（Chapter 23）希臘舊債置換新債，經過國際掉期及衍生工具協會（ISDA）仲裁，不會觸發（CD S）信貸違約掉期？
（Chapter 23）Greek old debts replacement of new debt, arbitration of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) will not trigger credit default swaps?
International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) Commentary:
International Swaps and Derivatives Association is a large global trade organization of companies who trade in private and over-the-counter derivatives. It was responsible for the creation of the ISDA master agreement, a standardized contract for trading in derivatives.
（1）of the International Swaps and derivatives Association (ISDA) announced after lengthy meetings: a committee composed of 15 large banks and hedge funds, by a unanimous decision: the plans of the replacement of old debts of the Greek new debt will not trigger the credit default swaps(CDS).
However, this time the ruling did not deal with the Greek government may join the “collective action clauses (CAC). Therefore, the trigger of Greece, the risk of credit default swaps (CDS), will still exist.
ISDA received two for a ruling related to the start of Greek credit default swaps（CDS）, including:
requires ISDA ruling: Greece’s debt reduction plan: will lead to private creditors, the debt service prioritization, alignment after the European Central Bank, the private creditors think that is unreasonable.
(2) the Greek government reached agreement with private creditors, would constitute a credit default swap (CDS).
However, the SDA unanimously ruled that the two applications, the result of the ruling, are invalid.
ISDA: The above two complaints would not constitute a credit event of default , Greek government bonds, net of $ 3.25 billion in credit default swaps, will not be required to pay compensation.
However, the ISDA remains a saving clause. ISDA continues: the case of Greece will continue to develop. ISDA’s decision does not affect the private creditors, future requirements; apply for arbitration opportunity to start the Greek debt default.
Investors in the financial market is estimated that involved in replacement of new debt to private creditors, and automatically participate in a number of debt reduction, will never reach more than 90%, the Greek government, and ultimately to introduce, as well as the use of " collective action clauses “to force the creditors replacement new debt in order to reduce the debt plan can proceed smoothly.
However, according to the rules of the ISDA, assuming that the ISDA utilized the “collective action clauses", financial markets and investors will be considered: the Greek government has actually to breach of contract.
ISDA members of the Committee, including 15 voting members; members include Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank, the ISDA has two advisory committee, the ISDA award process, investors are often criticized the lack of transparency; every ISDA made rulings are not required to explain the reasons for the award. Investors cannot be appealed, the financial sector, has repeatedly pointed out: the ruling system, likely to cause a conflict of interest.
（3）of the Greek “private creditors voluntary participation to reduce debt plan" (PSI) explanation:
1歐元區核心國家Euro area core countries
2歐元區會員國家Euro area member states
3歐洲中央銀行European Central Bank
4國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）International Monetary Fund (IMF)
5希臘民間債權人Greece’s private creditors
Greek government bonds, involving the interests of the institution, include: the whole of Europe and the global financial organizations, institutions or organizations, with each other, are weaving a huge game network. In the multilateral game network, it may be alternating results, and the results will become the “life and death moment" in Greece.
Although the European Central Bank in the Greek government bonds and the role of other member countries, the role of official creditors, yet failed to establish their positioning. However, negotiations between the Greek Government and private creditors, is heating up, the expected results will soon be.
(4) The Greek government debt reduction process may take collective action clauses “or to agree to withdraw clauses (CAC) explanation:
Fitch rating agency, Greece’s sovereign debt rating lowered to “the most junk," may lead to financial markets panic.
February 22, 2012, leaders of the euro area reached to help the Greek government to ease the financial difficulties the agreement, the rating agency Fitch immediately Greece Default Rating (IDR) down to the C-class level by the CCC.
“C rating" is Fitch’s rating system, included in the spam level 11, that is: The inclusion of the “junk".
Fitch said the Greek “C rating" Description: Greece within the near future, most likely the case of default.
If the debt swap scheme, after the successful completion of: Greek bond issuer default rating will be reduced to “limited breach “.
