(chapter 19)Quantitative easing policy, the U.S. economy began to regain their upward trajectory?


(第19章)量化寬鬆貨幣政策能夠令美國經濟開始重拾上升軌道?

(一) 量化寬鬆:是一貨幣政策,由中央銀行,通過公開市場操作模式,提高貨幣供應量,可以視之為「無中生有」地,創造出指定金額的貨幣,也可以簡單化地形容是增加印刷鈔票數量。實際操作是,中央銀行通過公開市場操作,向金融市場購入債券、證券等票據,令到各間個別銀行,在中央銀行開設的結算戶口內,增加資金供應,間接為各間銀行體系,注入新的流動性資金。

(1) Quantitative easing: a monetary policy by the central bank increase the money supply through open market operation mode can be regarded as “nothing" to create a specified amount of currency can also be simplistically described the increase in printing money. The actual operation, the central bank through open market operations to financial market purchase of bonds, securities and other instruments, so that each individual bank in the clearing accounts of the central bank to increase the money supply, and indirectly for the banking system and inject new the flow of funds.

「量化寬鬆」中的「量化」是指:將會創造指定數量金額的貨幣。
「寬鬆」:是指減低銀行的資金壓力。

“Quantitative easing" in the “Quantitative" means: will create a specified number of the amount of currency. “Easing “: means to reduce the pressure on bank funding.

中央銀行利用憑空創造出來的金錢,在公開市場購買政府債券、借錢給接受存款機構、向銀行購買資產等。

The central bank created money to buy government bonds on the open market, lend money to the deposit-taking institutions, from banks to buy assets.

這些措施,都會引起政府債券收益率的下降,銀行同業隔夜利率的降低,各間銀行因此擁有大量只能賺取極低利息的資產。中央銀行期望,各間個別銀行,會因此較願意提供貸款給企業,以賺取回報,紓緩市場的資金壓力。

These measures will lead to the decline in government bond yields, reduced the overnight interbank interest rate, the bank therefore has a large number can only earn a very low interest assets. The central bank expects the individual banks will be more willing to offer loans to enterprises, in order to earn a return and relieve the financial pressure of the slow market.

當銀根已經鬆動,或購買的資產,將隨着通脹而貶值(如國庫債券)時,量化寬鬆會使貨幣傾向貶值。由於量化寬鬆有可能增加貨幣貶值的風險,政府通常會在經濟面對通縮時,推出量化寬鬆的措施。而持續的量化寬鬆,會增加通脹的風險。

Quantitative easing monetary policy has been loose, or purchase assets, as inflation and devaluation (such as Treasury bonds), a tendency to make the currency devaluation. Quantitative easing is likely to increase the risk of currency devaluation the government is usually in the economy facing deflation, the introduction of quantitative easing measures. Continued quantitative easing, will increase the risk of inflation.

(二) 政府推行量化寬鬆政策,可以刺激貸款數量:

(2) The Government’s quantitative easing policy can stimulate the number of loans:

當銀行保持一定比例的存款準備金之後,其餘的資金,便可以作為放貸之用。從量化寬鬆的過程中,銀行增加的存款,可以通過借貸,再創造出更多的貨幣供應,即所謂存款倍數效應(deposit multiplication)。

Banks to maintain a certain proportion of the reserve, the remaining funds can be used as lending to enterprises. From the process of quantitative easing, the Bank increased deposits by borrowing, to re-create more of the money supply, the so-called deposit multiplier effect (deposit multiplication).

例如,假設存款準備金的要求是10%,量化寬鬆每創造$10,000,可以產生的最終貨幣供應為$100,000。

For example, assume that the deposit reserve requirement is 10%, quantitative easing to create $ 10,000, the final money supply is $ 100,000.

量化寬鬆措施,向本地銀行同業市場,提供充足流動資金,最低限度能夠降低金融市場的借貸成本,政府最終期望,所有借款人都能得到好處,以支持整體經濟運作。一般來說,量化寬鬆可支持整體經濟;暢順運行,並有助紓緩或遏抑,經濟逆轉所帶來的影響。

Quantitative easing measures to provide adequate liquidity to local banks in the interbank market, at least to reduce the cost of borrowing in the financial market, the government eventually expect all borrowers can benefit from in order to support the overall operation of the economy. Quantitative easing measures to provide adequate liquidity to local banks in the interbank market, at least to reduce the cost of borrowing in the financial market, the government eventually expect all borrowers can benefit from in order to support the overall operation of the economy.
In general, the implementation of quantitative eases, so that the overall economy, smooth running, and help alleviate the economic downturn impact.

