(Chapter 18)Global banks are deleveraging to implement the policy, explain to investors what?


(第18章)全球銀行都實行的「去槓桿化政策」,向投資者說明了甚麼?
(一)「槓桿化」的定義:
所謂「槓桿化」簡單的說來,就是:某一個人,他拿出1塊錢,但是,他作出的投資額度,卻超過本錢數倍的投資。

(1)"Leverage" of the definition:

The so-called “leverage" Simply put, that is: an individual, he took out a dollar, but the amount of investment he made, but several times more than capital investment.

而「去槓桿化」指的就是:減少使用金融槓桿的過程。

The “deleveraging" refers to: reduce the use of financial leverage in the process.

銀行或金融機構,把通過各種方式或工具借入的款項,退還給放貸者的行政措施。

Banks or financial institutions to borrow through a variety of methods or tools of money, returned to the lender’s administrative measures.

個別的銀行或金融機構執行「去杠杆化」政策,會對金融市場和經濟,產生重大深遠的惡劣影響。

Individual banks or financial institutions to implement “deleveraging" policy, will the financial markets and economy have a significant adverse impact far-reaching.

假使,整個金融市場,都進入這個進程,大部分金融機構或投資者,都會被迫或主動的,把過去採用杠杆方式,借入的金錢,回吐出來,那麼,這些影響,顯然是不容忽視。

If the entire financial market, have entered the process, most financial institutions or investors will be forced or voluntary, and the way past the use of leverage, borrowing money, taking out, then these effects, obviously cannot be ignored.

有一些學者認為,如果這股風潮蔓延,那麼,原先支持金融市場的大量複雜的衍生商品組合,杠杆放大的投資工具,會被直接或間接摧毀。

Some scholars believe that if this trend spread, then, the original support a large number of complex financial markets, a combination of derivatives, leverage magnified investment tools will be directly or indirectly destroy.

當金融市場的,衍生工具市場萎縮,相關的行業,例如股票、商品、地產等行業,便會遭受重創,金融市場現金的流動性,便會大幅縮減,導致經濟衰退 。

When the financial markets, derivatives markets shrinking, related industries, such as equities, commodities, real estate and other industries will suffer heavy losses, the cash liquidity of financial markets will be substantially reduced, leading to economic recession.

甚至有機構投資者認為,美國即將進入大規模去杠杆化的過程,這種影響將逐步向實體經濟擴散,導致美國陷入衰退,整個經濟調整期或許需要十年。
Even institutional investors believe that the U.S. is about to enter the massive deleveraging process, this effect will gradually spread to the real economy, leading the U.S. into recession, the economic adjustment period may take a decade.

「去杠杆化」會導致什麼 嚴重後果?

“Deleveraging" will lead to any serious consequences?

「去杠杆化」將會如何影響,當前的商品市場和資本市場呢?

“Deleveraging" will impact the current commodity markets and capital markets?

(二)甚麼叫「杠杆融資」?

「杠杆融資」是指:金融機構總部,以某一成員企業的名義及其資產,作為抵押進行負債融資,然後,借助財務公司或通過其他融資步驟,將所籌措的債務資金,提供給母公司或其他成員企業使用。

(2)What is “leveraged finance"?

“Leveraged Finance" means: the headquarters of financial institutions, to name a member company, its assets, as collateral for debt financing, then, with the finance company or other financial steps to the raising of debt capital available to parent or other members of the business use.

而「去杠杆化」是指:解除「杠杆融資」的操作,把借入的金錢,退還給放貸的金融機構。
The “deleveraging" means: remove “leveraged finance" operations, to borrow money, return to the lending financial institutions.

(三)經濟學的範疇上是什麼意思?

通俗地說,「去杠杆化」就是一間公司或個人,減少使用金融杠杆的頻率和幅度,把原先通過各種方式借入的金錢,退還給放貸機構,這種情況,逐漸形成一種經濟潮流。

(3)Areas of economics, “deleveraging" means what?

In layman’s terms, “deleveraging" is a company or individual, the use of financial leverage to reduce the frequency and amplitude, the original money borrowed through a variety of ways, returned to the lending institution, this situation has gradually formed an economic trend.