Fitch’s downgrade of measures and does not let the financial markets by surprise. Analysts believe that the short term, Greece also need to meet a number of conditions in order to obtain a second round of the loan; and private creditors to participate in (PSI), will lead to increased likelihood of defaults trigger CDS. Long period of time, Greece also needs to face: slow economic growth worries.
（5）Greek government in the near future, it may be breach of contract?
希臘政府又發出聲明，擴充了債務互換的條件，並且確認：希臘政府有意通過希臘法律，將會在債券互換協定中，引入「集體行動條款」(Collective Action Clauses，簡稱CACs).
The Greek government and the private sector creditors have reached a basic consensus in the PSI swap. Include: reduction of 53.5% of the nominal value of the Greek government bond market accounting.
The Greek government issued a statement: expansion of the debt swaps conditions, and confirmed: The Greek government intends to Greek law, will be in the bond swap agreements, the introduction of collective action clauses “(Collective, Action Clauses referred to CACs).
惠譽在發佈的降級聲明中指出：這一次債券互換計劃完成後，將會構成，符合評級機構標準的「壞債互換」要求，(Distressed Debt Exchange，簡稱DDE)。
Fitch downgrade released a statement that: after the completion of the bond swap plan would constitute" bad debt swap “requirements, in line with the rating agencies Standard (Distressed Debt Exchange, or DDE).
Fitch said: After the implementation of the debt swap, the rating of Greece will be reduced to “limited breach of contract" (the Restricted the Default referred to the RD).
The implementation of the new debt swap, the sovereignty of the Greek debt rating will also be removed the rating of “limited breach of contract"
And again according to the rating agencies, on the structure and credit-default situation, the assessment carried out rating.
Fitch rating agency also said: Greek government bonds were affected by the impact of debt swap, including: who are currently not being pay, but was included in the mandatory restructuring of bond rating, the rating will be lowered to D-level.
（6）G reek bond investors will be forced to accept the reality of debt reduction?
Accordance with the agreement of the euro zone finance ministers through the PSI, this time debt swap program, the goal is relief for the Greek debt burden of 107 billion euros, equivalent to 50% of the 2011 Greek GDP.
According to the PSI agreement provides that: private creditors were forced to cut the debt margin, up 53.5 percent.
Moreover, by the Greek government re-issued bonds of the redemption period, ranging from 11 to 30 years. Per € 100 face value of old bonds in the debt swap agreement, will be in exchange for 31.5 euros each new issue of Greek bonds; short-term notes issued by the (EFSF) the nominal value of € 15.
Greek Finance Minister Evangels Venizelos on February 21, 2012, the Greek government immediately legislates to set out the details of the swap bonds.
The Greek government further issued a statement saying: replacement bonds and regulations set by the Greek government, including the so-called collective action clauses (CAC), that is: if the majority held the consent of the Lenders, the implementation of the swap plan, this provision will force: all refused to debt swaps, debt holders, must accept the swap.
（7）Financial markets, the Greek government can implement execution-for-debt agreement, still holds a questioning attitude?
In fact, the Fitch downgrade of Greece’s debt rating also reflects the financial markets, the economic prospects of the Greek, still holds a questioning attitude.
The short term, a so-called agreements already reached, or need to obtain parliamentary approval of part of the Eurozone member states, this one procedure, in fact, already exists whether to cut Greek debt agreement, can implementation, there have been uncertainties.
Because, to ensure that the Greek government for the second batch of bailout loans, Greece also needs to meet the three conditions laid down by the troika of the European financial:
First, prior to the end of this month the euro area the various Governments of Member States or (IMF) signed the new program, Greece must meet the requirements of 24 “early action", there is hope of a new two loan assistance. These requirements include: the dismissal of the poor performance of the taxman; through legal monopoly industries, the liberalization of the development; to tighten the rules of bribery; June 2012, to sell at least two state-owned enterprises.
b Second, the Greek government must agree to large-scale international monitors permanently stationed in Greece, and thus immediate supervision of the Greek government’s spending decisions.
