為我們知道,投機客人,利用銀行的杠杆作用特別多,例如:投資者如果不打算利用銀行的貸款購買房子,他要買100萬塊錢的房子,假設房子的價格是100萬,投資者最多只能買一間屋。

Because we know speculators guests, use the leverage of banks particularly, for example: investors, if he do not intend to use bank loans to buy houses, investors, one million dollars to buy a house, assuming the house price is 100 million, investment who can only buy a house.

如果用銀行的資金,進行杠杆方式,買入房屋,把首期付款,降低到10%。那麼價值100萬的房屋,10萬塊錢就能購買一間房屋。你就可以買十間屋,投機客人,把買入房子的投資額,擴大10倍,也就是說:假如你的投機,本來可以賺進10%,但是,進行杠杆化投機,你就可以賺100%。假如,你可以賺20%,就可以賺200%之多。

If using bank funds to leverage resources, buying houses, the down payment reduced to 10%. Then the value of 1 million houses, 100,000 dollars can buy a house. You can buy ten houses, speculation guests to purchase the investment house, to expand 10-fold, that is: if your speculation, could have earned 10%, however, the leveraged speculation, you can earn 100 percent. If you can earn 20%, you can earn as much as 200%.

「去杠杆化」這一個辭語,如今正成為全球基金經理和經濟學者口中的熱門詞彙。

“Deleveraging" This is a speech language, and now is becoming a global fund manager and economists, the mouth of the popular vocabulary.

從南極至北極,從華爾街到香港,從美國聯儲局主席到頂級的對沖基金操盤者,嘴裡念叨的,都是這個名詞,以及,隱藏在它背後的,那個風雨飄搖、步步驚心的金融市場。

From the Antarctic to the Arctic, from Wall Street to Hong Kong from the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman to the top of the hedge fund manipulator, mouth talking about, are the term, and, hidden behind it, that precarious, startling step by step the financial markets.

在其中一些人心目中,「去杠杆化」肯定會是未來時代的主題詞,它揭示出全球金融市場的重大變化,相對過去三十年,世界金融發展作出嶄新的修正。

In the minds of some people, “deleveraging" is sure to be the next era of keyword, it reveals significant changes in global financial markets, the relative in the past three decades, the world’s financial development, make new amendments.

這股浩浩蕩蕩席捲全球的“去杠杆化”風潮,究竟會給世界經濟和市場帶來哪些影響呢?在全球化背景下,內地投資者該如何應對呢?

金融界的人,把原先利用各種方式,例如:房屋貸款、汽車貸款、信用卡、衍生性金融產品等渠道,借入的金錢,退還給借出款項的金融機構。

Financial people, the original use of a variety of ways, such as: housing loans, car loans, credit cards, derivative financial products and other channels, borrow money, return to lending money to financial institutions.

槓桿化被認為是:次貸危機發生的主要原因,因為,根據資料顯示,有一些金融機構,利用槓桿比例投機,竟然高達本來資金60倍之多。

Leverage is considered to be: the main reason for the subprime mortgage crisis, because, according to statistics, there are some financial institutions, the proportion of speculative leverage, funds have been as high as 60 times.

當這些金融機構,發生巨額虧損之後,便逐步縮減風險資產規模,而風險資產規模縮減的過程,就被稱為「去槓桿化」。

When these financial institutions, the occurrence of huge losses, they will gradually reduce the risk of asset size, asset size and risk reduction process is called deleveraging.

(五)歐美的「去槓桿化」,主要有三方面:

(5) European and American market called “deleveraging", there are three main areas:

(甲) 信貸市場的規則改變了,有些企業,以前能以企業的資產,向金融市場發行債券,現在,雖然提供高昂的利息,也難於找到能夠融資的市場;

(A) changed the rules of the credit market, some companies, previously to the assets of the enterprise, the financial markets, bonds, and now, while providing high interest rates, but also difficult to find, to the financing market;

(乙) 總數約8萬億美元的「證券化市場」仍未復蘇,嚴重影響美國消費者的信貸總額;

(B) The total number of about 8 trillion dollar securitization market has not yet to recover, seriously affect the total amount of U.S. consumer credit;

(丙) 全球各個國家,都正在討論增加金融機構的法定資本比例,減低金融機構的槓桿比例,這是一個長遠的結構性改變。

(C) All countries are being discussed to increase the financial institutions, statutory capital ratio, to reduce the financial institutions, leverage ratio, which is a long-term structural change.

(六)銀行或金融機構實施「去杠杆化」,會導致什麼嚴峻的後果?

(6) Bank or financial institution, “deleveraging", would lead to what serious consequences?

「去杠杆化」影響當前的商品和資本市場:

“Deleveraging" affect current commodity and capital markets:

「去杠杆化」的第一階段:

“Deleveraging" of the first stage:

「去杠杆化」是從「金融產品的去杠杆化」開始的。

“Deleveraging" from the “deleveraging of financial products," began.

金融繁榮時期,在眾多證券化的資產基礎上,產生了大量衍生結構性金融產品。例如CDO、CDS等。這就是「金融產品的杠杆化」。

Financial boom in the number of securities on the basis of the assets, resulting in a large number of derivative structured financial products. For example,CDO, CDS, etc. This is the “leveraged financial products."

當美國房地產價格開始向下趨勢,房屋貸款違約率上升時,其中的影響,首先體現在,各種建立在次級按揭房屋貸款基礎上的衍生產品的價格上。

When the downward trend in U.S. real estate prices, mortgage default rates rise, which influence is reflected in the various built on subprime mortgage loans on the basis of housing, derivatives prices.

這是由於杠杆化操作,衍生的產品,能夠放大內在資產價值的變化。「金融產品的去杠杆化」就是此類衍生性金融產品,市場灰飛煙滅的過程。

This is due to operating leverage, derivative products, can amplify the intrinsic value of assets. “Deleveraging of financial products" is the type of derivative financial products, market wiped out the process.

「去杠杆化」的第二階段:

“Deleveraging" of the second stage:

金融機構的「去杠杆化」

Financial institutions, “deleveraging"

過去一段較長時間以來,不僅投資銀行,就連商業銀行,都購買了大量杠杆化的金融產品。

Over a longer period of time, not just investment banks, commercial banks even have to buy a large number of leveraged financial products.

這些金融機構的資金來源,包括商業銀行吸收的存款和投資銀行在短期資金市場,拆借回來的現金,例如:債券票據上的融資。由於利率偏低和充裕的流動性現金,大幅度降低了借貸成本。因此,大多數的金融機構,都擁有大量流動現金。

These financial institutions, funding sources including commercial banks to absorb the short-term deposits and investment banks in capital markets, lending cash back, for example: notes on the bond financing. As low interest rates and ample liquidity in cash, a significant reduction in the cost of borrowing, therefore, most financial institutions have a lot of cash flow.

金融機構,把大量借貸回來的現金,投資在金融衍生產品上,由於各種類別的商品,在金融市場的上升趨勢逆轉,結果,造成了巨大損失,現實迫使銀行,須要減記不良資產,並且大幅增加,銀行整體資產負債表對風險類資產的暴露。

Financial institutions, a large amount of cash back loans, investments in financial derivatives, due to various types of commodities, the upward trend in the financial markets reversed the result, causing huge losses, reality forced the banks need to write down bad assets, and significantly increase the bank’s overall balance sheet risk exposure to asset classes.

這就是金融機構的「去杠杆化」。

This is the financial institutions, “deleveraging."

「去杠杆化」的第三階段——投資者的「去杠杆化」:

“Deleveraging" of the third stage – the investors, “deleveraging":

金融機構的「去杠杆化」嚴重削弱了金融機構的仲介功能。

Financial institutions, “deleveraging", seriously weakened the intermediary function of financial institutions.

在金融市場上,具體表現在信貸成本大幅上升,借貸條件變得異常苛刻。

In the financial markets, in particular in credit costs have risen sharply, credit conditions become very harsh.

令到那些長期依賴金融機構,獲得部分短期資金來源的各類機構投資者(例如:對沖基金),缺少了現金的來源,因此,只能出售其所持有的資產(尤其是風險較高的資產)來保持足夠的現金儲存,以準備不時之需(例如:投資者贖回基金的浪潮)。

So to those who rely on financial institutions, access to some types of short-term sources of funds of institutional investors (for example: hedge funds), the lack of a source of cash, therefore, can only sell its holdings of assets (particularly high-risk assets) in order to keep enough cash saved to prepare for contingencies (for example: the wave of investor redemptions).

「去杠杆化」的第四階段 —消費者的「 去杠杆化」。

“Deleveraging" of the fourth stage – the consumer’s “deleveraging."

當消費者加入出售資產行列,便會加劇了各類資產(尤其是房屋、地產)價格的下跌,並且產生,負減的財富效應。歐、美國家都是以家庭為單位,代表消費者,他們所能做的唯一選擇,就是增加淨儲蓄,以緩解家庭淨財富的萎縮,這些消費者,只能通過減少舉債或提高儲蓄率來實現家庭財政的平衡。這一種以消費的放緩為代價的增加儲蓄,反過來,會進一步加劇了,實體經濟基本面,增加經濟惡化的速度和陷入消費行業的衰退。

Consumers join the ranks of the sale of assets, adding all kinds of assets (particularly housing, real estate) prices fell, and produced by the negative wealth effect. European and American countries are the family unit, on behalf of consumers, the only choice they can do, is to increase the net savings net household wealth to alleviate the decline, these consumers can only be improved by reducing debt or saving rate to achieve financial balance of the family. This kind of slowdown in consumption at the expense of increased savings, in turn, will further exacerbate the real economy fundamentals, increasing the rate of deterioration and decline into the consumer industry.