量化寬鬆措施,被形容為「開動印刷鈔票機器」,量化寬鬆措施,其實只是調整電腦上的帳目。

但是,一個國家要實行量化寬鬆,必須對其貨幣有控制權;所以,舉例來說,歐元區內,個別國家,卻不能單方面推出量化寬鬆措施。

Quantitative easing measures have been described as “start printing money machine" quantitative easing measures in fact just adjust the accounts on the computer.
However, for a country to implement quantitative easing, must be its currency control, for example, within the euro zone, the individual countries, but cannot unilaterally launch of quantitative easing measures.

(三) 實行量化寬鬆措施的例子:

(3) Examples of the implementation of quantitative easing measures:

當以減息來增加貨幣供應行不通的時候,中央銀行便可能推出量化寬鬆措施;通常在利率接近零的時候出現。其中,日本銀行於2000年代初期,實行量化寬鬆措施,以對付通縮。針對2007年開始的環球金融危機,美國聯邦儲備局的伯南克,以量化寬鬆手段應付。英國也同樣以量化寬鬆作為金融政策,以減低金融危機的影響。

To cut interest rates to increase the money supply does not work, the central bank may introduce quantitative easing measures; usually when interest rates near zero. Bank of Japan in the early 2000s, the implementation of quantitative easing measures to deal with deflation. The global financial crisis began in 2007, the U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke, the use of the quantitative easing policy to tackle the crisis. Britain also use quantitative easing policy as a financial policy to reduce the impact of financial crisis.

(四) 什麼是量化寬鬆的貨幣政策?

(4)What is quantitative easing of monetary policy?

量化寬鬆的貨幣政策又可以稱為「定量寬鬆」的貨幣政策。

The quantitative easing of monetary policy called “quantitative easing" monetary policy.

一般來說,中央銀行在設立貨幣政策的時候,會將利率目標放在一個特定的短期利率水平之上,中央銀行會通過,向銀行資金市場,注入或者是抽離資金,達到資金利率,處於中央銀行認為是利率目標的位置。

Generally speaking, the central bank in the establishment of monetary policy, the interest rate target on specific short-term interest rates above the level of the central bank by bank funds market, injected or pulled out of funds to achieve the funds rate, in the central bank rate target position.

此時,中央銀行希望調控的是:信貸的成本。

At this point, the central bank hopes that the regulation is: the cost of credit.

定量寬鬆貨幣是指:貨幣政策制定者,將政策關注點,從控制銀行系統的資金價格,轉向資金數量。貨幣政策的目標,就是為了保證貨幣政策,維持在寬鬆的環境下。

Quantitative easing means: monetary policy-makers, policy concerns, from the price of money to control the banking system, steering the amount of money. Monetary policy objective is to ensure that monetary policy remained in a relaxed environment.

對於這個政策而言,「量」是意味著貨幣供應,而「寬鬆」則表示貨幣數量會有很多,當然,定量寬鬆的貨幣政策,也有特定的指標。

For the purposes of this policy, the “quantity" means that the money supply, and “loose" said the quantity of money there will be many, of course, the quantitative easing of monetary policy, there are specific indicators.

採用「定量寬鬆」的貨幣政策,往往意味著,政府將會放棄傳統的貨幣政策,因為對於中央銀行而言,他們不可能,既可以控制資金的價格,又可以控制資金的數量。

“Quantitative easing" monetary policy, often means that the government will abandon the traditional monetary policy, for the central bank, they cannot either control the price of funds, can control the amount of funds.

(五) 政府為甚麼要採取「開動印鈔機」的辦法應付金融風暴?

(5)Why is the Government to take “printing money" to cope with financial turmoil?

因為國家處理貨幣當局,通過大量印刷鈔票,在金融市場上,購買國債或企業債券等方式,向金融市場,注入大量資金,目的是降低市場利率,刺激經濟增長。

Countries to deal with the monetary authorities, by printing money to buy government bonds or corporate bonds in the financial markets, a large injection of funds to financial markets, the aim is to reduce market interest rates to stimulate economic growth.