這種潮流,對社會經濟的影響極大,甚至,可能導致流動性資金枯竭,甚至,使金融危機不斷加深和擴大。

This trend, a great economic impact on society, and even may lead to liquidity dried up, even, so that the financial crisis continues to deepen and expand.

一般人認為,「去杠杆化」包括五個階段,即金融產品的去杠杆化、金融機構的去杠杆化、投資者的去杠杆化、消費者的去杠杆化、去全球化(貿易保護主義盛行)。

Most people think, “deleveraging" consists of five stages, namely, the deleveraging of financial products, financial institutions deleveraging, investor deleveraging, consumer deleveraging, de-globalization (trade protectionism .)

當然,這五個階段也並非涇渭分明,常常又有時間和空間上的交集。

Of course, this is not entirely different in five stages, often have time and space of the intersection.

讓我詳細再一次說一說,經濟學裡「杠杆」包含些甚麼意義。

Let me once again to talk about economics in the “leverage" contains something meaningful.

例如:你有1W塊錢做投資,(假設:每1W可以賺到1W或者虧掉1W),如果錢都是你自己的,那就是沒有杠杆原素。

For example: you have a 1W dollars to invest, (assumption: each1W can make 1W or lose money 1W), if money is your own, that is not leveraged elements.

如果5000是借來的,就是用了杠杆。

If 5000 is borrowed, that is to use a lever.

在杠杆的情況下,假設用5000+5000本金賺到了1W,本金中5000的借款付了500的利息(假設),那麼你還了借款以後,淨賺了2W-1W-500=9500

In the case of leverage, assuming that the principal with 5000 +5000 make the 1W, borrowers pay principal in 5000, 500 of interest (assumed), then you have a loan after a net profit of 2W-1W-500 = 9500.

但是,如果你不用杠杆,就拿自己的5000去賺了5000,那你的收益就少了9500-5000=4500。

But if you do not have leverage, take only the principal amount of 5000 to earn 5,000, then your income, less the 9500-5000 = 4500.

但是,假設:投資的結果,並沒有賺進金錢,相反是虧錢,在用了杠杆的情況下,虧損也會放大。

However, the assumptions: investment results, and no earned money, the opposite is losing money, in the case of using the leverage, the loss will be magnified.

(四)銀行業 「去杠杆化」是什麼意思?

銀行業「去杠杆化」的意思就是:銀行減少,對投資客人的支撐。

(4)Banking sector “deleveraging" mean what?

Banking sector “deleveraging" means: the bank will reduce the investment to support the guests.

因為我們知道,投機客人,利用銀行的杠杆作用特別多,例如:投資者如果不打算利用銀行的貸款購買房子,他要買100萬塊錢的房子,假設房子的價格是100萬,投資者最多只能買一間屋。

Because we know speculators guests, use the leverage of banks particularly, for example: investors, if he do not intend to use bank loans to buy houses, investors, one million dollars to buy a house, assuming the house price is 100 million, investment who can only buy a house.

如果用銀行的資金,進行杠杆方式,買入房屋,把首期付款,降低到10%。那麼價值100萬的房屋,10萬塊錢就能購買一間房屋。你就可以買十間屋,投機客人,把買入房子的投資額,擴大10倍,也就是說:假如你的投機,本來可以賺進10%,但是,進行杠杆化投機,你就可以賺100%。假如,你可以賺20%,就可以賺200%之多。

If using bank funds to leverage resources, buying houses, the down payment reduced to 10%. Then the value of 1 million houses, 100,000 dollars can buy a house. You can buy ten houses, speculation guests to purchase the investment house, to expand 10-fold, that is: if your speculation, could have earned 10%, however, the leveraged speculation, you can earn 100 percent. If you can earn 20%, you can earn as much as 200%.

「去杠杆化」這一個辭語,如今正成為全球基金經理和經濟學者口中的熱門詞彙。

“Deleveraging" This is a speech language, and now is becoming a global fund manager and economists, the mouth of the popular vocabulary.

從南極至北極,從華爾街到香港,從美國聯儲局主席到頂級的對沖基金操盤者,嘴裡念叨的,都是這個名詞,以及,隱藏在它背後的,那個風雨飄搖、步步驚心的金融市場。

From the Antarctic to the Arctic, from Wall Street to Hong Kong from the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman to the top of the hedge fund manipulator, mouth talking about, are the term, and, hidden behind it, that precarious, startling step by step the financial markets.