「去杠杆化」的第五階段:

“Deleveraging" of the fifth stage:

面臨經濟基本面的惡化,各國政府紛紛出台,刺激經濟的政策方案。政策的效果不僅是:政府主導的支出規模,而且,也取決於其「乘數效應」的大小。如果要放大「乘數效應」,只有要求有關政府的支出,儘量用於購買在本國製造的產品。

Facing the deterioration of economic fundamentals, governments have introduced policy options to stimulate the economy. Effect of the policy is not only: the scale of government-led spending, but also depends on its “multiplier effect" in size. If you want to enlarge the “multiplier effect", and only require the government spending, as much as possible for the purchase of products manufactured in the country.

否則,刺激效應,會通過進口,而「漏出」到本國經濟系統之外,不能使本國經濟得到益處。這就為貿易保護主義,提供了堂而皇之的理由。

Otherwise, the stimulating effect, through imports, and the “leakage" to the country’s economic system, but cannot make their own economic benefit this way, it is trade protectionism, the glamorous reasons.

各國政府推行「自己照顧自己」的結果,就是「全球經濟的去杠杆化」,或稱之為「去全球化」。

Governments in implementing the “take care of himself “, the result is “global deleveraging", or so-called “de-globalization."

金融海嘯肆虐到全球各個地域,所到之處,滿目瘡痍。雖然全球各國政府用盡辦法,進行金融改革,希望災後重建。

To the Financial tsunami ravaged regions around the world, wherever it went, devastated. While governments around the world means exhausted, for financial reforms in the hope reconstruction.

全球最龐大的債券基金公司PIMCO,投資天王葛洛斯說:世界將進入一種「新常態」。

The world’s largest bond fund PIMCO, Bill Gross investment King said: the world will enter a “new normal."

他的意思是:金融市場上,銀行「去槓桿化」的時代已經來臨,因為政府監管銀行的措施,逐漸趨於嚴謹。

What he means is: financial markets, banks’ deleveraging, “the time has come, because the government’s measures to control banks, becoming more and more strict.

世界經濟火車頭,美國國內的消費力,也逐漸向下。

The world’s economic locomotive the U.S. domestic consumption, but also gradually downward.

美國為了推動經濟成長,令到國家債台高築,即使,財政尚有盈餘的國家,例如中國等,全力幫助,也難於補足,資金的缺口。

The United States in order to promote economic growth, so that national debt, even though, there are fiscal surplus countries such as China, is dedicated to helping, but also difficult to make up, the funding gap.

美國債券之王比爾•格羅斯的最新觀點是,美國銀行的「去杠杆化」進程,已經導致美國三大主要資產類別:股票、債券、房地產的價格,整體不斷往下跌。

U.S. bond King Bill Gross’s latest view is that Bank of America’s “deleveraging" process, has led to three major U.S. asset classes: stocks, bonds, real estate prices continue to fall overall.

格羅斯認為,全球金融市場,目前處於「去杠杆化」的過程中,導致大多數資產的價格,出現下降趨勢,例如:黃金、鑽石、穀物這樣的東西。

Gross believes that the global financial markets, is currently in a “deleveraging" process, resulting in most of the asset prices are declining, such as: gold, diamonds, grains such things.

格羅斯表示,一旦進入去杠杆化進程,包括風險利差、流動性利差、市場波動水準、乃至期貨,都會上升。

Gross said:Once the deleveraging process, including risk spreads, liquidity spreads, volatility levels, as well as futures will rise.

資產價格將因此受到衝擊。

Asset prices will therefore be affected.

而且,個進程將不是單向的,而是互相影響、彼此加強的。

Moreover, a process will not be one-way, but influence each other and mutually reinforcing.

例如,投資者,當意識到,次貸風險將會出現時,投資者,會解除在次級債券上的投資杠杆時,那些和這些債券,有套利關係的其他債券,或持有這些債券的其他投資者,以及他們持有的其他品種債券,都會遭受嚴重影響。

For example, investors, when realized, will be the sub-prime risk, investors will be lifted on the investment in the secondary bond leverage, those and these bonds are arbitrage bonds of the other, or hold these bonds of other investors, as well as other varieties bonds they hold, will suffer severely affected.

讓我寄語投資者:必須在金融海嘯爆破之前,裝備應對的技巧。咬緊牙關,努力撐過,黎明前的黑暗。

I message to investors: Prior to the financial tsunami blasting, equipment response skills. Get through the Pre-dawn darkness.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

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(Chapter 18)Global banks are deleveraging to implement the policy, explain to investors what?


(第18章)全球銀行都實行的「去槓桿化政策」,向投資者說明了甚麼?
(一)「槓桿化」的定義:
所謂「槓桿化」簡單的說來,就是:某一個人,他拿出1塊錢,但是,他作出的投資額度,卻超過本錢數倍的投資。

(1)"Leverage" of the definition:

The so-called “leverage" Simply put, that is: an individual, he took out a dollar, but the amount of investment he made, but several times more than capital investment.

而「去槓桿化」指的就是:減少使用金融槓桿的過程。

The “deleveraging" refers to: reduce the use of financial leverage in the process.

銀行或金融機構,把通過各種方式或工具借入的款項,退還給放貸者的行政措施。

Banks or financial institutions to borrow through a variety of methods or tools of money, returned to the lender’s administrative measures.

個別的銀行或金融機構執行「去杠杆化」政策,會對金融市場和經濟,產生重大深遠的惡劣影響。

Individual banks or financial institutions to implement “deleveraging" policy, will the financial markets and economy have a significant adverse impact far-reaching.

假使,整個金融市場,都進入這個進程,大部分金融機構或投資者,都會被迫或主動的,把過去採用杠杆方式,借入的金錢,回吐出來,那麼,這些影響,顯然是不容忽視。

If the entire financial market, have entered the process, most financial institutions or investors will be forced or voluntary, and the way past the use of leverage, borrowing money, taking out, then these effects, obviously cannot be ignored.

有一些學者認為,如果這股風潮蔓延,那麼,原先支持金融市場的大量複雜的衍生商品組合,杠杆放大的投資工具,會被直接或間接摧毀。

Some scholars believe that if this trend spread, then, the original support a large number of complex financial markets, a combination of derivatives, leverage magnified investment tools will be directly or indirectly destroy.

當金融市場的,衍生工具市場萎縮,相關的行業,例如股票、商品、地產等行業,便會遭受重創,金融市場現金的流動性,便會大幅縮減,導致經濟衰退 。

When the financial markets, derivatives markets shrinking, related industries, such as equities, commodities, real estate and other industries will suffer heavy losses, the cash liquidity of financial markets will be substantially reduced, leading to economic recession.

甚至有機構投資者認為,美國即將進入大規模去杠杆化的過程,這種影響將逐步向實體經濟擴散,導致美國陷入衰退,整個經濟調整期或許需要十年。
Even institutional investors believe that the U.S. is about to enter the massive deleveraging process, this effect will gradually spread to the real economy, leading the U.S. into recession, the economic adjustment period may take a decade.

「去杠杆化」會導致什麼 嚴重後果?

“Deleveraging" will lead to any serious consequences?

「去杠杆化」將會如何影響,當前的商品市場和資本市場呢?

“Deleveraging" will impact the current commodity markets and capital markets?

(二)甚麼叫「杠杆融資」?

「杠杆融資」是指:金融機構總部,以某一成員企業的名義及其資產,作為抵押進行負債融資,然後,借助財務公司或通過其他融資步驟,將所籌措的債務資金,提供給母公司或其他成員企業使用。

(2)What is “leveraged finance"?

“Leveraged Finance" means: the headquarters of financial institutions, to name a member company, its assets, as collateral for debt financing, then, with the finance company or other financial steps to the raising of debt capital available to parent or other members of the business use.

而「去杠杆化」是指:解除「杠杆融資」的操作,把借入的金錢,退還給放貸的金融機構。
The “deleveraging" means: remove “leveraged finance" operations, to borrow money, return to the lending financial institutions.

(三)經濟學的範疇上是什麼意思?

通俗地說,「去杠杆化」就是一間公司或個人,減少使用金融杠杆的頻率和幅度,把原先通過各種方式借入的金錢,退還給放貸機構,這種情況,逐漸形成一種經濟潮流。

(3)Areas of economics, “deleveraging" means what?

In layman’s terms, “deleveraging" is a company or individual, the use of financial leverage to reduce the frequency and amplitude, the original money borrowed through a variety of ways, returned to the lending institution, this situation has gradually formed an economic trend.

這種潮流,對社會經濟的影響極大,甚至,可能導致流動性資金枯竭,甚至,使金融危機不斷加深和擴大。

This trend, a great economic impact on society, and even may lead to liquidity dried up, even, so that the financial crisis continues to deepen and expand.

一般人認為,「去杠杆化」包括五個階段,即金融產品的去杠杆化、金融機構的去杠杆化、投資者的去杠杆化、消費者的去杠杆化、去全球化(貿易保護主義盛行)。

Most people think, “deleveraging" consists of five stages, namely, the deleveraging of financial products, financial institutions deleveraging, investor deleveraging, consumer deleveraging, de-globalization (trade protectionism .)

當然,這五個階段也並非涇渭分明,常常又有時間和空間上的交集。

Of course, this is not entirely different in five stages, often have time and space of the intersection.

讓我詳細再一次說一說,經濟學裡「杠杆」包含些甚麼意義。

Let me once again to talk about economics in the “leverage" contains something meaningful.

例如:你有1W塊錢做投資,(假設:每1W可以賺到1W或者虧掉1W),如果錢都是你自己的,那就是沒有杠杆原素。

For example: you have a 1W dollars to invest, (assumption: each1W can make 1W or lose money 1W), if money is your own, that is not leveraged elements.

如果5000是借來的,就是用了杠杆。

If 5000 is borrowed, that is to use a lever.