實施量化寬鬆政策,通常是指:當中央銀行採用,常規的貨幣政策,對刺激經濟無效的情況下,才被管理貨幣當局採用,因為這是「非常規」的貨幣管理政策。

The implementation of the quantitative easing policy, usually means: central banks, conventional monetary policy to stimulate the economy invalid, was the management of the monetary authorities adopted because it is “unconventional" monetary policies.

(六) 日本的量化寬鬆的貨幣政策 :

(6)quantitative easing monetary policy in Japan:

最先採用量化寬鬆貨幣政策的國家是日本。

The countries of the world’s first quantitative easing monetary policy to cope with deflation are the Japanese government.

2001年,日本中央銀行,作出了一個驚人的舉措,他們採用了一個新型的貨幣政策工具。當時,日本政府,在零利率基礎上,實行進一步的擴張性貨幣政策,大量增加貨幣的供應,用來應對經濟層面上出現的通貨緊縮。在此之前,世界上,並沒有任何一個國家,曾經使用過這一種增加貨幣供應的政策。

In 2001, Japan’s central bank, made an amazing move, they have adopted a new monetary policy tools. At that time, the Japanese government on the basis of the zero interest rate, to implement further expansionary monetary policy, a substantial increase in the money supply, used to deal with the economic level, the emergence of deflation. Prior to this, the world, there is no any country, ever used this kind of policy to increase the money supply.

日本所採用的辦法是:將大量超額資金,注入銀行體系中,使長期及短期利率,都處於較低水平,目的是刺激經濟增長,對抗通貨緊縮。

Japan is this: a lot of excess funds injected into the banking system, so that long-term and short-term interest rates are at a low level, the purpose is to stimulate economic growth and fight deflation.

(七)量化寬鬆政策,在刺激經濟走出通貨收縮方面的作用,可以從兩個方面來體現:

(7)Quantitative easing policy, the role of stimulating the economy out of deflation, from two to reflect:

第一方面是:低利率的環境,有利於企業,將成本維持在較低水平,也有利於促進消費,從而對經濟增長,起到積極的推動作用;

The first aspect is: the low interest rate environment, conducive to business, keeping costs at a low level, but also conducive to promoting consumption, which play a positive role in promoting economic growth;

另一方面,充足的資金,還可以使背負著大量不良貸款的日本銀行業,無需擔憂流動性資金的不足,並且,可以在化解不良貸款問題上,採取較為主動的行動,推動金融業,甚至,在其他虧損產業中,能夠進行結構性重新組合。

On the other hand, adequate funding, can also be saddled with a large number of non-performing loans of Japanese banks, do not worry about the lack of liquidity, and to resolve non-performing loans, to take more proactive action to promote financial sector, even other loss industry, structural regroup.

日本是世界上,首先採取貨幣寬鬆政策,應付金融危機的國家,由日本的實踐經驗,可以得到證明:金融危機,會極大地打擊金融業和金融市場的信心。金融市場的「去杠桿化」,經歷的過程會很漫長,因此,在特定的時期內,金融市場的所有資金交易,都會很困難地正常運作;

Japan is the world’s first monetary easing, to cope with the financial crisis in the country, and by practical experience in Japan, can be proved: the financial crisis will be greatly undermined the confidence of the financial sector and financial markets. Financial markets, “deleveraging" going through the process will be very long, in a specific period of time, all financial transactions of the financial markets will be very difficult to operate normally;

另外,由於經濟的全球化和貨幣市場的自由化,一個國家,無限制地增加流動性資金供應,未必能夠刺激本地銀行業對本國的企業資金放貸。也就是說,當資金的回報率,境外與境內有差異的時候,資金會毫不遲疑地選擇逃出境外。

In addition, due to the globalization of the economy and the currency market liberalization, a country, the unlimited increase in the supply of liquidity may not be able to stimulate the local banking sector to the national enterprise funds to lend. That is, when the rate of return of capital, foreign and domestic differences, the funds would not hesitate to choose to escape outside.

