(Chapter 22)The Greek government should make an emergency law, and force the creditor to replacement of new debt?


(Chapter 22)希臘政府應該訂立緊急法律,強逼債主置換新債?
(Chapter 22)The Greek government should make an emergency law, and force the creditor to replacement of new debt?
The troika of the European financial seems to have been exhausted?
歐洲金融三頭馬車,看來已經筋疲力盡?

“歐洲金融三頭馬車” (歐盟委員會、歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織)
" The troika of the European financial " (European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF))

本期論述,我希望用兩句中國成語作為開場白:這兩句成語都是古代中國人,處理棘手難題時的座右銘。
The current discourse, I hope that as the opening of two Chinese idioms.
The two idioms are ancient Chinese motto when dealing with difficult problems.

第一句中國成語是希望與看來已經筋疲力盡的歐洲金融三頭馬車,互相勉勵。
The first sentence of the Chinese idiom, hope, seems to have been exhausted the troika of the European financial and encourages each other.

第二句中國成語,是希望與希臘的領袖,互相勉勵。
The second sentence of the Chinese idiom, the leaders of Greece, and encourage each other.

1「釜底抽薪」:(fǔ dǐ chōu xīn)
Take away the fire wood from under the cauldron;
The meaning of the idiom is: take a drastic measure to deal with a situation.

2「揚湯止沸」:(yáng tāng zhǐ fèi)
反覆把滾水從鍋中舀出來,然後再倒回滾水裏,企圖用這種笨拙的方法,阻止鍋中的水繼續沸騰。
Repeatedly to ladle boiling water from the pot, then pour roll back the water in an attempt to use such a clumsy method, to prevent the pot of water to continue boiling.

成語的意思是:使用不妥當的方法,希望解決難題,實際上,不能從根本上化解危機。

The meaning of the idiom: the use of inappropriate methods to solve problems, in fact, cannot fundamentally resolve the crisis.
(一) 希臘政府接受了貸款,真的能夠帶領希臘人民,走上幸福的日子嗎?

(1)The Greek government accepted the loan and can really lead the Greek people, onto the happy days?

以下的消息來自:外參新聞網於2012-2-14 09:37的發佈:
The following message from: External Reference News release at 2012-2-14 09:37:

希臘政府經過修訂全新的緊縮方案,終於獲得議會支持。星期日當天,雅典出現了近年來最嚴重的騷亂。然而:備受緊縮之苦的希臘百姓,除了抗議,也只能進一步勒緊褲腰帶。

The Greek government revised the new austerity program, and finally gets parliamentary support.
Sunday, that day, Athens appeared in the worst unrest in recent years. Much the pain of the crunch, however: the Greek people, in addition to the protest, only to further tighten their belts.

希臘華人媒體《中希時報》總編輯汪鵬,發出訊息給(BBC)中文網記者說:從星期日下午3-4點鐘開始,一直到深夜,雅典市中心聚滿了憤怒的抗議者。

Greek Chinese-language media in the Hope Times Editor-in-chief Wang Pang sent a message to the (BBC) Chinese network, told reporters: from 3-4 o’clock Sunday afternoon until late at night, the center of Athens gathered full of angry protesters.

其中一小部分人:開始破壞公共設施和建築物。市中心的星巴克咖啡館等建築物被放火焚燒,有一些商鋪遭搶劫。不過,翌日早晨,雅典市中心已經完全恢復平靜。

A small portion of people: destroy public facilities and buildings. The center of a Starbucks coffee shop and other buildings were set on fire, some of the shops were looted. However, the following morning, the center of Athens has been completely restoring calm.
根據報導,騷亂中:雅典共有45座建築被焚燒,150間商店被搶砸。

According to the report, the riots: Athens, a total of 45 buildings were burned and 150 shops robbed smashing.

中希時報總編汪鵬在接受BBC中文網電話採訪時說:面對希臘政府,進一步削減開支,希臘人民感到無奈,只能進一步勒緊腰帶。

China – Greek Times editor-in-chief Wang Pang said in an interview with BBC News telephone interview: the Greek government, cut spending further, the Greek people feel helpless, only to further tighten their belts.
目前希臘國內,無論是私營機構或者是政府部門,都拼命進行裁員,失業率已經接近21%,政府削減開支,結果,癱瘓了許多公共服務。

Greek domestic private sector or government departments, and try desperately to layoffs, the unemployment rate has been close to 21 percent, government spending cuts as a result, paralyzed public services.
希臘公立醫院,以往,醫療費用報銷率很高,但是,如今能報銷的醫療費用,卻是一減再減。以往,希臘人民,只要參加繳納社會養老保險金,那麼,人民只要在政府公立醫院生孩子,政府會提供補助。目前,這一些補助,也是一減再減,甚至將來可能還會徹底取消。希臘中產階層的人民,本來積蓄已經不多,緊縮措施,更加令到他們的生活,陷入困境。

Greek public hospitals, in the past, medical expenses, reimbursement rates are high, but, now reimbursed medical expenses, but it is repeated reductions. In the past, the Greek people, as long as participation payment of social insurance fund the people in the public hospitals have children, the government will provide subsidies. Some subsidies, but also repeated reductions, and even that may be completely canceled. Greek middle class people, have been not much savings and austerity measures, more so of their lives, in trouble.
 