在杠杆的情況下,假設用5000+5000本金賺到了1W,本金中5000的借款付了500的利息(假設),那麼你還了借款以後,淨賺了2W-1W-500=9500

In the case of leverage, assuming that the principal with 5000 +5000 make the 1W, borrowers pay principal in 5000, 500 of interest (assumed), then you have a loan after a net profit of 2W-1W-500 = 9500.

但是,如果你不用杠杆,就拿自己的5000去賺了5000,那你的收益就少了9500-5000=4500。

But if you do not have leverage, take only the principal amount of 5000 to earn 5,000, then your income, less the 9500-5000 = 4500.

但是,假設:投資的結果,並沒有賺進金錢,相反是虧錢,在用了杠杆的情況下,虧損也會放大。

However, the assumptions: investment results, and no earned money, the opposite is losing money, in the case of using the leverage, the loss will be magnified.

(四)銀行業 「去杠杆化」是什麼意思?

銀行業「去杠杆化」的意思就是:銀行減少,對投資客人的支撐。

(4)Banking sector “deleveraging" mean what?

Banking sector “deleveraging" means: the bank will reduce the investment to support the guests.

因為我們知道,投機客人,利用銀行的杠杆作用特別多,例如:投資者如果不打算利用銀行的貸款購買房子,他要買100萬塊錢的房子,假設房子的價格是100萬,投資者最多只能買一間屋。

Because we know speculators guests, use the leverage of banks particularly, for example: investors, if he do not intend to use bank loans to buy houses, investors, one million dollars to buy a house, assuming the house price is 100 million, investment who can only buy a house.

如果用銀行的資金,進行杠杆方式,買入房屋,把首期付款,降低到10%。那麼價值100萬的房屋,10萬塊錢就能購買一間房屋。你就可以買十間屋,投機客人,把買入房子的投資額,擴大10倍,也就是說:假如你的投機,本來可以賺進10%,但是,進行杠杆化投機,你就可以賺100%。假如,你可以賺20%,就可以賺200%之多。

If using bank funds to leverage resources, buying houses, the down payment reduced to 10%. Then the value of 1 million houses, 100,000 dollars can buy a house. You can buy ten houses, speculation guests to purchase the investment house, to expand 10-fold, that is: if your speculation, could have earned 10%, however, the leveraged speculation, you can earn 100 percent. If you can earn 20%, you can earn as much as 200%.

「去杠杆化」這一個辭語,如今正成為全球基金經理和經濟學者口中的熱門詞彙。

“Deleveraging" This is a speech language, and now is becoming a global fund manager and economists, the mouth of the popular vocabulary.

從南極至北極,從華爾街到香港,從美國聯儲局主席到頂級的對沖基金操盤者,嘴裡念叨的,都是這個名詞,以及,隱藏在它背後的,那個風雨飄搖、步步驚心的金融市場。

From the Antarctic to the Arctic, from Wall Street to Hong Kong from the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman to the top of the hedge fund manipulator, mouth talking about, are the term, and, hidden behind it, that precarious, startling step by step the financial markets.

在其中一些人心目中,「去杠杆化」肯定會是未來時代的主題詞,它揭示出全球金融市場的重大變化,相對過去三十年,世界金融發展作出嶄新的修正。

In the minds of some people, “deleveraging" is sure to be the next era of keyword, it reveals significant changes in global financial markets, the relative in the past three decades, the world’s financial development, make new amendments.

這股浩浩蕩蕩席捲全球的“去杠杆化”風潮,究竟會給世界經濟和市場帶來哪些影響呢?在全球化背景下,內地投資者該如何應對呢?

金融界的人,把原先利用各種方式,例如:房屋貸款、汽車貸款、信用卡、衍生性金融產品等渠道,借入的金錢,退還給借出款項的金融機構。

Financial people, the original use of a variety of ways, such as: housing loans, car loans, credit cards, derivative financial products and other channels, borrow money, return to lending money to financial institutions.

槓桿化被認為是:次貸危機發生的主要原因,因為,根據資料顯示,有一些金融機構,利用槓桿比例投機,竟然高達本來資金60倍之多。

Leverage is considered to be: the main reason for the subprime mortgage crisis, because, according to statistics, there are some financial institutions, the proportion of speculative leverage, funds have been as high as 60 times.

當這些金融機構,發生巨額虧損之後,便逐步縮減風險資產規模,而風險資產規模縮減的過程,就被稱為「去槓桿化」。

When these financial institutions, the occurrence of huge losses, they will gradually reduce the risk of asset size, asset size and risk reduction process is called deleveraging.

(五)歐美的「去槓桿化」,主要有三方面:

(5) European and American market called “deleveraging", there are three main areas:

(甲) 信貸市場的規則改變了,有些企業,以前能以企業的資產,向金融市場發行債券,現在,雖然提供高昂的利息,也難於找到能夠融資的市場;

(A) changed the rules of the credit market, some companies, previously to the assets of the enterprise, the financial markets, bonds, and now, while providing high interest rates, but also difficult to find, to the financing market;

(乙) 總數約8萬億美元的「證券化市場」仍未復蘇,嚴重影響美國消費者的信貸總額;

(B) The total number of about 8 trillion dollar securitization market has not yet to recover, seriously affect the total amount of U.S. consumer credit;

(丙) 全球各個國家,都正在討論增加金融機構的法定資本比例,減低金融機構的槓桿比例,這是一個長遠的結構性改變。

(C) All countries are being discussed to increase the financial institutions, statutory capital ratio, to reduce the financial institutions, leverage ratio, which is a long-term structural change.

(六)銀行或金融機構實施「去杠杆化」,會導致什麼嚴峻的後果?

(6) Bank or financial institution, “deleveraging", would lead to what serious consequences?

「去杠杆化」影響當前的商品和資本市場:

“Deleveraging" affect current commodity and capital markets:

「去杠杆化」的第一階段:

“Deleveraging" of the first stage:

「去杠杆化」是從「金融產品的去杠杆化」開始的。

“Deleveraging" from the “deleveraging of financial products," began.

金融繁榮時期,在眾多證券化的資產基礎上,產生了大量衍生結構性金融產品。例如CDO、CDS等。這就是「金融產品的杠杆化」。

Financial boom in the number of securities on the basis of the assets, resulting in a large number of derivative structured financial products. For example,CDO, CDS, etc. This is the “leveraged financial products."

當美國房地產價格開始向下趨勢,房屋貸款違約率上升時,其中的影響,首先體現在,各種建立在次級按揭房屋貸款基礎上的衍生產品的價格上。

When the downward trend in U.S. real estate prices, mortgage default rates rise, which influence is reflected in the various built on subprime mortgage loans on the basis of housing, derivatives prices.

這是由於杠杆化操作,衍生的產品,能夠放大內在資產價值的變化。「金融產品的去杠杆化」就是此類衍生性金融產品,市場灰飛煙滅的過程。

This is due to operating leverage, derivative products, can amplify the intrinsic value of assets. “Deleveraging of financial products" is the type of derivative financial products, market wiped out the process.

「去杠杆化」的第二階段:

“Deleveraging" of the second stage:

金融機構的「去杠杆化」

Financial institutions, “deleveraging"

過去一段較長時間以來,不僅投資銀行,就連商業銀行,都購買了大量杠杆化的金融產品。

Over a longer period of time, not just investment banks, commercial banks even have to buy a large number of leveraged financial products.

這些金融機構的資金來源,包括商業銀行吸收的存款和投資銀行在短期資金市場,拆借回來的現金,例如:債券票據上的融資。由於利率偏低和充裕的流動性現金,大幅度降低了借貸成本。因此,大多數的金融機構,都擁有大量流動現金。

These financial institutions, funding sources including commercial banks to absorb the short-term deposits and investment banks in capital markets, lending cash back, for example: notes on the bond financing. As low interest rates and ample liquidity in cash, a significant reduction in the cost of borrowing, therefore, most financial institutions have a lot of cash flow.

金融機構,把大量借貸回來的現金,投資在金融衍生產品上,由於各種類別的商品,在金融市場的上升趨勢逆轉,結果,造成了巨大損失,現實迫使銀行,須要減記不良資產,並且大幅增加,銀行整體資產負債表對風險類資產的暴露。

Financial institutions, a large amount of cash back loans, investments in financial derivatives, due to various types of commodities, the upward trend in the financial markets reversed the result, causing huge losses, reality forced the banks need to write down bad assets, and significantly increase the bank’s overall balance sheet risk exposure to asset classes.

這就是金融機構的「去杠杆化」。

This is the financial institutions, “deleveraging."

「去杠杆化」的第三階段——投資者的「去杠杆化」:

“Deleveraging" of the third stage – the investors, “deleveraging":

金融機構的「去杠杆化」嚴重削弱了金融機構的仲介功能。

Financial institutions, “deleveraging", seriously weakened the intermediary function of financial institutions.

在金融市場上,具體表現在信貸成本大幅上升,借貸條件變得異常苛刻。

In the financial markets, in particular in credit costs have risen sharply, credit conditions become very harsh.

令到那些長期依賴金融機構,獲得部分短期資金來源的各類機構投資者(例如:對沖基金),缺少了現金的來源,因此,只能出售其所持有的資產(尤其是風險較高的資產)來保持足夠的現金儲存,以準備不時之需(例如:投資者贖回基金的浪潮)。

So to those who rely on financial institutions, access to some types of short-term sources of funds of institutional investors (for example: hedge funds), the lack of a source of cash, therefore, can only sell its holdings of assets (particularly high-risk assets) in order to keep enough cash saved to prepare for contingencies (for example: the wave of investor redemptions).

「去杠杆化」的第四階段 —消費者的「 去杠杆化」。

“Deleveraging" of the fourth stage – the consumer’s “deleveraging."

