(Chapter 15)Nine euro area countries, sovereign rating is Standard & Poor’s reduced; Do you know the fuse is?


讀者都應該記得,根據我寫作的進度,這一期應該寫「利差交易」。
Readers should remember that, according to the progress of writing, this issue should write the “carry trade."

由於標準普爾把歐洲九個國家的主權評級降低,觸動了金融市場敏感的神經線,很多人都緊張起來,所以臨時轉換了話題,敬請原諒。
As the Standard & Poor’s sovereign rating in nine European countries to reduce, touched sensitive nerves of financial markets, many people are nervous, so the temporary changed the subject, please forgive me.

歐洲聯盟和歐元區於2012年1月20日,經歷了一個「黑色星期五」,歐元區有九個國家的主權評級,被標準普爾降低,您知道導火線是甚麼嗎?
European Union and the euro zone in January 20, 2012, experienced a “Black Friday", nine countries have the euro area sovereign rating by Standard & Poor’s reduced, do you know the fuse is?

這是由於:希臘政府與「國際金融學會」的代表談判其失敗。
This is due to: the Greek government and the “Institute of International Finance," the representative of the negotiations to fail.

「國際金融學會」是「對沖基金」的談判代表。
“Institute of International Finance" is a “hedge fund" negotiator.

希臘的國債,由於價格不斷下降,最終,大部份落入對沖基金的口袋裏。
Greek government bonds, as prices continued to fall, eventually, the majority of hedge funds into the pockets.

這些對沖基金都是豺狼的化身,他們對可能遇到的風險都計算清楚。
These hedge funds are the embodiment of wolves; their possible risks are clearly calculated.

希臘政府原來的設想是,使用高壓辦法,企圖強迫對沖基金自動削減債款50%。
Greek Government’s original plan is to use high-pressure methods in an attempt to force hedge funds to reduce debt 50% automatically.

但是,這些對沖基金,寧願希望希臘政府宣布違約,以便通過違約掉期,向出售CDS的保險公司或金融機構,取得全部金額的賠償。
However, these hedge funds, would rather hope that the Greek government announced default, so by default swaps, to sell CDS insurance company or financial institution to obtain the full amount of compensation.

2012年1月16日。法國總統薩爾科齊及德國總理默克爾在柏林會面,他們都希望歐洲聯盟可在2012年3月1日前,簽訂更緊密財政連繫的多邊協定,並正式回應,希臘政府要求「三方財團」,盡快批準撥出第二期應急貸款,希望暫時解決難題。
January 16, 2012. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met in Berlin, they want the European Union in the March 1, 2012, entered into closer financial ties, multilateral agreements and a formal response, the Greek Government requested the “Tripartite Foundation “, approved as soon as possible, set aside the second emergency loan, want to temporarily solve the problem.

希臘政府因為與對沖基金的談判失敗,削減債務50%的願望,終於落空。
Greek government, failure of the negotiations with hedge funds, 50% of the Greek government’s desire to reduce debt, has finally come to nothing.

因此,希臘政府便不能,取得歐洲聯盟、歐洲中央銀行及國際貨幣基金會組成的「三方集團」,第二期總值1300億歐羅的緊急貸款。
Therefore, the Greek government cannot obtain the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, a “three groups", the second worth 130 billion euro emergency loan.

由於談判雙方的主軸,都不在同一軌道上,最後,談判當然是破裂了。大風暴隨即便刮起了。
As the negotiations the two sides of the spindle, not in the same orbit, and finally, of course, the negotiations broke down. Then they whipped up a storm.

不過,我總覺得,希臘政府還是有最終極的解決辦法,以解決目前的僵局。
However, I always felt that the Greek government still has the ultimate solution to resolve the current impasse.

希臘政府,其實可以馬上訂立法例,立法規定,只要政府在取得一定比率的私營機構同意下,就等同,所有私營機構,自願接受削債50%的條款;
Greek government, in fact, can immediately introduce legislation to enact legislation, as long as a certain percentage of the government in obtaining the consent of the private sector, the equivalent of all the private sector, voluntary 50% cut debt provisions;

並且必須按照希臘政府所訂的條件,把私營機構擁有的,舊希臘國債,轉換成新的國債,而且年期重新訂定為30年,或更加長期的希臘國債。

And must be in accordance with the conditions laid down by the Greek government, the private sector have, the old Greek bonds into new bonds, and re-set period of 30 years or more long-term Greek government bonds.

不過,希臘政府,能否取得足夠的私營機構支持,這真是有待希臘政府或歐洲的領袖的斡旋了。
However, the Greek government, the private sector the ability to obtain adequate support, this is really to be the leader of the Greek government or the mediation of Europe.

筆者認為,如果這一方法,最終都是失敗的話,希臘國債除了宣布違約,已經是別無選擇了。
I believe that if this approach are ultimately fails, the Greek government bonds in addition to that breach of contract, is no choice.

請讀者注意:歐元不會在短期內解體的,因為這是牽涉全球經濟的大事,各國領袖不會坐視不理的。
Note to reader: the disintegration of the euro is not in the short term, because this is a major event involved in the global economy, world leaders will not turn a blind eye to.

不過,歐元匯價波動,卻是難免。筆者會在日後的評論中,說明歐元不會短期內解體的原因。
However, the euro exchange rate fluctuations, it is inevitable. The author comments in the future, indicating that the euro will not cause the disintegration of the short term.

筆者在本站網誌發表的所有內容,純屬個人意見分享,並未對任何人士構成投資建議

My blog published on this site all content is purely personal opinion to share, did not constitute investment advice for any person.

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