(Chapter 20)Do you think the 「LTR O」 launched by the European Central Bank, to solve the debt crisis of the Euro area?


(Chapter 20)Do you think the 「LTR O」 launched by the European Central Bank, to solve the debt crisis of the Euro area?.

(Chapter 20)Do you think the 「LTR O」 launched by the European Central Bank, to solve the debt crisis of the Euro area?

(20章)您覺得歐洲中央銀行推出的LTRO,能解決歐元區的債務危機嗎?

您知道「LTRO」是甚麼意義嗎?如果我告訴您說,這是一種不公平的行政舉措,您會同意嗎?

The LTRO “What is the significance?” If I tell you, this is an unfair administrative initiative, will you agree?

長期再融資的操作,簡單來說就是:

Long-term refinancing operation is simply:

首先,歐洲中央銀行,降低銀行抵押品的質素,為銀行提供,抵押品擔保。

First of all, the European Central Bank, reducing the quality of the collateral for the bank to provide loans.

然後,歐洲中央銀行,再以1% 的極低亷利率,向銀行注入資金;銀行領得貸款後,把借款用來購買歐洲國家債券,套取利息差價,銀行再將購買回來的歐洲債券,再向歐洲中央銀行,作為再度融資之抵押品,如是者循環運行。

Then, the European Central Bank, and then to 1% of very low interest rates, into the bank funds; bank after receiving the loan, the loan used to purchase the bonds of European countries, taking interest on the difference. European government bonds, the bank will buy back again to the European Central Bank to take out a mortgage, as a second loan, in the case of cycle run.

這種循環貸款的運作,等同於歐洲中央銀行,使用迂迴方式「送錢」給銀行。

The operation of this revolving loan, equivalent to the European Central Bank, to use the roundabout way to give money to the bank.

這些措施,對其他人來說,根本不公平 。

These measure others simply unfair.

因為,這種財政安排等於是:歐洲中央銀行,開動機器印刷鈔票,把鈔票
給予銀行,銀行買了債券後,大部分的金錢還是流回中央銀行。

So, this financial arrangements: the European Central Bank, start the machine to print money, the money given to banks, the bank bought bonds, most of the money, or flow back into the central bank.

LTRO的全文是:Long Term Refinance Operation,即長期再融資操作。
它為什麼這麼重要?

The LTRO the full text is Long Term Refinance Operation, namely long-term refinancing operations.
Why is it so important?

請看一看以下的現實情況:

Please take a look at the following reality:

西班牙財政部於2011/12/20: 賣出了37億歐元3個月期國債,收益率為1.735%,而11月份同期國債的平均收益率為5.11%。
此次西班牙國家債券,發行超額認購倍數為:2.9倍。

2011/12/20: Spain Ministry of Finance sold 3.7 billion euros of three-month Treasury yield 1.735 percent, while in November the same period the average yield of treasury bonds was 5.11%.
The Spanish government bonds, the issue of over-subscription ratio: 2.9 times.

西班牙6個月期國債收益率從5.227%下降至2.435%,此次發行19.2億歐元,超額認購倍數為4.1倍。

Spain’s six-month Treasury yields fell from 5.227% to 2.435%, the issue of 1.92 billion euros, the oversubscription of 4.1 times.

讓我們來看一看:投資者的收益率大幅下降了。

Let’s look at: substantial decline in the rate of returns to investors.

不用我提醒,你也可以看得出,投資者的收益率,下降的幅度,實在太大了,對於這一點,我並不在意,但背後的原因,令人著迷。

I need not remind, you can see, the rate of return of investors, the decrease is too great, and this, I do not care, but the reasons behind fascinating.

用簡單的話來說,歐洲中央銀行,向銀行的注資行政安排,可能會成為一個新的「套利交易」方法,這一點,連我都不明白,究竟是甚麼一回事了?