當消費者加入出售資產行列,便會加劇了各類資產(尤其是房屋、地產)價格的下跌,並且產生,負減的財富效應。歐、美國家都是以家庭為單位,代表消費者,他們所能做的唯一選擇,就是增加淨儲蓄,以緩解家庭淨財富的萎縮,這些消費者,只能通過減少舉債或提高儲蓄率來實現家庭財政的平衡。這一種以消費的放緩為代價的增加儲蓄,反過來,會進一步加劇了,實體經濟基本面,增加經濟惡化的速度和陷入消費行業的衰退。

Consumers join the ranks of the sale of assets, adding all kinds of assets (particularly housing, real estate) prices fell, and produced by the negative wealth effect. European and American countries are the family unit, on behalf of consumers, the only choice they can do, is to increase the net savings net household wealth to alleviate the decline, these consumers can only be improved by reducing debt or saving rate to achieve financial balance of the family. This kind of slowdown in consumption at the expense of increased savings, in turn, will further exacerbate the real economy fundamentals, increasing the rate of deterioration and decline into the consumer industry.

「去杠杆化」的第五階段:

“Deleveraging" of the fifth stage:

面臨經濟基本面的惡化,各國政府紛紛出台,刺激經濟的政策方案。政策的效果不僅是:政府主導的支出規模,而且,也取決於其「乘數效應」的大小。如果要放大「乘數效應」,只有要求有關政府的支出,儘量用於購買在本國製造的產品。

Facing the deterioration of economic fundamentals, governments have introduced policy options to stimulate the economy. Effect of the policy is not only: the scale of government-led spending, but also depends on its “multiplier effect" in size. If you want to enlarge the “multiplier effect", and only require the government spending, as much as possible for the purchase of products manufactured in the country.

否則,刺激效應,會通過進口,而「漏出」到本國經濟系統之外,不能使本國經濟得到益處。這就為貿易保護主義,提供了堂而皇之的理由。

Otherwise, the stimulating effect, through imports, and the “leakage" to the country’s economic system, but cannot make their own economic benefit this way, it is trade protectionism, the glamorous reasons.

各國政府推行「自己照顧自己」的結果,就是「全球經濟的去杠杆化」,或稱之為「去全球化」。

Governments in implementing the “take care of himself “, the result is “global deleveraging", or so-called “de-globalization."

金融海嘯肆虐到全球各個地域,所到之處,滿目瘡痍。雖然全球各國政府用盡辦法,進行金融改革,希望災後重建。

To the Financial tsunami ravaged regions around the world, wherever it went, devastated. While governments around the world means exhausted, for financial reforms in the hope reconstruction.

全球最龐大的債券基金公司PIMCO,投資天王葛洛斯說:世界將進入一種「新常態」。

The world’s largest bond fund PIMCO, Bill Gross investment King said: the world will enter a “new normal."

他的意思是:金融市場上,銀行「去槓桿化」的時代已經來臨,因為政府監管銀行的措施,逐漸趨於嚴謹。

What he means is: financial markets, banks’ deleveraging, “the time has come, because the government’s measures to control banks, becoming more and more strict.

世界經濟火車頭,美國國內的消費力,也逐漸向下。

The world’s economic locomotive the U.S. domestic consumption, but also gradually downward.

美國為了推動經濟成長,令到國家債台高築,即使,財政尚有盈餘的國家,例如中國等,全力幫助,也難於補足,資金的缺口。

The United States in order to promote economic growth, so that national debt, even though, there are fiscal surplus countries such as China, is dedicated to helping, but also difficult to make up, the funding gap.

美國債券之王比爾•格羅斯的最新觀點是,美國銀行的「去杠杆化」進程,已經導致美國三大主要資產類別:股票、債券、房地產的價格,整體不斷往下跌。

U.S. bond King Bill Gross’s latest view is that Bank of America’s “deleveraging" process, has led to three major U.S. asset classes: stocks, bonds, real estate prices continue to fall overall.

格羅斯認為,全球金融市場,目前處於「去杠杆化」的過程中,導致大多數資產的價格,出現下降趨勢,例如:黃金、鑽石、穀物這樣的東西。

Gross believes that the global financial markets, is currently in a “deleveraging" process, resulting in most of the asset prices are declining, such as: gold, diamonds, grains such things.

格羅斯表示,一旦進入去杠杆化進程,包括風險利差、流動性利差、市場波動水準、乃至期貨,都會上升。

Gross said:Once the deleveraging process, including risk spreads, liquidity spreads, volatility levels, as well as futures will rise.

資產價格將因此受到衝擊。

Asset prices will therefore be affected.

而且,個進程將不是單向的,而是互相影響、彼此加強的。

Moreover, a process will not be one-way, but influence each other and mutually reinforcing.

例如,投資者,當意識到,次貸風險將會出現時,投資者,會解除在次級債券上的投資杠杆時,那些和這些債券,有套利關係的其他債券,或持有這些債券的其他投資者,以及他們持有的其他品種債券,都會遭受嚴重影響。

For example, investors, when realized, will be the sub-prime risk, investors will be lifted on the investment in the secondary bond leverage, those and these bonds are arbitrage bonds of the other, or hold these bonds of other investors, as well as other varieties bonds they hold, will suffer severely affected.

讓我寄語投資者:必須在金融海嘯爆破之前,裝備應對的技巧。咬緊牙關,努力撐過,黎明前的黑暗。

I message to investors: Prior to the financial tsunami blasting, equipment response skills. Get through the Pre-dawn darkness.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

(Chapter 17)what operation to carry trade, will it not risk?


(Chapter 17)what operation to carry trade, will it not risk?.

「Uncovered interest arbitrage」 Do you know What does it means?
「Covered interest arbitrage」Do you know What does it means?

(第17章)套息交易要怎樣營運,才不會出現風險呢?

上文我分析了,利差交易,盈利的兩個方面。

I analyzed above, the carry trade profitability aspects.

現在,我們開始認識:

Now, we begin to realize:

「非拋補套利」和「拋補套利」是甚麼意思?

“Uncovered interest arbitrage" and “Covered interest arbitrage," What does it mean?

(一) 套息交易的風險控制:

(Ⅰ) the carry trade risk control:

非拋補利套利的定義:
Uncovered interest arbitrage Definition:

非拋補套利主要是利用兩個國家市場利息率的差異,把短期資金從利率低的市場調到利率高的市場進行投資,以謀取利息差額的收益。

Uncovered arbitrage mainly refers to the use of the two countries, differences in financial market interest rates, the short-term funds from lower market interest rates, transferred to higher market interest rates, investment of funds, to obtain the difference between interest incomes.

假設美國6個月定期存款的利率為4%,而英國倫敦市場上,6個月期的國庫券收益率為6%,假設6個月內,英鎊對美元的匯率不變,那麼,投資者將資金,從美國調往倫敦進行6個月的資金投資,就可以穩定獲得2%的利息收入。

Suppose the United States six month time deposit interest rate is 4%, while the UK market in London, 6-month Treasury bills yield 6%, assuming six months, the Pounds against the U.S. dollar exchange rate, then investors will funds from the United States moved to London for six months the funds, investors can get a 2% steady income.

例如,倫敦投資者,擁有300萬美元資金,在美國的銀行存入6個月的定期存款,利率為4%,六個月後,投資者的本金和利息,總共獲得306萬美元。

For example, investors in London, put 300 million U.S. dollars in U.S.A. banks into a six-month time deposit interest rate of 4%, after six months, investors principal and interest, received a total
of $US 3,060,000 .

此時:如果投資者,進行利差交易,由於倫敦金融市場的利率比較高,投資者用美元兌換成英鎊進行投資,獲利可以增加。

At this point: If the investor carry trades, the London financial markets, interest rates relatively high, investors with investment dollars into Pounds, profit can be increased.

假設,即日的匯率是1GBP=USD1.5000,投資者即日在銀行,賣出300萬美元,便可以獲得200萬英鎊。假如,投資者即日將200萬英鎊,調往倫敦,購買英國6個月的國庫券,進行六個月的投資,利率為6%。6個月後,投資商可以獲得本金和利息共206萬英鎊。

Suppose, now the exchange rate is 1GBP = USD1.5000, investors are now in the bank, sold $ 3 million, will be able to get 200 million Pounds. If investors today will be 200 million Pounds, transferred to the United Kingdom, the United Kingdom for six months to buy Treasury bonds, the six-month investment, the interest rate is 6%. After 6 months, investors receive principal and interest can be 206 million Pounds.

如果英鎊對美元的匯率,在6個月內,沒有發生變化,投資者,可以獲得的本金和利息,合共206萬英鎊,投資者即日可以兌換成309萬美元。

If the Pounds against the Dollars in six months, no change, investors can get the principal and interest, totaling £ 2,060,000 investors now can be redeemed for U.S. $ 3,090,000

由於投資者進行套利交易,所以投資者能夠多賺9萬美元。

As the carry trade, investors can earn U.S. $ 90,000.

這是一種純粹的套利交易,所以便稱為「非拋補套利」。

This is a pure arbitrage trading, so they called the “non-uncovered arbitrage."

但是在目前浮動的匯率制度下,6個月內,英鎊對美元的匯率,不可能不會發生變化。

But in the current floating exchange rate system, within six months, the Pounds against the U.S. dollar, it is impossible not change.

如果在6個月期間,英鎊匯率下跌,假設六個內,匯率是GBP1=USD1.4500。

If the six-month period, the Pounds fell, assuming six months, the exchange rate is GBP1 = USD1.4500.

投資者,便可能不能兌換回,原來投資的美元數額,因此蒙受損失。

If the £206 million of principal and interest, only in exchange for $ 298.7 million (£206 million X1.4500), then compare the stored in U.S. banks, earnings decreased US$103000($US 309-$US 298.7).

在這種情況下,投機套利交易者,便會利用遠期外匯交易,避免匯率風險。

In this case, speculative arbitrage traders will use forward foreign exchange transactions to avoid currency risk.

(二)什麼是拋補套利?

(Ⅱ) What is the covered interest arbitrage?

