(Chapter 23)Greek old debts replacement of new debt, arbitration of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) will not trigger credit default swaps?


(Chapter 23)希臘舊債置換新債,經過國際掉期及衍生工具協會(ISDA)仲裁,不會觸發(CD S)信貸違約掉期?

國際掉期及衍生工具協會(ISDA)解說:
International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) Commentary:

ISDA 國際掉期及衍生工具協會是一個大型全球貿易組織,其成員是進行衍生產品私下交易和場外交易的公司。它負責制定ISDA的主協定,即衍生品的標準化合同。

International Swaps and Derivatives Association is a large global trade organization of companies who trade in private and over-the-counter derivatives. It was responsible for the creation of the ISDA master agreement, a standardized contract for trading in derivatives.

(一) 國際掉期及衍生工具協會(ISDA)經過冗長會議後宣佈:由15間大型銀行及對沖基金組成的委員會,一致裁定:希臘新債置換舊債的計劃,不會觸發信貸違約掉期(CDS)。

(1)of the International Swaps and derivatives Association (ISDA) announced after lengthy meetings: a committee composed of 15 large banks and hedge funds, by a unanimous decision: the plans of the replacement of old debts of the Greek new debt will not trigger the credit default swaps(CDS).

但是,這一次的裁定,並沒有處理,希臘政府有可能加入的「集體行動條款」(CAC)。所以,觸發希臘信貸違約掉期(CDS)的風險,仍然會存在。

However, this time the ruling did not deal with the Greek government may join the “collective action clauses (CAC). Therefore, the trigger of Greece, the risk of credit default swaps (CDS), will still exist.

ISDA收到兩項有關啟動希臘信貸違約掉期(CDS)的申請裁決,包括:

ISDA received two for a ruling related to the start of Greek credit default swaps(CDS), including:

要求ISDA裁決:希臘的削減債務計劃:會令到私人債權人的償債優先排序,排列位置會後於歐洲中央銀行,私人債權人覺得並不合理。

requires ISDA ruling: Greece’s debt reduction plan: will lead to private creditors, the debt service prioritization, alignment after the European Central Bank, the private creditors think that is unreasonable.

(二) 希臘政府與私人債權人達成的協議,會構成信貸違約掉期(CDS)。

(2) the Greek government reached agreement with private creditors, would constitute a credit default swap (CDS).

但是,SDA一致裁定,兩項申請裁決結果,都是無效。
ISDA認為:上述兩項投訴,都不會構成「信貸事件違約」,所以,希臘國債中,淨值32.5億美元的信貸違約掉期,將不需要作出賠償。

However, the SDA unanimously ruled that the two applications, the result of the ruling, are invalid.
ISDA: The above two complaints would not constitute a credit event of default , Greek government bonds, net of $ 3.25 billion in credit default swaps, will not be required to pay compensation.

不過,ISDA仍然有一項保留條款,該會繼續指出:希臘的情況,還會繼續發展下去,目前的決定,並不會影響私人債權人,日後再次要求,申請啟動希臘債務違約的仲裁機會(CDS)。

However, the ISDA remains a saving clause. ISDA continues: the case of Greece will continue to develop. ISDA’s decision does not affect the private creditors, future requirements; apply for arbitration opportunity to start the Greek debt default.

金融市場的投資者估計,由於參與置換新債的私人債權人,自動參與削減債務的人數,絕對不會達到90%以上,希臘政府,最終或要引入,以及動用「集體行動條款」,強制債權人置換新債,才能令到削減債項計劃,能夠順利進行。

Investors in the financial market is estimated that involved in replacement of new debt to private creditors, and automatically participate in a number of debt reduction, will never reach more than 90%, the Greek government, and ultimately to introduce, as well as the use of " collective action clauses “to force the creditors replacement new debt in order to reduce the debt plan can proceed smoothly.

但根據ISDA的規則,假設ISDA動用「集體行動條款」,會被金融市場投資者視為:希臘政府,實際上已經違約。

However, according to the rules of the ISDA, assuming that the ISDA utilized the “collective action clauses", financial markets and investors will be considered: the Greek government has actually to breach of contract.

ISDA委員會的成員,包括15名投票委員;成員包括高盛、摩根大通及德銀等。ISDA設有兩名顧問委員,ISDA裁決過程,經常被投資者批評,欠缺透明度;因為,每一次ISDA作出的裁決,都毋須解釋裁決的理由。投資者,亦不能上訴,金融界的人士,曾經屢次指出:裁決制度,容易造成利益衝突。

ISDA members of the Committee, including 15 voting members; members include Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank, the ISDA has two advisory committee, the ISDA award process, investors are often criticized the lack of transparency; every ISDA made rulings are not required to explain the reasons for the award. Investors cannot be appealed, the financial sector, has repeatedly pointed out: the ruling system, likely to cause a conflict of interest.

(三)希臘的「私人債權人,自願性參與削減債務計劃」(PSI)的解說:

(3)of the Greek “private creditors voluntary participation to reduce debt plan" (PSI) explanation:

PSI計畫的利益相關者,大致可以分為六個組別:

1歐元區核心國家Euro area core countries

2歐元區會員國家Euro area member states

3歐洲中央銀行European Central Bank

4國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)International Monetary Fund (IMF)

5希臘民間債權人Greece’s private creditors

6希臘政府Greek government

由於希臘國債,涉及利益的機構很多,包括:整個歐洲乃至全球的金融組織,這些機構或組織,彼此之間,正在編織一張龐大的“博弈網絡”。在這個多邊博弈網絡中,很可能會交替出現結果,而且每一次的結果,都將成為希臘的「生死時刻」。

Greek government bonds, involving the interests of the institution, include: the whole of Europe and the global financial organizations, institutions or organizations, with each other, are weaving a huge game network. In the multilateral game network, it may be alternating results, and the results will become the “life and death moment" in Greece.

儘管,歐洲中央銀行在希臘國債,擔當的角色與其他會員國家,官方債權人擔當的角色,目前還未能確立彼此之間的定位。但是,希臘政府與私人債權人之間的談判,正在進入白熱化階段,預計很快將會有結果。

Although the European Central Bank in the Greek government bonds and the role of other member countries, the role of official creditors, yet failed to establish their positioning. However, negotiations between the Greek Government and private creditors, is heating up, the expected results will soon be.

(四)希臘政府進行削減債務的過程中,可能會採取「集體行動條款」或同意退出條款(CAC)解說:

(4) The Greek government debt reduction process may take collective action clauses “or to agree to withdraw clauses (CAC) explanation:

惠譽評級機構,把希臘主權債務評級,下調至「最垃圾級別」,或許會引發金融市場出現恐慌。

Fitch rating agency, Greece’s sovereign debt rating lowered to “the most junk," may lead to financial markets panic.