(七) 量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對全球經濟的影響:

(8) Quantitative easing monetary policy, the impact of the global economy:

量化寬鬆貨幣政策是一把雙刃劍。因為,實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,政府會向金融市場,注入大量現金,這些舉措,有助於緩解金融市場,資金緊張的狀況,有助於經濟恢復增長。

Quantitative easing monetary policy is a double-edged sword. Because the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy, the Government will inject large amounts of cash to the financial markets, these initiatives will help alleviate the financial markets, shortages of funds to help the economy return to growth.

但是,從長遠角度來看,會埋下通貨膨脹的隱患,在經濟增長停滯的情況下,或許,會引起滯漲。

However, from the long-term point of view, will become a hidden danger of inflation, in the case of stagnant economic growth, perhaps, it will cause stagflation.

另外,量化寬鬆貨幣政策,還會導致本國貨幣大幅貶值,在刺激本國出口的同時,惡化相關貿易體的經濟形式,導致本國與其他國家之間的貿易摩擦等等。

In addition, the quantitative easing of monetary policy, but also led to sharp depreciation of domestic currency to stimulate the country’s exports at the same time, deterioration of the economic form of the relevant trade body, leading to trade friction between the country and other countries.

對於全球經濟霸主的美國而言,實施這種激進的量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對美國和全球經濟的影響,更是不容小覷。

For global economic hegemony of the United States, the implementation of this radical quantitative easing monetary policy, the U.S. and global economy, should not be underestimated.

(九)量化寬鬆貨幣政策,埋下全球通貨膨脹的隱患 :

(9) Quantitative easing monetary policy, planted the hidden dangers of global inflation:

量化寬鬆貨幣政策,實質上,是在脫離實體經濟需求的情況下,開動印鈔票機器,向金融市場,輸入流動性資金。

Quantitative easing monetary policy, in essence, in the case of out of the real economy needs to start printing money machine, enter the liquidity to financial markets.

在市場信心缺失,投資萎縮的情況下,量化寬鬆貨幣政策向市場釋放的流動性資金,不會即時導致通貨膨脹,但是,一旦經濟轉趨好轉,投資信心恢復,過度釋放的流動性資金,便可能會轉化為通貨膨脹。

Lack of market confidence and investment shrinking, quantitative easing monetary policy for the release of liquidity to the market, does not immediately lead to inflation, but once the economy turned better, to restore investors’ confidence, excessive release of liquidity, they may translate into inflation.

尤其是對於美國而言,由於美元是世界儲備貨幣,而且世界主要商品定價,都是以美元為基準。美國聯儲局,實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,將會導致美元大幅貶值,從而引發,新的一輪資源、商品的價格上漲,埋下全球通脹的隱患。

Especially for the United States dollar is the world’s reserve currency, but also the world’s major commodity pricing, are in U.S. dollars as the base. U.S. Federal Reserve, the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy will lead to the sharp depreciation of the dollar, giving rise of a resource, commodity prices, planted the hidden dangers of global inflation.

另外,美國聯儲局的巨額購買債券計劃,推倒了多米諾骨牌。

In addition, the huge U.S. Fed to buy bonds pulled down the dominoes.

其他國家的經濟體系,為了阻止本國貨幣,相對於美元而升值,衝擊本國的出口行業,進一步惡化本國經濟,因此,這些國家便會仿效實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,進一步加劇了,各個國家,未來的通脹壓力。

Economies of other countries, in order to prevent their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar and the appreciation of the impact on the local export industries, further deterioration of the national economy, therefore, these countries will follow the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy, further exacerbating the various countries, the future inflationary pressures.

這也是為什麼短期內,量化寬鬆貨幣政策,會風靡全球主要經濟體的原因。如果量化寬鬆貨幣政策,未能使美國經濟走上復蘇之路,經濟不景氣,將會導致滯漲局面出現。

This is why the short term, quantitative easing monetary policy will be popular in the reasons of the world’s major economies. Quantitative easing monetary policy, cannot make the U.S. economy to the path of recovery, the economic downturn will lead to the emergence of stagflation situation.

(十)量化寬鬆貨幣政策,會惡化相關貿易體的經濟形勢 :

(10) Quantitative easing monetary policy will worsen the economic situation of the relevant trade:

量化寬鬆貨幣政策的最直接的表現之一,便是使本國貨幣大幅貶值,雖然有利於本國的出口行業,但是,也會導致相關經濟體系國家的貨幣升值。

Quantitative easing monetary policy, the most direct expression of one is to make the substantial devaluation of the national currency, although there are beneficial to the country’s export industry, but also lead to the countries of the economic system, currency appreciation.

