(Chapter 12)U.S. concerns, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund rescue package, but the money thrown into the sea? (1)


(第十二章)美國憂慮,歐洲聯盟及國際貨幣基金會的救市行動,只是把金錢拋進大海?(1)

2012年,最大的市場動盪根源,肯定是歐洲債務危機。
2012, the largest source of market turmoil is certainly Europe’s debt crisis.
.

投資者必須留意,2012年,最容易出現危機的月份,是 2月至 3月。
Investors should note that in 2012, the month most prone to crisis, in February to March.

這一段期間,有很多歐洲借貸到期償還,到時必須把到期還款的債項,轉換成新的貸款。
During this period, there are many European loans due for repayment, when, due to the repayment of debt into new loans.

在 2月份,希臘、愛爾蘭、葡萄牙及西班牙,這四個國家,便會有,七千億歐元,的國家債務,要更換成為新的借貸。
In February, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, the four countries, will have, seven hundred billion euros, the national debt, to be replaced as new lending.

由此看來,2012年,金融市場的日子會是危機重重。為了解決燃眉之急,歐洲的領袖會被迫進行,遇到極端事件,採取極端政策處理的手段企圖解決難題。
From this, in 2012, the day the financial markets would be dire. In order to solve immediate problems, European leaders will be forced to encounter extreme events, take extreme policies to deal with, the means of attempting to solve problems.

全球金融市場,會在大幅上漲,迅速下跌的軌跡中震盪、喘息、興奮、絕望。不斷互相交替,循環進行。

Global financial markets will raise, rapid decline in the trajectory of the shock, breathing, excitement, despair. Continue to alternate with each other, loop.

銀行為補充資本充足比率而去進行自我保護;資金會在動盪與前景不確定性中,選擇規避風險?還是繼續投機?政府在主權債務困境和金融危機中,疲於奔命。

Capital adequacy ratio of banks away to supplement self-protection; financial turmoil and prospects in the uncertainty, the choice to avoid the risk? Or continue to speculation? Government in the sovereign debt difficulties and financial crisis, exhausted.

2012年,對投資者而言,必須裝備自己,嚴陣以待。
2012, for investors, must equip themselves to meet the challenge.

2012年,第一季度,意大利、葡萄牙分別有佔總債務,三分之一的國家債務,需要續期。
2012, first quarter Italy, Portugal, respectively, of the total debt, one-third of the national debt, the need for renewal.

希臘,要重新安排借入的債款,更達到總債務的40%。
Greece, to reschedule the debts borrowed, even up to 40% of the total debt.

法國要重新安排借入的債款,更達到總債務的37%。
France needs to be re-arranged to borrow the debt, even up to 37% of the total debt.

歐洲主權債務,有超過3000億歐元,要安排發出新債款,償還舊債款。
European sovereign debt, more than 300 billion euros, must be re-arranged to borrow new debt to repay old debts section.

歐洲中央銀行,也有2500億歐元債款到期償還。
European Central Bank, there are 250 billion euros debt due for repayment.

歐洲中央銀行,另外,還有2000億歐元,按揭抵押債券,須要重新續期。
European Central Bank, in addition, there are 200 billion euros, mortgage-backed securities, have re-extended.

歐洲金融市場,須要償還的債款,已經進入高峰時期,但是,以目前金融市場,投資者的情緒,避險意識高漲。要在金融市場上,依靠民間資金支援,應該是極其困難的事情。
European financial market, need to repay the debt, has entered the peak period, however, the current financial markets, investor sentiment, risk aversion high. In financial markets, rely on private financial support, should be extremely difficult.

除了意大利之外,法國被捲入歐債危機的旋窩可能性,十分之高。
In addition to Italy, the French were involved in the debt crisis of the possibility of spin-nest, very high.

目前,法國的總債務負擔,仍然在可以控制的範圍之內,但是,國家的財政赤字,卻非常令人吃驚。
Currently, the total debt burden of the French, still within the range can be controlled, but the country’s budget deficit, but it is very surprising.