(二) 中產階級逐漸成為我們救助名單的主要族群:

(2)The middle class, and gradually become the main ethnic groups of our rescue list:

記者現場報導,這裡沒有地震,風災,暴雪;現場所見卻有許多,援助隊員以及慈善廚房,救援隊員忙於準備:供應各種食品與民生必需品,給予急切需要援助的雅典「新貧困族群」。

Reporters at the scene reported that there is no earthquake, hurricane, blizzard; site can see there are many aid players as well as the Soup Kitchen, the rescue team was busy preparing for: the supply of food and daily necessities, and give an urgent need for assistance to Athens’ new poverty populations.

這裡,許多希臘人民的財富與安樂,都已經給金融危機逐漸吞噬了,窮困好像瘟疫一般,竄爬到中產階級的人;那些無法撐過苦痛的,只能選擇走上窮途末路,過往曾經是玩樂天堂,現在已經失去光彩,希臘人的自殺率,如今攀升了一倍。

Here, many of the Greek people, wealth and well-being, have been gradually to the financial crisis engulfed the impoverished like the plague flee climbed to the middle class people; those who cannot get through the pain, can only choose to embark on a dead end, in the past used to be fun paradise lost their luster, the suicide rate among the Greeks, and now rising doubled.

(三)希臘今天的景況是怎樣造成的?希臘毀在權貴手裡 ?
(3)Greece today the situation is caused by? Greece destroyed in the rich and powerful hands?

寡頭政治(oligarchy)是一種政制形式,其中大部分甚至全部有效地掌握在一小撮特權階級手上(無論是財富、家族、軍事力量、殘暴或政治)。寡頭政治一詞,源自希臘,「oligo」就是「少數」,「arkhos」就是「統治」。

The oligarchy is a political system in the form, most of them, even all the power lies in the hands of a handful of the privileged class (regardless of wealth, family, military force, brutality or political). The word oligarchy, from Greece, an" olio “is the" minority “," arches “is the" rule “.

在新一屆希臘政府,努力向歐洲證明,希臘有決心削減膨脹的公共部門的同時,還必須做出決定,即是:要打擊危及希臘穩定的真正國內威脅,大範圍控制著希臘商業、金融、媒體,並實際上控制著政客的政治寡頭家族網絡。

In the new Greek government, and strive to prove to Europe that, Greece has determined to cut the bloated public sector must also make a decision, that is: To combat the real domestic threats that endanger Greece’s stability, a wide range of control of the Greek commercial, financial, the media, and in fact control the politicians, the oligarchs family network.

自帕潘德里歐擔任總理以來,他領導下的政府,一直努力打擊,習慣性的逃稅者。
Since Papandreou as prime minister, the government under his leadership has been their efforts to fight, habitual tax evaders.

帕潘德里歐在向議會發表的講話中,明確表示,他對一些希臘銀行的可疑行徑,存在擔憂。我們只能希望,由國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)、歐盟委員會(European Commission)以及歐洲央行(ECB)下令進行的貝萊德(Black Rock)調查,能夠為揭露金融體系的,當前問題提供適當的證據。

Papandreou, in his speech to Parliament, made it clear that he was suspicious acts of the Bank of Greece, there are concerns. We can only hope, Black Rock survey conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (European Commission) and European Central Bank (ECB) ordered to provide appropriate evidence to expose the financial system, current issues.

在上述講話中,帕潘德里歐還披露了一則爆炸性信息,希臘的銀行體系與一宗跨巴爾幹半島的燃油走私活動有關。據稱,估計該項走私活動,每年導致希臘有30億歐元的損失。他明確指出了這類犯罪活動,所造成的損害。只是沒有指明:哪些人或機構實際參與其中。

In the above statement, Papandreou also revealed explosive information, the Greek banking system and a fuel smuggling across the Balkans. Allegedly, it is estimated that the smuggling activities, lead to Greece every year there is a loss of 3 billion euros. He clearly pointed out the type of criminal activity, the damage caused. Just does not specify: What person or institution that is actually involved.
政治寡頭們,以兩種方式做出了回應。
首先,他們加快了慣常的現金輸出。去年,僅倫敦房地產市場,就出現了希臘資金暴增的情況。

First, they speed up the usual output of cash. Last year, only the real estate market in London, appeared in the Greek capital surge.
其次,他們動用旗下的媒體,抓住一切機會,指責和詆毀帕潘德里歐。他們知道,他是希臘政治精英中,最不會屈服的人。

Secondly, they are utilized by the media they control, to seize every opportunity, accusations and slander Papandreou. They know that he is in the Greek political elite, most will not yield.

政治寡頭們的目的十分明確:他們正在等待掠奪國有資產的機會,而在各種紓困計劃中,希臘政府,必須盡快對國有資產,進行私有化。

The purpose of the oligarchs is very clear: they are waiting for the opportunity to plunder state assets in a variety of relief programs, the Greek government, as soon as possible of state assets for privatization.

