(Chapter 9)Smart investors have the necessary skills, the use of Golden Ratio(2)


黃金分割比率,在投資過程的運用:

Golden ratio, the use of the investment process:

黃金分割比率,在眾多的技術分析工具裡面,可以算是,參考價值最高的一種,也是我個人最喜愛使用的技術分析工具,

Golden ratio in many technical analysis tools which can be regarded as the reference value of the highest kind, but also my personal favorite use of technical analysis tools,

我個人認為,0.382、0.5、0.618 這三個黃金分割比率,特別重要;

Personally, I think, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 three golden ratio, is particularly important;

黃金分割比率的應用、不需要設置任何工具,簡單容易使用,而且非常有效果,尤其是在計算成交量巨大的股票或指數,具有十分神奇的效果,

Golden ratio of applications, without setting any tools, simple and easy to use and very effective, especially in large volume in the calculation of the stock or index, has a very magical effect,

黃金分割比率有高效果的原因,我可以解釋為:因為黃金分割比率,蘊含着宇宙間的自然定律,

金融市場裡,所有的交易,都由人所促成,所以人類的交易行為,也不會跳出大自然的定律。

Golden ratio has a high effect of reasons, I can be explained as follows: because golden ratio contains the natural laws of the universe.
Financial markets, all transactions, led by the people, so the human transactions it will not jump out of the law of nature.

事實上,在我們的生活環境中,到處可以看見,符合黃金分割比率的生活體驗。

In fact, in our living environment, can be seen everywhere, meet the golden ratio of life experience.

例如:我們到處可以看見的香煙包裝盒子、雜誌的長度和寬度比例;普通樹葉的寬度與長度之比例;蝴蝶身體長度與翅膀展開後,兩者長度的比例,也是接近0.618。

For example: we can see everywhere, cigarette packaging boxes, magazines, the length and width ratio; ordinary leaf width and length ratio; butterfly body length, with wings expanded, the ratio between the length is close to 0.618.

美麗的事物如:金字塔、巴黎鐵塔,甚至所謂俊男美女的臉型,或身材,也都符合黃金分割比率,

Beautiful things such as: Pyramids, the Eiffel Tower, even the so-called attractive men and women face, or body, are also in line with the golden ratio,

再從更玄妙的角度來看,地球上陸地的面積,和海洋面積,兩方面的比較,都接近0.618。

More mysterious from the perspective of Earth’s land area, and marine area, two aspects of the comparison, are close to 0.618

人們睡眠所需的時間,與日間生活所需的時間,兩者比較;人類身體的溫度和最舒適溫度的比較,都極度接近黃金分割比率0.618

The time required for people to sleep, and daytime life time, in comparison; human body temperature and the most comfortable temperature comparisons are extremely close to the golden ratio 0.618

學習使用黃金分割比率,很多人,無法把黃金分割比率運用得很好,主要原因是找不到正確的高點和低點,

Learning to use the golden ratio, a lot of people cannot use the golden ratio very well, mainly due to not find the right high and low points,

當我們要運用黃金分割比率,分析指數時,必須採用數據的最高價位,和最低價位,在這個時候,投資者,最容易犯的兩個錯誤是:

When we use the golden section ratio analysis index, the data must be the highest price, and the lowest position, at this time, investors most likely to commit two errors are:

在股價預測中,有兩種黃金分割比率的分析方法:

In the stock price prediction, there are two golden ratio analysis methods:

第一種方法:找尋近期指數趨勢中,指數上升的頂端位置,或下跌的最低位置,用來計算,未來走勢的基礎,

The first method: find the recent trend in the index, rose to the top position, or drop the lowest position, used to calculate the future movements of the foundation,

當股價上升時,選擇上升起點的股價,作為計算基礎,當上升趨勢,到達黃金分割比率時,股價因為受到阻力,持續上升的趨勢,可能發生逆轉。

When the stock price rises, selects the starting point of the stock, as calculated on the basis, when the upward trend to reach the golden ratio, the stock price because of resistance, and the rising trend could be reversed.