在其中一些人心目中,「去杠杆化」肯定會是未來時代的主題詞,它揭示出全球金融市場的重大變化,相對過去三十年,世界金融發展作出嶄新的修正。

In the minds of some people, “deleveraging" is sure to be the next era of keyword, it reveals significant changes in global financial markets, the relative in the past three decades, the world’s financial development, make new amendments.

這股浩浩蕩蕩席捲全球的“去杠杆化”風潮,究竟會給世界經濟和市場帶來哪些影響呢?在全球化背景下,內地投資者該如何應對呢?

金融界的人,把原先利用各種方式,例如:房屋貸款、汽車貸款、信用卡、衍生性金融產品等渠道,借入的金錢,退還給借出款項的金融機構。

Financial people, the original use of a variety of ways, such as: housing loans, car loans, credit cards, derivative financial products and other channels, borrow money, return to lending money to financial institutions.

槓桿化被認為是:次貸危機發生的主要原因,因為,根據資料顯示,有一些金融機構,利用槓桿比例投機,竟然高達本來資金60倍之多。

Leverage is considered to be: the main reason for the subprime mortgage crisis, because, according to statistics, there are some financial institutions, the proportion of speculative leverage, funds have been as high as 60 times.

當這些金融機構,發生巨額虧損之後,便逐步縮減風險資產規模,而風險資產規模縮減的過程,就被稱為「去槓桿化」。

When these financial institutions, the occurrence of huge losses, they will gradually reduce the risk of asset size, asset size and risk reduction process is called deleveraging.

(五)歐美的「去槓桿化」,主要有三方面:

(5) European and American market called “deleveraging", there are three main areas:

(甲) 信貸市場的規則改變了,有些企業,以前能以企業的資產,向金融市場發行債券,現在,雖然提供高昂的利息,也難於找到能夠融資的市場;

(A) changed the rules of the credit market, some companies, previously to the assets of the enterprise, the financial markets, bonds, and now, while providing high interest rates, but also difficult to find, to the financing market;

(乙) 總數約8萬億美元的「證券化市場」仍未復蘇,嚴重影響美國消費者的信貸總額;

(B) The total number of about 8 trillion dollar securitization market has not yet to recover, seriously affect the total amount of U.S. consumer credit;

(丙) 全球各個國家,都正在討論增加金融機構的法定資本比例,減低金融機構的槓桿比例,這是一個長遠的結構性改變。

(C) All countries are being discussed to increase the financial institutions, statutory capital ratio, to reduce the financial institutions, leverage ratio, which is a long-term structural change.

(六)銀行或金融機構實施「去杠杆化」,會導致什麼嚴峻的後果?

(6) Bank or financial institution, “deleveraging", would lead to what serious consequences?

「去杠杆化」影響當前的商品和資本市場:

“Deleveraging" affect current commodity and capital markets:

「去杠杆化」的第一階段:

“Deleveraging" of the first stage:

「去杠杆化」是從「金融產品的去杠杆化」開始的。

“Deleveraging" from the “deleveraging of financial products," began.

金融繁榮時期,在眾多證券化的資產基礎上,產生了大量衍生結構性金融產品。例如CDO、CDS等。這就是「金融產品的杠杆化」。

Financial boom in the number of securities on the basis of the assets, resulting in a large number of derivative structured financial products. For example,CDO, CDS, etc. This is the “leveraged financial products."

當美國房地產價格開始向下趨勢,房屋貸款違約率上升時,其中的影響,首先體現在,各種建立在次級按揭房屋貸款基礎上的衍生產品的價格上。

When the downward trend in U.S. real estate prices, mortgage default rates rise, which influence is reflected in the various built on subprime mortgage loans on the basis of housing, derivatives prices.

這是由於杠杆化操作,衍生的產品,能夠放大內在資產價值的變化。「金融產品的去杠杆化」就是此類衍生性金融產品,市場灰飛煙滅的過程。

This is due to operating leverage, derivative products, can amplify the intrinsic value of assets. “Deleveraging of financial products" is the type of derivative financial products, market wiped out the process.