隨著希臘國內經濟大幅滑坡,過去兩年間,電力網絡和國家彩票機構,這些極具價值實體的國有資產,股價不斷走低。

Greek domestic economy plummeting over the past two years, the electricity network and the national lottery institutions, these valuable entity of the state-owned assets, stock prices continue to decline.
今年夏天,希臘電信運營商OTE將10%的股份以每股約7歐元的價格,出售給德國電信(Deutsche Telekom),價格比較3年前的股價降低75%。

This summer, the Greek telecommunications operators, 10% of the shares, the price of about € 7 per share, sold to Deutsche Telekom, the price comparison three years ago, the stock price reduced by 75%.

政治寡頭集團正在等候,用低至不到實際價值五分之一的價格,攫取這些資產,這些陰謀,對於國家而言,是糟糕的財務回報;但是,對於收購者而言,卻可以藉此,在5到10年的時間裡,大發橫財。

Political oligarchies are waiting to grab these assets down to less than the actual value of one fifth the price, the conspiracy, the country is the poor financial returns; However, for the acquirer, but it can take5-10 years, made a fortune.
這些政治寡頭集團,甚至希望,希臘退出歐元區,這樣他們就能運用,收藏在希臘以外地區的數十億歐元,利用德拉克馬的大幅貶值的機會,能夠使用極低亷的價格,購買超值的資產。

These political oligarchy, even hope, Greece out of the euro, so that they can use, collection of billions of euros outside Greece, the use of the drachma’s sharp depreciation of the opportunity to be able to use a very low price to buy the ultra-the value of the assets.
(德拉克馬於1832年已經是希臘的法定貨幣,直至2002年1月1日歐元正式流通所取代,1歐元等於340.750德拉克馬。)

(Drachmas as early as 1832, has been the lawful currency of Greece. Until January 1, 2002, replaced by the Euro, that is€ 1 is equal to 340.750 drachmas).
These political oligarchy, even hope, Greece out of the euro, so that they can use, collection of billions of euros outside Greece, the use of the drachma’s sharp depreciation of the opportunity to be able to use a very low price to buy the ultra-the value of the assets.

如果說:希臘和意大利的危機,給了我們什麽啟示的話,那就是歐盟(EU)放任了大面積的腐敗、犯罪和治理不當;不但東歐的求援國如此,一些西歐的核心成員國,亦都是相差不遠。

If we say: the crisis in Greece and Italy, gave us what the words of revelation, that is the European Union (EU) has allowed a large area of corruption, crime and poor governance; not only help the country so in Eastern Europe, some Western European core members also areas not far off.

當歐洲人向全世界宣講:歐洲的價值觀—透明、良好的治理和競爭的重要性。
卻常常忽視貝盧斯科尼(Berlusconi)對廣播媒體的壟斷、卡莫拉(Camorra)對坎帕尼亞省(Campania)政治的影響,以及希臘經濟,長期以來的用人唯親。

When the Europeans preach to the world: European values – transparency, good governance and the importance of competition.
However, Europeans are often ignored, the Berlusconi monopoly on broadcast media the Camorra political influence, the province of Campania, and the Greek economy, long-term nepotism.

西爾維奧•貝盧斯科尼。意大利第74,79,81任總理
除了在政界發展之外,還成立建築工程公司;收購傳媒;收購銀行;收購足球會。

Silvio Berlusconi. Italy 74, 79, 81 Prime Minister
In addition to political developments, Silvio Berlusconi has also set up a Construction Company; acquisition of the media; the acquisition of the bank; acquisition Football Club.

卡莫拉(Camorra)是義大利三大主要黑手黨勢力之一,活動範圍在那不勒斯地區。卡莫拉及時適應全球化潮流,最善於經營生意,是一個已徹底轉型的“自由主義黑手黨”。

Camorra is one of Italy’s three main Mafia, the scope of activities in the Naples area.
Camorra to adapt in a timely manner, the trend of globalization, the most adept at running a business, is a complete transformation of “liberal mafia".

如果說,我們能從歐洲面臨的災難中,得出什麽教訓的話,那就是:這些腐敗模式,必須被打破。否則,希臘和意大利,都將無法擺脫,使這些腐敗行為,得以猖獗發展。

If you draw what lessons we can learn from Europe is facing a disaster, then, that is: These corruption patterns must be broken. Otherwise, Greece and Italy, will not get rid of, so that these acts of corruption to be rampant development.

在我們以崇拜之心,向北歐尋找答案之前,請記住:這些德國公司,例如,西門子和富樂斯多,這些企業,向希臘的合作機構,支付數十億美元的賄賂金錢。他們支付這些賄賂,是為了獲取更大的豐厚利潤、他們使用價格虛增的合同,增加利潤,這些利益,其實是由希臘人民支付的,他們才是實實在在的納稅人。

When we worship the heart, to find the answer to the Nordic, please remember: these German companies, for example, Siemens and Forrestal, these companies pay billions of dollars in bribe money to the cooperation agencies in Greece. They pay bribe in order to obtain more lucrative profits, they use the contract prices inflated, increase profits, these benefits actually paid by the Greek people, they are the real taxpayers.
對希臘來說,關鍵的問題在於,在帕潘德里歐之後,希臘是否具備必要的政治人才和遠見,既推行徹底改革,又能夠復活腐敗的國家機構,並且阻止希臘最有錢有勢的人,繼續掠奪希臘的經濟成果。

For Greece, the crucial question is, after the Papandreou, Greece has the necessary political talent and vision, not only the implementation of a thorough reform, but also to the resurrection of the corruption of national institutions, and to prevent Greece, the most rich and powerful people continue to plunder the achievements of the Greek economy.
這或許也是:希臘的國際債權人們,是否願意去思考的問題。

Perhaps: Greece’s international creditors are willing to think of the problem.