當股價下跌時,選擇下跌前,最高的股價,作為計算基礎,當下跌趨勢,到達黃金分割比率時,股價因為受到支持,持續下跌的趨勢,可能發生逆轉。

When stock prices fall, the choice fell before the highest stock price, as calculated on the basis, when the downward trend to reach the golden ratio, the share price since been supported and sustained downward trend could be reversed.

第二種方法:

股價下跌趨勢發生逆轉後,股價運行的趨勢,由下跌轉為向上攀升。處理辦法

舉例:

當下跌趨勢逐漸緩慢下來時,假設某A股的最低價格是10元,那麼,股價有機會逆轉攀升時,投資人可以預先計算出各種不同的阻力價位:

$10×(1+19.1%)=$11.9

$10×(1+38.2%)=$13.8

$10×(1+50.0%)=$15

$10×(1+61.8%)=$16.2

$10×(1+80.9%)=$18.1

$10×(1+100%)=$20

$10×(1+119.1%)=$21.9

然後,再依照實際股價變動情形做斟酌。

上升趨勢發生逆轉後,轉升止跌的處理和部署

以近期走勢中重要的峰位和底位之間的漲額作為計量的基數,

將原漲升幅按0.191、0.382、0.5、0.618、0.809分割為五個黃金點。股價在後轉的走勢將有可能在這些黃金點上遇到暫時的阻力。

反之上升行情結束前,某股最高價為30元,那麼,股價反轉下跌時,投資人也可以計算出各種不同的持價位,也就是

$30×(1-19.1%)=$24.3

$30×(1-38.2%)=$18.5

$30×(1-0.5%)=$15

$30×(1-61.8%)=$11.5

$30×(1-80.9%)=$5.7

然後,依照實際趨勢,演變的情形,再作最後決定。

Then, follow the actual trends, the evolution of the situation, making the final decision.

黃金分割比率,由於沒有理論作為根據,所以有人批評這是迷信,是巧合,但自然界,的確充滿一些奇妙的巧合,一直難以說出道理。

Golden ratio, because there is no theory as a basis, it has been criticized as a superstition, is a coincidence, but nature is indeed full of some amazing coincidence, has been difficult to tell truth.

艾略特的波浪理論,都是採用黃金分割比率的理論,成為世界聞名的波浪理論,廣泛地為投資人士所採用。

Elliott wave theory, are based on the golden ratio theory, as the world famous wave theory, widely used for the investors.

神秘數字是否真的只是巧合呢?

Mysterious figure is really just a coincidence?

還是大自然一切生態,都可以用神秘數字作為解釋呢?

Or the nature of all ecological can be used to explain it as a mysterious figure?

這個問題,只能見仁見智。但黃金分割比率,在投資市場上,無人不知,無人不用,作為一個投資者,不能不深入研究,只是,不能太過執著。

This problem can only be a matter of opinion. But the golden ratio, in the investment market, no one does not know, no one not in use, as an investor, cannot fail to in-depth study, but not too persistent.

能夠快人一步,採取適當行動的投資人士,將會更加穩操勝券。

To quick step, to take appropriate action investors will be more surer of success.

認識五個基本的黃金分割率數值

 

Five basic understanding of the value of the golden ratio

 

黃金分割比率數值:0.191、0.382、0.5、0.618、0.809,可以分割為五個黃金分割點,

Golden ratio values ​​; 0.191, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.809, can be divided into five golden points,

 

根據這個數值,從股價近期走勢中,找出最高點或最低點,作為計算基數,這樣的做法,便能找到,即將出現的支撐位置或阻力位置。

According to this value, from the recent share price movements, find the highest or lowest point, as the calculation base, such an approach, can be found, the upcoming location of the support or resistance.

不過,要注意的是:找尋最高點與最低點的數值,是需要結合,時間運動規律來確認的。

Note, however, is: find the highest and lowest points of value, is the need to combine the time to confirm the law of motion.