拋補套利是指:進行套利投資者,將資金從甲地調往乙地時,希望獲取較高的利息,於是,投資者,在外匯市場上賣出,遠期的乙國貨幣,防止投資虧損風險。

Uncovered arbitrage means: arbitrage investors, the funds transferred from A to point B, they hope to get higher interest rates, and so investors in the foreign exchange market, sell, and forward currency of State B and prevent the risk of investment losses.

按照我們剛才的計算方式,如果這個遠期匯水,能夠保證贏利,那麼投資者就會進行交易。這是規避風險的方法之一。

According to our earlier calculation, if the long-term catchment, to ensure profitability, then an investor will be traded. This is one way to avoid the risk.

匯水,是指遠期匯率與即期匯率的差額。

Catchment is the forward rate and the spot exchange rate difference.

若遠期匯率大於即期匯率,那麼這一差額,稱為升水,表示遠期外匯,比較即期外匯,價格較高。

If the forward rate is greater than the spot rate, then this difference, called the At Premium, said the forward foreign exchange, more spot foreign exchange, the price is higher.

若遠期匯率低於即期匯率,那麼,這一差額,稱為貼水,表示遠期外匯,比較即期外匯便宜。

If the forward rate is lower than the spot rate, then this difference, called the Discount, said the forward foreign exchange, spot foreign exchange more expensive.

若遠期匯率與即期匯率相等,那麼就稱為平價。這種報價方法是銀行間外匯報價法,通過即期匯率加減升貼水,就可算出遠期匯率。
If the forward rate and spot rate are equal, then known as Parity this offer is interbank foreign exchange quotation method, addition and subtraction by the spot exchange rate premiums and discounts, we can calculate the forward rate.

遠期匯水的計算:

The calculation of long-term catchment:

遠期匯水由三個因素決定:兩種貨幣的即期匯率、兩種貨幣的利率水準,期限的長短。

Long-term catchment determined by three factors: the spot exchange rate between two currencies, two monetary interest rates, length of the period.

遠期匯水的計算公式為:

Long-term catchment is calculated as:

遠期匯水=即期匯率×(報價幣利率-被報價幣利率)×天數/360

Long-term catchment = the spot exchange rate × (quote currency interest rate – quote currency interest rate) × number of days / 360

在上述公式中,假如報價貨幣,利率高於被報價貨幣的利率,其中,利率差距是正數,此時,遠期匯率,減去即期匯率,差距大於零,稱之為升水;若報價幣利率,低於被報價幣利率,而利率差距為負數,此時,遠期匯率減去即期匯率,假如是低於零,稱之為貼水。

In the above formula, if the quote currency, interest rate higher than the interest rate quoted currency in which the interest rate gap is positive, this time, the forward rate, minus the spot rate, the gap is greater than zero, called the premium; if the offer currency interest rates, currency rates below are quoted, and the interest rate gap is negative, this time, forward rate minus the spot rate, if it is below zero, called the Discount.

拋補套利,是一種套利與掉期,互相結合的一種交易。通過這種交易,投資者既可以獲得利率差額的好處,同時,又可以獲得較高的利息收入。

Covered interest arbitrage is an arbitrage with swaps, a transaction with each other. Through this transaction, the investor can get both the benefits of the interest rate differential, while they can get higher interest income.

但是,要進行套利交易,卻要付出一筆掉期成本。

However, to carry out arbitrage transactions, have to pay swap costs.

這是計算公式:掉期成本年率 =(升水/貼水*12)/(即期匯率*遠期月數)*100%

This is the formula: swap cost per annum = (At Premium / discount * 12) / (forward spot rate *number of months) * 100%

拋補套利,是否可行,取決於利率差距與掉期成本(年利率)的互相比較。

Covered interest arbitrage, if feasible, depending on the interest rate gap with the swap cost (interest rate) is compared with each other.

當掉期成本的年利率,高於或者等於利率差距時,便沒有利潤可賺;相反,當掉期成本年利率,低於利息差距時,則可以進行套利交易,因為,這是有利潤可賺的投資。

When the cost of interest rate swaps, interest rate higher than or equal to the gap, they did not make a profit; the contrary, when the cost of interest rate swaps, interest rate lower than the gap, then you can make arbitrage trading, because this is a profit earn investment.

(三)進行拋補套利交易的例子:

(Ⅲ)For example, Covered arbitrage transactions:

例如,假定瑞士金融市場,存款利率年息是8%;英國金融市場,存款利率年息是13%;
£1= SF2.5。
For example, assume that the Swiss financial market, the deposit rate is 8% per annum; the UK financial markets, deposit rate are 13% per annum;
£ 1 = SF2.5.

10萬瑞士法郎,在瑞士銀行存款3個月,到期利息為:100000*8%*3/12= SF2000。

100,000 Swiss francs, the Swiss bank deposits for three months, interest due to: 100000 * 8% * 3 / 12 = SF2000.

假定,3個月的遠期匯率是£1= SF2.48。

Assume that three-month forward rate is £ 1 = SF2.48.

掉期成本,年利率是:

Swap costs, interest rate is:

[(2.5-2.48)*12]/(2.5*3)*100%=3.2%。

此時,掉期成本,年利率(3.2%)低於利息差距(5%)。這是有利潤可賺的交易。

At this point, the cost of swaps, interest rate (3.2%) lowers than the interest rate gap (5%). This is a make profit trading.

1、 掉期成本

•買入40000£現匯 2.5 付出100000 SF
•賣出40000£期匯 2.48 收入99200 SF

1, the cost of swaps
• 2.5 to pay cash100000 SF to buy 40000 £
• to sell 40000 £ Forward exchange 2.48 income 99200 SF

2、 獲得的利息是:800 SF

2, the interest earned is: 800 SF

•存放在英國3個月所得利息:40000*13%*3/12*2.48=SF3224

• Store in the UK for three months interest earned: 40000 * 13% * 3 / 12 * 2.48 = SF3224

•存放在瑞士3個月所得利息:100000*8%*3/12=SF2000

• Store in Switzerland for three months interest earned: 100000 * 8% * 3 / 12 = SF2000

增加的利息是1224SF

Increased interest is 1224SF

3、 凈收入:

3, net income:

凈收入=多得利息-掉期成本=1224-800=424SF

Net income = more gains interest – swaps cost = 1224-800 = 424SF

拋補套利是指:在進行套利交易的同時,同時進行外匯拋補,(亦即是,進行掉期交易,目的是規避匯率變動的風險)。

Covered interest arbitrage means: making the carry trade, while at the same time uncovered foreign exchange, (that is, swap transactions, the purpose is to avoid the risk of exchange rate changes).

當外匯市場上,兩種貨幣的即期匯率和遠期匯率,兩者的利率相差額度,低於當時這兩種貨幣的利率差額時,拋補套利就會發生。

When the foreign exchange market, the two currencies in the spot rate and forward exchange rates, interest rate difference between the two lines, below the prevailing interest rate difference between the two currencies, the uncovered arbitrage occurs.

典型的拋補套利行為是:當事人借入利率較低的某種貨幣。

A typical arbitrage is: speculators, borrowing a currency with lower interest rates.

在現匯市場上,將這筆資金,轉變為利率較高的另一種貨幣,並進行投資;
In the spot market, the money, higher interest rates into another currency, and investment;

為了避免匯率風險,投機者,同時訂立一份遠期外匯合同,在到期日,按照預先商議的匯率,賣出利率較高的貨幣,用來償還借入的款項。

In order to avoid exchange rate risk, speculators, and entered into a forward foreign exchange contracts, the maturity date, according to a pre-negotiated rates, higher interest rates to sell the currency, used to repay borrowed money.

這種拋補套利交易,通過恰當的安排,將幾筆交易,進行適當的組合,使借款人在獲取利潤的同時,完全避免了市場風險。

These covered interest arbitrage transactions, through appropriate arrangements to carry out the appropriate combination of the borrower, in the profits, while completely avoiding market risk.

(四)套息交易對匯市的影響:

(Ⅳ), Carry trade impact on currency markets:

讓我再說說,套息交易的建立和結算,對匯市的影響 :

Let me say that the establishment of the carry trade and settlement, the impact of currency:

當套息交易建立時,因為是買入高息貨幣,賣出低息貨幣,那麼,高息貨幣在外匯現貨市場,就會向上升,低息貨幣,就會向下跌。

When the carry trade is established, because it is high yielding currencies to buy, sell low-interest money, then the high interest rate currencies in the foreign exchange spot market will be to rise, low-interest money, will be to fall.

當套息交易,有大量結算時,因為要在外匯市場上,賣出高息貨幣,買入低息貨幣,所以,高息貨幣就會向下跌,低息貨幣,就會向上升。

When the carry trade, a large settlement, because in the foreign exchange market, selling high-yielding currencies, buying cheap money, so money will be to high interest rates fall, low-interest money, will be to rise.

遠期外匯市場的主要功能是:

The main function of the forward foreign exchange market is:

避免即期匯率的波動,帶來投資的風險。

To avoid the spot exchange rate fluctuations, bringing investment risk.

(五)遠期外匯市場的參與者,可分為三大類:

(Ⅴ)Forward foreign exchange market participants, can be divided into three categories:

規避風險的人:

Risk-averse person:

舉例來說,某香港出口商,預計三個月後,可以收到一筆,美國客戶用美元計價的貨款,出口商為了避免這一筆款項,在三個月後,當兌換成港幣時,美元可能會大幅貶值。所以該出口商,可以預先在遠期外匯市場中,賣出相當數額的三個月期限的遠期外匯,三個月後,不論美元上升或下降,出口商都將確定以三個月前所約定的匯率,兌換成港幣,因此規避了匯兌可能下跌的風險。

As an example, a Hong Kong exporter, is expected after three months, he can receive a U.S. customer, with the dollar-denominated loans, exporters, in order to avoid, this sum of money after three months, when converted into Hong Kong dollars, the dollar may be depreciated. Therefore, the exporter can advance in the forward foreign exchange market, selling a considerable amount of three-month period, and forward foreign exchange, after three months, regardless of dollar rise or fall, exporters, will be determined in three months before the agreed exchange rate, converted into dollars, so to avoid, the exchange may fall risk.