我本人的猜想是:希臘目前,可能還不具備,上述全部改革條件,而人們只會把,帕潘德里歐的努力,視作拯救希臘最後的真正努力。

My own guess is: Greece, it may not yet have all of these reform conditions, people will only be regarded as Papandreou’s efforts to save the last real effort in Greece.

政治寡頭們,以兩種方式,預先做出了改革的回應。首先,他們加快了慣常的現金輸出。2011年,僅僅在倫敦房地產市場,就出現了,希臘資金暴增的狀況。

Oligarchs in two ways, pre-made reform response. First, they speed up the usual output of cash. 2011, just in the London real estate market, it appears, the situation exploded by the Greek capital.

其次,他們動用旗下的媒體爪牙,抓住一切機會,指責和詆毀帕潘德里歐。他們知道,他是希臘政治精英中,最不會接受屈服的人。

Secondly, the oligarchs, and resorts to its media minions to seize every opportunity, accusations and slander Papandreou. They know that he is the Greek political elite; most people will not be accepted yield.

政治寡頭們的目標,十分明確—他們正在等待,掠奪國有資產的機會。我覺得:希臘政府在各種紓困計劃中,必須盡早對國有資產,進行私有化計劃。

The goal of the oligarchs, very clear, they are waiting for the opportunity to plunder state assets. I think: the Greek government in a variety of relief programs must be state-owned assets, the privatization program as soon as possible.

我認為:希臘政府,雖然拿出了,符合「歐洲金融三頭馬車」貸款條件的緊縮措施,並且在國會過關了,但是,希臘的領袖,卻要應付國內激烈反對的現實,由廣泛的民眾罷工、示威,到內閣部長辭職,都是將難以平息的反對浪潮。

In my opinion: the Greek government took out, in line with the austerity measures of" The troika of the European financial “loan conditions, and in the Greek Parliament passed, but the leaders of Greece, have to cope with the reality of fierce opposition from a wide range of people in strikes, demonstrations, to the resignation of cabinet ministers, are implacable opposition from the wave.

我認為:歐洲「歐洲金融三頭馬車」共同訂下,希臘政府難於實行的緊縮措施,強加於希臘政府和人民,是一項重大錯誤的決定。這一項決定:其實只是為了,保護法國和德國銀行業的利益。而且:希臘國家和人民,付出了巨大犧牲之後,實際上,銀行業最後的利益,遲早都是「竹籃打水」。

In my opinion: the Greek government and “The troika of the European financial common set down, the Greek government is difficult to implement austerity measures, these measures, imposed on the Greek government and people, is a wrong decision. This is a decision: in fact, just to protect the interests of French and German banking. The Greek state and the people, great sacrifices, in fact, the banking industry last interest, sooner or later are Zhu lan da shui “.

中國成語「竹籃打水」意思是:利用竹子編成的籃子盛載水。表示:無論所作何事,結果都是沒有效果。
China idiom " zhú lán dǎ shuǐ " means: the use of bamboo woven basket containing water. Said: No matter what, made the result is no effect.

實際的情況是:希臘政府,能否切實執行,節儉的經濟政策,難免令人懷疑。希臘政府承諾的措施,真的能夠切實執行?

The actual situation is: Can the effective implementation of the Greek government, the thrift’s economic policies, it is inevitable doubt. The measures promised by the Greek government really can be effectively implemented?

尤其是2012年4月,希臘大選將近,在野政黨,絕對不會甘冒政治自殺的風險,與政府就緊縮政策合作。而大選後的新政府,又是否會恪守緊縮政策?一切都存在,諸多不確定的因素,何況,借貸方的苛刻,簡直是不可理喻。

April 2012, the Greek general election approaching, the opposition parties would never risked political suicide risk, tightening cooperation with the government. New government after the election, whether it will abide by the policy tightening? Everything that exists, many uncertainties, not to mention the lenders harsh, is simply incomprehensible.

實際上,希臘即使再獲得第三輪金錢援助,亦都拯救不了希臘,離開債務旋渦。

In fact, the Greek, even if once again the third round of monetary assistance, there is absolutely not save Greece to leave the debt vortex.

大量金錢援助,對於幫助希臘解脫債務束縛,只是「杯水車薪」而已,這不過是:新債冚舊債的續命藥,對於希臘一直在衰退的經濟,仍然無藥可醫。
中國成語「杯水車薪」意思是:用一杯的水,去撲救一輛被火燃燒着的木頭車子。比喻投放在解決難題的資源太小、太少的意思。

The Chinese idiom " bēi shuǐ chē xīn " means: to use a cup of water to put out a fire burning wood car. Analogy :To put in resources to solve the problem is too small, too little meaning.