In simple words, the European Central Bank, the Bank’s injection of administrative arrangements, may become a new “carry trade", this, even I do not understand what is the matter?

從本質上:銀行從歐洲中央銀行,用極低的利率(1%)貸款,然後,銀行利用這筆金錢,購買主權國家債券,賺取中間的利息差距。

In essence: the banks from the European Central Bank, with a very low interest rates (1%) loan, then, banks use the money, buy the bonds of sovereign states, to earn the interest gap in the middle.

舉例來說:
你今天購買了3個月的西班牙國債,你就可以賺0.735%的收益。
如果購買6個月國債,你會賺1.435%的收益。
這種「套利交易」已經使短期國債收益率,發生了巨大變化。

For example:
You purchase three months of the Spanish government bonds, you can earn 0.735% of the proceeds.
If you buy a 6 month bonds, you will earn 1.435% of the proceeds.
This “carry trade" has made short-term bond yields, has undergone tremendous changes.

親愛的讀者們,相信您也會看得出,這種安排,其中的卓越之處嗎?

Dear readers, I believe you will see that such an arrangement, the excellence?

雖然,歐洲中央銀行的長期再融資操作,並沒有從根本上,解決歐洲金融危機的問題,但它能把債務危機,緩解並推後爆破的時日。

Although, the European Central Bank’s long-term re-financing operations, and not fundamentally solve the problems of the financial crisis in Europe, such an arrangement, however, to the debt crisis, alleviate the time and later blasting.

長期再融資操作,讓歐洲中央銀行,成為整個交易的中間人,因為歐洲中央銀行,不能直接購買,歐洲各國的國債。

Long-term refinancing operations, the European Central Bank to become the middleman of the whole process, because the European Central Bank, not a country, cannot be directly purchased the national debt of European countries.

歐洲中央銀行,只能擔任印刷鈔票的角色,當全球500多間銀行,拿到現鈔後,便可以去購買歐洲各個國家的債券。然後,再把這些債券,返還給歐洲中央銀行,作為接續貸款的抵押品。

European Central Bank, only as the role of printing money, when more than 500 banks worldwide, to get cash, they can go to buy the bonds of the various countries of Europe. Then these bonds, returned to the European Central Bank, as a continuation of the collateral of the loan.

如此一來,這些國家債券,最終:還是回到歐洲中央銀行的保險庫裏。
As a result, the bonds of these countries, and ultimately: or return to the European Central Bank vaults.

這種所謂「解救金融危機」的操作,完全與蓋特納和伯南克,應付金融危機,所採取的辦法,十分類似。

The so-called “rescue the financial crisis," the operation, complete with Geithner and Bernanke, to cope with financial crisis taken by the way, very similar.

因此,金融市場裏,有很多投資者或一些歐洲的國家,都反對使用這種所謂「拯救金融危機」的操作。

Therefore, the financial markets, many investors or some European countries are against the use of this so-called “save the financial crisis" operation.

反對使用上述措施,進行「拯救金融危機」的意見,歸納如下:
Against the use of these measures, “to save the financial crisis," as summarized below:

1. 在現階段,已經負擔巨大風險的銀行:為什麼?還要購買更多的歐洲國家債券?

At this stage, the burden on the banks of the huge risk: why buy more European countries’ bonds?

2.假設:歐洲中央銀行,放置在保險庫的國債,再一次,被評級機構繼續降低評級時。
那麼,歐洲中央銀行保險庫裏,已經裝得滿瀉的國家債券,歐洲中央銀行,會怎麼應付?
因為,在金融危機隨時爆發的情況下,購買負債纍纍的國家債券,畢竟:是充滿風險的買賣。

2. Assumptions: the European Central Bank placed in the vault of the national debt, once again, the rating agencies continue to downgrade.
So, the European Central Bank vault, has already been installed overflows government bonds, the European Central Bank will be how to deal with?
Because of the financial crisis erupt at any case, the purchase of the heavily indebted countries debt, after all: it is full of risks of trading.