因為市場隨時會出現波動,有時,是時間週期首先出現,有時,是價位首先出現,兩個因素,都有可能同時出現。

Because the market will always fluctuate, sometimes, is the time period first appeared, and sometimes, the price comes first, two factors are likely to occur simultaneously.

 

當時間、價格同時出現,那麼,就意味着,將會有大幅度的運行趨勢,極有可能形成,大級別的趨勢移動。

When the time, the price simultaneously, then it means there will be substantial run trend is likely to form, the trend of moving large level.

(A)當股市上升時,投資者最關心的,是上升的頂點,會停留在甚麼位置?

When the stock market rises, investors are most concerned about is the rise of the vertices will stay in what position?

 

事實上,影響股價變動的因素很多,要想準確地,掌握上升行情的最高價,是絕對不可能的事情,

In fact, many factors affect the stock price changes, in order to accurately grasp the highest increase in market price, it is absolutely impossible,

 

因此,投資人所能做的,就是依照黃金分割律,計算可能出現的股價反轉點,以供實際操作時的參考。

Therefore, investors can do, is to follow the golden rule to calculate the stock price reversal points that may arise, for the actual operation of the reference.

 

當股價向上升期間,逐漸脫離低位點,

When the stock price to rise during the period, moving away from the low point,

 

從上升的速度與持久性,依照黃金分割律,它的漲勢會在上漲幅度,接近或達到0.382與0.618時,會發生變化。

From the rising speed and persistence, according to the golden rule, it gains in the rate of increase, close to or reach 0.382 and 0.618, it will change.

 

也就是說,當上升接近或超越38.2%或61.8%時,就會出現相反壓力,有違反上升趨勢,轉變為下跌的現象,換言之,暫時停止,上升的走勢。

That is, when close to or exceeds the 38.2% increase, or 61.8%, there will be pressure on the contrary, in violation of the rise, fall into the phenomenon, in other words, to temporarily stop rising trend.

應用黃金分割律,除了固定的0.382與0.618,是上漲趨勢過程中,相反走勢的轉接點,

Application of Golden Section, in addition to a fixed 0.382 and 0.618, the trend is rising process, the opposite trend of the transfer point,

 

其中,也要注意,這一小距離的相反走勢轉接點,即0.382的一半,也就是0.191,也是重要的依據。

One should also note that this small transfer point from the opposite trend, that is half of 0.382, which is 0.191, is also an important basis.

 

因此,當股市上升趨勢開始時,要預測股價上升的動力及相反走勢轉接點時,

Therefore, when the stock market upward trend began, the power to predict stock prices rise and the opposite trend of transfer points,

 

將即場股價行情,下跌的最低點,乘以0.191、0.382、0.809與1,作為上升的幅度的預測。

The spot market price fell to its lowest point multiplied by 0.191, 0.382, 0.809 and 1, as the forecast rate of increase.

 

當股價上漲幅度越過1倍,走勢轉接點,以1.191、1.382、1.809和2倍,進行計算。依此類推。

When the stock price rises over 1 times, the trend transfer point to 1.191, 1.382, 1.809, and 2-fold, calculated. And so on.

例如,當股票指數下跌趨勢結束時,假設A股票的最低價為4元,(股票上升趨勢的起步點)

For example, when stock indexes decline at the end of the stock’s lowest price assumption A $ 4(Starting point for the upward trend in stock)

那麼,當股價逆轉上升時,投資人可以預先計算出來,各種不同狀況,股價上升的轉接點,

也就是:

Then, when the stock price reversal to rise, investors can pre-calculate a variety of different circumstances, rising trend of switching points.
That is:

 

4×(1+0.191)=4.764元;

4×(1+0.382)=5.528元;

4×(1+0.618)=6.472元;

4×(1+0.809)=7.236元;

4×(1+1.0)=8元;

4×(1+1.191)=8.764元。

投資者計算出數據後,再根據實際股票價格變動的情形,然後採取,是進攻或是退出的決定。

Investors calculate the data, then the stock price movements based on the actual situation, then take, offensive or out of the decision.