希臘政府正在努力,避免國家的主權債務違約。希臘政府認為,一旦出現違約的情況,整個國家就將陷入巨大的經濟混亂。儘管,希臘兩大主要政黨,臨時結成緊急同盟,接受貸款。但是,國家也同時,接受了,當不能履行合約時,會被懲罰的措施。站在人民的角度來說,卻是非常令人感到痛楚的。只不過是:兩害相比較,選取害處較輕的選擇而已。

The Greek government is trying to avoid the country’s sovereign debt default. The Greek Government considers that, in the event of default, the entire country will fall into a huge economic disruption. , Greece, the two major political parties, temporary form emergency alliance, to accept the loan. However, the state also accepted, when unable to perform the contract will be punitive measures. Standing people’s point of view, it is very feel pain. Simply this: the lesser of two evils compared to select the harmful effects of a lighter choice.

由於希臘被鎖定在歐元區內—相對而言,希臘在現階段,沒有話語權。

Greece is locked in the euro zone – relatively speaking, Greece at this stage, there is no right to speak.

希臘只能接受:柏林和布魯塞爾,不分「青紅皂白」的節儉政策。

Greece can only accept: Berlin and Brussels,(indiscriminate white and black)thrifty policy.

「青紅皂白」:「qīng hóng zào bái」

中國成語「青紅皂白」的意思是:把青色、紅色、黑色、白色,四種不同的顏料,混合在一起。
比喻:不能夠分辨事情的由來或正在處理中的事情,究竟是正確還是是錯誤?
The Chinese idiom " qīng hóng zào bái " means: the blue, red, black, white, four different pigments, are mixed together.
The origin of the metaphor: not able to distinguish between things or things that are being processed, whether it is right or wrong?

希臘的經濟情況,非常惡劣,希臘被逼將最低工資標準,降低了20%。受到這一政策打壓的,將不僅僅是社會裏,最貧窮的人。因為國內所有的其他職位,都會用這個標準來做參考,因此,歐盟的不合理政策,註定將要拖慢,希臘未來經濟增長的幅度。

Greece’s economic situation is very bad, the Greek government, forced the minimum wage, reduce 20%. By a policy of suppression, not just the poorest people in society. Because all the other posts, do refer to this standard, therefore, unreasonable policies of the EU will no doubt slow down Greece’s economic growth rate.
其實:歐盟提出,這樣的一個,所謂幫助希臘,解脫債務的方案,從細節的項目看來,我總是覺得:歐洲已經做好了,拋棄希臘的準備。目前這一個拼湊而成的救援計畫,其實主要是為了贏得時間,將希臘隔離開來,然後,進行更加有秩序的違約安排,這樣就可以保護法國和德國銀行的利益;至於希臘人的命運,歐洲金融三頭馬車,已經不在考慮之列。

Truth perspective: the EU, such a so-called help Greece, relief program of debt. Author from the details of the view, I always think: Europe is ready to abandon the Greek preparation. This is a patchwork of rescue plan, in fact, in order to win some time, the Greek isolate, and then, more orderly breach of contract arrangements, so that the troika of the European financial, will be able to achieve the protection of France and Germany the interests of the bank; As for the fate of the Greeks, the three European financial carriage, has not in the agenda to consider within.

歐洲金融三頭馬車的安排,應該能夠提醒:義大利人、西班牙人、葡萄牙人、愛爾蘭人,甚至是法國人,不能夠不心存疑慮。這些國家的人民,實在有理由懷疑:與希臘人相似的命運,正在前方等待著自己。

European financial arrangements of the three-horse cart, should be able to remind: Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Irish, and even the Frenchman will have misgivings. People in these countries, there is strong reason to doubt: a similar fate with the Greeks, is waiting in front of their own.

但是,德國人,也不可能高枕無憂,他們遲早會意識到,當自己的重要出口市場,都在推行殘酷的節儉政策的時候,德國的經濟,也會受到摧殘。只是,時辰還未來到而已。

However, the German cannot sit back and relax; they will realize that sooner or later, when an important export market, in the implementation of the brutal thrift policy, the German economy, will also be devastated. But, the hour has not yet come.

(四)展望未來:
無論歐元區:將會維持統一性,繼續存在;還是經過,在不同程度的整合、分裂後,繼續存在。

(4)Looking to the future:
Whether the euro area: will be to maintain consistency, continue to exist; or after, in varying degrees of integration, after the split, continue to exist.

歐洲的國家,最好學習美國政府的榜樣,由國家的精英,研究出適合國情的辦法,用來刺激國家的經濟;每當國家遇到經濟困難時,能夠順利地採取應變的策略。

European countries, it is best to learn a model for the U.S. government by the elite of the country, to work out suitable conditions, be used to stimulate the country’s economy; Every time when the country encountered economic difficulties, to successfully adopt contingency strategies.

目前金融市場,全部聚焦在,歐盟對希臘的新一輪1300億貸款。可惜,這些貸款的先決條件是:強制逼使希臘政府,採用嚴苛的經濟改革,以及,須要大幅度,逼使債權人,自願性減債。希臘政府,要全部完成,歐洲金融三頭馬車的嚴厲規定,希臘政府才能夠獲得貸款。

Financial markets all focused on a new round of EU Greece 130 billion loan. Unfortunately, a prerequisite for these loans is: to force the Greek government to force the use of harsh economic reforms and the need to substantially compel creditors, voluntary debt reduction. Greek government to complete the harsh provisions of The troika of the European financial, the Greek government to be able to obtain loans.