Third, the troika of the European financial rescue loan granted full deposited into an escrow account, the Greek government must ensure that the account balance at any time be able to pay at least three months, the debt should be repaid. However, this escrow account will be temporary in nature, because the Greek government has agreed to amend the constitution, debt arrears as financial expenditure, the top priority project.
（8）In addition, Goldman Sachs further stated that the Greek government, the existence of two alarming reality:
A Greek government in the process of replacement of old debts of the new debt may trigger (CDS) of compensation recourse.
B Greek economic growth is slow, worrying prospects for Greece, it is very pessimistic.
Because, first aspect, the private creditors: due to increased need to bear the loss, the Greek government, may be the use of collective action clauses (CAC), to force creditors to accept the administrative measures of the new debt for old debt, and trigger (CDS) insurance claims wave. These are the recent financial market continuing source of market volatility.
The second: is not welcomed by the people of Greece, economic structural reform and privatization of state enterprises, is able to continue to implement, it is still unknown. Because of these initiatives, may result in Greece and other EU member states, further friction, lead to the risk of the Greek out of the euro.
As early as before the Fitch assessment downgrade of Greek government bonds, the Greek government has passed, the purpose is to cut close to 100 billion euros, the bond replacement bill for the Greek government.
The Greek government immediately put controversial provisions of the bill: including force private creditors to accept the debt reduction program, and submitted to the Greek Parliament.
Informed sources, the actual reduction of debt of the ultimate creditor, may be as high as 75%.
According to the contents of the bill, the Greek government: will by Parliament to give statutory powers to carry out large-scale change the content of the national debt contracts and the implementation of the so-called: collective action clauses (CAC).Subject to the consent of the majority of creditors, all the terms of the new bond will apply to all creditors with government bonds.
However, Fitch measure the point of view, the Greek government for parliamentary empowerment to enforce replacement of old debts of the new debt initiative, will constitute the implementation of the forced bond replacement, this will be prompted Fitch, Greek bonds the implementation of further substantial downgrade.
Fitch said the bond replacement program began, the rating of Greece will be further reduced to “restricted default" level, which is the distance completely “default" is only one level of difference.
According to the Greek government officials said: after the announcement of the formal bill, private creditors: within two weeks, consider accept or refuse; March 9, 2012, the Greek government will be decided: the creditors accept debt reduction percentage of the bill, is sufficient to allow the program to be implemented. If all goes well, old and new bonds of the replacement plan will be officially began on March 12, 2012.
（9）The Greek government temporary respite:
The Greek government, within two years, accepted the relief of the secondary external loans.
In May 2010, the Government of the member countries of the euro area and the IMF agreed to the Greek government issued a total of € 110 billion in bailout loans for the first time.
Greek government cannot get a second bailout loans, the Greek government in March 2012, due to inability to pay 14.5 billion euros maturing government bonds, will be announced the debt default.
According to the paper: a loan of 130 billion euros, of which a small part, will be used for the repayment of 14.5 billion euros of debt maturing on March 20, 2012.(The actual amount of reduction, about 7.25 billion euros); the vast majority of the rescue loan amount will be used for bond swap plan and to ensure that the Greek banking system functioning and stability; in addition to 30 billion will be used to pay civil creditors to reach agreement for the repayment of capital requirements; the remaining 23 billion euros will be for the Bank of Greece, restructuring funds.
If the euro zone, refused to lend a helping hand, the Greek government only turn into a financial collapse, and finally only announced disorderly breach of contract, followed by the entire European banking system will suffer.
In this case, the Greek government will most likely follow the example of the practice of the Government of Iceland, out of the euro, to get rid of the shackles of the single currency, the implementation of exchange rate depreciation, market liberalization to attract foreign investment into Greece to seek development.
If Greece leave the euro zone, will bring the euro area, there are significant doubts.
Some people think: Since the monetary policy of the euro area itself, hindering the euro member countries debt problems to solve; the contrary, Greece leave the euro zone, and currency depreciation, if this choice, the main way to solve the debt problem, then, other heavily indebted countries in the face of difficulties, but also may choose the same road.