第一個問題「為甚麼?」很難予以反駁。

The first question, “Why?" It’s hard to refute.

第二個問題的「假設」就很容易給予解釋。

The second question: “What if" it is easy to explain?

既然,歐洲中央銀行,已經放寬了抵押品的質素條件,那些被「降級」的國家債券,依然可以成為貸款的抵押品;就像美國聯儲局,在第一輪量化寬鬆政策推行時的做法一模一樣,任何證券、債券都可以成為貸款的抵押品。

Since the European Central Bank, has been relaxed conditions of the quality of the collateral bonds, “downgrade" can still become the collateral for the loan; like the U.S. Federal Reserve, the implementation of the first round of quantitative easing policy, practice, exactly the same any securities, bonds can become collateral for the loan.

無論怎樣,歐洲中央銀行,發放貸款的金額越高,投資者的風險偏好,就會越強。

In any case, the European Central Bank, the higher the amount of loans, the risk appetite of investors, the more strong.

長期再融資操作計劃,能夠解決債務危機繼續蔓延下去嗎?
絕對不可能。

Long-term refinancing operations plan to solve the debt crisis continues to spread down?

These initiatives, is absolutely impossible to solve the debt crisis in Europe.

但是,長期再融資操作計劃的優點是:可以推遲危機爆發的時日;可以重新建立金融市場的信心。
各位親愛的讀者:LTRO這個新名詞,實在太重要了,我們應該深入研究其中的內涵吧。

However, the advantages of long-term refinancing operations plan: It can postpone the time of crisis; can re-establish confidence in financial markets.
Dear readers: LTRO this new term, is too important, we should be in-depth study its connotation.

下面的敘述,是來自彭博通訊社的一則消息:

The following narrative is a message from Bloomberg:

人類如果真的是有「未來的一生」的話,我願意成為一家「銀行」,因為每一個政府與國家的中央銀行,都希望「我」能夠一生興旺,甚至,在睡覺的時候,也能賺取金錢。

If man really has a “future life", I would like to become a “bank", because every government and the country’s central bank, and hope that the “I" can life thrive, even in sleep, but also earn the money.

歐洲中央銀行2011年,推出金額達4,891.9億歐元的三年期LTRO,以1厘利率,借款予歐洲銀行,以幫助銀行緩解資金周轉的困難,避免銀行面臨,債務到期時,未能及時從傳統市場籌集得足夠資金,應付債務難關。

European Central Bank in 2011, the introduction of three-year period amounted to 4,891.9 billion euros LTRO, the European Central Bank interest rate to 1% of loans to European banks, to help banks to ease the liquidity difficulties, to avoid facing banks, debt maturity, fail to raise enough funds to cope with debt difficulties from the traditional markets.

另外,英國《金融時報》引述消息稱:因為歐洲銀行對流動性資金的需求不斷增加,歐洲中央銀行的長期再融資操作(LTRO)資金額度,有機會增加到1萬億歐元,歐洲中央銀行,再度增加的現金會再度為歐元增添壓力。

In addition, the British “Financial Times" quoted a source said: because European banks are increasing demand for liquidity, the European Central Bank’s long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) the amount of funds, increased to € 1 trillion, the European Central Bank further increase in cash, will add pressure to the euro again.

2011年,歐洲中央銀行,提供了長達3年,無上限貸款的方式,專門向歐洲銀行體系,貸出數千億歐元資金。當時,獲得了總計523家銀行的回應,最終,貸出了4890億歐元資金,超出了市場的預期。

In 2011, the European Central Bank to provide up to three years, the upper limit of loans, lending hundreds of billions of euros of funds dedicated to the European banking system. At that time, a total of 523 banks responded, ultimately, lent 489 billion euros, exceeding the expectations of the market.