其實,只要投資者,經過詳細分析貸款的內容,我們便會知道,貸款細節的規定,希臘政府根本無法實施,因為:任何一個國家的改革和財政緊縮,都會嚴重壓抑國內的內部需求,希臘目前使用,幣值高昂的歐羅,作為流通貨幣,怎麼能夠振興旅遊業?疲憊的經濟環境,會進一步令國家的稅收大幅度減少,政府財政,入不敷支,形成了惡性循環。

In fact, as long as the investor, after the contents of the detailed analysis of the loan, we will know the provisions of the loan details, the Greek government simply cannot be implemented, because: the country’s reform and fiscal austerity will severely depressed domestic internal demand. Greece because of the use of high currency Euro as currency in circulation how can revitalize the tourism industry? Tired of the economic environment, will further make a substantial reduction in state tax, government finance, to make end meet, forming a vicious cycle.

(五)筆者建議希臘政府,倘若真的有機會,收到大筆救助性貸款後,應該以各種不滿歐盟政治性安排為藉口,盡快自行退出歐元區。然後,利用國家貨幣貶值的行政措施,用來償還部份債務,最後:採取措施,刺激旅遊業,增加工業出口。

(5)I take the liberty to the Greek government proposed if the government really has the opportunity to receive a large amount of rescue loans, the Greek government should be based on a variety of dissatisfaction with the EU’s political arrangements as an excuse. Greece should be decided to withdraw from the euro as soon as possible. Finally: to take measures to boost tourism, increase in industrial exports.

希臘國內,有許多旅遊名勝古蹟,這些都是希臘的固有資產。希臘政府大可以與國際財團合作經營。希臘政府,只須要以出售長期經營權的方式,與國際財團合作,發展旅遊業,增加人民的就業機會,減少人民的戾氣。起碼能讓人民覺得,國家有了希望。官員們亦總好過,每天為了應付債務而身心疲憊。

Greek domestic, there are many tourist attractions; these are Greece’s inherent assets. The Greek government can operate in cooperation with the international consortium. Greek government, only to sell the right to operate with the international consortium, the development of tourism, increase the employment opportunities of the people reduce the hostility of the people. At least make people think, countries have hope. The officials also do not have to deal with the debt, mental and physical exhaustion.

德國、法國堅持希臘,繼續留在歐元區,德國和法國,其實是具有深層次的考慮。試想一想,現時的減債方案,隨時超過總欠債的70%,之後,又有可能,須要新一輪的貸款。對借款人來說,簡直有「掉錢落海」的風險。那麼,為何又須要繼續貸款?

(六)歐洲金融三頭馬車背後的動機:
(6)The troika of the European financial the motives behind:

一、 歐羅區沒有會員的退出機制,希臘的退出,必定會引發,世界各國,對歐羅區的銀行,進行大量訴訟,法律訴訟所花費的金錢,非常龐大。

1 The euro area does not have a mechanism for members to exit, the exit of Greece, must lead to the world, on the banks of the euro area, a lot of litigation, the money spent by the legal proceedings, very large.

二、 當希臘退出歐元區後,金融市場,絕對有可能會引發,一系列對葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利,主權債券的投機性沽盤,令歐洲金融三頭馬車,重新塑造金融穩定,涉及的花費,會更加龐大,日後,拯救的過程會更加艱難。

2 Greece out of the euro, financial markets, absolutely may lead to a series of Portugal, Spain and Italy, the sovereign bonds of speculative sell order, so that the troika of the European financial re-shaping the financial stability, the cost involved will be much larger in the future to save the process will be more difficult.

三、 歐洲金融三頭馬車盤算:如果歐羅區,能夠闖過這一難關,肯定會增加歐元區,全歐洲一體化的民意。結果:會吸引更多東歐國家加入歐元區,會員國家的協同效應會放大,令歐羅區統一財政的方案,成為更加理所當然,結果,會進一步鞏固德國和法國在歐元區的領導地位。

3 The troika of the European financial calculations: if the euro zone, able to break through this difficulty, would certainly increase the euro area, the opinion of the European integration. Results: will attract more Eastern European countries join the euro, the synergistic effect of the member countries will be enlarged, so that the unified financial programs of the euro zone, become more a matter of course, the results will further strengthen the leading position of Germany and France in the euro area.

(七)歐洲金融三頭馬車,援助希臘的計劃,存在的隱憂:

(7)The troika of the European financial plan for assistance to Greece, there are concerns:
20國集團(Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors),又稱G20,是一個國際經濟合作論壇,於1999年12月16日在德國柏林成立,屬於布雷頓森林體系框架內非正式對話的一種機制,由八國集團(美國、日本、德國、法國、英國、意大利、加拿大和俄羅斯)以及其餘十二個重要經濟體(歐盟、中國、巴西、印度、澳洲、墨西哥、南韓、土耳其、印尼、沙特阿拉伯、阿根廷和南非)組成。按照慣例,國際貨幣基金組織與世界銀行列席該組織的會議。
G20, also known as the G20, is an international forum for economic cooperation, set up in Berlin, Germany on December 16, 1999, is a mechanism for informal dialogue with the Bretton Woods system, within the framework of the G8 (United States, Japan, Germany France, Britain, Italy, Canada and Russia) as well as of the remaining 12 major economies (the European Union, China, Brazil, India, Australia, Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Argentina and South Africa).
In accordance with the practice, the IMF and World Bank will send representatives to attend the meeting of the organization.