例如:美國聯儲局宣佈巨額注資計劃當日,世界主要貨幣,相對於美元而言,都大幅升值,其中:歐元升值3.5%,日元升值2.4%,英鎊升值1.6%,加元升值1.7%。

For example: the U.S. Federal Reserve announced the date of the capital infusion program, the world’s major currencies, as opposed to the U.S. dollar, are the sharp appreciation, of which: euro appreciation of 3.5%, 2.4% appreciation of the yen, the pound appreciated by 1.6 percent, Canada currency appreciated by 1.7 percent.

這樣一來便會削弱,相關貿易體系,對美國的出口能力,尤其對於那些處於金融危機漩渦中,出口導向型的新興經濟體系而言。

As a result, will be weakened, and the relevant trading system, the ability to export to the United States, especially for those in financial crisis, export-oriented countries of emerging economies.

英、美、日等全球主要經濟體系,大量的量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對本國經濟造成雪上加霜的打擊,並有可能引發有關聯的國家,彼此的貿易摩擦。

Britain, the United States, Japan and other major global economies, a large number of quantitative easing monetary policy, a worse blow to the national economy and may lead to the associated countries, each other’s trade friction.

(十一)美國聯儲局,大量購買國債,會降低相應持有美國國債國家的外匯資產價值 :

(11) The U.S. Federal Reserve, a large purchase of government bonds will be reduced, corresponding to the country’s foreign exchange value of the assets in U.S. Treasury bonds held:

雖然,本次金融危機,起源於美國。但是,由於美國強大的經濟實力和美元獨一無二的國際地位,美債一度因避險功能,而大受避險的投機者歡迎。

The financial crisis originated in the United States.
However, due to the powerful economic strength and unique international status, the U.S. debt was due to hedging, thus greatly speculators welcome.

包括中國在內的很多國家政府,在本國的外匯資產中,美國國債,都佔有重要地位。

Many governments, including China, the country’s foreign exchange assets in U.S. Treasury bonds, occupy an important position.

美國聯儲局大舉購買美國國債,將推升美國國債價格,但是,降低了國債收益率,從而使持有美國國債國家的外匯資產,存在非常巨大的貶值風險。

The U.S. Federal Reserve aggressively buy U.S. treasury bonds, pushing up U.S. Treasury prices, however, lower yields, so that the holders of the country’s foreign exchange assets of U.S. Treasury bonds, there is a very large devaluation risk.

美國實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,那一天:3月18日當日,美國基準l0年期政府債券收益率從3.01%降至2.5%,開創1981年以來最大單日跌幅。

The United States to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, and that day: on March 18, the U.S. benchmark l0-year government bond yields fell from 3.01% to 2.5%, creating the largest single-day decline since 1981.

對於美國而言,美元貶值和國債收益率降低,都將會導致巨額外匯資金,從美國流出,對於當前仍處於金融危機中的美國經濟而言,也是不得不面對的殘酷現實。

For the United States, the depreciation of the dollar and bond yields lower, will lead to huge amounts of foreign exchange funds, outflows from the United States, the U.S. economy is still in financial crisis, also had to face the harsh reality.

量化寬鬆貨幣政策,是一種非常激進的政策,雖有利於幫助深陷金融危機中的發達經濟體系,緩解信貸緊張的狀況,增加經濟擴張的動力。

The quantitative easing policy is a very radical policy, although beneficial to the help of deep financial crisis in developed economies to ease the tight credit situation, increasing the momentum of economic expansion.

但是,從對全球經濟的大局來看,世界主要經濟體系,尤其是美國實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策,是一種「損人不利己」的行為,它埋下了全球通脹的種子,並有可能導致出口外向型,新型經濟體系,各個國家的經濟,進一步減少外匯儲備資產,令本國貨幣面對,大幅貶值等問題的產生。

However, look at the overall situation on the global economy, the world’s major economies, especially the United States to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, is " a dog in the manger" behavior, it planted the seeds of global inflation, and may lead to export-oriented, new economies, each country’s economy, further reducing the foreign currency reserve assets. These countries have to face the national currency, the sharp depreciation of generation.