歐洲中央銀行實施的長期再融資操作,有兩層用意:

第一是:通過實施的長期再融資操作,消除市場恐慌情緒,減輕困擾整個歐洲銀行業的融資痛苦,避免出現災難性的“信貸危機”。
The European Central Bank, the implementation of long-term refinancing operations, there are two layers of intention:
The first is: the implementation of long-term refinancing operations the elimination of market panic, reduce the pain of troubled European banking sector as a whole financing, to avoid the disastrous “credit crunch".

根據估算,歐洲銀行業,將有大約6500億歐元短期債務,將會於2012年末到期,來自歐洲中央銀行的這筆貸款,正好可以緩解燃眉之急。

According to estimates, the European banking sector, there will be approximately € 650 billion of short-term debt will be due at the end of 2012, the loan from the European Central Bank, just to alleviate the urgent needs.

第二是:歐洲中央銀行,希望獲得貸款的各家銀行,能夠把資金配置到“欠債纍纍的國家”的高利率國債之上,抑制歐債危機,進一步惡化。

The second is: the European Central Bank, banks to obtain loans, to the allocation of funds to the debt-ridden countries, inhibition of the European debt crisis, and further deterioration.

但是,歐洲中央銀行,卻忽視了最重要的關鍵:中央銀行的這些操作,必須能刺激出嶄新的借貸、消費和投資,才能為解救歐債危機和GDP增長做出貢獻,而事實上,得到這筆貸款的銀行,卻沒有釋出貸款給企業的動力。

However, the European Central Bank, ignoring the most important key: these operations, the central bank must be able to stimulate new lending, consumption and investment in order to contribute to rescue Europe’s debt crisis and GDP growth, in fact, access to these loans to banks, but did not release loans to corporate power.

由於,歐洲銀行業,目前正在面臨降低資產負債表的規模和風險的壓力,同時亟待鞏固資本基礎,因此,進一步增持歐元區成員國國債的興趣有限。
As the European banking industry is facing to reduce the size of the balance sheet and the risk of pressure at the same time urgent need to strengthen capital base, further holdings of euro area member states’ interest in government bonds is limited.

歐洲銀行業,寧願把手中寬裕的流動資金,存放在歐洲中央銀行的隔夜存款戶口當中,或是用於債務再融資。

The European banking industry, preferring the hands of ample liquidity, stored in the European Central Bank’s overnight deposit accounts, or for debt refinancing.

歐洲銀行業,更願意將資金,存放在歐洲中央銀行,而不是拆借給其他銀行,原因就是:擔心交易對手,在歐元區主權債務危機中成為犧牲品。

The European banking sector, are more willing to funds deposited in the European Central Bank, rather than lending to other banks, the reason is: fear of counterparty, to be sacrificed in the euro zone sovereign debt crisis.

不少投資者認為,將歐洲中央銀行啟動3年期,沒有上限的貸款機制,視為一種“變相”的量化寬鬆舉措,因為歐洲中央銀行,並不限制銀行拿這些錢去買入歐元區國家發行的國債。

Many investors believe that the European Central Bank three-year, no ceiling on lending mechanism, regarded as a “disguised" quantitative easing (QE) initiative, because the central bank, and there is no limit to the bank, take these loans to buy bonds issued by euro area countries.

然而,正是由於銀行業,不願意購買陷入債務危機的國家所發行的國家債券,因此,歐洲中央銀行目前推行,變相的量化寬鬆舉措的效果,可能遠遠不及,直接推出量化寬鬆政策,更加有功效。

However, the combination of banking, not willing to buy the country into a debt crisis, the issue of state bonds, therefore, the European Central Bank is currently implementing a disguised form of quantitative easing effect, may be far less than the direct introduction of the quantitative easing policy more effective.

歐洲中央銀行的第二批,長達三年期的再融資操作,將會在2012年2月29日進行,但預計效果也不會明顯。

European Central Bank, the second batch of up to three years of refinancing operations, will be February 29, 2012, it is expected that the effect is not significantly.