「去杠杆化」的第二階段:

“Deleveraging" of the second stage:

金融機構的「去杠杆化」

Financial institutions, “deleveraging"

過去一段較長時間以來,不僅投資銀行,就連商業銀行,都購買了大量杠杆化的金融產品。

Over a longer period of time, not just investment banks, commercial banks even have to buy a large number of leveraged financial products.

這些金融機構的資金來源,包括商業銀行吸收的存款和投資銀行在短期資金市場,拆借回來的現金,例如:債券票據上的融資。由於利率偏低和充裕的流動性現金,大幅度降低了借貸成本。因此,大多數的金融機構,都擁有大量流動現金。

These financial institutions, funding sources including commercial banks to absorb the short-term deposits and investment banks in capital markets, lending cash back, for example: notes on the bond financing. As low interest rates and ample liquidity in cash, a significant reduction in the cost of borrowing, therefore, most financial institutions have a lot of cash flow.

金融機構,把大量借貸回來的現金,投資在金融衍生產品上,由於各種類別的商品,在金融市場的上升趨勢逆轉,結果,造成了巨大損失,現實迫使銀行,須要減記不良資產,並且大幅增加,銀行整體資產負債表對風險類資產的暴露。

Financial institutions, a large amount of cash back loans, investments in financial derivatives, due to various types of commodities, the upward trend in the financial markets reversed the result, causing huge losses, reality forced the banks need to write down bad assets, and significantly increase the bank’s overall balance sheet risk exposure to asset classes.

這就是金融機構的「去杠杆化」。

This is the financial institutions, “deleveraging."

「去杠杆化」的第三階段——投資者的「去杠杆化」:

“Deleveraging" of the third stage – the investors, “deleveraging":

金融機構的「去杠杆化」嚴重削弱了金融機構的仲介功能。

Financial institutions, “deleveraging", seriously weakened the intermediary function of financial institutions.

在金融市場上,具體表現在信貸成本大幅上升,借貸條件變得異常苛刻。

In the financial markets, in particular in credit costs have risen sharply, credit conditions become very harsh.

令到那些長期依賴金融機構,獲得部分短期資金來源的各類機構投資者(例如:對沖基金),缺少了現金的來源,因此,只能出售其所持有的資產(尤其是風險較高的資產)來保持足夠的現金儲存,以準備不時之需(例如:投資者贖回基金的浪潮)。

So to those who rely on financial institutions, access to some types of short-term sources of funds of institutional investors (for example: hedge funds), the lack of a source of cash, therefore, can only sell its holdings of assets (particularly high-risk assets) in order to keep enough cash saved to prepare for contingencies (for example: the wave of investor redemptions).

「去杠杆化」的第四階段 —消費者的「 去杠杆化」。

“Deleveraging" of the fourth stage – the consumer’s “deleveraging."

當消費者加入出售資產行列,便會加劇了各類資產(尤其是房屋、地產)價格的下跌,並且產生,負減的財富效應。歐、美國家都是以家庭為單位,代表消費者,他們所能做的唯一選擇,就是增加淨儲蓄,以緩解家庭淨財富的萎縮,這些消費者,只能通過減少舉債或提高儲蓄率來實現家庭財政的平衡。這一種以消費的放緩為代價的增加儲蓄,反過來,會進一步加劇了,實體經濟基本面,增加經濟惡化的速度和陷入消費行業的衰退。

Consumers join the ranks of the sale of assets, adding all kinds of assets (particularly housing, real estate) prices fell, and produced by the negative wealth effect. European and American countries are the family unit, on behalf of consumers, the only choice they can do, is to increase the net savings net household wealth to alleviate the decline, these consumers can only be improved by reducing debt or saving rate to achieve financial balance of the family. This kind of slowdown in consumption at the expense of increased savings, in turn, will further exacerbate the real economy fundamentals, increasing the rate of deterioration and decline into the consumer industry.