G20國集團,還沒有為增加注資,世界銀行的計劃,達成共識。況且,國際貨幣基金組織,現時仍然尚未確實知道,會為希臘新一輪貸款,負擔的總金額。

擁有希臘國家債券的對沖基金及民間債權人,並未達成共識,願意對希臘債券票面價值,撇除 53.5%的協議。

希臘貸款合約中,清楚列出,希臘政府,必須執行經濟緊縮政策。但是,緊縮政策內容提到的,可持續性執行的分析報告中,令到德國、荷蘭及芬蘭等議會,對拯救希臘脫離債務,所須要負擔的風險,表示抗拒。因為,上述國家的領袖,須要承擔國內政治的壓力。
Greek loan agreements that clearly set out, the Greek government, you must perform austerity. However, the austerity policy content mentioned in the sustainability analysis of the implementation, so that the parliament of Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, to save Greece from the debt, and have to bear the risk, said resist. Because the leaders of the countries mentioned above, have to bear the pressure of domestic politics.

 希臘政府會在2012年 4月會舉行大選,大選過後,新政府會否恪守承諾,繼續實施經濟緊縮政策和結構性改革嗎?在這一個謎團裏,存在許多變數。
 Greek government in April 2012, will hold a general election after the election, the new government will honor its commitments and continue to implement economic austerity and structural reform? In a mystery, there are many variables.
 希臘國內,疲弱的經濟,能夠支持經濟緊縮政策和經濟改革嗎?
 Greek domestic, the weak economy, able to support economic austerity and economic reform?
 由於希臘政府,就算能夠獲得的貸款,大部份金錢,都只是用於還債,而用於政府日常開支的金錢,估計會少於20%。所以希臘政府,仍然有機會在2012年3月20日,出現債務違約。
The Greek government, even if able to obtain loans, most of the money, and are only used for debt for the day-to-day government spending money, estimated to be less than 20%. Greek government still has a chance to March 20, 2012 debt default.
 希臘人民,在緊縮政策下生活,會有激烈的不滿現實嗎?請大家不要忽略這個因素。
 Greek people living in austerity policy, there will be intense discontented? Please do not ignore this factor.
 歐元區的會員國家,在國民反援助情緒籠罩下,歐洲各國的國會,未來,還會繼續批准,新一輪的經濟援助嗎?
 Member countries of the euro area, in the shadow of the national anti-aid sentiment, Congress of the European countries, the future, will continue to the approval of a new round of economic aid?

(八)假如希臘繼續被鎖定在歐元區內,最終極的結果,都是須要破產收場。
If Greece continues to be locked within the euro zone, the ultimate results of all required bankruptcy end.
評級機構惠譽,在(The troika of the European financial)公佈換債詳情後,將該國信貸評級,進一步下降,由 CCC降至 C,惠譽指出:希臘有可能在短期內違約。(C級是全部評級等級中,八級中的第七級,第八級便是違約級別)

The rating agency Fitch announced the details of the convertible debt, Greece’s credit rating fell further, down by the CCC to C, and Fitch pointed out that: Greece may be a breach in the short term. (C-class all the rating scale, eight in the seventh grade, eighth grade is the default level)

有經濟分析師表示,希臘雖然與歐洲各國達成協議,但是,希臘最終都會走上破產之路。有評論引述 IMF的機密評估文件,文件內容指出: 2020年希臘債務,仍然會佔有,經濟輸出總額達160%,遠超議定目標的 120.5%。

Some economic analysts said Greece to reach an agreement with European countries, but Greece will eventually embark on the road of bankruptcy. Comments quoted by the IMF confidential assessment document, the contents of the documents: Greek debt in 2020, still will occupy. Economic output amounted to 160 percent, far more than 120.5% of the agreed targets.

希臘政府必須與私人債權人進行換債,成為該國獲救的重要一環。根據協議,假若對沖基金或銀行等私人債權人,自願進行換債,需承受 53.5%的撇債,這些撇債舉措,有助於希臘政府,減少所負擔的債務。倘若私人債權人或對沖基金公司,不願意置換新債,評級機構或有可能,宣佈希臘違約,觸發信貸違約掉期( CDS)賠償。

The Greek government must exchange debt with private creditors, become an important part of the country were rescued. Under the agreement, if the hedge funds or banks and other private creditors, voluntary exchange debt, private creditors have to bear 53.5% of written off debt, write debt initiatives to help the Greek government, to reduce the debt burden. If private creditors or hedge fund company, unwilling to replacement of new debt, the rating agencies, or likely to announce a Greek default, triggering credit default swaps (CDS) compensation.