目前看來,歐洲中央銀行,推行的所有舉措,只是為應對歐洲債務困局,爭取多一些時間。

Now it seems that the European Central Bank, the implementation of all initiatives, just in response to the European debt predicament to get some more time.

歐洲的財金官員,若要挽回金融市場的信心,歐洲中央銀行的領導階層,還得肩負更大的使命。“最終貸款人”這頂帽子,是一定要扣在這一羣領袖的頭頂上。對歐元而言,歐洲貨幣的增發,對歐元的前景,最終會令歐元,逐漸帶來下跌的壓力。

European financial officials to restore confidence in financial markets, the leadership of the European Central Bank, have to shoulder a greater mission.
“Lender of last resort" This hat is sure to buckle on the top of the head of this group of leaders.
The increase in European currencies, the prospects for the euro, will eventually and gradually bring the downward pressure of the euro currency.

斯圖加特的Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg銀行分析師Jens-Oliver Niklasch形容:
歐洲中央銀行提出的長期再融資操作是:
「這基本上是從天上掉下來的錢,條件無可挑剔,每一個人,都希望分得一杯羹」。

Jens-Oliver Niklasch, an analyst at Landesbank, Bank of Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart, describe:
The European Central Bank raised the long-term refinancing operations are:
“It’s basically money that falls from the sky, impeccable condition, everyone wants a slice."

歐洲中央銀行設想:只要用極低成本,向銀行注入大量資金,銀行將會積極,申請這塊天上掉下來的餡餅。

The European Central Bank recommends that: just use a very low cost, and to inject a lot of money to the bank, the Bank will actively apply for this come out of the pie.

歐洲中央銀行,為了緩解銀行流動性現鈔的短缺,推出對銀行的3年期融資貸款計劃,金融市場一直希望:這次LTRO項目,能夠等同於一次對銀行的變相救助,因為更多的流動性現金,能夠解決主權債務的原則:國債必須償還的現實。

European Central Bank, in order to alleviate the shortage of bank liquidity cash, launched on the banks of the three-year financing Loan Scheme (LTRO), financial markets have been hoping: financing projects can be equated at once disguised rescue of banks, because of the increased more liquidity in cash, to address the reality of sovereign debt, national debt must be repaid.

這項LTRO計劃,增加了一些具備資格,從歐洲中央銀行融資的銀行名單,實際上:就是將借款合格抵押品的要求降低了,銀行由於能夠使用,風險資產作為抵押品,銀行雖然要支付一定數額的罰款,但是,歐洲中央銀行,將法定存款準備金比率,由2%降至1%之後,銀行就能夠使用更少的抵押品,來獲得貸款了。

LTRO this plan, an increase of some qualification, list of banks financing from the European Central Bank, in fact: the European Central Bank, the loan must be eligible collateral requirements to reduce the bank be able to use the risky assets as collateral, banks have to pay a certain amount of a fine, but the European Central Bank, the statutory reserve ratio by 2% to 1%, banks will be able to use less collateral to obtain loans.

The five countries each month the total debt due
國家 希臘 愛爾蘭 西班牙 葡萄牙 意大利 五國每月到期債款
country Greece Ireland Spain Portugal Italy the total debt due a month
01-2012 43.60 4.74 154.47 39.63 165.95 408.39
02-2012 25.07 0.04 150.37 42.53 630.50 848.51
03-2012 174.51 62.09 94.86 28.32 516.98 876.76
04-2012 20.68 13.03 268.94 10.11 463.92 776.68
05-2012 115.46 0.00 89.23 3.68 194.47 402.84
06-2012 29.91 6.39 67.58 120.49 111.95 336.32
07-2012 30.49 0.00 315.83 10.54 271.16 628.02
08-2012 96.79 0.05 75.44 3.90 280.27 456.45
09-2012 10.19 0.19 78.15 6.12 263.73 358.38
10-2012 11.75 12.01 316.81 17.75 292.34 650.66
11-2012 0.87 0.00 28.53 0.52 227.78 257.70
12-2012 23.35 0.36 57.93 14.74 407.37 503.75
總債款 582.67 98.90 1698.14 298.33 3826.42 6504.46
資料來源: Bloomberg