套取利息的人:
People taking interest: (Perfect Market)

企圖套取利益的人,會根據各個國家之間,銀行利率的差距,進行外匯交易,假定:在完美市場的情況下,資金會由較低利率的國家,流向較高利率的國家。在此情況下,資金將會在國際間互相流動。因此,便會影響匯率的變化,在這情況之下,可能會產生,即期匯率和遠期匯率之間,暫時不協調的現象。套取利息的人,便有機會,藉此,從事套利交易,賺取金錢。

In the foreign exchange market, carry trades people, according to the various countries, the gap between interest rates, foreign exchange transactions.
Assumptions: In the case of perfect markets, capital of the country by the lower interest rates, higher flow rates the country. In this case, the international mutual funds will flow. Therefore, the changes will affect the exchange rate, in these circumstances; it may have, between the spot rate and forward rate, a temporary imbalance. People taking interest, have the opportunity to engage in arbitrage trading to earn money.
進行投機的人:

People to speculate:

參與套息交易的人,他們進行利差交易的動機,純粹是因為他們對匯率未來的走勢和預測,有獨到之判斷,而又願意承擔匯率變動所帶來的風險。他們追求因為預期正確,而帶來之利潤。

Involved in carry trades, and their carry trades motivation, the exchange rate simply because they forecast future trends and correct judgments, and willing to bear the risks of exchange rate changes. They seek, because the expected correct, and bring profit.

也由於上述參與者之加入市場,而促使遠期外匯市場,不斷地蓬勃發展。
Also due to join the participants of the market, and promote, forward foreign exchange market, continue to flourish.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

(Chapter 17)what operation to carry trade, will it not risk?


「Uncovered interest arbitrage」 Do you know What does it means?
「Covered interest arbitrage」Do you know What does it means?

(第17章)套息交易要怎樣營運,才不會出現風險呢?

上文我分析了,利差交易,盈利的兩個方面。

I analyzed above, the carry trade profitability aspects.

現在,我們開始認識:

Now, we begin to realize:

「非拋補套利」和「拋補套利」是甚麼意思?

“Uncovered interest arbitrage" and “Covered interest arbitrage," What does it mean?

(一) 套息交易的風險控制:

(Ⅰ) the carry trade risk control:

非拋補利套利的定義:
Uncovered interest arbitrage Definition:

非拋補套利主要是利用兩個國家市場利息率的差異,把短期資金從利率低的市場調到利率高的市場進行投資,以謀取利息差額的收益。

Uncovered arbitrage mainly refers to the use of the two countries, differences in financial market interest rates, the short-term funds from lower market interest rates, transferred to higher market interest rates, investment of funds, to obtain the difference between interest incomes.

假設美國6個月定期存款的利率為4%,而英國倫敦市場上,6個月期的國庫券收益率為6%,假設6個月內,英鎊對美元的匯率不變,那麼,投資者將資金,從美國調往倫敦進行6個月的資金投資,就可以穩定獲得2%的利息收入。

Suppose the United States six month time deposit interest rate is 4%, while the UK market in London, 6-month Treasury bills yield 6%, assuming six months, the Pounds against the U.S. dollar exchange rate, then investors will funds from the United States moved to London for six months the funds, investors can get a 2% steady income.

例如,倫敦投資者,擁有300萬美元資金,在美國的銀行存入6個月的定期存款,利率為4%,六個月後,投資者的本金和利息,總共獲得306萬美元。

For example, investors in London, put 300 million U.S. dollars in U.S.A. banks into a six-month time deposit interest rate of 4%, after six months, investors principal and interest, received a total
of $US 3,060,000 .

此時:如果投資者,進行利差交易,由於倫敦金融市場的利率比較高,投資者用美元兌換成英鎊進行投資,獲利可以增加。

At this point: If the investor carry trades, the London financial markets, interest rates relatively high, investors with investment dollars into Pounds, profit can be increased.

假設,即日的匯率是1GBP=USD1.5000,投資者即日在銀行,賣出300萬美元,便可以獲得200萬英鎊。假如,投資者即日將200萬英鎊,調往倫敦,購買英國6個月的國庫券,進行六個月的投資,利率為6%。6個月後,投資商可以獲得本金和利息共206萬英鎊。

Suppose, now the exchange rate is 1GBP = USD1.5000, investors are now in the bank, sold $ 3 million, will be able to get 200 million Pounds. If investors today will be 200 million Pounds, transferred to the United Kingdom, the United Kingdom for six months to buy Treasury bonds, the six-month investment, the interest rate is 6%. After 6 months, investors receive principal and interest can be 206 million Pounds.

如果英鎊對美元的匯率,在6個月內,沒有發生變化,投資者,可以獲得的本金和利息,合共206萬英鎊,投資者即日可以兌換成309萬美元。

If the Pounds against the Dollars in six months, no change, investors can get the principal and interest, totaling £ 2,060,000 investors now can be redeemed for U.S. $ 3,090,000

由於投資者進行套利交易,所以投資者能夠多賺9萬美元。

As the carry trade, investors can earn U.S. $ 90,000.

這是一種純粹的套利交易,所以便稱為「非拋補套利」。

This is a pure arbitrage trading, so they called the “non-uncovered arbitrage."

但是在目前浮動的匯率制度下,6個月內,英鎊對美元的匯率,不可能不會發生變化。

But in the current floating exchange rate system, within six months, the Pounds against the U.S. dollar, it is impossible not change.

如果在6個月期間,英鎊匯率下跌,假設六個內,匯率是GBP1=USD1.4500。

If the six-month period, the Pounds fell, assuming six months, the exchange rate is GBP1 = USD1.4500.

投資者,便可能不能兌換回,原來投資的美元數額,因此蒙受損失。

If the £206 million of principal and interest, only in exchange for $ 298.7 million (£206 million X1.4500), then compare the stored in U.S. banks, earnings decreased US$103000($US 309-$US 298.7).

在這種情況下,投機套利交易者,便會利用遠期外匯交易,避免匯率風險。

In this case, speculative arbitrage traders will use forward foreign exchange transactions to avoid currency risk.

(二)什麼是拋補套利?

(Ⅱ) What is the covered interest arbitrage?

拋補套利是指:進行套利投資者,將資金從甲地調往乙地時,希望獲取較高的利息,於是,投資者,在外匯市場上賣出,遠期的乙國貨幣,防止投資虧損風險。

Uncovered arbitrage means: arbitrage investors, the funds transferred from A to point B, they hope to get higher interest rates, and so investors in the foreign exchange market, sell, and forward currency of State B and prevent the risk of investment losses.

按照我們剛才的計算方式,如果這個遠期匯水,能夠保證贏利,那麼投資者就會進行交易。這是規避風險的方法之一。

According to our earlier calculation, if the long-term catchment, to ensure profitability, then an investor will be traded. This is one way to avoid the risk.

匯水,是指遠期匯率與即期匯率的差額。

Catchment is the forward rate and the spot exchange rate difference.

若遠期匯率大於即期匯率,那麼這一差額,稱為升水,表示遠期外匯,比較即期外匯,價格較高。

If the forward rate is greater than the spot rate, then this difference, called the At Premium, said the forward foreign exchange, more spot foreign exchange, the price is higher.

若遠期匯率低於即期匯率,那麼,這一差額,稱為貼水,表示遠期外匯,比較即期外匯便宜。

If the forward rate is lower than the spot rate, then this difference, called the Discount, said the forward foreign exchange, spot foreign exchange more expensive.

若遠期匯率與即期匯率相等,那麼就稱為平價。這種報價方法是銀行間外匯報價法,通過即期匯率加減升貼水,就可算出遠期匯率。
If the forward rate and spot rate are equal, then known as Parity this offer is interbank foreign exchange quotation method, addition and subtraction by the spot exchange rate premiums and discounts, we can calculate the forward rate.

遠期匯水的計算:

The calculation of long-term catchment:

遠期匯水由三個因素決定:兩種貨幣的即期匯率、兩種貨幣的利率水準,期限的長短。

Long-term catchment determined by three factors: the spot exchange rate between two currencies, two monetary interest rates, length of the period.

遠期匯水的計算公式為:

Long-term catchment is calculated as:

遠期匯水=即期匯率×(報價幣利率-被報價幣利率)×天數/360

Long-term catchment = the spot exchange rate × (quote currency interest rate – quote currency interest rate) × number of days / 360

在上述公式中,假如報價貨幣,利率高於被報價貨幣的利率,其中,利率差距是正數,此時,遠期匯率,減去即期匯率,差距大於零,稱之為升水;若報價幣利率,低於被報價幣利率,而利率差距為負數,此時,遠期匯率減去即期匯率,假如是低於零,稱之為貼水。

In the above formula, if the quote currency, interest rate higher than the interest rate quoted currency in which the interest rate gap is positive, this time, the forward rate, minus the spot rate, the gap is greater than zero, called the premium; if the offer currency interest rates, currency rates below are quoted, and the interest rate gap is negative, this time, forward rate minus the spot rate, if it is below zero, called the Discount.

拋補套利,是一種套利與掉期,互相結合的一種交易。通過這種交易,投資者既可以獲得利率差額的好處,同時,又可以獲得較高的利息收入。

Covered interest arbitrage is an arbitrage with swaps, a transaction with each other. Through this transaction, the investor can get both the benefits of the interest rate differential, while they can get higher interest income.

但是,要進行套利交易,卻要付出一筆掉期成本。

However, to carry out arbitrage transactions, have to pay swap costs.

這是計算公式:掉期成本年率 =(升水/貼水*12)/(即期匯率*遠期月數)*100%

This is the formula: swap cost per annum = (At Premium / discount * 12) / (forward spot rate *number of months) * 100%

拋補套利,是否可行,取決於利率差距與掉期成本(年利率)的互相比較。

Covered interest arbitrage, if feasible, depending on the interest rate gap with the swap cost (interest rate) is compared with each other.

當掉期成本的年利率,高於或者等於利率差距時,便沒有利潤可賺;相反,當掉期成本年利率,低於利息差距時,則可以進行套利交易,因為,這是有利潤可賺的投資。

When the cost of interest rate swaps, interest rate higher than or equal to the gap, they did not make a profit; the contrary, when the cost of interest rate swaps, interest rate lower than the gap, then you can make arbitrage trading, because this is a profit earn investment.

(三)進行拋補套利交易的例子:

(Ⅲ)For example, Covered arbitrage transactions:

例如,假定瑞士金融市場,存款利率年息是8%;英國金融市場,存款利率年息是13%;
£1= SF2.5。
For example, assume that the Swiss financial market, the deposit rate is 8% per annum; the UK financial markets, deposit rate are 13% per annum;
£ 1 = SF2.5.

10萬瑞士法郎,在瑞士銀行存款3個月,到期利息為:100000*8%*3/12= SF2000。

100,000 Swiss francs, the Swiss bank deposits for three months, interest due to: 100000 * 8% * 3 / 12 = SF2000.

假定,3個月的遠期匯率是£1= SF2.48。

Assume that three-month forward rate is £ 1 = SF2.48.

掉期成本,年利率是:

Swap costs, interest rate is:

[(2.5-2.48)*12]/(2.5*3)*100%=3.2%。

此時,掉期成本,年利率(3.2%)低於利息差距(5%)。這是有利潤可賺的交易。

At this point, the cost of swaps, interest rate (3.2%) lowers than the interest rate gap (5%). This is a make profit trading.

1、 掉期成本

•買入40000£現匯 2.5 付出100000 SF
•賣出40000£期匯 2.48 收入99200 SF

1, the cost of swaps
• 2.5 to pay cash100000 SF to buy 40000 £
• to sell 40000 £ Forward exchange 2.48 income 99200 SF

2、 獲得的利息是:800 SF

2, the interest earned is: 800 SF

•存放在英國3個月所得利息:40000*13%*3/12*2.48=SF3224

• Store in the UK for three months interest earned: 40000 * 13% * 3 / 12 * 2.48 = SF3224

•存放在瑞士3個月所得利息:100000*8%*3/12=SF2000

• Store in Switzerland for three months interest earned: 100000 * 8% * 3 / 12 = SF2000

增加的利息是1224SF

Increased interest is 1224SF

3、 凈收入:

3, net income:

凈收入=多得利息-掉期成本=1224-800=424SF

Net income = more gains interest – swaps cost = 1224-800 = 424SF

拋補套利是指:在進行套利交易的同時,同時進行外匯拋補,(亦即是,進行掉期交易,目的是規避匯率變動的風險)。

Covered interest arbitrage means: making the carry trade, while at the same time uncovered foreign exchange, (that is, swap transactions, the purpose is to avoid the risk of exchange rate changes).

當外匯市場上,兩種貨幣的即期匯率和遠期匯率,兩者的利率相差額度,低於當時這兩種貨幣的利率差額時,拋補套利就會發生。

When the foreign exchange market, the two currencies in the spot rate and forward exchange rates, interest rate difference between the two lines, below the prevailing interest rate difference between the two currencies, the uncovered arbitrage occurs.

典型的拋補套利行為是:當事人借入利率較低的某種貨幣。

A typical arbitrage is: speculators, borrowing a currency with lower interest rates.

在現匯市場上,將這筆資金,轉變為利率較高的另一種貨幣,並進行投資;
In the spot market, the money, higher interest rates into another currency, and investment;

為了避免匯率風險,投機者,同時訂立一份遠期外匯合同,在到期日,按照預先商議的匯率,賣出利率較高的貨幣,用來償還借入的款項。

In order to avoid exchange rate risk, speculators, and entered into a forward foreign exchange contracts, the maturity date, according to a pre-negotiated rates, higher interest rates to sell the currency, used to repay borrowed money.

這種拋補套利交易,通過恰當的安排,將幾筆交易,進行適當的組合,使借款人在獲取利潤的同時,完全避免了市場風險。

These covered interest arbitrage transactions, through appropriate arrangements to carry out the appropriate combination of the borrower, in the profits, while completely avoiding market risk.

(四)套息交易對匯市的影響:

(Ⅳ), Carry trade impact on currency markets:

讓我再說說,套息交易的建立和結算,對匯市的影響 :

Let me say that the establishment of the carry trade and settlement, the impact of currency:

當套息交易建立時,因為是買入高息貨幣,賣出低息貨幣,那麼,高息貨幣在外匯現貨市場,就會向上升,低息貨幣,就會向下跌。

When the carry trade is established, because it is high yielding currencies to buy, sell low-interest money, then the high interest rate currencies in the foreign exchange spot market will be to rise, low-interest money, will be to fall.

當套息交易,有大量結算時,因為要在外匯市場上,賣出高息貨幣,買入低息貨幣,所以,高息貨幣就會向下跌,低息貨幣,就會向上升。

When the carry trade, a large settlement, because in the foreign exchange market, selling high-yielding currencies, buying cheap money, so money will be to high interest rates fall, low-interest money, will be to rise.

遠期外匯市場的主要功能是:

The main function of the forward foreign exchange market is:

避免即期匯率的波動,帶來投資的風險。

To avoid the spot exchange rate fluctuations, bringing investment risk.

(五)遠期外匯市場的參與者,可分為三大類:

(Ⅴ)Forward foreign exchange market participants, can be divided into three categories:

規避風險的人:

Risk-averse person:

舉例來說,某香港出口商,預計三個月後,可以收到一筆,美國客戶用美元計價的貨款,出口商為了避免這一筆款項,在三個月後,當兌換成港幣時,美元可能會大幅貶值。所以該出口商,可以預先在遠期外匯市場中,賣出相當數額的三個月期限的遠期外匯,三個月後,不論美元上升或下降,出口商都將確定以三個月前所約定的匯率,兌換成港幣,因此規避了匯兌可能下跌的風險。

As an example, a Hong Kong exporter, is expected after three months, he can receive a U.S. customer, with the dollar-denominated loans, exporters, in order to avoid, this sum of money after three months, when converted into Hong Kong dollars, the dollar may be depreciated. Therefore, the exporter can advance in the forward foreign exchange market, selling a considerable amount of three-month period, and forward foreign exchange, after three months, regardless of dollar rise or fall, exporters, will be determined in three months before the agreed exchange rate, converted into dollars, so to avoid, the exchange may fall risk.

套取利息的人:
People taking interest: (Perfect Market)

企圖套取利益的人,會根據各個國家之間,銀行利率的差距,進行外匯交易,假定:在完美市場的情況下,資金會由較低利率的國家,流向較高利率的國家。在此情況下,資金將會在國際間互相流動。因此,便會影響匯率的變化,在這情況之下,可能會產生,即期匯率和遠期匯率之間,暫時不協調的現象。套取利息的人,便有機會,藉此,從事套利交易,賺取金錢。

In the foreign exchange market, carry trades people, according to the various countries, the gap between interest rates, foreign exchange transactions.
Assumptions: In the case of perfect markets, capital of the country by the lower interest rates, higher flow rates the country. In this case, the international mutual funds will flow. Therefore, the changes will affect the exchange rate, in these circumstances; it may have, between the spot rate and forward rate, a temporary imbalance. People taking interest, have the opportunity to engage in arbitrage trading to earn money.
進行投機的人:

People to speculate:

參與套息交易的人,他們進行利差交易的動機,純粹是因為他們對匯率未來的走勢和預測,有獨到之判斷,而又願意承擔匯率變動所帶來的風險。他們追求因為預期正確,而帶來之利潤。

Involved in carry trades, and their carry trades motivation, the exchange rate simply because they forecast future trends and correct judgments, and willing to bear the risks of exchange rate changes. They seek, because the expected correct, and bring profit.

也由於上述參與者之加入市場,而促使遠期外匯市場,不斷地蓬勃發展。
Also due to join the participants of the market, and promote, forward foreign exchange market, continue to flourish.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

(Chapter 16)Who can get from the course of the 「carry trade」interest? Small investors can benefit from them? When the「carry trade」blast, who is the victims?


(Chapter 17)what operation to carry trade, will it not risk?

「Uncovered interest arbitrage」 Do you know What does it mean?
「Covered interest arbitrage」Do you know What does it mean?

(Chapter 15)Nine euro area countries, sovereign rating is Standard & Poor’s reduced; Do you know the fuse is?


(Chapter 15)Nine euro area countries, sovereign rating is Standard & Poor's reduced; Do you know the fuse is?.

(Chapter 15)Nine euro area countries, sovereign rating is Standard & Poor’s reduced; Do you know the fuse is?

讀者都應該記得,根據我寫作的進度,這一期應該寫「利差交易」。
Readers should remember that, according to the progress of writing, this issue should write the “carry trade."

由於標準普爾把歐洲九個國家的主權評級降低,觸動了金融市場敏感的神經線,很多人都緊張起來,所以臨時轉換了話題,敬請原諒。
As the Standard & Poor’s sovereign rating in nine European countries to reduce, touched sensitive nerves of financial markets, many people are nervous, so the temporary changed the subject, please forgive me.

歐洲聯盟和歐元區於2012年1月20日,經歷了一個「黑色星期五」,歐元區有九個國家的主權評級,被標準普爾降低,您知道導火線是甚麼嗎?
European Union and the euro zone in January 20, 2012, experienced a “Black Friday", nine countries have the euro area sovereign rating by Standard & Poor’s reduced, do you know the fuse is?