(九)歐洲金融三頭馬車規定:希臘政府要說服95%私人債權人或對沖基金公司,自願接受削減債及置換新債,才能獲發貸款。這樣的批核條款,其實是一項不可能完成的任務。

The troika of the European financial provisions: the Greek government to convince 95% of private creditors or hedge fund company, to accept voluntary debt reduction and replacement of new debt to be issued loans. Terms of approval, in fact, is an impossible task.
親愛的讀者們,試問:假如您是債權人,您已經為持有的希臘國債,購買了信貸違約掉期(CDS)保險,只要希臘政府,不能夠在限期到達時,歸還借款,您便可以向保險公司,要求全數金額的賠償,您會輕易答應自動削減債款及進行舊債置換新債嗎?
除非…(這裡的空白,留給讀者們無限的想像)……。

Dear readers, let me ask you: If you are a creditor, you have already purchased credit default swaps (CDS), insurance of Greek government bonds held by.
Greek government cannot be in the reach of the deadline, the return of the borrower, you will be able to require the full amount of compensation to the insurance company, and will you easily agree to automatically cut debt and new debt for old debt replacement?

Unless …… (left blank, leaving to the imagination of readers) ……。

(十)過去一星期,金融市場,雖然聚焦在歐洲,但是:我希親愛的讀者,要注意日元的走勢。我認為:日本的債務已經佔GDP逾200%,比較希臘債務佔經濟輸出達 160%還要高,在短期內,美元兌日元會直逼100。
(10)The past week, financial markets, although the focus in Europe, but: I hope, dear reader, to pay attention to the trend of the Japanese Yuan. In my opinion: Japan’s debt has more than 200% of GDP to compare the Greek debt, accounting for the economic output of 160% is even higher. In the short term, the U.S. dollar against the Yen would be almost equal to 100.

這篇博客完成於24-02-2012香港時間上午20:15 p.m.
現時,美元兌日本元的匯價是:80.50

This blog is completed on 24-02-2012 Hong Kong time, 20:15 p.m.m
At present, the U.S. dollar against the Japanese exchange rate is: 80.50

根據黃金分割比率顯示:80.55是黃金分割比率的0.5%,倘若匯價趨向,超越80.55。並且:維持上述價位一段日子,便可以理解為:日本元,開始有下跌趨勢。

According to the analysis of the golden ratio: 80.55 have been reached, the golden ratio to 0.5% position.
Assumptions: the U.S. dollar against the Japanese Yuan exchange rate, beyond the 80.55 price. And maintain the above price for some days, they can be understood as: Japanese Yuan started a downward trend.

日本元要回復上升趨勢,須要符合下列條件:
1歐洲債務危機,進一步惡化。
2避險情緒高漲。
3黃金價格下跌。

Japan Yuan to reply to an upward trend, the need to comply with the following conditions:
1 European debt crisis, continue to deteriorate further.
2 Financial markets, rising risk aversion.
3 Gold prices fell.

(十一)自然界會有生存和死亡定律。這種定律,也存在「金融界」內。人類生理倒閉是死亡;財務倒閉是破產。買債券最怕是發行債券的機構「執笠」;買股票最怕上市公司「執笠」;買貨幣最怕政府「破產」。日本的債務,佔經濟輸出總額,達到 200%以上,債務信用違約,是遲早都會出現的事實,日元怎麼能夠避免,大幅度貶值?

(11)The natural world, there will be life and death’s law. This life and death laws, are also present in the “financial sector". The collapse of human physiology is death; personal financial collapse of the bankrupt. To buy bonds is most afraid of the bond issuer “winding up"; to buy stocks, the worst fear is that the listed company “winding up"; to buy the currency are most afraid of the government “bankruptcy." Japan’s debt, accounting for the total economic output, more than 200% debt credit default, sooner or later appear, Yen how to avoid, not devaluation?
Yen how to avoid the devaluation?

(十二)但是,親愛的讀者要留意:由於金融市場的風險情緒(Risk-on)與(Risk-off)避險情緒,頻繁地交替出現,假設:您對前景持悲觀的看法時,便要留意進入市場時,價位的選擇。

(12)But, my dear readers to note: due to financial market risk sentiment and risk aversion, frequently alternating.
Hypothesis: when you hold a pessimistic view of prospects for the future, we must pay attention to enter the market, select the appropriate price.

我認為短期內:歐元兌美元,會上升到1.35;英鎊兌美元,會上升到1.60;澳元兌美元,會上升到1.10;紐元兌美元,會上升到0.86;加拿大元兌美元,會上升到0.98;美元兌瑞士法郎,會上升到0.89;石油會見到120美元;黃金會見到1830美元。

I consider the short term (three months) the euro against the U.S. dollar, to rise to 1.34; the pound against the dollar, to rise to 1.60; the Australian dollar to rise to 1.10; New Zealand dollar, to rise to 0.86; the Canadian dollar against rise to 0.98; the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc to rise to 0.90; oil prices will see $ 120; the price of gold will see $ 1,800.

當到達這些價位時,才考慮進入市場。切勿「輕舉妄動」,避免「坐艇」 兼「虧損」。

When you reach the price of these goals is the time to consider entering the market. “Do not act rashly, to avoid the" boat ride “and" loss “.

部份參考資料:
鉅亨網陳怡君
MarketWatch專欄作家德拉梅德(Darrell Delamaide)
外參新聞網
作家 米沙•格倫尼 為英國《金融時報》撰稿

References:
Kui Heng network Yi-Chun Chen
MarketWatch columnist Della Dmitry (Darrell Delamaide)
External Reference News
Mischa – Ge Lunni
筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

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