2012年2月22日,歐元區的領袖,達成了幫助希臘政府,紓緩財政困難的協定之後,評級機構惠譽即時將希臘的違約評級(IDR),由CCC級下調至C級。

February 22, 2012, leaders of the euro area reached to help the Greek government to ease the financial difficulties the agreement, the rating agency Fitch immediately Greece Default Rating (IDR) down to the C-class level by the CCC.

「C等評級」是惠譽評級系統中,列入垃圾級別的第11級,也就是說:列入了「最垃圾級別」。
惠譽稱,希臘的「C等評級」,說明:希臘近期之內,極有可能發生違約行為。
假若債務互換計劃,能夠順利完成後:希臘債券發行人的違約評級,將會下調至「有限度違約」。

“C rating" is Fitch’s rating system, included in the spam level 11, that is: The inclusion of the “junk".
Fitch said the Greek “C rating" Description: Greece within the near future, most likely the case of default.
If the debt swap scheme, after the successful completion of: Greek bond issuer default rating will be reduced to “limited breach “.

惠譽的降級措施,並未讓金融市場,感到意外。分析師們認為,短期內,希臘還需要滿足多項條件,才能獲得第二輪貸款;而民間債權人參與(PSI),將導致觸發CDS違約的可能性增加。在長時間內,希臘還須要面臨:經濟增長緩慢的擔憂。

Fitch’s downgrade of measures and does not let the financial markets by surprise. Analysts believe that the short term, Greece also need to meet a number of conditions in order to obtain a second round of the loan; and private creditors to participate in (PSI), will lead to increased likelihood of defaults trigger CDS. Long period of time, Greece also needs to face: slow economic growth worries.

(五)希臘政府在近期內,很可能會違約?

(5)Greek government in the near future, it may be breach of contract?

希臘政府與私人部門債權人,在PSI互換方面已經達成了基本共識。包括:在會計帳務上,減記希臘政府債券面值的53.5%。
希臘政府又發出聲明,擴充了債務互換的條件,並且確認:希臘政府有意通過希臘法律,將會在債券互換協定中,引入「集體行動條款」(Collective Action Clauses,簡稱CACs).

The Greek government and the private sector creditors have reached a basic consensus in the PSI swap. Include: reduction of 53.5% of the nominal value of the Greek government bond market accounting.
The Greek government issued a statement: expansion of the debt swaps conditions, and confirmed: The Greek government intends to Greek law, will be in the bond swap agreements, the introduction of collective action clauses “(Collective, Action Clauses referred to CACs).

惠譽在發佈的降級聲明中指出:這一次債券互換計劃完成後,將會構成,符合評級機構標準的「壞債互換」要求,(Distressed Debt Exchange,簡稱DDE)。

Fitch downgrade released a statement that: after the completion of the bond swap plan would constitute" bad debt swap “requirements, in line with the rating agencies Standard (Distressed Debt Exchange, or DDE).

惠譽認為:在債務互換實施後,希臘評級,將被下調至「有限度違約」(Restricted Default,簡稱RD)。
落實新債務互換後,希臘債務主權評級,也將被撤去「有限度違約」的評級,
並會根據「評級機構,對違約後結構和信用狀況,進行的評估」再次獲得評級。

Fitch said: After the implementation of the debt swap, the rating of Greece will be reduced to “limited breach of contract" (the Restricted the Default referred to the RD).
The implementation of the new debt swap, the sovereignty of the Greek debt rating will also be removed the rating of “limited breach of contract"
And again according to the rating agencies, on the structure and credit-default situation, the assessment carried out rating.

惠譽評級機構還表示:受此次債務互換影響的希臘國債,包括:那些儘管沒有被償付,但被納入強制性重組的債券評級,評級將會被下調至D級。

Fitch rating agency also said: Greek government bonds were affected by the impact of debt swap, including: who are currently not being pay, but was included in the mandatory restructuring of bond rating, the rating will be lowered to D-level.

(六)希臘國債投資者,將會被迫接受債務削減的現實?

(6)G reek bond investors will be forced to accept the reality of debt reduction?

根據歐元區財政部長通過的PSI協議,這一次債務互換計劃,目標在於減免1070億歐元的希臘債務負擔,相當於2011年希臘GDP的50%。
根據PSI協議規定:私人債權人被迫削減的債務幅度,高達53.5%。
而且,由希臘政府重新發出債券的贖回期限,會由11年到30年不等。在債務互換協議中,每100歐元面值的舊債券,將會換得面值31.5歐元的新發行希臘債券;及由(EFSF)發行的面值只有15歐元的短期票據。

Accordance with the agreement of the euro zone finance ministers through the PSI, this time debt swap program, the goal is relief for the Greek debt burden of 107 billion euros, equivalent to 50% of the 2011 Greek GDP.
According to the PSI agreement provides that: private creditors were forced to cut the debt margin, up 53.5 percent.
Moreover, by the Greek government re-issued bonds of the redemption period, ranging from 11 to 30 years. Per € 100 face value of old bonds in the debt swap agreement, will be in exchange for 31.5 euros each new issue of Greek bonds; short-term notes issued by the (EFSF) the nominal value of € 15.

希臘財政部長維尼澤洛斯(Evangels Venizelos)於2012年2月21日表示,希臘政府會立刻進行立法,訂出互換債券的細節。
希臘政府進一步發佈一項聲明稱:由希臘政府訂出置換債券的法規,將會包括所謂的集體行動條款(CAC),即是:如果獲得多數持債人同意,執行互換計劃,這一條款,將會迫使:所有拒絕債務互換的持債人,都必須接受互換。

Greek Finance Minister Evangels Venizelos on February 21, 2012, the Greek government immediately legislates to set out the details of the swap bonds.
The Greek government further issued a statement saying: replacement bonds and regulations set by the Greek government, including the so-called collective action clauses (CAC), that is: if the majority held the consent of the Lenders, the implementation of the swap plan, this provision will force: all refused to debt swaps, debt holders, must accept the swap.

(七)金融市場,對希臘政府,能否落實,執行換債協議,依然持有質疑的態度?
其實,惠譽對希臘國債評級的降級,也反映了金融市場,對希臘的經濟前景,依然持有質疑態度。
從短期來看,這一份所謂已經達成的協議,還是須要獲得,部分歐元區會員國家議會的批准,這一個環節,其實已經存在了,削減希臘債務的協議,能不能落實執行的不確定因素。

(7)Financial markets, the Greek government can implement execution-for-debt agreement, still holds a questioning attitude?
In fact, the Fitch downgrade of Greece’s debt rating also reflects the financial markets, the economic prospects of the Greek, still holds a questioning attitude.
The short term, a so-called agreements already reached, or need to obtain parliamentary approval of part of the Eurozone member states, this one procedure, in fact, already exists whether to cut Greek debt agreement, can implementation, there have been uncertainties.

因為,為確保希臘獲得第二批救助款,希臘還需要滿足,「歐洲金融三頭馬車」訂下的三個條件:

Because, to ensure that the Greek government for the second batch of bailout loans, Greece also needs to meet the three conditions laid down by the troika of the European financial:

a首先,在本月底歐元區各個會員國政府或(IMF)在新方案上簽字之前,希臘必須滿足24項「前期行動」的要求,才有希望獲得新二輪貸款援助。這些要求包括:解僱表現欠佳的收稅員;通過法律,將一些壟斷性行業,進行自由化發展;收緊賄賂的規則;2012年6月份前,出售至少兩個國有企業等。

First, prior to the end of this month the euro area the various Governments of Member States or (IMF) signed the new program, Greece must meet the requirements of 24 “early action", there is hope of a new two loan assistance. These requirements include: the dismissal of the poor performance of the taxman; through legal monopoly industries, the liberalization of the development; to tighten the rules of bribery; June 2012, to sell at least two state-owned enterprises.

b其次,希臘政府必須同意國際監督人員更大規模、永久性地駐紮希臘,從而即時監督希臘政府的支出決定。
b Second, the Greek government must agree to large-scale international monitors permanently stationed in Greece, and thus immediate supervision of the Greek government’s spending decisions.

c第三,歐洲金融三頭馬車發放的救助貸款,全數存入一個託管帳戶,希臘政府必須確保,帳戶內的餘額,隨時能夠支付,至少3個月應該償還的債務。不過,這個託管帳戶,將會是臨時性質的,因為,希臘政府已經同意,通過修正憲法,將償付債務欠款,列為財政支出中,最優先處理的項目。

Third, the troika of the European financial rescue loan granted full deposited into an escrow account, the Greek government must ensure that the account balance at any time be able to pay at least three months, the debt should be repaid. However, this escrow account will be temporary in nature, because the Greek government has agreed to amend the constitution, debt arrears as financial expenditure, the top priority project.

(八)此外,高盛進一步指出,希臘目前還存在著,兩個令人擔憂的現實:
a 希臘政府在處理新債置換舊債的過程中,可能會觸發(CDS)的保險賠償追索。
b 希臘經濟增長緩慢,令人擔憂希臘的前景,並不樂觀。

(8)In addition, Goldman Sachs further stated that the Greek government, the existence of two alarming reality:
A Greek government in the process of replacement of old debts of the new debt may trigger (CDS) of compensation recourse.
B Greek economic growth is slow, worrying prospects for Greece, it is very pessimistic.

因為,第一方面,民間債權人:由於須要承受的損失增加,希臘政府,有可能會動用集體行動條款(CAC),強迫債權人接受,新債換舊債的行政措施,並且觸發(CDS)的保險索償風潮。這些都是近期金融市場,不斷發生市況波動的源頭。

第二方面:不受希臘國內人民歡迎的,經濟結構性改革與國家企業私有化,是否能夠繼續推行,尚在未知之數。因為這些舉措,有可能會導致,希臘與其他歐盟成員國,進一步產生摩擦,引發希臘退出歐元區的風險。

Because, first aspect, the private creditors: due to increased need to bear the loss, the Greek government, may be the use of collective action clauses (CAC), to force creditors to accept the administrative measures of the new debt for old debt, and trigger (CDS) insurance claims wave. These are the recent financial market continuing source of market volatility.
The second: is not welcomed by the people of Greece, economic structural reform and privatization of state enterprises, is able to continue to implement, it is still unknown. Because of these initiatives, may result in Greece and other EU member states, further friction, lead to the risk of the Greek out of the euro.

早在惠譽對希臘國債,評定降級之前,希臘政府,已經通過了,目的是為希臘政府,削減接近1000億歐元的,債券置換法案。
希臘政府,立即把這一項具有爭議性條款的法案:包括迫使民間債權人,接受債務削減的方案,提交給了希臘議會。
有知情人士透露,最終債權人的實際削減債款,可能高達75%左右。

As early as before the Fitch assessment downgrade of Greek government bonds, the Greek government has passed, the purpose is to cut close to 100 billion euros, the bond replacement bill for the Greek government.
The Greek government immediately put controversial provisions of the bill: including force private creditors to accept the debt reduction program, and submitted to the Greek Parliament.
Informed sources, the actual reduction of debt of the ultimate creditor, may be as high as 75%.

根據法案內容,希臘政府:將會由議會賦予法定權力,進行大規模更改國債合同的內容,並實施所謂的:集體行動條款(CAC),假如獲得大多數債權人的批准,新債券的所有條款,將適用於所有擁有國債的債權人。

According to the contents of the bill, the Greek government: will by Parliament to give statutory powers to carry out large-scale change the content of the national debt contracts and the implementation of the so-called: collective action clauses (CAC).Subject to the consent of the majority of creditors, all the terms of the new bond will apply to all creditors with government bonds.

不過,從惠譽的衡量角度看來,希臘政府如果獲得議會援權,強制執行,新債置換舊債的舉措,將會構成「強迫性債券置換」的實施,這將會促使惠譽,對希臘國債實施進一步的大幅降級。

However, Fitch measure the point of view, the Greek government for parliamentary empowerment to enforce replacement of old debts of the new debt initiative, will constitute the implementation of the forced bond replacement, this will be prompted Fitch, Greek bonds the implementation of further substantial downgrade.

惠譽表示,在債券置換計畫開始之後,希臘的評級將會被進一步降至「限制性違約」級別,也就是距離徹底「違約」僅有一個級別的差異。

Fitch said the bond replacement program began, the rating of Greece will be further reduced to “restricted default" level, which is the distance completely “default" is only one level of difference.

根據希臘政府官員透露:在正式法案公佈後,民間債權人:必須在兩星期之內,考慮接受或與拒絕;到了2012年3月9日,希臘政府,將會決定:債權人接受減債法案的百份率,是否足以讓方案得以落實推行。如果一切順利,新舊債券置換計劃,將會從2012年3月12日正式開始。

According to the Greek government officials said: after the announcement of the formal bill, private creditors: within two weeks, consider accept or refuse; March 9, 2012, the Greek government will be decided: the creditors accept debt reduction percentage of the bill, is sufficient to allow the program to be implemented. If all goes well, old and new bonds of the replacement plan will be officially began on March 12, 2012.

(九)希臘政府暫時獲得喘息的機會:
希臘政府,在不到兩年的時間內,接受第二次外部的貸款救助。
2010年5月,歐元區各個會員國家的政府和國際貨幣基金組織,同意向希臘政府發放,總額為1100億歐元的第一次救助貸款。
希臘政府,如果無法得到,第二次救助貸款,希臘政府將在2012年3月份,由於無法償還到期的145億歐元國債,便會宣佈債務違約。

(9)The Greek government temporary respite:
The Greek government, within two years, accepted the relief of the secondary external loans.
In May 2010, the Government of the member countries of the euro area and the IMF agreed to the Greek government issued a total of € 110 billion in bailout loans for the first time.
Greek government cannot get a second bailout loans, the Greek government in March 2012, due to inability to pay 14.5 billion euros maturing government bonds, will be announced the debt default.

根據文件顯示:1300億歐元貸款中,其中一小部分,將會被用於2012年3月20日到期的145億歐元債務的償還。(實際金額,經過削減,大約是72.5億歐元);救助貸款的絕大多數金額,將會用於債券互換計劃以及確保希臘銀行體系運轉穩定;另外還有300億,將會用於支付,民間債權人達成還款協議後的資金需求;剩餘的230億歐元,將會替希臘銀行,提供重組資金。

According to the paper: a loan of 130 billion euros, of which a small part, will be used for the repayment of 14.5 billion euros of debt maturing on March 20, 2012.(The actual amount of reduction, about 7.25 billion euros); the vast majority of the rescue loan amount will be used for bond swap plan and to ensure that the Greek banking system functioning and stability; in addition to 30 billion will be used to pay civil creditors to reach agreement for the repayment of capital requirements; the remaining 23 billion euros will be for the Bank of Greece, restructuring funds.

如果歐元區,拒絕伸出援助之手,希臘政府只能陷入財政崩潰,最後只能宣佈無序違約,跟著整個歐洲銀行系統也會遭殃。
在這種情況下,希臘政府極可能會效仿冰島政府的做法,退出歐元區,擺脫統一貨幣的束縛,實行匯率貶值,開放市場,吸引外資進入希臘謀求發展。

If the euro zone, refused to lend a helping hand, the Greek government only turn into a financial collapse, and finally only announced disorderly breach of contract, followed by the entire European banking system will suffer.
In this case, the Greek government will most likely follow the example of the practice of the Government of Iceland, out of the euro, to get rid of the shackles of the single currency, the implementation of exchange rate depreciation, market liberalization to attract foreign investment into Greece to seek development.

假使希臘離開歐元區,將會帶來人們對歐元區,存在意義的質疑。

If Greece leave the euro zone, will bring the euro area, there are significant doubts.

有人覺得:既然歐元區本身的貨幣政策,阻礙了歐元區會員國家債務問題的解決;相反,離開歐元區,並且實行貨幣貶值,如果成為解決債務問題的主要辦法,那麼,其他債務嚴重的國家,在遇到困難時,也可能會選擇同一樣的道路。

Some people think: Since the monetary policy of the euro area itself, hindering the euro member countries debt problems to solve; the contrary, Greece leave the euro zone, and currency depreciation, if this choice, the main way to solve the debt problem, then, other heavily indebted countries in the face of difficulties, but also may choose the same road.

這樣,便會啟動了歐元解體的閘門,歐元區的存在就很危險了。因此,即使希臘礙於國內壓力,最終沒有承諾,採取緊縮措施;歐盟也會毫不猶豫,全力進行援助希臘政府解決財政困難。

Starts the disintegration of the gate of the euro, the existence of the euro area is very dangerous. Therefore, even if Greece is due to domestic pressures, and ultimately there is no commitment to take austerity measures; EU will not hesitate to efforts to aid the Greek government to solve the financial difficulties.

(十)希臘政府的債務重組計劃,仍然存在變數?

(10)Greek government’s debt restructuring plan, there are still variables?

根據希臘政府的債務重組協議的要求,民間債券持有人,對所持規模總計約1300億歐元 (約合1720億美元) 資金,進行幅度為53.5%的債務削減。歐盟的目標是:使得希臘2020年前的債務,佔GDP比例,降低至120.5%的水準。這一次的削減比例,超過了去年10月歐洲聯盟高峰會上,共同達成的50%。

Accordance with the requirements of the debt restructuring agreement with the Greek government, private bondholders, the total held by the scale of about 130 billion euros (about $ 172 billion) of funds to carry out the range of 53.5% debt reduction. EU’s objectives are: to make Greece’s 2020 debt percentage of (GDP) decreased to 120.5% of the standard. This time to cut the proportion of more than the EU summit last October, jointly reached 50%.

同時,民間債權人,還要被迫接受降低債券利率;據悉,首3年的利率是2%,接下來的5年利率是3%,八年後的利率是4.2%。這種利率安排,低於目前金融市場的利率。

Meanwhile, the private creditors, but also forced to accept lower bond interest rates; It is reported that the interest rate is 2% in the first three years of the next five annual interest rate is 3 percent, eight years after the interest rate is 4.2%. Arrangements of the current interest rate significantly lower than the current financial market interest rates.

綜合以上的論述,持有希臘國債的民間債權人,損失淨值將會達到70%-75%。
這些舉措:肯定會引發民間債券持有人的不滿,而且絕對會引起法律糾紛。

Summing up the above discussion held by private creditors of the Greek government bonds, net of losses will reach 70% -75%.
These initiatives: will certainly lead to the dissatisfaction of civil bondholders, and certainly give rise to legal disputes.

筆者覺得:民間債權人,面對兩難的困境:假使自願削減債款,將會蒙受巨大金錢損失;但是,如果不自動進行削減債款,希臘政府便會陷入無序違約;並且,歐洲區內的銀行、保險公司等金融機構,將會為希臘政府的破產,付出更大的金錢代價。

I think: private creditors face a dilemma: if voluntary reduction of debt, will suffer a huge loss of money; If, however, does not automatically cut debt, the Greek government will fall into disorder breach of contract; and the European region banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions, will be the bankruptcy of the Greek government, to pay a higher price in money.

筆者覺得:民間債權人選擇不同意削減債款,主要的原因是:有(CDS)的存在。
因為民間債權人,可以把債款削減造成的損失,有可能被(CDS)對沖和補償。

I think: private creditors choose not to agree to debt reduction, the main reason is: the existence of the (CDS).
Private creditors, the debt to reduce the losses caused, there may be (CDS) hedging and compensation.

但是,這種操作也會存在極大的風險。民間債權人的債款遭受削減後,希臘政府的債務問題,或者暫時可以緩解經濟危機;但是,金融危機的風險,會被轉移到保險公司或那些出售(CDS)保險的銀行,如果保險公司或銀行的償付能力出現問題,又將會引爆另外一類別的金融危機。

However, this debt reduction operations, there will still be at great risk. Private creditors debt suffered cuts, the Greek government’s debt problems, or temporarily alleviate the economic crisis; However, the risk of financial crisis, will be transferred to the insurance company or bank sale (CDS) insurance if the insurance company or bank solvency problems, they will detonate another category of financial crisis.

與此同時,為了幫助希臘減低負債,歐元區財長們,同意將未來5年,向希臘政府發放的救助貸款利率,降低了0.5個百分點;5年之後的貸款利率,繼續降低1.5個百分點。
這些舉措,將會令到希臘政府的還款負擔,減少14億歐元,並使希臘政府在2020年的債務水平,降低2.2個百分點。

At the same time, in order to reduce gearing to help Greece, the euro zone finance ministers agreed the next five years, issued to the Greek government rescue loan rates, lower by 0.5 percentage points; five years after the loan rates continue to reduce by 1.5 percentage points.
These initiatives will make to the Greek government’s debt service burden, a reduction of 1.4 billion euros, and the Greek government debt levels in 2020, 2.2 percentage points lower.

此外,歐元區各個會員國家,一致同意,讓歐元區各國中央銀行,將所擁有的希臘國債,直到2020年所產生的全部收益,全部交回給希臘政府。
這些利息的收益,預計將幫助希臘政府,減少18億歐元的負擔。
最後,2020年希臘債務佔(GDP)比例,降低1.8個百分點。

In addition, each member of the euro area countries, agreed to, the euro area national central banks, the Greek government bonds have the full benefits until 2020 years, all handed back to the Greek government.
In interest income is expected to help the Greek government, to reduce the burden of 1.8 billion euros.
Finally, in 2020, the Greek debt accounts (GDP) ratio, lower by 1.8 percentage points.
The troika of the European financial

(十一) 希臘政府對歐洲金融三頭馬車或會難於信守承諾?
(11)The Greek government on the troika of the European finance may be difficult to keep its promise?

有金融專家認為:希臘政府,即使暫時擺脫了債務違約的命運,國家未來的前景,仍不容樂觀。
對希臘政府來說,真正的考驗,將會在2012年3月至6月便會出現。屆時,希臘政府,為了獲得金錢援助,國會便會陸續通過,嚴苛的緊縮措施。
由於希臘的經濟,已經連續第四年,陷入衰退;國家的出口工業,競爭能力,不斷往下走低;另外,國內民眾,對政府強硬實施,經濟緊縮政策,發出強烈反對的聲音;加上混亂不堪的國內政治局面,希臘債券違約的長期風險,依然不容低估。

Some financial experts believe: that the Greek government, even temporarily get rid of the fate of debt default, the country’s future prospects, is still not optimistic.

For the Greek government, the real test will be in March 2012 to June there will be. By then, the Greek government, in order to obtain financial assistance Congress will gradually pass through the harsh austerity measures.

Greece’s economy has been the fourth consecutive year in recession; the country’s export industries, competitiveness, constantly falling down; In addition, the domestic public, tough implementation of the government, economic austerity policies, issued a strong opposition voice; coupled with confusion state of the domestic political situation, the long-term risk of default by the Greek bonds, and still not be underestimated.
The troika of the European financial seems to have been exhausted?

歐洲金融三頭馬車,看來已經筋疲力盡?

希臘政府,為了換取第二次的金錢援助,曾經向歐洲金融三頭馬車,保證繼續留在歐元區,於是,被迫做出財政緊縮的承諾,實際上,希臘政府才是「被緊縮」者;至於希臘政府,在未來的日子裏,是否能夠實踐這些承諾,仍然是未知數?

The Greek government, in exchange for financial assistance to have the troika of the European financial pledge to continue to stay in the euro area, therefore, forced to make the commitment to fiscal austerity, in fact, the Greek government is the “crunch"; as for the Greek government in the coming days, whether the practice of these commitments is still unknown?

筆者覺得:對於歐盟提出的條件,希臘政府是硬著頭皮接受的,希臘政府執政當局與國內反對派之間,肯定也經歷了反覆的討價還價和互相妥協。

I think: that the terms and conditions proposed by the European Union, the Greek government to bite the bullet and accept the Greek government between the ruling authorities and the domestic opposition, certainly also experienced repeated bargaining and compromise.

當國內政治局勢緩和後,希臘執政當局,會否繼續執行已經作出的承諾,以及,是否會恢復希臘人民原有的福利,都有可能是,希臘執政當局與反對派系,雙方談判的核心問題。

After the easing of the domestic political situation in Greece, the ruling authorities will continue to implement the commitments already made, and whether it will restore the original welfare of the Greek people, there may be, the Greek authorities in power system, the core issue of negotiations with the opposition.

希臘始於2008年的經濟衰退,已經進入第五個年頭;2011年經濟萎縮6.8%,預期今年經濟還將萎縮4%-5%,目前希臘國內失業率超過20%,青年失業率接近50%;眾多企業,紛紛倒閉,商業經營,景況慘澹。

Greece began in 2008, the recession has entered its fifth year; economy shrank by 6.8 percent in 2011, expects the economy will shrink by 4% -5%, Greece’s unemployment rate over 20%, youth unemployment is nearly 50%; many enterprises have been closed down business operations situation is bleak.

筆者認為:歐盟的援助,解決不了根本問題,希臘的景況,現在只是走一步,看一步,根本問題,始終解決不了。
目前,希臘國內的財政收支不平衡問題、經濟步伐沒有增長、全民邁向失業、國民收入不斷下降等問題,全部都沒有解決之道。

At present, the Greek domestic fiscal imbalances, the pace of the economy is not growing, all the people towards unemployment, national income is declining and other issues, all without solution.

希臘政府,若要從根本上解決財政問題,首先需要使實體經濟得到增長;通過稅收的增加,來實現財政平衡。經濟情況,在沒有實際增長的情況下,僅憑通過不斷縮小財政規模,是沒有出路的。財政緊縮會讓國內消費需求進一步萎縮,振興經濟無從談起。

Greek government to fundamentally solve the financial problems first need to make the real economy growth; to achieve fiscal balance through tax increases. Economic situation, in case there is no real growth alone is shrinking of the financial scale, there is no way out. Fiscal austerity will make domestic consumer demand to shrink further revitalize the economy out of the question.

歐盟的救援,只是從技術層面上延緩債務,主觀願望只是讓希臘政府,暫時不會破產,好讓歐洲的銀行業,繼續在泥漿中胡混求存;但是,並不能從根本上解決問題,希臘的債務,將會長期化下去。

The rescue of the European Union, but to delay debt from a technical level, subjective desire is only the Greek government, not going bankrupt, so that the European banking industry to continue to survive in the mud in the profligates; however, does not fundamentally solve the problem. Greece’s debt will go on a long-term.

(十二)13-2-2012英國《金融時報》沃爾夫岡•明肖(Wolfgang Munched)認為:

(12) 13-2-2012 British “Financial Times" Wolfgang Munched Comments:

1當希臘債務與國內生產總值之比達到60%,希臘政府才能夠擺脫危機。
2希臘政府與葡萄牙領袖,管理金融危機的經驗不足夠,又自以為是。

1 When the Greek debt, the ratio of the gross domestic product (GDP) reached 60%, the Greek government to be able to overcome the crisis.
2 Greek Government and the Portuguese leader to manage the financial crisis is not enough experience and self-righteous.

沃爾夫岡•明肖說:最理想的安排是,讓希臘與葡萄牙這兩個國家,在歐元區內違約。把用來拯救兩個國家的資金,協助這兩個國家,自行重建,同時,也可以保護其他成員國家,避免受到拖累。

Wolfgang Munched said: The best arrangement is to allow the two countries, Greece and Portugal, in default within the euro zone. Used the funds to rescue the two countries, to assist these countries in their own reconstruction, but also to protect other member countries, to avoid being dragged down.

沃爾夫岡•明肖指出,希臘與葡萄牙的問題在於:
1、缺乏管理金融危機的經驗;但是,又沒有諮詢有經驗的專家。
2、傲慢,自以為是。
3、希臘與葡萄牙的領袖,竟然會相信:希臘的「自願性,私人債權人參與削減債務計劃」(PSI)會對削減債務有很大幫助。

Wolfgang Munched pointed out that the problem is that of Greece and Portugal:
1 The leaders of Greece and Portugal, the lack of management experience in the financial crisis; however, without consulting experts with experience.
2 The leaders of Greece and Portugal: not only arrogant, but self-righteous.
3 The leaders of Greece and Portugal went so far as to believe: the Greek “voluntary, private creditor participation in debt reduction plan" (PSI) will reduce its debt of great help.

(十三)“歐洲金融三頭馬車”(歐盟委員會、歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織)的目標是:

(13)"The troika of the European financial “(European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)) is:

希臘債務重組的規模,必須足夠龐大,能夠將希臘的債務,佔據國內生產總值的比重,在2020年時,降低到120%。

The size of the Greek debt restructuring, must be large enough, the Greek debt, occupy the proportion of gross domestic product in 2020, reduced to 120%.

如果希臘政府希望實現,“債務可持續性”目標,私人債權人,參與希臘債務重組的百分率,必須足夠的高,而且,以舊債換新債券的利率要足夠的低。

If the Greek government wants to achieve, “debt sustainability" target, private creditors to participate in the percentage of the debt restructuring of Greece, must be sufficiently high, and that the old debts of a new bond interest rates are low enough.

更為重要的安排是:“自願”的標籤,將會被貼在這份「私人債權人,自願性參與削減債務計劃」的協議上,因為有了這樣的說明,就不會觸發希臘信用違約掉期的信用事件。

The more important arrangements: the “voluntary" label, will be posted on this “private creditors, voluntary participation in the debt reduction plan," the agreement, because with such a description, it will not trigger the Greek credit default swaps of credit events.

(十四)2012年3月20日,希臘政府,將會有總計144億歐元的債務,到達歸還日期,希臘政府目前沒有資金支付。如果PSI可以在到期日之前完成,那麼希臘政府便可以鬆一口氣。因為,144億歐元的債務,將會削減成72.5億歐元。並且,這些債款,可以在很多、很多年以後才到期償還。

(14)March 20, 2012, the Greek government will have a total of 14.4 billion euros of debt, reach the return date, the Greek government is currently no funds to pay. The Greek government will be able to breathe a sigh of relief if PSI can be completed before the due date.14.4 billion euros of debt will be cut into 72.5 billion euros. And these debts can be many, many years’ later, due for repayment.

如果“自願”PSI不能達成結果,那麼,希臘政府,將會被迫實施,強制執行債務重組。例如:在債券條款中加入“集體行動條款”(CAC),限制少數人,都能夠阻止PSI計畫的進行。假如這種情況出現的話,也意味著,歐洲中央銀行的資產負債表,與歐元區會員國家的雙邊貸款,將會受到重大打擊。

If the “voluntary" PSI cannot reach the result, then, the Greek government will be forced to implement, enforce the debt restructuring. For example: In terms of the bond to join the “collective action clauses (CAC) to limit a few people are able to prevent the PSI plan. If this happens, then, also means that the European Central Bank’s balance sheet, and bilateral loans of euro area member countries, will be a major blow.

根據一名希臘財政官員透露:希臘政府,希望最低限度會有66%的民間債權人,會同意參加債務互換計劃。

According to the Greek Ministry of Finance officials said: The Greek government hopes that at least 66 percent of the private creditors and willing to participate in the debt swap scheme.

根據獲得歐元區財政部長通過的,希臘民間債權人參與債務重組(PSI)協議,這次債務互換,目標在於減免1070億歐元的希臘債務負擔。民間債權人被削減債款的幅度,最低限度會達到總債款的53.5%。

According to the euro zone finance ministers, adopted by the Greek private creditors in debt restructuring (PSI) agreement, the debt swap, the goal is relief of 107 billion euros of Greek debt burden. Private creditors to reduce the magnitude of the debt, at least will reach 53.5% of the total debt.

而且,新發行的債券期限,由11年到30年不等。在債務互換計劃中,每100歐元的債券,將換得面值31.5歐元的新發行希臘債券及由(EFSF)發行面值只有15歐元的短期票據。
希臘財長Evangels Venizelos表示:希臘政府已經訂立互換債券的細節。

Moreover, the new bonds issued for a period ranging from 11 years to 30 years. Every 100 euros of bonds in the debt swap scheme, in exchange for short-term notes issued nominal value of 31.5 euros each new issue of Greek bonds and (EFSF) is only 15 euros. The Evangels Venizelos, Greek Finance Minister: The Greek government has entered into swap details of the bonds.

希臘政府同時也發佈一項聲明:希臘財政部承認,削債法規內容將會包括,所謂的集體行動條款(CAC),聲明指出,如果有多達66%的民間債權人,同意新舊債券互相交換計劃,集體行動條款(CAC)條款,將會迫使,所有拒絕債務互換的持債人,強迫接受債券互換。

The Greek government also issued a statement: Greek Ministry of Finance admitted that the cut debt regulations will include the so-called collective action clauses (CAC), said in a statement, if there are up to 66% of private creditors agreed to the new and old bonds exchange plan, the terms of the collective action clauses (CAC), will force all refused to holders of debt swap debt, forced to accept the bond swap.

(十五)民間債權人,參與希臘債務互換的結果及對CDS的影響:

(15)Private creditors to participate in the Greek debt swap results and impact on the CDS:

(1)假設有90%債權人參與債務互換:
1希臘政府的對策:希臘政府會進行債務互換,但是,不會動用CAC。

2互換債券計劃能夠成功的可能性:如果希臘政府不動用(CAC),不可能會有90%的參與比率。因為,其中至少有一種已經發行的債券,要完全重新組合(沒有不參與者)。

3如果希臘政府不動用(CAC),債券互換,觸發危機的類型:由於重組某種債券的可能性很高,可能出現(CDS)信用違約的事件。

(1)Suppose there are 90% participation of creditors in the debt swap:
A. Greek government countermeasures: The Greek government debt swap, but will not use the CAC.

B. Swap the bond program to the likelihood of success: If the Greek government not to use the (CAC), it is impossible there will be 90% participation rate. Because, of which at least an already issued bonds, to be completely reassembled (no participants).

C. If the Greek government not to use the (CAC), bond swaps, trigger the type of crisis: a high possibility of the reorganization of some bonds may occur (CDS), credit default event.

(2)假設沒有90%債權人參與債務互換:
(2) Assuming no 90% participation of creditors in the debt swap:

a希臘政府的對策:希臘政府會強制進行動用(CAC)條款,進行債務互換計劃。

b希臘政府,能夠成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)信用違約事件的影響:希臘政府動用CAC重組債券,可能會到受希臘國內法例規管。因此,不能完全排除觸發信用違約事件。

c如果希臘政府動用(CAC)條款,進行債券互換,觸發危機的類型:如果強制把依據希臘國內法例規定發出的債券,進行重新組合,債券重新組合後,很有可能會出現信用違約事件。

A. Greek government countermeasures: the government will force the use of (CAC) provisions for debt swap scheme.

B. Greek government to successfully carry out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), credit default event: the Greek government to use CAC restructuring bonds may be regulated by the Greek domestic legislation. Therefore, the Greek government cannot completely rule out the possibility to trigger a credit event.

C. If the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), the bond exchange, the type that triggered the crisis: If the government forced the bonds issued in accordance with Greek law to regroup after the re-combination of the bonds, it is likely there will be a credit event.

(3)只有75%民間債權人參與的債務互換及強制執行(CAC)條款:

a希臘政府的對策:希臘政府承認並沒有認真討論過這種情況,但是,但是,不會排除動用CAC條款,進行債務互換。
b希臘政府成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)違約的影響:希臘政府動用(CAC)條款,重新組合受到希臘國內法例規管的債券,可能觸發(CDS)信用違約。
c如果希臘政府動用(CAC)條款,進行債券互換,觸發危機的類型:如果強制把依據希臘國內法例規定發出的債券,進行重新組合,債券重新組合後,很有可能會出現信用違約事件。

(3)Only 75% of private creditors in debt swap and enforce the terms of the (CAC):
A Countermeasures: the Greek government of the Greek government to recognize and there is no serious discussion of this case, but, however, does not rule out the use of CAC terms of the debt swap.

B The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), breach of contract: the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), and reassembled by the Greek domestic legislation to regulate the bonds, may trigger the credit default (CDS).

C If the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), the bond exchange, and the type that triggered the crisis: If the government forced the bonds issued in accordance with Greek law to re-combination, most likely there will be credit event.

(4)只有少於75%民間債權人參與的債務互換及可能不強制執行(CAC)條款:
(4)Only less than 75% of private creditors to participate in the debt swap and may not enforce the terms of the (CAC):

a希臘政府的對策:希臘政府可能進行自願性質的無限定債務互換,可能不會動用(CAC)條款。
b希臘政府成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)違約的影響:希臘政府可能會進行資源的無限定債務互換。希臘政府預料:所有發行的債券,最後有可能,都有不參與者。希臘政府可能償付債款給不參與債券互換者。
c觸發危機的類型:沒有進行完全重新組合,某種類別債券的計劃,所以不清楚是否觸發(CDS)信用違約:希臘政府認為:如果要償付沒有參與換債計劃者,也可能會發生無法償還貸款的信用違約事件。

A. The Greek government’s responses: the Greek government may be an indefinite voluntary debt swap may not spend the terms of the (CAC).
B. The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt and breach of contract (CDS): The Greek government resources may be an indefinite debt swap. The Greek government is expected to: All bonds issued, and finally there may be, there are not participants. The Greek government may pay the debt to not participate in bond swaps.
C. Trigger the type of crisis: There is no completely reassembled, the plan of certain types of bonds, so do not know whether to trigger credit default (CDS): Greek Government considers that: If you want to pay no participation-for-debt plan, may also occur and cannot repay loans the credit event.

(5)希臘政府成功進行換債的可能性及對(CDS)違約的影響:
a希臘政府,有可能會進行由政府提供資源補償的債務互換。希臘政府預料:所有發行的債券,最後有可能,都有不參與者。希臘政府可能償付債款給不參與債券互換者。
b觸發危機的類型:希臘政府,沒有進行債券完全重新組合計劃,某種類別債券的計劃,政府不會清楚,會否觸發(CDS)信用違約。
c希臘政府認為:政府如果要償付沒有參與換債計劃者,也可能會發生,無法償還貸款的信用違約事件。

(5)The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), breach of contract:
A. Greek government may carry out the debt swap by the government to provide resources for compensation. The Greek government is expected to: All bonds issued, and finally there may be, there are not participants. The Greek government may pay the debt to not participate in bond swaps.
B. Type that triggered the crisis: the Greek Government, without the bond completely reassembled plan, the plan of certain types of bonds, the Government will not clear whether it will trigger the credit default (CDS).
C. The Greek government: if the Government wants to pay did not participate in the for-debt plan, may also occur and cannot repay the loan credit event.