這是由於:希臘政府與「國際金融學會」的代表談判其失敗。
This is due to: the Greek government and the “Institute of International Finance," the representative of the negotiations to fail.

「國際金融學會」是「對沖基金」的談判代表。
“Institute of International Finance" is a “hedge fund" negotiator.

希臘的國債,由於價格不斷下降,最終,大部份落入對沖基金的口袋裏。
Greek government bonds, as prices continued to fall, eventually, the majority of hedge funds into the pockets.

這些對沖基金都是豺狼的化身,他們對可能遇到的風險都計算清楚。
These hedge funds are the embodiment of wolves; their possible risks are clearly calculated.

希臘政府原來的設想是,使用高壓辦法,企圖強迫對沖基金自動削減債款50%。
Greek Government’s original plan is to use high-pressure methods in an attempt to force hedge funds to reduce debt 50% automatically.

但是,這些對沖基金,寧願希望希臘政府宣布違約,以便通過違約掉期,向出售CDS的保險公司或金融機構,取得全部金額的賠償。
However, these hedge funds, would rather hope that the Greek government announced default, so by default swaps, to sell CDS insurance company or financial institution to obtain the full amount of compensation.

2012年1月16日。法國總統薩爾科齊及德國總理默克爾在柏林會面,他們都希望歐洲聯盟可在2012年3月1日前,簽訂更緊密財政連繫的多邊協定,並正式回應,希臘政府要求「三方財團」,盡快批準撥出第二期應急貸款,希望暫時解決難題。
January 16, 2012. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met in Berlin, they want the European Union in the March 1, 2012, entered into closer financial ties, multilateral agreements and a formal response, the Greek Government requested the “Tripartite Foundation “, approved as soon as possible, set aside the second emergency loan, want to temporarily solve the problem.

希臘政府因為與對沖基金的談判失敗,削減債務50%的願望,終於落空。
Greek government, failure of the negotiations with hedge funds, 50% of the Greek government’s desire to reduce debt, has finally come to nothing.

因此,希臘政府便不能,取得歐洲聯盟、歐洲中央銀行及國際貨幣基金會組成的「三方集團」,第二期總值1300億歐羅的緊急貸款。
Therefore, the Greek government cannot obtain the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, a “three groups", the second worth 130 billion euro emergency loan.

由於談判雙方的主軸,都不在同一軌道上,最後,談判當然是破裂了。大風暴隨即便刮起了。
As the negotiations the two sides of the spindle, not in the same orbit, and finally, of course, the negotiations broke down. Then they whipped up a storm.

不過,我總覺得,希臘政府還是有最終極的解決辦法,以解決目前的僵局。
However, I always felt that the Greek government still has the ultimate solution to resolve the current impasse.

希臘政府,其實可以馬上訂立法例,立法規定,只要政府在取得一定比率的私營機構同意下,就等同,所有私營機構,自願接受削債50%的條款;
Greek government, in fact, can immediately introduce legislation to enact legislation, as long as a certain percentage of the government in obtaining the consent of the private sector, the equivalent of all the private sector, voluntary 50% cut debt provisions;

並且必須按照希臘政府所訂的條件,把私營機構擁有的,舊希臘國債,轉換成新的國債,而且年期重新訂定為30年,或更加長期的希臘國債。

And must be in accordance with the conditions laid down by the Greek government, the private sector have, the old Greek bonds into new bonds, and re-set period of 30 years or more long-term Greek government bonds.

不過,希臘政府,能否取得足夠的私營機構支持,這真是有待希臘政府或歐洲的領袖的斡旋了。
However, the Greek government, the private sector the ability to obtain adequate support, this is really to be the leader of the Greek government or the mediation of Europe.

筆者認為,如果這一方法,最終都是失敗的話,希臘國債除了宣布違約,已經是別無選擇了。
I believe that if this approach are ultimately fails, the Greek government bonds in addition to that breach of contract, is no choice.

請讀者注意:歐元不會在短期內解體的,因為這是牽涉全球經濟的大事,各國領袖不會坐視不理的。
Note to reader: the disintegration of the euro is not in the short term, because this is a major event involved in the global economy, world leaders will not turn a blind eye to.

不過,歐元匯價波動,卻是難免。筆者會在日後的評論中,說明歐元不會短期內解體的原因。
However, the euro exchange rate fluctuations, it is inevitable. The author comments in the future, indicating that the euro will not cause the disintegration of the short term.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

(Chapter 15)Nine euro area countries, sovereign rating is Standard & Poor’s reduced; Do you know the fuse is?


讀者都應該記得,根據我寫作的進度,這一期應該寫「利差交易」。
Readers should remember that, according to the progress of writing, this issue should write the “carry trade."

由於標準普爾把歐洲九個國家的主權評級降低,觸動了金融市場敏感的神經線,很多人都緊張起來,所以臨時轉換了話題,敬請原諒。
As the Standard & Poor’s sovereign rating in nine European countries to reduce, touched sensitive nerves of financial markets, many people are nervous, so the temporary changed the subject, please forgive me.

歐洲聯盟和歐元區於2012年1月20日,經歷了一個「黑色星期五」,歐元區有九個國家的主權評級,被標準普爾降低,您知道導火線是甚麼嗎?
European Union and the euro zone in January 20, 2012, experienced a “Black Friday", nine countries have the euro area sovereign rating by Standard & Poor’s reduced, do you know the fuse is?

這是由於:希臘政府與「國際金融學會」的代表談判其失敗。
This is due to: the Greek government and the “Institute of International Finance," the representative of the negotiations to fail.

「國際金融學會」是「對沖基金」的談判代表。
“Institute of International Finance" is a “hedge fund" negotiator.

希臘的國債,由於價格不斷下降,最終,大部份落入對沖基金的口袋裏。
Greek government bonds, as prices continued to fall, eventually, the majority of hedge funds into the pockets.

這些對沖基金都是豺狼的化身,他們對可能遇到的風險都計算清楚。
These hedge funds are the embodiment of wolves; their possible risks are clearly calculated.

希臘政府原來的設想是,使用高壓辦法,企圖強迫對沖基金自動削減債款50%。
Greek Government’s original plan is to use high-pressure methods in an attempt to force hedge funds to reduce debt 50% automatically.

但是,這些對沖基金,寧願希望希臘政府宣布違約,以便通過違約掉期,向出售CDS的保險公司或金融機構,取得全部金額的賠償。
However, these hedge funds, would rather hope that the Greek government announced default, so by default swaps, to sell CDS insurance company or financial institution to obtain the full amount of compensation.

2012年1月16日。法國總統薩爾科齊及德國總理默克爾在柏林會面,他們都希望歐洲聯盟可在2012年3月1日前,簽訂更緊密財政連繫的多邊協定,並正式回應,希臘政府要求「三方財團」,盡快批準撥出第二期應急貸款,希望暫時解決難題。
January 16, 2012. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met in Berlin, they want the European Union in the March 1, 2012, entered into closer financial ties, multilateral agreements and a formal response, the Greek Government requested the “Tripartite Foundation “, approved as soon as possible, set aside the second emergency loan, want to temporarily solve the problem.

希臘政府因為與對沖基金的談判失敗,削減債務50%的願望,終於落空。
Greek government, failure of the negotiations with hedge funds, 50% of the Greek government’s desire to reduce debt, has finally come to nothing.

因此,希臘政府便不能,取得歐洲聯盟、歐洲中央銀行及國際貨幣基金會組成的「三方集團」,第二期總值1300億歐羅的緊急貸款。
Therefore, the Greek government cannot obtain the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, a “three groups", the second worth 130 billion euro emergency loan.

由於談判雙方的主軸,都不在同一軌道上,最後,談判當然是破裂了。大風暴隨即便刮起了。
As the negotiations the two sides of the spindle, not in the same orbit, and finally, of course, the negotiations broke down. Then they whipped up a storm.

不過,我總覺得,希臘政府還是有最終極的解決辦法,以解決目前的僵局。
However, I always felt that the Greek government still has the ultimate solution to resolve the current impasse.

希臘政府,其實可以馬上訂立法例,立法規定,只要政府在取得一定比率的私營機構同意下,就等同,所有私營機構,自願接受削債50%的條款;
Greek government, in fact, can immediately introduce legislation to enact legislation, as long as a certain percentage of the government in obtaining the consent of the private sector, the equivalent of all the private sector, voluntary 50% cut debt provisions;

並且必須按照希臘政府所訂的條件,把私營機構擁有的,舊希臘國債,轉換成新的國債,而且年期重新訂定為30年,或更加長期的希臘國債。

And must be in accordance with the conditions laid down by the Greek government, the private sector have, the old Greek bonds into new bonds, and re-set period of 30 years or more long-term Greek government bonds.

不過,希臘政府,能否取得足夠的私營機構支持,這真是有待希臘政府或歐洲的領袖的斡旋了。
However, the Greek government, the private sector the ability to obtain adequate support, this is really to be the leader of the Greek government or the mediation of Europe.

筆者認為,如果這一方法,最終都是失敗的話,希臘國債除了宣布違約,已經是別無選擇了。
I believe that if this approach are ultimately fails, the Greek government bonds in addition to that breach of contract, is no choice.

請讀者注意:歐元不會在短期內解體的,因為這是牽涉全球經濟的大事,各國領袖不會坐視不理的。
Note to reader: the disintegration of the euro is not in the short term, because this is a major event involved in the global economy, world leaders will not turn a blind eye to.

不過,歐元匯價波動,卻是難免。筆者會在日後的評論中,說明歐元不會短期內解體的原因。
However, the euro exchange rate fluctuations, it is inevitable. The author comments in the future, indicating that the euro will not cause the disintegration of the short term.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

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