 

(B)當股市下跌時,投資者最關心的,是下降的低點,會停留在甚麼位置?

(B) When the stock market declines, investors are most concerned about is the low down, what will remain in place?

影響股市下跌的因素極多,投資人根本無法完全掌握。不過,投資者可以從黃金分割比率,計算跌勢進行中,的支持價位,增加投資人,能夠用低位的價格,買進股票。

Factors that affect stock prices very much, investors cannot fully grasp. However, investors from the golden ratio to calculate the decline in progress, the support price, increased investor can use the low price, buy the stock.

 

當股價下跌時,股票價格,逐漸脫離高點,

從下跌趨勢的速度和持久性,依照黃金分割比率的理論,當下跌趨勢的幅度,接近或達到0.382與0.618時,便會發生變化。也就是說,當下跌幅度,接近或超越38.2%或61.8%時,隨時會發生逆轉。換言之,股票價格,雖然在下跌趨勢中,但是卻出現了支持力,下跌趨勢有可能反轉上升,結束下跌行情的可能。

 

When prices decline, the stock price, moving away from the high point, Downward trend from the speed and persistence, according to golden ratio theory, when the magnitude of the downward trend, close to or reach 0.382 and 0.618, they will change. That is, when decreased, close to or exceeds 38.2% or 61.8%, at any time is reversed. In other words, stock prices, although in decline, but it appeared to support, could reverse the downward trend rise, ending the possibility of market decline.

 

下跌趨勢行情展開時,除了0.382和0.618有支持之外,在0.191、0.809位置,都有可能發揮,強大支持的力量。

Market decline started, in addition to 0.382 and 0.618 with support, in 0.191, 0.809 position, are likely to play a strong supporting force.

 

 

例如,上升行情結束前,(A)股最高價格是$3,那麼,股票價格下跌時,投資人,可以計算各種不同的支持價位,也就是:

For example, before the end of rising prices, (A) share the highest price is $ 3, then stock prices fall, investors can calculate a variety of support price, which is:

3×(1-0.191)=$2.427;

3×(1-0.382)=$1.854;

3×(1-0.618)=$1.46;

3×(1-0.809)=$0.573。

在大多數的情況下,將黃金分割比律,運用於股票市場,投資人會發現,在大趨勢的判斷上,它的有效性,高於使用在個別股票上。

 

In most cases, than the golden rule, applied to the stock market, investors will find that, in judging the trend, its validity, than the use of the individual stocks.

 

這是因為,個別股票的投機性較強,有部分股票,會有幕後的經理人,某些股票,極容易出現急促上升或急促下跌的趨勢,這樣,如果利用,刻板的計算公式,尋找頂點與低點,其中的準確性就會降低。

This is because the strong speculative individual stocks, some stocks, there will be the manager behind the scenes, some stock, very prone to rapid increases or rapid downward trend, so that if the use of a rigid formula, find the vertex and low, which will reduce the accuracy.

使用黃金分割比率,預測股票指數的趨勢,相對來說,會較為準確。雖然,也會存在人為因素,但與個別股票比較,受到的影響,要緩和得多。因此,掌握最高點與最低點的準確性,機會也會大一些。

Using the golden ratio, predict the trend of stock indices, relatively speaking, would be more accurate. Although there will be human factors, but compared with individual stocks, impact, much more to ease. Thus, taking the highest and lowest points of accuracy, the opportunity will be larger.

 

大部份的投資者,每一次,當股市調整至,0.618這一個水平時,把金錢投入股票市場,進行買入或賣出,你這麼做,他這麼做,這個黃金分割比率,就變成了「神奇」數字了。

Most investors, and each time, when the stock market to, a level of 0.618 which, to put their money into the stock market, to buy or sell, you do so, he did, the golden ratio, it becomes a “magic" figures.

從數學到美術到股市,投資,也都成為一門藝術呢?