Starts the disintegration of the gate of the euro, the existence of the euro area is very dangerous. Therefore, even if Greece is due to domestic pressures, and ultimately there is no commitment to take austerity measures; EU will not hesitate to efforts to aid the Greek government to solve the financial difficulties.
（10）Greek government’s debt restructuring plan, there are still variables?
根據希臘政府的債務重組協議的要求，民間債券持有人，對所持規模總計約1300億歐元 (約合1720億美元) 資金，進行幅度為53.5%的債務削減。歐盟的目標是：使得希臘2020年前的債務，佔GDP比例，降低至120.5%的水準。這一次的削減比例，超過了去年10月歐洲聯盟高峰會上，共同達成的50%。
Accordance with the requirements of the debt restructuring agreement with the Greek government, private bondholders, the total held by the scale of about 130 billion euros (about $ 172 billion) of funds to carry out the range of 53.5% debt reduction. EU’s objectives are: to make Greece’s 2020 debt percentage of （GDP） decreased to 120.5% of the standard. This time to cut the proportion of more than the EU summit last October, jointly reached 50%.
Meanwhile, the private creditors, but also forced to accept lower bond interest rates; It is reported that the interest rate is 2% in the first three years of the next five annual interest rate is 3 percent, eight years after the interest rate is 4.2%. Arrangements of the current interest rate significantly lower than the current financial market interest rates.
Summing up the above discussion held by private creditors of the Greek government bonds, net of losses will reach 70% -75%.
These initiatives: will certainly lead to the dissatisfaction of civil bondholders, and certainly give rise to legal disputes.
I think: private creditors face a dilemma: if voluntary reduction of debt, will suffer a huge loss of money; If, however, does not automatically cut debt, the Greek government will fall into disorder breach of contract; and the European region banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions, will be the bankruptcy of the Greek government, to pay a higher price in money.
I think: private creditors choose not to agree to debt reduction, the main reason is: the existence of the (CDS).
Private creditors, the debt to reduce the losses caused, there may be (CDS) hedging and compensation.
However, this debt reduction operations, there will still be at great risk. Private creditors debt suffered cuts, the Greek government’s debt problems, or temporarily alleviate the economic crisis; However, the risk of financial crisis, will be transferred to the insurance company or bank sale (CDS) insurance if the insurance company or bank solvency problems, they will detonate another category of financial crisis.
At the same time, in order to reduce gearing to help Greece, the euro zone finance ministers agreed the next five years, issued to the Greek government rescue loan rates, lower by 0.5 percentage points; five years after the loan rates continue to reduce by 1.5 percentage points.
These initiatives will make to the Greek government’s debt service burden, a reduction of 1.4 billion euros, and the Greek government debt levels in 2020, 2.2 percentage points lower.
In addition, each member of the euro area countries, agreed to, the euro area national central banks, the Greek government bonds have the full benefits until 2020 years, all handed back to the Greek government.
In interest income is expected to help the Greek government, to reduce the burden of 1.8 billion euros.
Finally, in 2020, the Greek debt accounts (GDP) ratio, lower by 1.8 percentage points.
The troika of the European financial
（11）The Greek government on the troika of the European finance may be difficult to keep its promise?
Some financial experts believe: that the Greek government, even temporarily get rid of the fate of debt default, the country’s future prospects, is still not optimistic.
For the Greek government, the real test will be in March 2012 to June there will be. By then, the Greek government, in order to obtain financial assistance Congress will gradually pass through the harsh austerity measures.
Greece’s economy has been the fourth consecutive year in recession; the country’s export industries, competitiveness, constantly falling down; In addition, the domestic public, tough implementation of the government, economic austerity policies, issued a strong opposition voice; coupled with confusion state of the domestic political situation, the long-term risk of default by the Greek bonds, and still not be underestimated.
The troika of the European financial seems to have been exhausted?