「去杠杆化」的第五階段:

“Deleveraging" of the fifth stage:

面臨經濟基本面的惡化,各國政府紛紛出台,刺激經濟的政策方案。政策的效果不僅是:政府主導的支出規模,而且,也取決於其「乘數效應」的大小。如果要放大「乘數效應」,只有要求有關政府的支出,儘量用於購買在本國製造的產品。

Facing the deterioration of economic fundamentals, governments have introduced policy options to stimulate the economy. Effect of the policy is not only: the scale of government-led spending, but also depends on its “multiplier effect" in size. If you want to enlarge the “multiplier effect", and only require the government spending, as much as possible for the purchase of products manufactured in the country.

否則,刺激效應,會通過進口,而「漏出」到本國經濟系統之外,不能使本國經濟得到益處。這就為貿易保護主義,提供了堂而皇之的理由。

Otherwise, the stimulating effect, through imports, and the “leakage" to the country’s economic system, but cannot make their own economic benefit this way, it is trade protectionism, the glamorous reasons.

各國政府推行「自己照顧自己」的結果,就是「全球經濟的去杠杆化」,或稱之為「去全球化」。

Governments in implementing the “take care of himself “, the result is “global deleveraging", or so-called “de-globalization."

金融海嘯肆虐到全球各個地域,所到之處,滿目瘡痍。雖然全球各國政府用盡辦法,進行金融改革,希望災後重建。

To the Financial tsunami ravaged regions around the world, wherever it went, devastated. While governments around the world means exhausted, for financial reforms in the hope reconstruction.

全球最龐大的債券基金公司PIMCO,投資天王葛洛斯說:世界將進入一種「新常態」。

The world’s largest bond fund PIMCO, Bill Gross investment King said: the world will enter a “new normal."

他的意思是:金融市場上,銀行「去槓桿化」的時代已經來臨,因為政府監管銀行的措施,逐漸趨於嚴謹。

What he means is: financial markets, banks’ deleveraging, “the time has come, because the government’s measures to control banks, becoming more and more strict.

世界經濟火車頭,美國國內的消費力,也逐漸向下。

The world’s economic locomotive the U.S. domestic consumption, but also gradually downward.

美國為了推動經濟成長,令到國家債台高築,即使,財政尚有盈餘的國家,例如中國等,全力幫助,也難於補足,資金的缺口。

The United States in order to promote economic growth, so that national debt, even though, there are fiscal surplus countries such as China, is dedicated to helping, but also difficult to make up, the funding gap.

美國債券之王比爾•格羅斯的最新觀點是,美國銀行的「去杠杆化」進程,已經導致美國三大主要資產類別:股票、債券、房地產的價格,整體不斷往下跌。

U.S. bond King Bill Gross’s latest view is that Bank of America’s “deleveraging" process, has led to three major U.S. asset classes: stocks, bonds, real estate prices continue to fall overall.

格羅斯認為,全球金融市場,目前處於「去杠杆化」的過程中,導致大多數資產的價格,出現下降趨勢,例如:黃金、鑽石、穀物這樣的東西。

Gross believes that the global financial markets, is currently in a “deleveraging" process, resulting in most of the asset prices are declining, such as: gold, diamonds, grains such things.

格羅斯表示,一旦進入去杠杆化進程,包括風險利差、流動性利差、市場波動水準、乃至期貨,都會上升。

Gross said:Once the deleveraging process, including risk spreads, liquidity spreads, volatility levels, as well as futures will rise.

資產價格將因此受到衝擊。

Asset prices will therefore be affected.

而且,個進程將不是單向的,而是互相影響、彼此加強的。

Moreover, a process will not be one-way, but influence each other and mutually reinforcing.

例如,投資者,當意識到,次貸風險將會出現時,投資者,會解除在次級債券上的投資杠杆時,那些和這些債券,有套利關係的其他債券,或持有這些債券的其他投資者,以及他們持有的其他品種債券,都會遭受嚴重影響。

For example, investors, when realized, will be the sub-prime risk, investors will be lifted on the investment in the secondary bond leverage, those and these bonds are arbitrage bonds of the other, or hold these bonds of other investors, as well as other varieties bonds they hold, will suffer severely affected.

讓我寄語投資者:必須在金融海嘯爆破之前,裝備應對的技巧。咬緊牙關,努力撐過,黎明前的黑暗。

I message to investors: Prior to the financial tsunami blasting, equipment response skills. Get through the Pre-dawn darkness.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

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