(十二)美國聯儲局,量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對中國經濟的影響:

(12) U.S. Fed, quantitative easing monetary policy, the impact of China’s economy:

在未來一段時間里,隨著國際金融機構「去杠桿化」進程的逐漸結束,美國聯儲局,向金融市場注入的大量流動資金,會通過各種渠道,流向包括中國在內的新興市場國家。

In the next period of time, with the international financial institutions “to the gradual end of the deleveraging process”, the U.S. Federal Reserve injected liquidity to financial markets, through various channels, flows to emerging market countries, including China.

同時,美國聯邦基金利率,已經降至接近零利率的水平,日前中國的一年期存款利率,經過四次降息到2.25%,還是遠高於美國聯邦基準利率水平,短期內,美國聯儲局加息的可能性不會很大,中國與美國的利息差距局面,將會繼續維持。

Meanwhile, the U.S. federal funds rate has fallen to a level close to zero interest rates, a few days ago China’s one-year deposit interest rate, after four interest rate cut to 2.25%, still much higher than the U.S. federal benchmark interest rates in the short term, the United States Federal Reserve Board, to increase the possibility of interest, will not be great, the interest gap between the situation in China and the United States will continue to maintain.

在這種情形下,短期內,國際資金,流入中國的趨勢,還會持續。

In this case, short-term international capital flows into China trend will continue.

然而,一旦美國經濟進入持續復蘇,美國聯儲局,必定會逐步退出量化寬鬆政策,並且會逐漸收緊銀根。美國拆借市場利率和聯邦基金利率,將會上升。

However, once the U.S. economy into a sustained recovery, the U.S. Federal Reserve must gradually withdraw from the quantitative easing policy, and will gradually tighten the money supply. Interbank market interest rates and the federal funds rate will rise.

這些舉措,會使美元升值,並會促使部分套利交易者,平倉離開市場。

These initiatives will make the dollar, and will lead to some arbitrage traders leave the market.

一旦美元企穩走強,國債利率隨即上升,商品價格會大幅回落,資產泡沫可能隨之而爆破。

Once the U.S. dollar stabilized strong, then rise in Treasury rates, commodity prices will fall sharply, asset bubbles may be followed by blasting.

大量投機性資金隨後便會撤出中國,造成資產、商品價格的大幅波動,給中國的金融穩定,埋下巨大的隱患。

A large number of speculative capitals will be followed by withdrawal, resulting in assets, the sharp fluctuations in commodity prices, China’s financial stability, and laid a huge risk.

20世紀90年代,東南亞國家的資產泡沫破裂,因而引發了金融危機。這一些深刻教訓,投資者必須引以為鑒。

In the 1990s, the Southeast Asian country’s asset bubble burst, thereby triggering the financial crisis. This is a profound lesson, investors must learn a lesson.

量化寬鬆貨幣政策,加大了美元匯率的波動,增加了人民幣匯率機制改革的難度。2005年7月21日,自從匯率形成機制改革以來,人民幣匯率水平,似乎也發生了明顯的變化。

Quantitative easing monetary policy, increase the volatility of the dollar, an increase of RMB exchange rate mechanism, the difficulty of reform. July 21, 2005, since the exchange rate formation mechanism reform, the RMB exchange rate, seems to have occurred a significant change.

然而,從2008年7月到2009年3月,金融危機急劇惡化,國際金融市場的投資者,避險情緒升溫,國際金融機構和企業紛紛將資金撤回美國或兌換成美元資產,導致美元兌換主要貨幣匯率,保持升值趨勢。

However, from July 2008 to March 2009, the financial crisis, a sharp deterioration in international financial markets, investors, risk aversion, international financial institutions and enterprises have the funds to withdraw the United States or converted into U.S. dollars of assets, leading to the dollar mainly currency exchange rates, to keep the appreciation trend.

在這些背景下,人民幣事實又重歸,緊跟着美元的匯率制度,人民幣兌美元的波動幅度,維持在6.82~6.84之間波動。

In these circumstances, the RMB exchange rate, again followed by the dollar’s exchange rate regime, the fluctuations of the RMB against the U.S. dollar to maintain fluctuated in the range of 6.82 to 6.84.