From mathematics to fine arts to the stock market, investment, have also become an Art?

(B)當股市下跌時,投資者最關心的,是下降的低點,會停留在甚麼位置?

(B) When the stock market declines, investors are most concerned about is the low down, what will remain in place?

影響股市下跌的因素極多,投資人根本無法完全掌握。不過,投資者可以從黃金分割比率,計算跌勢進行中,的支持價位,增加投資人,能夠用低位的價格,買進股票。

Factors that affect stock prices very much, investors cannot fully grasp. However, investors from the golden ratio to calculate the decline in progress, the support price, increased investor can use the low price, buy the stock.

 

當股價下跌時,股票價格,逐漸脫離高點,

從下跌趨勢的速度和持久性,依照黃金分割比率的理論,當下跌趨勢的幅度,接近或達到0.382與0.618時,便會發生變化。也就是說,當下跌幅度,接近或超越38.2%或61.8%時,隨時會發生逆轉。換言之,股票價格,雖然在下跌趨勢中,但是卻出現了支持力,下跌趨勢有可能反轉上升,結束下跌行情的可能。

 

When prices decline, the stock price, moving away from the high point, Downward trend from the speed and persistence, according to golden ratio theory, when the magnitude of the downward trend, close to or reach 0.382 and 0.618, they will change. That is, when decreased, close to or exceeds 38.2% or 61.8%, at any time is reversed. In other words, stock prices, although in decline, but it appeared to support, could reverse the downward trend rise, ending the possibility of market decline.

 

下跌趨勢行情展開時,除了0.382和0.618有支持之外,在0.191、0.809位置,都有可能發揮,強大支持的力量。

Market decline started, in addition to 0.382 and 0.618 with support, in 0.191, 0.809 position, are likely to play a strong supporting force.

 

例如,上升行情結束前,(A)股最高價格是$3,那麼,股票價格下跌時,投資人,可以計算各種不同的支持價位,也就是:

For example, before the end of rising prices, (A) share the highest price is $ 3, then stock prices fall, investors can calculate a variety of support price, which is:

3×(1-0.191)=$2.427;

3×(1-0.382)=$1.854;

3×(1-0.618)=$1.46;

3×(1-0.809)=$0.573。

在大多數的情況下,將黃金分割比律,運用於股票市場,投資人會發現,在大趨勢的判斷上,它的有效性,高於使用在個別股票上。

 

In most cases, than the golden rule, applied to the stock market, investors will find that, in judging the trend, its validity, than the use of the individual stocks.

 

這是因為,個別股票的投機性較強,有部分股票,會有幕後的經理人,某些股票,極容易出現急促上升或急促下跌的趨勢,這樣,如果利用,刻板的計算公式,尋找頂點與低點,其中的準確性就會降低。

This is because the strong speculative individual stocks, some stocks, there will be the manager behind the scenes, some stock, very prone to rapid increases or rapid downward trend, so that if the use of a rigid formula, find the vertex and low, which will reduce the accuracy.

使用黃金分割比率,預測股票指數的趨勢,相對來說,會較為準確。雖然,也會存在人為因素,但與個別股票比較,受到的影響,要緩和得多。因此,掌握最高點與最低點的準確性,機會也會大一些。

Using the golden ratio, predict the trend of stock indices, relatively speaking, would be more accurate. Although there will be human factors, but compared with individual stocks, impact, much more to ease. Thus, taking the highest and lowest points of accuracy, the opportunity will be larger.

 

大部份的投資者,每一次,當股市調整至,0.618這一個水平時,把金錢投入股票市場,進行買入或賣出,你這麼做,他這麼做,這個黃金分割比率,就變成了「神奇」數字了。

Most investors, and each time, when the stock market to, a level of 0.618 which, to put their money into the stock market, to buy or sell, you do so, he did, the golden ratio, it becomes a “magic" figures.

從數學到美術到股市,投資,也都成為一門藝術呢?

From mathematics to fine arts to the stock market, investment, have also become an Art?

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