假如,金融市場,對法國政府的償還債務能力感到擔心,法國的融資成本,可能暴漲,假如這種情況出現的話,歐洲債務危機,便會推上新的高潮,將歐元置於前所未有的凶險境地。

If the financial markets, the French government’s ability to repay debt are worried about France’s financing costs, may be soaring, if this situation occurs, the debt crisis in Europe will rise to a new climax, the euro placed unprecedented dangerous situation.

假如法國信貸評級,被評級機構連降兩級的話,對法國債務、對歐元都絕對是災難性的。
If French credit rating by rating agencies even lower levels, then again, the French debt, the euro is absolutely disastrous.

同時,希臘可能出現,第二次違約的情況,甚至,可能以某種形式,退出歐元區。這種情況,一旦出現,不僅希臘銀行遭到擠提,其他歐洲國家,也可能遭遇,連環衝擊。
Meanwhile, Greece may be the second event of default, even, may in some form, out of the euro. This situation, in the event, the Bank of Greece was not only a run other European countries may also be encountered, comic impact.

歐債危機中,對歐洲之外國家,及金融市場,最具殺傷力的,當然是歐洲銀行,陷入信用危機。
European debt crisis, the countries outside of Europe, and the financial markets, the most lethal, of course, European banks into a credit crisis.

歐洲中央央行推出,3年期流動性操作(LTRO)及六個國家,中央行的美元互換協議,雖然暫時紓緩了銀行資金的流動性危機,但是並未能實際增加銀行的資金,也未能修復,銀行之間的互相不信任。

European Central Bank introduced the three-year liquidity operations (LTRO) and six countries, the central line of the U.S. dollar swap agreement, although the temporary relief of the bank liquidity crisis, but does not actually increase the bank’s funds, nor to repair, the mutual distrust between banks.

一旦歐洲債務局勢,進一步惡化,個別的歐洲銀行,的資產負債表,勢必再受打擊。我認為,歐洲銀行體系,正在醞釀一場,類似雷曼倒閉的金融危機模式。我唯有寄望於,有關國家中央銀行及政府,及早作籌謀,規避風險,但是,他們的過往表現,卻令我放心不下。

If the debt crisis in Europe to further deteriorates, individual European banks, balance sheets, bound setback. In my opinion, the European banking system is preparing a similar collapse of Lehman’s financial crisis mode. I can only hope that in the relevant national central banks and governments, as soon as possible for planning ahead, to avoid risks, but their past performance made me worried.

假如,歐洲銀行破產浪潮出現了,全世界的中央銀行,都不會坐視不理。但是,各個國家的中央銀行,唯一解決辦法,只能推出量化寬鬆措施,開動印鈔機器。美國、歐盟、日本、英國,同時開動印鈔機器的可能性很大,投資者不容忽視。
If the European wave of bank failures occurred, the world’s central banks, will not sit idly by. However, each country’s central bank, the only solution, can only introduce quantitative easing measures, printing money machine. U.S., EU, Japan, Britain, and the possibility of a great machine printing money, investors cannot be ignored.

在這樣一種情況下,金融市場,可能由絕望的情緒,一夜之間,變成熱火朝天,把投資者的情緒,由失落的一端,擺向另一種火熱的極端。
In such a case, the financial markets may be caused by despair, overnight, into full swing, the investor sentiment, by the loss of one end of the pendulum to another extreme hot.

投資者極有可能,短期內發達賺大錢,也有可能,在極短時間內,把金錢全部輸清光。
Investors are most likely in the short term developed to make big money may also, in a very short period of time, lose all the money, pure light.

從事金融活動的投資者,必須及早裝備,投資技巧。
Investors engaged in financial activities, the importance of early equipment, investment techniques.

(第十二章)美國憂慮,歐洲聯盟及國際貨幣基金會的救市行動,只是把金錢拋進大海?
(2)

(Chapter 12)U.S. concerns, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund rescue package, but the money thrown into the sea? (2)

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