2009年3月下旬,美國量化寬鬆貨幣政策推出,導致美國通貨膨脹預期上升、國債融資風險增加,美元融資利差交易活躍,加上全球經濟回復上升,令到美元作為避險工具的需求,逐漸減弱,原本以美元資產保值的資金,重新追逐其他有高收益回報的資產,美元又再度,呈現貶值趨勢。

In late March 2009, the U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy was launched in the U.S. inflation is expected to rise, increased risk of debt financing, leading to the financing of the dollar carry trade is active, together with the global economy returns to rise, so that the U.S. dollar as hedging instruments demand waning, originally preservation funds dollar-denominated assets, re-chase the other high-yield return on assets, the dollar again, showing a depreciation trend.

隨著美元匯價弱勢,人民幣匯率,自從2009年3月份後,連續7個月,呈現貶值態勢,名義有效匯率和實際有效匯率,分別貶值9.17%和7.67%。

With the weak U.S. dollar, the RMB exchange rate since March 2009 after seven consecutive months, showed a depreciation trend of the nominal effective exchange rate and real effective exchange rate, depreciation of 9.17% and 7.67% respectively.

在美元貶值和短期國際資本湧入的背景下,人民幣升值壓力,再次顯現,中國政府,不太可能選擇大幅升值的策略。

The context of the depreciation of the dollar, and the influx of short-term international capital, RMB appreciation pressure, appeared again, the Chinese government, and less likely to choose the sharp appreciation of the strategy.

首先,在大幅升值方式下,熱錢會在很短暫的時間內,就可以獲得升值帶來的收益,熱錢獲利的成本將大大降低。

First, the sharp appreciation of the way, the hot money in a very short period of time will be able to get the appreciation of the benefits the cost of the hot money profits will be greatly reduced.

其次,中國也很難找到一個,均衡匯率點,因為,中國無法計算出,怎樣的升值幅度,才是一個合適的水平。

Secondly, it is difficult to find a point of equilibrium exchange rate, because China cannot be calculated, how the rate of appreciation is an appropriate level.

如果中國採取大幅升值策略,人民幣匯率,很可能出現超越調節現象,資金流向逆轉的風險增大。

Assume that China has adopted the strategy of the sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is likely to occur beyond the adjustments, the reversal of capital flows, is very risky.

假設,一次性大幅升值以後,如果沒有升到適當的位置,金融市場,有可能,還會有下一次的升值預期,這樣便會造成過多資金的不斷流入。

Assumptions one-off revaluation, if not rise to the appropriate location, financial markets, it is possible, there will be the next expected appreciation, and this will cause too much funds inflow.

無論出現上述哪一種情形,都會造成資金,大量進入中國或急速撤離中國的現象,因而產生巨大的金融風險。

No matter what kind of circumstances, will result in capital poured into China or rapidly withdrawing from the Chinese, the phenomenon that results in enormous financial risk.

再者,匯率大幅升值,對中國出口型的企業,將帶來較大衝擊,經濟可能出現大幅下滑,進而引發嚴重的失業問題。

Furthermore, the sharp exchange rate appreciation, will be a big impact on China’s export-oriented enterprises, the economy may have fallen sharply, triggering a serious unemployment problem.

美國推出史無前例的量化寬鬆政策,對中國貨幣政策最直接的影響是:中國只能被動跟隨美國進行調整。

The United States launched an unprecedented quantitative easing policy, the most direct impact of monetary policy to China: China can only be adjusted passively follow the United States.

假設,中國不跟隨美國和全球的量化寬鬆政策,人民幣將可能產生更大的升值壓力,帶來更多的資金流入。

Assumptions, China does not follow the U.S. and global quantitative easing policy, the RMB will likely have a greater appreciation of the pressure to bring more capital inflows.

如果,中國緊跟美國的政策,由於中國的家庭和金融機構,並不存在「去杠桿化」的問題,那麼中國貨幣供應量,將會十分充足。

If China followed by the policy of the United States, due to family and financial institutions in China, does not exist “deleveraging", so the Chinese money supply will be adequate.

因此,無論中國跟隨,還是背離美國的貨幣政策,都會出現流動性資金充裕的情形,當這種情況出現的話,將無可避免地,推動商品或資產價格泡沫的出現。

Therefore, regardless of China to follow, or to give up to follow U.S. monetary policy, ample liquidity situation, then when this happens, it will inevitably to promote the emergence of the commodity or asset price bubbles.

從中長期來看,由於中國人儲蓄額大於投資額,貿易順差又居高不下,這兩種因素,在較長時期內,都難以改變。

Medium and long term, due to the savings of the Chinese people is greater than the amount of investment, the trade surplus remains high, these two factors, a longer period of time, are difficult to change.

從短期來看,熱錢不斷流入中國;由於中國以外的其他國家,商品補充及庫存需求,不斷帶動中國商品,增加出口;全球的資金,流向中國,中國外匯儲備,加速上升,人民幣幣值,升值的壓力,大為增加。流動性過剩的資金,便會推高商品及物價水平。

The short term, hot money inflows into China; countries other than China, commodity supplemental and inventory requirements, continue to drive Chinese goods, and increasing exports; global capital flows to China, China’s foreign exchange reserves, accelerating the rise, the value of the RMB appreciation pressure is greatly increased. Liquidity surplus funds will be pushing up commodity and the price level.

由於人民幣匯率,重新跟隨美元的匯率機制,根據蒙代爾的「三元悖論」,當資金跨境流動時,在沒有辦法得到有效控制的情況下,中國中央銀行,便會,部分喪失貨幣政策的自主性。

The RMB exchange rate re-follows the dollar’s exchange rate mechanism, according to Mundell’s trilemma, when cross-border flows of funds in case there is no way to get effective control, the Chinese central bank will, in part the loss of monetary policy autonomy.

三元悖論(The Impossible Trinity),也稱三難選擇
根據蒙代爾的三元悖論,一個國家的經濟目標有三種:
① 國家貨幣政策的獨立性;
② 匯率的穩定性;
③ 資金的完全流動性。
這三者,一個國家,只能三選其二,而不可能三者兼得。
Trilemma (The Impossible Trinity), also known as the trilemma
According to Mundell Trilemma, a country’s economic objectives are three kinds
① The National monetary policy independence;
② Exchange rate stability;
③ Full capital mobility;
Only three selected second, but not three ways.

中國匯率調控的政策,只能追隨美國貨幣的匯率政策,同步調整。

Exchange control policy in China, only to follow the U.S. currency’s exchange rate policy, simultaneous adjustment.

當美國聯儲局發出信號非常明確,甚至是宣佈加息之後,中國中央銀行,才會提升存款及貸款基準利率。

When the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase the signal of interest, is very clear, even hiked interest rates, the Chinese central bank will increase deposit and benchmark lending rate.

不知從哪時候開始,投資,已經變成,風險與避險之間,二擇其一的遊戲。金融市場的投機者,會不約而同地,購買高風險(risk on)的金融產品,例如:股票、商品、高息債券、澳洲貨幣,紐西蘭貨幣等。令到上述投資項目,不斷上升;相反,當避險情緒高張的時候,金融市場的投機者,便又會轉移投資目標,一窩蜂地集體購買(risk off)美元、美國國債、日本貨幣等。

I do not know where to start, investment, has become a risk and hedging, select one of the game. Financial market speculators, coincidentally, the purchase of high-risk (risk on) the financial products, such as: stocks, commodities, high yield bonds, the currency of Australia, New Zealand currency.
So that the investment projects, rising; In contrast, when risk aversion, financial market speculators, in turn will transfer the investment objectives, collective to buy U.S. dollars (risk off), and U.S. Treasury bonds, the Japanese currency.

假設:您是一名投資者,您會怎樣面對?

Assumption: you are an investor you will be how to face?

美國經濟,開始重拾上升軌道?
The U.S. economy began to regain their upward trajectory?

第20章我們會討論上述話題。
In Chapter 20 we will discuss the above topics.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議
My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

參考文獻
1.林純潔.貨幣政策調控手段回歸"量化".第一財經日報
2.王靜娜.美聯儲量化寬鬆貨幣政策對中國經濟的影響.現代商業,2010年5期
3.耿群.日本結束量化寬鬆貨幣政策的影響分析.國際金融研究,2006年5期
4.孟繁興,宋維演.金融危機下的量化寬鬆貨幣政策之分析.山東商業職業技術學院學報.2009年3期
5. 維基百科

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