這篇博客,寫於09-02-2012,香港時間是0.05am,歐元對美元價格是:132.88/93。
This blog, written in 09-02-2012, Hong Kong time is 0.05am, the price of the euro against the U.S. dollar is: 132.88/93.

我確信:由此刻開始,中期而言,歐元會逐漸下跌。投資者應該可以找緊機會,沽出歐元。

I am sure: from this moment on, the medium term, the euro will gradually decline. Investors should be able to seize the opportunity to sell the euro.

我認為:英倫銀行確定會:增加750億英鎊的量化寬鬆貸款金額,用來挽救英國經濟下滑的危機。假設:英國大量印刷現金,全球的資金,必定會隨即氾濫,資產及商品價格,包括:黃金、澳元、紐西蘭元及加拿大元等貨幣,也會向上升高。

In my opinion: the Bank of England to determine: £ 75 billion quantitative easing loan amount, used to save the crisis of British economic decline. Say: British printing cash, global funds, must be immediately flooding, asset and commodity prices, including: Gold, Australian dollar, New Zealand Dollars and Canadian Dollars and other currencies will rise up.

除了英國政府會推出量化寬鬆政策之外。
2012年2月29日,歐洲中央銀行,也有很大機會推出,長期再融資操作方案,即所謂:歐洲式的量化寬鬆政策。屆時,全球資金將更加氾濫,到那時候,澳洲元向上升破1.1美元;黃金價格,重新升上1,900美元,並非是不可能的事情。

In addition to the British Government will introduce quantitative easing policy.
February 29, 2012, the European Central Bank, but also a lot of possibility will be introduced, long-term refinancing operation of the program, which is called: European-style quantitative easing policy.
At this time, the global capital will be more flooding, the Australian dollar rose to break the $ 1.1; the price of gold, re-increase of $ 1,900 is not impossible.

親愛的讀者們:這裡有一個關鍵點,大家必須明白:無論股市、商品及貨幣,投資者,倘若期望它們會進一步上升,必須配合,以下兩個條件中的其中一項:

Dear Readers: Here’s a key point, we must understand: regardless of the stock market, commodities and currencies. If investors expect that they will rise further, must match the one of the following two conditions:
第一是:美國或環球經濟,要持續走強或有跡象走出陰霾,投資者對前景,預期看好的客觀環境,會帶動金融市場上升;

The first is: the United States or global economy, the continued strength or signs out of the haze, investors on the prospects expected to be optimistic about the objective environment, financial markets will lead to rise;

第二是:各國的中央銀行,不斷印刷鈔票,繼續推行量化寬鬆政策,因為這些舉措,都會有助於投資市場,走強下去。

The second is: central banks continue to print money, continue to implement quantitative easing policy, because these initiatives will contribute to the investment market, the strength continues.

讓我再說一遍,在短時期內,盼望環球經濟好轉,帶動投資市場上升,是一個不設實際的想法。我認為:唯一能把商品、貨幣及金價推升。主要靠的是:各國中央銀行,爭相印刷鈔票。
事實是:各國的中央銀行,都各自準備開動印刷鈔票的機器。

Let me say again, look forward to the global economy improves in a short period of time, to drive investment markets rise, is an impractical idea. In my opinion: only able to commodities, currencies, and gold pushed up.
Largely rely on: the central bank of each country, competing to print money.

The fact is: the national central banks, each ready to start printing money machine.

部份參考資料來自:Part of the reference data from:
blog.roodo.com/onlymusic/archives/18577599.html

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議 。

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

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