(Chapter 13)U.S. concerns, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund rescue package, but the money thrown into the sea? (2)


(第十三章)美國憂慮,歐洲聯盟及國際貨幣基金會的救市行動,只是把金錢拋進大海?
(2)

如果有人對您說:2012年投資買股票,這會是您一生中,唯一一次可以買到最便宜的股票,您會相信嗎?
事實是:不管您是否相信,反正,我相信了。

If someone told you: investment to buy stocks in 2012, this will be your life, the only time you can buy the cheapest stocks that you believe that?
The fact is: Regardless of whether you believe, anyway, I believe.

我可以告訴您,明年最差勁的經濟情況,便是出現歐洲有些國家,實際出現債務違約,並且觸發歐元解體,這一種情況絕對會出現,而且,後果將會是災難性,當這一情況出現時,地球上,每一個人,在他這一世當中,買到最便宜股票的機會,就會出現。

I can tell you that next year the worst economic situation, is there some European countries, the actual debt default, and trigger the disintegration of the euro, such a situation will definitely arise, and the consequences will be disastrous, when the situation when on earth, every person in this world which he, the opportunity to buy the cheapest stock, will appear.

當股票的市盈率,下跌至 5至 6倍時,便是進入市場的最佳時機,比較2008更便宜,因為2008年,那時的市盈率,都是 7至 8倍。筆者的第一桶金便是由這一次難得的機會,賺回來的。

When the stock price-earnings ratio, down to 5 to 6 times, is the best time to enter the market, relatively cheaper 2008 because in 2008, when the price-earnings ratio, are 7 to 8 times. My pot of gold is a rare opportunity from this, a bonus.

為了令讀者,容易理解我的理念,我要向讀者解釋,量化寬鬆的內涵:

To make readers easy to understand my philosophy, I would like to my readers to explain the meaning of quantitative easing:

量化寬鬆是一貨幣政策,由中央銀行通過公開市場操作,以提高貨幣供應,可視之為創造出指定金額的貨幣,也被簡化地形容為,間接增加貨幣供應,大量印刷鈔票。

Quantitative easing is a monetary policy by the central bank through open market operations to increase the money supply, can be considered to create a specified amount of money, has also been described as a simplified manner, thereby increasing the money supply, large print money.

實際的操作,是由中央銀行,通過公開市場操作,購入金融市場上的股票或其他資產,使銀行在中央銀行開設的結算戶口內,增加資金,為銀行體系注入全新的資金流通性。
The actual operation is determined by the central bank through open market operations, the purchase of shares on the financial markets or other assets, the bank opened in the central bank clearing accounts, increase funding for the banking system into the new capital liquidity.

「量化寬鬆」中的「量化」,意思是將會創造,指定金額的貨幣,而「寬鬆」則指減低銀行的資金壓力。
“Quantitative easing" in the “quantitative", meaning that will be created, the amount of money, and “loose" means to reduce the bank’s financial pressures.

中央銀行利用憑空創造出來的金錢,在公開市場購買政府債券;或借錢給,接受存款機構,從銀行購買資產等。
Central bank to use money created out of thin air, in the open market purchase of government bonds; or lend to, deposit-taking institutions, from banks to buy assets.

這些措施,都會引起政府債券收益率的下降;銀行同業隔夜利率的降低,銀行從而坐擁大量,只能賺取極低利息的資產。
These measures will lead to a decline in government bond yields; overnight interbank interest rate reduction, which sits on a large number of banks, only a very low interest earning assets.
中央銀行期望,銀行會因此,比較願意,提供貸款給工業或商業機構,以賺取回報,紓緩金融市場的資金壓力。
Expect the central bank, the bank will, therefore, more willing to provide loans to industrial or commercial establishment, in order to earn a return, the financial markets to ease the financial pressure.
當銀行資金,已經鬆動,或購買的資產,將跟隨着通貨膨脹而貶值(如國庫債券)時,量化寬鬆,會使貨幣傾向貶值。
When the bank funds, have been loose, or purchase of assets, depreciation will be followed by inflation (such as Treasury bonds), the quantitative easing, will tend to depreciate the currency.
由於量化寬鬆有可能增加貨幣貶值的風險,政府通常會在,面臨通貨收縮時,推出量化寬鬆的措施。而持續的量化寬鬆措施,會增加通貨膨脹的風險。
Because quantitative easing is likely to increase the risk of currency devaluation, the government usually facing deflation, the introduction of quantitative easing measures. The continuous quantitative easing measures will increase the risk of inflation.

推出量化寬鬆措施,對實體經濟,不會有很大幫助,但是,對投資市場的意願或氣氛,就會有重大的刺激作用。

Introduction of quantitative easing measures on the real economy, not much help, but, on the investment market will or the atmosphere, there will be a major stimulus.