(6)民間債權人參與率不足70%的債務互換計劃及(CAC)條款即時生效:
a由換債協議觸發的金融危機:沒有了(PSI)和債務互換協議。
b換債成功的可能性及對CDS的影響:不可能出現觸發(CDS)違約的重新組合。但是,大批2012年3月20的到期債券,存在無法償付的風險。
c觸發危機的類型:希臘政府無法償付2012年3月20的到期債券。

(6)Private creditors to participate in the rate of less than 70% of the debt swap plan (CAC) provisions with immediate effect:
A. The financial crisis triggered by the exchange of debt agreement: There is no debt swap agreement.
B. Convertible debt and the possibility of default (CDS): cannot trigger the re-combination (CDS), breach of contract. However, a large number of March 20, 2012 maturity bonds, there is the risk of unpayable.
C. Trigger the type of crisis: the Greek Government is unable to pay the 20 March 2012 maturity bonds.

親愛的讀者們:您覺得希臘政府:能夠成功以舊債置換新債嗎?
Dear Readers: Do you think the Greek government: be able to successfully exchange of new debt to old debts?

(十六)根據希臘債券民間債權人代表,國際金融協會( I.I.F.)主席達拉勒(Charles Dollars)表示:希臘政府將會在2012年03月12日成功與民間債權人,進行債務互換計劃,但是,有報道指出:仍然有部份債主,未有意願參與換債計劃,最終或會觸發(CDS)賠償事件。

(16)According to the Greek bonds, private creditors on behalf of the President of the Institute of International Finance, According to the Greek bonds, private creditors on behalf of the President of the Institute of International Finance, said: The Greek government will be March 12, 2012, to reach an agreement with private creditors, the debt swap scheme. However, it has been reported: there are still some lenders not willing to participate-for-debt plan, and ultimately may trigger compensation in the event of (CDS). Charles Dollars said: The Greek government will be March 12, 2012, to reach an agreement with private creditors, the debt swap scheme. However, it has been reported: there are still some lenders not willing to participate-for-debt plan, and ultimately may trigger compensation in the event of (CDS).

但是,達拉勒表示:對希臘換債過程順利,感到樂觀,達拉勒預料,民間債權人的參與比率,將會「頗高」;達拉勒又指出:(CDS)違約的賠償問題,不會影響到換債的過程。

However, Charles Dollars: Greece-for-debt process smoothly, and are optimistic, Charles Dollars expected, the participation rate of the private creditors will be “high"; Charles Dollars also pointed out that: (CDS), breach of the issue of compensation, not will affect the process of changing debt.

儘管如此,英國《每日電訊報》報道,由於參與換債的債權人比率,沒有達到90%,希臘政府正在考慮強制執行「集體行動條款」( CAC),用來逼使民間債權人參與換債計劃。

Nevertheless, the British “The Daily Telegraph" reported that due to the creditors involved in the exchange of debt ratio did not reach 90%, the Greek government is considering the enforcement of collective action clauses (CAC), is used to force private creditors to participate in the convertible debt plan.

希臘政府表示,只會在有 90%以上債權人同意的情況下,才會展開換債行動。

如果參與換債人數比率,沒有達到 90%,但是,人數仍然多於 75%時,希臘政府將會與民間債權人進行談判。如果一切順利,歐盟領袖將會向希臘政府,發放第二次的緊急貸款。

The Greek government said that the only action in more than 90% of creditors have agreed to the situation will only change the debt.
If the debt proportion of people involved in change, did not reach 90%, however, remained more than 75%, the Greek government will work with the private creditors to negotiate. If all goes well, the EU leaders will be to the Greek government issued a second emergency loan.

(十七)筆者對外匯市場的認識:
日本貨幣短線的目標在:94.9
(17)Author on the foreign exchange market:
Japanese currency short-term goal: 94.9

美元兌日元匯價,成功突破81.67高位之後,曾經到達81.86水平,直逼82.00的心理關口。
U.S. dollar against the yen, after a successful break through the 81.67 high, has reached the 81.86 level, almost equal to 82.00 of the psychological barrier.

美元兌日本圓的技術指標,已經到達100個星期(SMA)的82.18關鍵阻力位。
美元兌日元匯價:在於2012年3月2日以81.78水平收市。再一次以接近整個星期內的最高點收市,並且更在周線圖上,呈現連續4個星期,向上攀升的形態。
美元兌日本圓匯價,成功突破81.67高位之後,曾一度達到81.86水平,直逼82.00的心理關口。

The technical specifications of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency have reached 82.18 key resistance levels of 100 weeks (SMA).
U.S. dollar against Japanese currency: March 2, 2012 to the close of the 81.78 level.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar was once again close to the highest point of closing throughout the week, and on the weekly chart, showing the four weeks in a row, the shape-up.
U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency exchange rate in Japan, successfully break through the 81.67 high, has once reached the 81.86 level, almost equal to 82.00 of the psychological barrier.

如果,這一個星期,即(2012-03-05至2012-03-09),美元兌日圓匯價,可以順利向上升,並且,再一次成功在高點位置區收市。由於匯價區,是自從2007年8月以來,首次返回100個星期(SMA)區間內收市,故此,在技術分析層面上,有重大意義。同時,反映美元兌日圓匯價,自從2007年以來的大弱勢,已經正式暫告一段落。

One week (2012-03-05 to 2012-03-09), the U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate can be smoothly to rise, and again in the location area of the high point of closing. Because the exchange rate area is back to 100 weeks (SMA) for the first time since August 2007, the closing range, therefore, the level of technical analysis, there is great significance. At the same time, reflecting the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, since the big weakness since 2007, has officially ended.

美元兌日圓的匯價,從今往後,6個月內,絕對不適宜掉以輕心,因為美元兌日本圓的匯價,有可能會在毫無癥兆下,呈現急劇上升或下降的局面。至於,進入匯市策略,應該繼續跟隨順勢,買入美元兌日圓為主。
筆者的目標:匯價會朝着2010年的94.98高位,逐漸向上邁進。

U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate, six months from now on, should by no means be taken lightly, because the U.S. dollar against the Japanese Yuan currency exchange rate may under no signs, showing a sharp rise or fall situation. As to enter the foreign exchange market strategy, should continue to follow homeopathy, the buying of the dollar against the yen.
The author’s goal: the exchange rate will move toward the 94.98 high in 2010, gradually moving up.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。
My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

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