The Greek government, in exchange for financial assistance to have the troika of the European financial pledge to continue to stay in the euro area, therefore, forced to make the commitment to fiscal austerity, in fact, the Greek government is the “crunch"; as for the Greek government in the coming days, whether the practice of these commitments is still unknown?
I think: that the terms and conditions proposed by the European Union, the Greek government to bite the bullet and accept the Greek government between the ruling authorities and the domestic opposition, certainly also experienced repeated bargaining and compromise.
After the easing of the domestic political situation in Greece, the ruling authorities will continue to implement the commitments already made, and whether it will restore the original welfare of the Greek people, there may be, the Greek authorities in power system, the core issue of negotiations with the opposition.
Greece began in 2008, the recession has entered its fifth year; economy shrank by 6.8 percent in 2011, expects the economy will shrink by 4% -5%, Greece’s unemployment rate over 20%, youth unemployment is nearly 50%; many enterprises have been closed down business operations situation is bleak.
At present, the Greek domestic fiscal imbalances, the pace of the economy is not growing, all the people towards unemployment, national income is declining and other issues, all without solution.
Greek government to fundamentally solve the financial problems first need to make the real economy growth; to achieve fiscal balance through tax increases. Economic situation, in case there is no real growth alone is shrinking of the financial scale, there is no way out. Fiscal austerity will make domestic consumer demand to shrink further revitalize the economy out of the question.
The rescue of the European Union, but to delay debt from a technical level, subjective desire is only the Greek government, not going bankrupt, so that the European banking industry to continue to survive in the mud in the profligates; however, does not fundamentally solve the problem. Greece’s debt will go on a long-term.
(12) 13-2-2012 British “Financial Times" Wolfgang Munched Comments:
1 When the Greek debt, the ratio of the gross domestic product (GDP) reached 60%, the Greek government to be able to overcome the crisis.
2 Greek Government and the Portuguese leader to manage the financial crisis is not enough experience and self-righteous.
Wolfgang Munched said: The best arrangement is to allow the two countries, Greece and Portugal, in default within the euro zone. Used the funds to rescue the two countries, to assist these countries in their own reconstruction, but also to protect other member countries, to avoid being dragged down.
Wolfgang Munched pointed out that the problem is that of Greece and Portugal:
1 The leaders of Greece and Portugal, the lack of management experience in the financial crisis; however, without consulting experts with experience.
2 The leaders of Greece and Portugal: not only arrogant, but self-righteous.
3 The leaders of Greece and Portugal went so far as to believe: the Greek “voluntary, private creditor participation in debt reduction plan" (PSI) will reduce its debt of great help.
（13）"The troika of the European financial “(European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)) is:
The size of the Greek debt restructuring, must be large enough, the Greek debt, occupy the proportion of gross domestic product in 2020, reduced to 120%.
If the Greek government wants to achieve, “debt sustainability" target, private creditors to participate in the percentage of the debt restructuring of Greece, must be sufficiently high, and that the old debts of a new bond interest rates are low enough.
The more important arrangements: the “voluntary" label, will be posted on this “private creditors, voluntary participation in the debt reduction plan," the agreement, because with such a description, it will not trigger the Greek credit default swaps of credit events.
（14）March 20, 2012, the Greek government will have a total of 14.4 billion euros of debt, reach the return date, the Greek government is currently no funds to pay. The Greek government will be able to breathe a sigh of relief if PSI can be completed before the due date.14.4 billion euros of debt will be cut into 72.5 billion euros. And these debts can be many, many years’ later, due for repayment.
If the “voluntary" PSI cannot reach the result, then, the Greek government will be forced to implement, enforce the debt restructuring. For example: In terms of the bond to join the “collective action clauses (CAC) to limit a few people are able to prevent the PSI plan. If this happens, then, also means that the European Central Bank’s balance sheet, and bilateral loans of euro area member countries, will be a major blow.
According to the Greek Ministry of Finance officials said: The Greek government hopes that at least 66 percent of the private creditors and willing to participate in the debt swap scheme.
According to the euro zone finance ministers, adopted by the Greek private creditors in debt restructuring (PSI) agreement, the debt swap, the goal is relief of 107 billion euros of Greek debt burden. Private creditors to reduce the magnitude of the debt, at least will reach 53.5% of the total debt.
Moreover, the new bonds issued for a period ranging from 11 years to 30 years. Every 100 euros of bonds in the debt swap scheme, in exchange for short-term notes issued nominal value of 31.5 euros each new issue of Greek bonds and (EFSF) is only 15 euros. The Evangels Venizelos, Greek Finance Minister: The Greek government has entered into swap details of the bonds.
The Greek government also issued a statement: Greek Ministry of Finance admitted that the cut debt regulations will include the so-called collective action clauses (CAC), said in a statement, if there are up to 66% of private creditors agreed to the new and old bonds exchange plan, the terms of the collective action clauses (CAC), will force all refused to holders of debt swap debt, forced to accept the bond swap.
（15）Private creditors to participate in the Greek debt swap results and impact on the CDS:
（1）Suppose there are 90% participation of creditors in the debt swap:
A. Greek government countermeasures: The Greek government debt swap, but will not use the CAC.
B. Swap the bond program to the likelihood of success: If the Greek government not to use the (CAC), it is impossible there will be 90% participation rate. Because, of which at least an already issued bonds, to be completely reassembled (no participants).
C. If the Greek government not to use the (CAC), bond swaps, trigger the type of crisis: a high possibility of the reorganization of some bonds may occur (CDS), credit default event.
（2） Assuming no 90% participation of creditors in the debt swap:
A. Greek government countermeasures: the government will force the use of (CAC) provisions for debt swap scheme.
B. Greek government to successfully carry out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), credit default event: the Greek government to use CAC restructuring bonds may be regulated by the Greek domestic legislation. Therefore, the Greek government cannot completely rule out the possibility to trigger a credit event.
C. If the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), the bond exchange, the type that triggered the crisis: If the government forced the bonds issued in accordance with Greek law to regroup after the re-combination of the bonds, it is likely there will be a credit event.
（3）Only 75% of private creditors in debt swap and enforce the terms of the (CAC):
A Countermeasures: the Greek government of the Greek government to recognize and there is no serious discussion of this case, but, however, does not rule out the use of CAC terms of the debt swap.
B The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), breach of contract: the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), and reassembled by the Greek domestic legislation to regulate the bonds, may trigger the credit default (CDS).
C If the Greek government to use the terms of the (CAC), the bond exchange, and the type that triggered the crisis: If the government forced the bonds issued in accordance with Greek law to re-combination, most likely there will be credit event.
（4）Only less than 75% of private creditors to participate in the debt swap and may not enforce the terms of the (CAC):
A. The Greek government’s responses: the Greek government may be an indefinite voluntary debt swap may not spend the terms of the (CAC).
B. The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt and breach of contract (CDS): The Greek government resources may be an indefinite debt swap. The Greek government is expected to: All bonds issued, and finally there may be, there are not participants. The Greek government may pay the debt to not participate in bond swaps.
C. Trigger the type of crisis: There is no completely reassembled, the plan of certain types of bonds, so do not know whether to trigger credit default (CDS): Greek Government considers that: If you want to pay no participation-for-debt plan, may also occur and cannot repay loans the credit event.
（5）The Greek government successfully carried out the possibility of changing debt (CDS), breach of contract:
A. Greek government may carry out the debt swap by the government to provide resources for compensation. The Greek government is expected to: All bonds issued, and finally there may be, there are not participants. The Greek government may pay the debt to not participate in bond swaps.
B. Type that triggered the crisis: the Greek Government, without the bond completely reassembled plan, the plan of certain types of bonds, the Government will not clear whether it will trigger the credit default (CDS).
C. The Greek government: if the Government wants to pay did not participate in the for-debt plan, may also occur and cannot repay the loan credit event.
（6）Private creditors to participate in the rate of less than 70% of the debt swap plan (CAC) provisions with immediate effect:
A. The financial crisis triggered by the exchange of debt agreement: There is no debt swap agreement.
B. Convertible debt and the possibility of default (CDS): cannot trigger the re-combination (CDS), breach of contract. However, a large number of March 20, 2012 maturity bonds, there is the risk of unpayable.
C. Trigger the type of crisis: the Greek Government is unable to pay the 20 March 2012 maturity bonds.
Dear Readers: Do you think the Greek government: be able to successfully exchange of new debt to old debts?
（十六）根據希臘債券民間債權人代表，國際金融協會（ I.I.F.）主席達拉勒（Charles Dollars）表示：希臘政府將會在2012年03月12日成功與民間債權人，進行債務互換計劃，但是，有報道指出：仍然有部份債主，未有意願參與換債計劃，最終或會觸發（CDS）賠償事件。
（16）According to the Greek bonds, private creditors on behalf of the President of the Institute of International Finance, According to the Greek bonds, private creditors on behalf of the President of the Institute of International Finance, said: The Greek government will be March 12, 2012, to reach an agreement with private creditors, the debt swap scheme. However, it has been reported: there are still some lenders not willing to participate-for-debt plan, and ultimately may trigger compensation in the event of (CDS). Charles Dollars said: The Greek government will be March 12, 2012, to reach an agreement with private creditors, the debt swap scheme. However, it has been reported: there are still some lenders not willing to participate-for-debt plan, and ultimately may trigger compensation in the event of (CDS).
However, Charles Dollars: Greece-for-debt process smoothly, and are optimistic, Charles Dollars expected, the participation rate of the private creditors will be “high"; Charles Dollars also pointed out that: (CDS), breach of the issue of compensation, not will affect the process of changing debt.
Nevertheless, the British “The Daily Telegraph" reported that due to the creditors involved in the exchange of debt ratio did not reach 90%, the Greek government is considering the enforcement of collective action clauses (CAC), is used to force private creditors to participate in the convertible debt plan.
如果參與換債人數比率，沒有達到 90%，但是，人數仍然多於 75%時，希臘政府將會與民間債權人進行談判。如果一切順利，歐盟領袖將會向希臘政府，發放第二次的緊急貸款。
The Greek government said that the only action in more than 90% of creditors have agreed to the situation will only change the debt.
If the debt proportion of people involved in change, did not reach 90%, however, remained more than 75%, the Greek government will work with the private creditors to negotiate. If all goes well, the EU leaders will be to the Greek government issued a second emergency loan.
（17）Author on the foreign exchange market:
Japanese currency short-term goal: 94.9
U.S. dollar against the yen, after a successful break through the 81.67 high, has reached the 81.86 level, almost equal to 82.00 of the psychological barrier.
The technical specifications of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency have reached 82.18 key resistance levels of 100 weeks (SMA).
U.S. dollar against Japanese currency: March 2, 2012 to the close of the 81.78 level.
Against the Japanese currency, the dollar was once again close to the highest point of closing throughout the week, and on the weekly chart, showing the four weeks in a row, the shape-up.
U.S. dollar against the Japanese currency exchange rate in Japan, successfully break through the 81.67 high, has once reached the 81.86 level, almost equal to 82.00 of the psychological barrier.
One week (2012-03-05 to 2012-03-09), the U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate can be smoothly to rise, and again in the location area of the high point of closing. Because the exchange rate area is back to 100 weeks (SMA) for the first time since August 2007, the closing range, therefore, the level of technical analysis, there is great significance. At the same time, reflecting the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, since the big weakness since 2007, has officially ended.
U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate, six months from now on, should by no means be taken lightly, because the U.S. dollar against the Japanese Yuan currency exchange rate may under no signs, showing a sharp rise or fall situation. As to enter the foreign exchange market strategy, should continue to follow homeopathy, the buying of the dollar against the yen.
The author’s goal: the exchange rate will move toward the 94.98 high in 2010, gradually moving up.
My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.