更重要的是,當年美國投資銀行遇到的是,發生資金流動性危機;但是,歐洲主權債務危機,卻含有,實實在在的債務違約的風險。

More importantly, when U.S. investment bank is encountered, the occurrence of liquidity crisis, but European sovereign debt crisis, but it contains a real risk of debt default.

美國經濟復甦仍在持續過程中,經濟數據的最壞時刻,已經過去了,這是2012年的最好消息。不過,美國的債務,卻似滾雪球般,不斷膨脹下去。

U.S. economic recovery is continuing the process, the worst of the economic data has been passed, and this is the best news in 2012. However the U.S. debt, just like snowball, swelling down.

美國在大選之年,民主黨和共和黨,在債務上限的議題上,爭論不斷,仍然有很大可能,影響投資者的情緒。
另外,在全球領導人的競選週期,國際貿易摩擦,不斷升級,幾乎無可避免。

U.S. election year, Democrats and Republicans, in the debt ceiling issues, the debate continued, may still affect investor sentiment. In addition, the global leader in the election cycle, international trade friction, is escalating, almost inevitable.

金磚四國(巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國)在2011年遇到遭遇到發展的障礙,股市表現,很不理想。因為連續6-7年高速增長之後,它們的經濟,都出現各種各樣的經濟失衡。

BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) in 2011 faced the obstacles encountered in the development of the stock market performance, far from ideal. 6-7 consecutive years because of rapid growth, their economies have suffered a variety of economic imbalances.

匯率的大幅波動、熱錢的到處流動,經濟、金融都會受到扭曲的發展,筆者認為,金磚四國中,在2012年中,中國陷入困境的機會的確不小。
Exchange rate fluctuations, the full flow of hot money, the economy, and financial development will be subject to distortions, I believe that the BRIC countries, in 2012, China’s troubled opportunities were not small.

雖然歐盟及國際貨幣基金組織成員國,已經達成共識,將合共提供 2000億歐元,協助金融市埸,穩定市場的情況。

Although the European Union and the International Monetary Fund member countries, a consensus has been reached, will provide a total of 200 billion euros to help the financial market, stable market.

但是,佔有 IMF最大份額的美國,及其他有意注資的新興國家,已經開始擔心,國際貨幣基金組織,向財政陷入困難的國家,提供的所有金錢支援,差不多是把金錢掉落大海,結果只有失去,不會返回來。

However, the IMF holds the largest share of the United States, and other potential funding of emerging countries, have begun to worry about, the International Monetary Fund, to finance a difficult country to provide support for all the money, money falling almost to the sea, only to lose the results of will not return to.

不過,前任國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的執行董事多梅尼科.隆巴迪卻指出,即使美國反對,亦無法阻止國際貨幣基金組織向歐洲提供金錢支援,因為,國際貨幣基金組織,具有責任,阻止歐洲債務危機,向各國擴散。

However, the former International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive director Domenica Lombardi has pointed out, even if the U.S. opposed, they cannot prevent the International Monetary Fund to provide financial support to Europe, because, the International Monetary Fund, have the responsibility to stop the debt crisis in Europe, spread to all countries.

目前,歐洲債務危機,仍然沒辦法解決。根據銀行分析員估計,匈牙利可能需要向歐洲聯盟及 IMF尋求多達150億歐元,緊急貸款,用以償還,2013年,總值 47億歐元的負債。IMF當局,即將派遣專家訪問團,前往布達佩斯,審視匈牙利的狀況。

So far, the debt crisis in Europe, still, there is no proper solution. According to bank analyst’s estimate, Hungary and the European Union may need to seek up to € 15 billion IMF emergency loans to repay, in 2013, worth 4.7 billion euros of debt. IMF authorities will dispatch experts to missions, to Budapest, Hungary to examine the situation.

為了使讀者更加了解隨後我的論述,下期我會首先向讀者解釋兩個基本的概念:1「信用違約掉期」是甚麼概念(CDS)? 2 「套息交易」或稱「信用違約互換交易」是甚麼概念?

To make my readers better understand the subsequent discussion, the next issue I will first explain to the reader of two basic concepts: 1 what is the meaning of(CDS) credit default swap concept?
2 what is the concept of carry trade?

下期發表:

(第十四章)美國憂慮,歐洲聯盟及國際貨幣基金會的救市行動,只是把金錢拋進大海?
(3)

The next issue published:

(Chapter 14)U.S. concerns, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund rescue package, but the money thrown into the sea? (3)

Advertisements

發表迴響

在下方填入你的資料或按右方圖示以社群網站登入:

WordPress.com Logo

您的留言將使用 WordPress.com 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

Twitter picture

您的留言將使用 Twitter 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

Facebook照片

您的留言將使用 Facebook 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

Google+ photo

您的留言將使用 Google+ 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

連結到 %s

%d 位部落客按了讚: